Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
2010
$24,194,300,546
-$20,285,573,999
$3,908,726,547
-$2,617,788,910
-$34,010,064
$1,256,927,573
-$30,734,176
-$28,658,134
-$63,901,707
$166,013,724
-$61,690,480
-$18,970,773
EBITDA
$1,395,260,881
$1,237,956,800
-$210,452,537
$1,027,504,263
$1,027,504,263
27.89%
25.72%
5.43%
20.80%
2013
2014
MOS 5 PERIODOS
2011
2012
$143,961,400
-$4,821,716,000
$97,591,694
-3,758,304,000
-$2,865,442,160
-$68,858,196
-$73,353,648
-80,783,582
-$60,467,147
-$103,678,000
-$66,161,000
-143,698,612
-133,099,353
-393,519,087
-255,063,717
-$208,722,371
-$169,839,000
-$276,797,965
-$648,582,804
SUPUESTOS
Crecimiento de ventas largo plazo
Crecimiento de ventas perpetuo (crecimi
Costo del Capital Promedio Ponder
Tasa de impuesto vigente
20.00%
3.20%
8.00%
20.00%
PONDERACIONES
2012
2013
2014
Promedio
2015
100.00%
-82.97%
17.03%
100.00%
-84.14%
15.86%
100.00%
-89.25%
10.75%
100.00%
-85.45%
14.55%
$59,453,602,347
-50,805,595,051
$8,648,007,296
-12.39%
-9.16%
-5.78%
-9.11%
-5,418,487,550
-0.19%
-0.20%
-0.12%
-0.17%
-100,589,150
4.81%
6.74%
4.84%
5.47%
$3,128,930,596
-0.27%
-0.17%
-0.35%
-0.32%
-0.79%
-0.51%
-0.47%
-0.34%
-279,657,676
-200,041,548
-0.44%
-0.67%
-1.31%
-0.81%
-$479,699,224
$3,229,519,746
$2,649,231,372
-596,077,059
$2,053,154,313
$2,053,154,313
mpuesto proyectado
2016
22.50%
24.00%
25.00%
2017
2018
2019
-6,502,185,059
-7,802,622,071
-9,363,146,486
-11,235,775,783
-120,706,980
-144,848,376
-173,818,052
-208,581,662
$3,754,716,715 $4,505,660,058
$5,406,792,070
$6,488,150,484
-335,589,211
-240,049,858
-402,707,053
-288,059,830
-483,248,464
-345,671,795
-579,898,157
-414,806,155
-$575,639,069
-$690,766,883
-$828,920,260
-$994,704,311
$3,875,423,696 $4,650,508,435
$5,580,610,122
$6,696,732,146
$3,179,077,646 $3,814,893,175
-762,978,635
-953,723,294
$2,416,099,011 $2,861,169,882
$4,577,871,811
-1,144,467,953
$3,433,403,858
$5,493,446,173
-1,373,361,543
$4,120,084,630
$2,416,099,011 $2,861,169,882
$3,433,403,858
$4,120,084,630
25.00%
Perpetuo
$123,282,989,827
-105,350,481,898
$17,932,507,929
-11,235,775,783
-208,581,662
$6,488,150,484
-579,898,157
-414,806,155
-$994,704,311
$6,696,732,146
$5,493,446,173
-1,373,361,543
$4,120,084,630
$4,120,084,630
25.00%
25.00%
SUPUESTOS
Crecimiento de ventas largo plazo
Crecimiento de ventas perpetuo (crecimiento PIB LP)
Costo del Capital Promedio Ponderado (WACC)
Tasa de impuesto vigente
Tasa de impuesto proyectado
2015
2016
1
2
$64,408,069,209 $83,730,489,972
-$55,039,394,639 -$71,551,213,031
-$5,870,028,179
-$7,631,036,632
-$30,734,176
-$78,517,572
$3,467,912,216 $4,469,722,737
Depreciacin
Provisiones
Diferencia de cambio
EBIT
-$34,010,064
-$68,858,196
-$94,975,436
-$163,046,796
-$28,658,134
-$13,689,458
$3,310,268,582 $4,224,128,287
IMPUESTOS
NOPAT
Depreciacin
Provisiones
Diferencia de cambio
FLUJO DE CAJA OPERATIVO
INVERCIN (CAPEX)
VARIACIN FONDO DE MANIOBRA
-$744,810,431
-$1,013,790,789
$2,565,458,151 $3,210,337,498
$34,010,064
$94,975,436
$28,658,134
$68,858,196
$163,046,796
$13,689,458
$2,723,101,785
$3,455,931,948
-$388,800,000
$0
$0
$0
$2,334,301,785 $3,455,931,948
VAN
$2,113,006,838 $2,831,737,440
VAN TOTAL
$59,240,244,836
TIR
502%
30.00%
3.20%
10.47%
20.00%
22.50%
24.00%
25.00%
25.00%
CAJA LIBRE
2017
2018
PERPETUO
3
4
5
$108,849,636,964 $141,504,528,053 $141,504,528,053
-$93,016,576,940 -$120,921,550,022 -$120,921,550,022
-$9,920,347,622
-$12,896,451,908
-$12,896,451,908
-$103,678,000
-143,698,612
-393,519,087 -$750,147,447
$5,809,034,402
$7,542,827,511
$7,293,007,036
-$73,353,648
-$212,272,366
-$66,161,000
$5,457,247,388
-80,783,582
-$285,519,093
-133,099,353
$7,043,425,483
-$60,467,147
-$359,765,123
-255,063,717
$6,617,711,049
-$1,364,311,847
-$1,760,856,371
-$1,654,427,762
$4,092,935,541
$5,282,569,112
$4,963,283,287
$73,353,648
$212,272,366
$66,161,000
$80,783,582
$285,519,093
$133,099,353
$60,467,147
$359,765,123
$255,063,717
$4,444,722,555
$5,781,971,140
$5,638,579,274
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$4,444,722,555
$5,781,971,140
$5,638,579,274
$77,527,688,491
$3,296,676,696
$3,881,964,157
$47,116,859,705 -$388,800,000
25.00%
D
Deuda $
E
Patrimonio $
Kd
Rm
Rf
Tasa de impuesto Nacional
Tasa de impuesto USA
D/E
BETA
Premio de Mercado
Beta desapalancado
17%
388,800,000
2,245,225,000
83%
4.5%
13.50%
5.02%
20.00%
15.71%
0.2792
0.85
8.48%
0.69
D+
E*
Beta apalancado
$ 67,327,524
$ 1,856,425,000
0.78
Costo de Parimonio
11.66%
WACC
10.47%
0.1476067995
0.8523932005
Kp
K0
Kc
Kp
K0
Corresponde al costo de oportunidad del capital de la empresa, se refiere a lo que cuesta financiarse, inc
deuda; es decir la rentabilidad de los accionistas y los intereses por las deudas.
