Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Attachment
Attachment
WN
-2
-1
White Noise
20
40
60
80
100
LAG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
AC
-0.0625
-0.0049
0.1004
-0.0084
0.0016
-0.0119
-0.0815
-0.1647
-0.0647
-0.0936
-0.0748
-0.1759
0.1354
-0.0503
0.0045
0.1356
-0.0310
0.0977
0.1438
-0.1145
0.1610
-0.0405
-0.0340
0.0385
PAC
-0.0632
-0.0099
0.1099
0.0023
-0.0052
-0.0251
-0.0961
-0.2000
-0.0944
-0.1077
-0.0849
-0.2436
0.1173
-0.0725
-0.0384
0.0663
-0.0824
0.0546
0.1160
-0.2285
0.2226
-0.1300
-0.0254
0.0552
Q
.40201
.40453
1.4635
1.4711
1.4714
1.4869
2.2152
5.2244
5.6939
6.6862
7.3268
10.913
13.062
13.363
13.365
15.598
15.716
16.903
19.506
21.178
24.525
24.74
24.893
25.092
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.5261
0.8169
0.6907
0.8317
0.9163
0.9604
0.9470
0.7333
0.7701
0.7547
0.7720
0.5364
0.4430
0.4982
0.5741
0.4813
0.5440
0.5298
0.4248
0.3867
0.2683
0.3097
0.3558
0.4008
NO HAY AC
TENDENCIA DETERMINSTICA
SE PUEDE PREDECIR LA TENDENCIA
20
40
60
80
100
Tendencia Determinstica
20
40
60
80
100
LAG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
AC
0.9700
0.9400
0.9100
0.8801
0.8502
0.8204
0.7907
0.7610
0.7314
0.7020
0.6726
0.6434
0.6144
0.5855
0.5567
0.5282
0.4998
0.4716
0.4437
0.4160
0.3885
0.3613
0.3343
0.3076
PAC
Q
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
96.941
188.91
276
358.3
435.92
508.96
577.52
641.73
701.7
757.55
809.4
857.39
901.64
942.29
979.48
1013.4
1044.1
1071.7
1096.5
1118.6
1138.1
1155.1
1169.9
1182.6
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
TENDENCIA ESTOCSTICA
HAY TENDENCIA PERO NO LA PUEDES DETERMINAR
-10
-5
eta
Tendencia Estocstica
20
40
60
80
100
LAG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
AC
0.9348
0.8749
0.8002
0.7241
0.6420
0.5669
0.4767
0.3900
0.3260
0.2760
0.2236
0.1901
0.1666
0.1456
0.1509
0.1499
0.1464
0.1397
0.1419
0.1382
0.1344
0.1262
0.0936
0.0546
PAC
0.9950
-0.0238
-0.1537
0.0469
-0.0876
-0.0382
-0.1838
-0.0107
0.1568
0.0614
-0.0952
0.1727
0.1999
-0.0704
0.2149
-0.0385
0.0921
-0.0349
0.0129
-0.1335
-0.0834
-0.0112
-0.1527
-0.0001
Q
90.03
169.7
237.04
292.75
337
371.87
396.8
413.66
425.57
434.21
439.93
444.12
447.38
449.89
452.63
455.36
457.99
460.42
462.95
465.39
467.72
469.8
470.96
471.36
Prob>Q
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
NONSTATIONARY PROCESS
RANDOM WALK PURO
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
-5
y1
10
15
Pure RW
20
40
60
80
100
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
0.9613
0.9279
0.8855
0.8404
0.8003
0.7562
0.7122
0.6714
0.6373
0.6060
0.5774
0.5517
0.5352
0.5106
0.4889
0.4680
0.4417
0.4215
0.3975
0.3676
0.3440
0.3083
0.2780
0.2449
PAC
0.9675
0.0405
0.0024
-0.1282
-0.0255
-0.0141
0.0006
0.0758
0.1852
0.0808
0.0965
0.0661
0.2360
-0.1412
0.0616
0.0091
-0.0866
0.0564
-0.0719
-0.1384
0.2292
-0.2336
0.1121
0.0057
Q
95.22
184.84
267.29
342.32
411.08
473.14
528.78
578.75
624.28
665.89
704.1
739.38
772.96
803.88
832.56
859.16
883.13
905.23
925.13
942.36
957.64
970.07
980.31
988.36
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
20
40
y2
60
80
100
RW con drift
20
40
60
t
80
100
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
0.9720
0.9443
0.9145
0.8854
0.8574
0.8286
0.7996
0.7705
0.7409
0.7112
0.6811
0.6507
0.6204
0.5900
0.5597
0.5298
0.5006
0.4724
0.4448
0.4179
0.3912
0.3640
0.3379
0.3110
PAC
0.9989
0.0538
0.0189
-0.1109
-0.0072
0.0062
0.0218
0.0962
0.2015
0.0942
0.1095
0.0784
0.2455
-0.1288
0.0758
0.0254
-0.0683
0.0788
-0.0476
-0.1101
0.2554
-0.2057
0.1386
0.0339
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
