Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Una de las principales consecuencias que durante el año 2008 tuvo sobre la
economía española es un fuerte crecimiento del desempleo. Durante el 2008
un gran número de empresas presentaron expedientes de regulación de
empleo (EREs), entre otras, Bridgestone (2.463 empleos), Burberry (250),
Delphi (800), Iveco (1.000 empleos), Marina d'Or (214), Nissan (1.500), Ono
(1.300 empleos), Opel, Pirelli (460), Porcelanas Lladró y Arte y Porcelanas
(275), Renault, Roca (1.900), Ryanair (800 empleos),[30] Seat, Sony España
(275), Torras Papel (500),[31] T-Systems Iberia (550) y Telefónica Móviles (700
empleos)
Hay una discusión latente sobre las razones de que el paro haya aumentado
mucho más en España: incremento de la población activa o excesiva rigidez
laboral. Otros buscan las causas del crash financiero en los salarios de los
altos ejecutivos o la ausencia de eficacia de los organismos reguladores.[33]
Pese al estímulo fiscal, las medidas han tenido un efecto limitado pues gran
parte del dinero se destinó al ahorro y no al gasto.
Las crisis económicas se acompañan de peor salud (por el aumento del paro y
de la pobreza, y por el incremento de la diferencias entre pobres y ricos) pero
no siempre se acompañan de mayor mortalidad. Las crisis económicas no
aumentan las muertes en general, sí aumentan las muertes por suicidio
en todos los países y situaciones. El desempleo se asocia a suicidio. En
España los suicidios están aumentando y son ya la tercera causa de muerte,
tras la mortalidad cardiovascular y el cáncer. En el mundo, el suicidio es la
segunda causa de muerte, tras los accidentes de tráfico, entre los 10 y 24
años. Se puede evitar el aumento de los suicidios, con el rechazo a las políticas
que hacen caer el sistema de previsión social, la educación, la sanidad, la
cultura y el medio ambiente.
Para combatir la crisis global, EE.UU. propuso a que los países del G-20
iniciaran una nueva ronda de gastos, además de establecer una meta de
crecimiento específica del 2%. Estas políticas fueron rechazadas. La cumbre
de ministros de finanzas del G-20 acordaron ejercer políticas monetarias y de
expansión fiscal hasta que el crecimiento aumente. También se acordaron
propuestas para ayudar a los países en desarrollo a través de donaciones al
FMI y mejorar la regulación financiera, incluyendo requerir el registro de los
fondos de cobertura y sus gestores.
Aumento de la natalidad
Philip Longman, en este sentido, escribió en el trabajo The Empty Cradle: How
Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What To Do About It (2004) lo
que sigue: «El declive global de las tasas de natalidad es la fuerza más
poderosa que afecta a la sustentabilidad (de la economía) de las naciones y al
futuro de la sociedad en el siglo XXI».
Para los economistas Paul Krugman y Robin Wells la inercia de las distintas
autoridades económicas y políticas presagia una prolongación de la crisis con
alto nivel de paro y escaso crecimiento si no se acometen soluciones que a
corto plazo no eviten una recesión profunda haciendo que los gobiernos emitan
deuda y gasten más. Para Krugman y Wells, cuando la situación de crisis es
más intensa (momento Minsky, en honor al poskeynesiano Hyman Minsky) los
déficits presupuestarios no solo son buenos, son necesarios.
Dow Jones Industrial Average figures for percentage lost in 1937-1943 vs 2008-
2011 (based on initial 1937 and 2008 DJIA month end amount, respectively)
Although some casual comparisons between the late-2000s recession and the
Great Depression have been made, there remain large differences between the
two events.[128][129][130] The consensus among economists in March 2009 was that
a depression was not likely to occur.[131] UCLA Anderson Forecast director
Edward Leamer said on March 25, 2009 that there had not been any major
predictions at that time which resembled a second Great Depression:
"We've frightened consumers to the point where they imagine there is a good
prospect of a Great Depression. That certainly is not in the prospect. No
reputable forecaster is producing anything like a Great Depression."