K0
VA
s
Kc
= Tasa de Corte
La tasa de corte incluye las expectativas, el clima de negocios, el riesgo pais, etc. Muchas veces se utiliz
industrial.
WACC = Kp x Wp + Kd (1-t) x Wd
WP
= PONDERACION DE CAPITAL PROPIO
WD
= PONDERACION DE LA DEUDA
Esta formula se encuentra ajustada para contemplar la rebaja tributaria correpondiente al pago del cred
Antecedentes Generales
Patrimonio
Capital
Deuda
83%
17%
$ 2,245,225,000
$ 1,856,425,000
$ 388,800,000
Crdito
Capital
Tasa
Plazo
Cuota
$ 388,800,000
4.50%
12 meses
$ 42,638,214
Tabla de amortizacin
Periodo
Cuota
0
0
1
$ 42,638,214
2
$ 42,638,214
3
$ 42,638,214
4
$ 42,638,214
5
$ 42,638,214
6
$ 42,638,214
7
$ 42,638,214
8
$ 42,638,214
9
$ 42,638,214
10
$ 42,638,214
11
$ 42,638,214
12
$ 42,638,214
Inters
0
$ 17,496,000
$ 16,364,600
$ 15,182,288
$ 13,946,771
$ 12,655,656
$ 11,306,441
$ 9,896,511
$ 8,423,135
$ 6,883,456
$ 5,274,492
$ 3,593,124
$ 1,836,095
Amortizacin
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
0
25,142,214
26,273,614
27,455,926
28,691,443
29,982,558
31,331,773
32,741,703
34,215,080
35,754,758
37,363,722
39,045,090
40,802,119
Kp
Kp
onistas.
K0
WACC
Kp x Wp + Kd (1-t) x Wd
WACC
WACC
=
=
16% * 83%
13.85%
4,5%(1-20%
Saldo Insoluto
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
$ 79,847,209
$ 40,802,119
$0
o de Capital Propio
esconoce el flujo de los accionistas, asi como su tasa de retorno esperada.
o de Capital Empresa
sa de inters asociada al crdito corresponde a 4,5%
16% + 4,5%
2
10.25%
Kp x Wp + Kd (1-t) x Wd
16% * 83%
4,5%(1-20%) * 17%
BCP 10 =
Supuestos
Crecimiento de ventas largo plazo
Crecimiento de ventas perpetuo (crecimiento PIB LP)
Costo del Capital Promedio Ponderado (WACC)
Tasa de impuesto vigente
Periodo
Ingreso de Explotacin
Costos de Explotacin
Gastos de Administracin
Depreciacin
Intereses Prestamo
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos
TAX (20%)
Utilidad Despus de Impuestos
Depreciacin de activo fijo tangible
Amortizacin Prestamo
Amortizacin de activo fijo intangible
Flujo operacional
Prstamo (17%)
Flujo de la Deuda
TASA DE DESCUENTO
VANPuro
TIR
2014
$ 1,416,513,511
-$ 388,800,000
-$ 388,800,000
13.85%
$ 60,603,893
31.60%
2015
$ 50,020,297,441
-$ 42,744,440,637
-$ 4,558,754,192
-$ 84,629,005
-$ 122,858,570
$ 2,509,615,039
-$ 501,923,008
$ 2,007,692,031
$ 84,629,005
$ 388,800,000
$0
$ 2,481,121,036
$ 511,658,570
30.00%
3.20%
13.85%
-20.00%
2016
$ 66,627,036,192
-$ 56,935,594,928
-$ 6,072,260,583
-$ 112,725,835
$0
$ 3,506,454,846
-$ 701,290,969
$ 2,805,163,877
$ 112,725,835
$0
$0
$ 2,917,889,712
2017
$ 88,747,212,208
-$ 75,838,212,444
-$ 8,088,251,097
-$ 150,150,812
$0
$ 4,670,597,855
-$ 934,119,571
$ 3,736,478,284
$ 150,150,812
$0
$0
$ 3,886,629,096
2018
$ 118,211,286,661
-$ 101,016,498,975
-$ 10,773,550,461
-$ 200,000,881
$0
$ 6,221,236,343
-$ 1,244,247,269
$ 4,976,989,074
$ 200,000,881
$0
$0
$ 5,176,989,956
2019
$ 157,457,433,832
-$ 134,553,976,635
-$ 14,350,369,214
-$ 266,401,174
$0
$ 8,286,686,809
-$ 1,657,337,362
$ 6,629,349,447
$ 266,401,174
$0
$0
$ 6,895,750,621
$0
$0
$0
$0