Prob>Q
97.338
190.14
278.08
361.37
440.31
514.81
584.94
650.76
712.28
769.61
822.77
871.85
916.97
958.25
995.85
1029.9
1060.7
1088.5
1113.4
1135.7
1155.4
1172.8
1187.9
1200.9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
RW DRIFT + TENDENCIA
50
y3
100
150
RW drift + trend
20
40
60
80
LAG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
AC
0.9714
0.9430
0.9131
0.8838
0.8552
0.8261
0.7969
0.7675
0.7378
0.7082
0.6781
0.6480
0.6178
0.5876
0.5576
0.5278
0.4985
0.4700
0.4420
0.4146
0.3874
0.3600
0.3335
0.3065
PAC
1.0052
0.0479
0.0143
-0.1157
-0.0118
0.0021
0.0173
0.0922
0.1974
0.0881
0.1029
0.0698
0.2357
-0.1446
0.0622
0.0067
-0.0885
0.0544
-0.0756
-0.1387
0.2302
-0.2338
0.1165
0.0088
Q
97.227
189.78
277.44
360.43
438.96
513.02
582.66
647.97
708.99
765.82
818.53
867.19
911.95
952.91
990.22
1024
1054.6
1082.1
1106.7
1128.6
1148
1164.9
1179.7
1192.3
Prob>Q
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
[Autocorrelation]
[Partial Autocor]
100
50
y4
100
150
200
20
40
60
80
100
LAG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
AC
0.9708
0.9386
0.9032
0.8649
0.8253
0.7852
0.7449
0.7052
0.6665
0.6285
0.5913
0.5549
0.5194
0.4856
0.4534
0.4223
0.3911
0.3615
0.3325
0.3039
0.2754
0.2450
0.2138
0.1818
PAC
0.9785
-0.9180
-0.3149
-0.1466
0.1101
-0.0211
-0.0316
0.1092
0.1151
-0.1099
-0.0134
0.0547
-0.0710
-0.2619
0.0105
0.0199
-0.1416
-0.0825
-0.1905
-0.0162
0.2287
-0.1641
0.1084
0.0496
Q
97.101
188.8
274.59
354.07
427.21
494.1
554.96
610.11
659.9
704.67
744.74
780.44
812.07
840.04
864.71
886.36
905.16
921.41
935.33
947.11
956.9
964.75
970.81
975.25
Prob>Q
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
Nonstationary Process
RW con drift
80
y2
60
0
-5
20
40
y1
10
100
15
Pure RW
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
RW drift + trend
150
100
y4
100
y3 100
50
50
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
-4
-2
Proceso Estacionario
20
20
40
60
t
PROCESO ESTACIONARIO
y5
20
200
20
150
40
60
t
80
100
80
100
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
0.6528
0.4481
0.3362
0.1669
0.0115
-0.1279
-0.2662
-0.3678
-0.3758
-0.3772
-0.3388
-0.2727
-0.0954
-0.0325
0.0685
0.1779
0.1896
0.2452
0.2419
0.1429
0.1571
0.0546
-0.0218
-0.0604
-0.1471
-0.1509
-0.0685
0.0044
-0.0250
0.0006
0.0130
-0.0116
-0.0346
0.0145
-0.0479
-0.1550
PAC
0.6682
0.0382
0.0274
-0.1393
-0.1053
-0.1382
-0.1770
-0.1452
-0.0082
-0.0769
-0.0448
-0.0544
0.2015
-0.1311
0.0446
0.0322
-0.0720
0.0775
-0.0353
-0.1566
0.2257
-0.2244
0.0698
0.0026
-0.1052
0.0926
0.2833
0.1221
-0.1350
0.0976
-0.1443
-0.2681
0.0330
-0.1024
-0.1310
-0.3026
Q
43.912
64.809
76.696
79.655
79.669
81.443
89.213
104.21
120.04
136.16
149.32
157.94
159.01
159.13
159.69
163.54
167.96
175.44
182.8
185.41
188.59
188.98
189.05
189.54
192.48
195.62
196.28
196.28
196.37
196.37
196.39
196.41
196.6
196.63
196.99
200.82
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
y6
20
40
60
t
80
100
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
0.6571
0.4852
0.3547
0.1815
0.0523
-0.0735
-0.1860
-0.2710
-0.2878
-0.3021
-0.2877
-0.2435
-0.1103
-0.0682
0.0043
0.0974
0.1052
0.1847
0.2103
0.1603
0.2128
0.1250
0.0782
0.0434
-0.0608
-0.0875
-0.0329
0.0286
-0.0043
-0.0103
-0.0405
-0.0934
-0.0940
-0.0316
-0.0647
-0.1392
PAC
0.6687
0.0683
0.0213
-0.1388
-0.0790
-0.1099
-0.1247
-0.0874
0.0308
-0.0416
-0.0317
-0.0409
0.1661
-0.1377
0.0075
0.0098
-0.0845
0.0831
-0.0040
-0.0888
0.2694
-0.1628
0.1176
0.0405
-0.0961
0.0764
0.2310
0.0897
-0.1372
0.0624
-0.1591
-0.2644
0.0822
-0.0262
-0.0253
-0.1665
44.49
68.995
82.225
85.724
86.017
86.604
90.4
98.539
107.82
118.17
