Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Comentarios
El USD está volviendo a encontrar compradores y la tendencia bajista está en peligro. Esto significa que la renta variable podría volver a experimentar una
retirada, aunque la tendencia alcista en la misma sigue intacta (todavía).
Los diferenciales de los bonos corporativos siguen estrechándose, pero los CDS griegos no tienen muy buena pinta – lo que podría ser una razón más para vender
EUR.
Hoy se publican muchos datos. Especialmente los datos del IPC podrían sorprender al alza tras el IPP tan fuerte de ayer. Esto debería conllevar un mayor refuerzo
del USD hoy, pero la decisión sobre las tasas del FOMC y su Declaración podrían atenuarlo esta noche.
Atención al EURUSD por debajo de 1,4481, al AUDUSD por debajo de 0,8907 y al USDJPY por encima de 90,77. Estos son los principales niveles de ruptura.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario de Mercado
2 120
1,5
100
80
0,5
60
0
-0,5
40
06-aug 06-okt 06-dec 06-feb 06-apr 06-jun 06-aug 06-okt 06-dec
17-12-2008 17-02-2009 17-04-2009 17-06-2009 17-08-2009 17-10-2009
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 47.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
2
10
1
5
0
0
apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09 okt-09
dec-07 feb-08 apr-08 jun-08 aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09 dec-09
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
12 35
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2 5
0
0
maj-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09
feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German
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