Differences explicitly pointed out between the recession and the Great
Depression include the facts that over the 79 years between 1929 and 2008,
great changes occurred in economic philosophy and policy, the stock market
had not fallen as far as it did in 1932 or 1982, the 10-year price-to-earnings ratio
of stocks was not as low as in the '30s or '80s, inflation-adjusted U.S. housing
prices in March 2009 were higher than any time since 1890 (including the
housing booms of the 1970s and '80s), the recession of the early '30s lasted
over three-and-a-half years,[133] and during the 1930s the supply of money
(currency plus demand deposits) fell by 25% (where as in 2008 and 2009 the
Fed "has taken an ultraloose credit stance").[135] Furthermore, the
unemployment rate in 2008 and early 2009 and the rate at which it rose was
comparable to most of the recessions occurring after World War II, and was
dwarfed by the 25% unemployment rate peak of the Great Depression. [
Stock market
Market strategist Phil Dow "said he believes distinctions exist between the
current market malaise" and the Great Depression. The Dow's fall of over 50%
in 17 months is similar to a 54.7% fall in the Great Depression, followed by a
total drop of 89% over the next 16 months. "It's very troubling if you have a
mirror image," said Dow.[138] Floyd Norris, chief financial correspondent of The
New York Times, wrote in a blog entry in March 2009 that the decline has not
been a mirror image of the Great Depression, explaining that although the
decline amounts were nearly the same at the time, the rates of decline had
started much faster in 2007, and that the past year had only ranked eighth
among the worst recorded years of percentage drops in the Dow. The past two
years ranked third however.
Unemployment
The chief economist of the I.M.F., Dr. Olivier Blanchard, stated that the
percentage of workers laid off for long stints has been rising with each downturn
for decades but the figures have surged this time. "Long-term unemployment is
alarmingly high: in the US, half the unemployed have been out of work for over
six months, something we have not seen since the Great Depression." The IMF
also stated that a link between rising inequality within Western economies and
deflating demand may exist. The last time that the wealth gap reached such
skewed extremes was in 1928-1929.[
Three years into the Great Depression, unemployment reached a peak of 25%
in the U.S.[ The United States entered into recession in December 2007 ] and in
March 2009, U-3 unemployment reached 8.5%. [ In March 2009, statistician]
John Williams "argue[d] that measurement changes implemented over the
years make it impossible to compare the current unemployment rate with that
seen during the Great Depression".[
Many jobs have been lost worldwide. In the US, job loss has been going on
since December 2007, and it accelerated drastically starting in September 2008
following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.[169] By February 2010, the
American economy was reported to be more shaky than the economy of
Canada. Many service industries have reported dropping their prices in order to
maximize profit margins in an era where employment is fleeting and either
underemployment or unemployment is a sure factor in life. As of December
2010, the official U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.8%. Whether or not
one agrees that the recession is over, the continued high unemployment rates
are widely seen as being tied to the great recession of the late 2000s.
The analysis of log-linear oscillations in the gold price dynamics for 2003–2010
conducted recently by the Prigogine Institute for Mathematical Investigations of
Complex Systems, led by former Kyrgyzstan president Askar Akayev, has
demonstrated cause to forecast a possible start of the second wave of
recession between May and July in 2011.Note that the team has already
forecasted correctly with a one-day accuracy the start of the collapse of the
silver bubble.
Política monetaria
Desde el inicio de la crisis en agosto de 2007, los bancos centrales han demostrado una
gran capacidad de reacción. Además han actuado a la vez para evitar una crisis bancaria
sistémica y para limitar las repercusiones sobre el crecimiento.[33] Asimismo, la Reserva
Federal estadounidense flexibilizo la política monetaria inyectando liquidez y,
eventualmente, actuó sobre los tipos de interés.[34]