127.65
134.52
135.95
136.5
136.5
137.65
139.01
143.26
148.83
152.1
157.95
159.99
160.8
161.06
161.56
162.61
162.77
162.88
162.88
162.9
163.14
164.45
165.8
165.95
166.61
169.69
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
10
y7
20
30
40
20
40
60
t
80
100
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
0.9632
0.9324
0.8953
0.8617
0.8343
0.8051
0.7765
0.7482
0.7202
0.6931
0.6658
0.6387
0.6132
0.5858
0.5587
0.5317
0.5040
0.4792
0.4533
0.4266
0.4001
0.3685
0.3408
0.3097
0.2775
0.2505
0.2243
0.2026
0.1778
0.1526
0.1247
0.0984
0.0781
0.0582
0.0375
0.0186
PAC
0.9855
0.1998
0.1349
-0.0240
0.0536
0.0342
0.0246
0.0798
0.1996
0.1200
0.1271
0.1003
0.2945
-0.0480
0.1010
0.0790
-0.0213
0.1305
0.0343
-0.0570
0.3008
-0.1361
0.1508
0.0705
-0.0575
0.1249
0.2789
0.1374
-0.1040
0.1036
-0.1289
-0.2461
0.0946
-0.0168
-0.0187
-0.1524
Q
95.587
186.08
270.37
349.26
423.99
494.32
560.45
622.51
680.64
735.09
785.89
833.18
877.26
917.96
955.42
989.74
1021
1049.5
1075.4
1098.6
1119.3
1137
1152.4
1165.3
1175.8
1184.4
1191.4
1197.2
1201.8
1205.2
1207.5
1208.9
1209.9
1210.4
1210.6
1210.7
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-30
-20
-10 y8
10
20
20
40
60
80
100
Parece no estacionaria, pero podra estar influencia por tendencia estocstica, prueba de races
unitarias no pueden incluir tendencia estocstica, la introduccin de tendencia estocstica hace
difcil identificar si el proceso es estacionario o no mediante races unitarias (nosotros sabemos
que lo es, pero grficamente no, si hacemos la prueba de races unitarios nos saldra que no es
estacionario)
LAG
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
PAC
0.9471
0.8846
0.8161
0.7341
0.6474
0.5636
0.4806
0.4045
0.3407
0.2830
0.2338
0.1973
0.1688
0.1472
0.1340
0.1247
0.1132
0.1077
0.1006
0.0888
0.0758
0.0514
0.0134
-0.0254
-0.0704
-0.1178
-0.1596
-0.2001
-0.2348
-0.2618
-0.2787
-0.2879
-0.2901
-0.2817
-0.2665
-0.2478
1.0256
-0.4560
-0.2252
-0.1878
0.0652
-0.0431
-0.0759
0.0839
0.1726
-0.0214
0.0562
0.1674
0.0967
-0.1494
0.0789
0.1432
-0.0309
0.0024
-0.1804
-0.0840
0.2151
-0.1987
0.0614
0.0205
0.0132
0.1153
0.1758
-0.1257
-0.1668
0.0517
0.0170
-0.0842
0.0941
0.0758
0.1683
0.0844
Q
92.42
173.87
243.9
301.16
346.17
380.63
405.96
424.1
437.12
446.2
452.47
456.98
460.32
462.89
465.04
466.93
468.51
469.95
471.22
472.23
472.97
473.31
473.34
473.42
474.1
476.01
479.57
485.24
493.16
503.15
514.63
527.07
539.88
552.14
563.29
573.08
Prob>Q
-1
0
1 -1
0
1
[Autocorrelation] [Partial Autocor]
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
Procesos Estacionarios
y6
0
-4
-2
y5
Proceso Estacionario
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
80
100
-30
-20
10
-10 y8
y7
20
30
10
20
40
20
40
60
t
80
100
20
40
60
t
80
100
DO FILE:
clear
set obs 100
gen t = _n
tsset t
set seed 2013
*white noise
gen e = rnormal()
corrgram e, lags(24)
tsline e, title("White Noise")
*Tendencia determinstica
corrgram t, lags(24)
tsline t, title("Tendencia Determinstica")
*Proceso no estacionario
*RW PURO
gen y1 = 0
replace y1 = L1.y1 + e if t>1
corrgram y1, lags(24)
tsline y1, title("Pure RW") name(g1, replace)
gen y3 = 0
replace y3 = 1 + 0.01*t + L1.y3 + e if t>1
corrgram y3, lags(24)
tsline y3, title("RW drift + trend") name(g3, replace)
gen y5 = 0
replace y5 = 0.7*L1.y5 + e if t > 1
corrgram y5, lags(36)
tsline y5, title("Proceso Estacionario") name(g5,replace)
gen y6 = 0
replace y6 = 1 + 0.7*L1.y6 + e if t > 1
corrgram y6, lags(36)
tsline y6, title("Proceso Estacionario + drift") name(g6,replace)
gen y8 = 0
replace y8 = 1 + eta + 0.7*L1.y8 + e if t > 1
corrgram y8, lags(36)