LABORATORIO

Nro. 2

Absorvente: en el compartimiento 3 se coloca un gato donde es imposible que la rata salga viva:
d) Clasificar los estados:
Estado
A
B
C
D
E

La
La
La
La
La

rata
rata
rata
rata
rata

est
est
est
est
est

Descripcin
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento

1
2
4
5
3

A
B
C
D
E

A
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
0.0000

B
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
0.5000
0.0000

C
0.0000
0.3333
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

Q=

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000

0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
0.5000

0.0000
0.3300
0.0000
0.0000

1.0000
0.3300
0.0000
0.0000

I-Q=

1.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-0.5000

0.0000
1.0000
-0.5000
-0.5000

0.0000
-0.3300
1.0000
0.0000

-1.0000
-0.3300
0.0000
1.0000

Inv (i - Q) =

2.6535
0.6535
0.3267
1.6535

1.9802
1.9802
0.9901
1.9802

0.6535
0.6535
1.3267
0.6535

3.3069
1.3069
0.6535
3.3069

Inv * R =

0.9867
0.9867
0.9934
0.9867

P1 =

D
1.0000
0.3333
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

e) cual es la probabilidad de que la rata muera, si inicialmente esta en el compartimien

La probabilidad que la rata muera es de 98.67%

Nro. 2

la rata salga viva:

E
0.0000
0.3333
0.5000
0.0000
1.0000

I=

1.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

R=

0.0000
0.3333
0.5000
0.0000

en el compartimiento 1.

0.0000
1.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.0000
0.0000
1.0000
0.0000

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
1.0000

LABORATORIO

Nro. 2

Ergodica:

a) Describir los estados y hallar la matriz de transicion correspondiente (asumir que la rata se mueve diaramente de
Estado
A
B
C
D
E

La
La
La
La
La

rata
rata
rata
rata
rata

est
est
est
est
est

Descripcin
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento
en el compartimento

1
2
3
4
5

b) Clasificar los estados

A
B
C
D
E

A
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000

B
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000

C
0.0000
0.3333
0.0000
0.5000
0.0000

D
0.0000
0.3333
0.5000
0.0000
0.0000

P2 =

0.5000
0.1667
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.5000
0.5000
0.2500
0.2500
0.0000

0.0000
0.1667
0.4167
0.1667
0.1667

0.0000
0.1667
0.1667
0.4167
0.1667

0.0000
0.0000
0.1667
0.1667
0.6667

P4 =

0.3333
0.1666
0.0417
0.0417
0.0000

0.5000
0.4166
0.2708
0.2708
0.0833

0.0833
0.1805
0.2708
0.2083
0.2083

0.0833
0.1805
0.2083
0.2708
0.2083

0.0000
0.0555
0.2083
0.2083
0.5000

P5 =

0.0000
0.0278
0.1042
0.1042
0.2500

0.0833
0.2083
0.3437
0.3437
0.4583

0.2083
0.2291
0.1944
0.2257
0.1319

0.2083
0.2291
0.2257
0.1944
0.1319

0.5000
0.3055
0.1319
0.1319
0.0278

q0 * P5 =

0.0278

0.2083

0.2291

0.2291

0.3055

P1 =

c) Determinar la probabilidad de que la rata este en cada uno de los correspondientes estados en el dia 5 , si en el

Al 5to da, la rata probablemente est en:

2.77%
20.83%
22.91%
22.91%
30.55%

En
En
En
En
En

el
el
el
el
el

compartimento
compartimento
compartimento
compartimento
compartimento

1
2
3
4
5

Nro. 2

ata se mueve diaramente de un compartimiento a otro ( no permanece en el mismo compartimiento dos dias segundos)

E
1.0000
0.3333
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

q0 =

0.0000

1.0000

stados en el dia 5 , si en el dia 1 se encuentra en el compartimiento 2

0.0000

0.0000

n
n
n
n
n

el
el
el
el
el

compartimento
compartimento
compartimento
compartimento
compartimento

1
2
3
4
5

o dos dias segundos)

0.0000

Problema:
Considere el proceso de nacimiento y muerte con los siguientes tasas medias
Las tasas de naciemiento son :
1

lamda

mhu

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

89.0000
84.5500
80.3225
76.3064
72.4911
68.8665
65.4232
62.1520
59.0444
56.0922
53.2876
50.6232
48.0920
45.6874
43.4031
41.2329
39.1713
37.2127
35.3521
33.5845
31.9052
30.3100
28.7945
27.3548
25.9870
24.6877
23.4533
22.2806
21.1666
20.1083
19.1028
18.1477
17.2403
16.3783
15.5594
14.7814
14.0424
13.3402
12.6732
12.0396
11.4376

5.0000
10.0000
15.0000
15.1500
15.3015
15.4545
15.6091
15.7652
15.9228
16.0820
16.2429
16.4053
16.5693
16.7350
16.9024
17.0714
17.2421
17.4145
17.5887
17.7646
17.9422
18.1216
18.3029
18.4859
18.6707
18.8574
19.0460
19.2365
19.4288
19.6231
19.8194
20.0176
20.2177
20.4199
20.6241
20.8304
21.0387
21.2490
21.4615
21.6761
21.8929

41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66

10.8657
10.3224
9.8063
9.3160
8.8502
8.4077
7.9873
7.5879
7.2085
6.8481
6.5057
6.1804
5.8714
5.5778
5.2989
5.0340
4.7823
4.5432
4.3160
4.1002
3.8952
3.7004
3.5154
3.3396
3.1727
3.0140

22.1118
22.3330
22.5563
22.7818
23.0097
23.2398
23.4722
23.7069
23.9440
24.1834
24.4252
24.6695
24.9162
25.1653
25.4170
25.6712
25.9279
26.1871
26.4490
26.7135
26.9806
27.2505
27.5230
27.7982
28.0762
28.3569
Suma Cn =
P0 =

c) Calcular L y W
d) Calcular Lq y Wq :
e) Costo total del sistema :
L=
Lq =
W=
Wq =
=

LABORATORIO

ento y muerte con los siguientes tasas medias

Cn
1.0000
17.8000
150.4990
805.8971
4059.0814
19229.9513
85690.1368
359158.1453
1415933.4311
5250518.3791
18313179.9009
60079674.6230
185393120.1688
538098630.7269
1469035840.9243
3772290482.5982
9111294736.8038
20699377973.8871
44232015147.5860
88903403599.5796
168074675599.4360
298874186464.1210
499892664342.6070
786443182621.6820
1163751280487.7900
1619776982233.0200
2120569476914.0900
2611271448860.4600
3024501234441.5100
3295017636052.7200
3376478217022.3800
3254410950769.2600
2950414708583.7200
2515915019628.8400
2017953259114.2200
1522398926449.8500
1080309180860.8500
721057496352.7740
452682762137.5610
267313104400.9690
148473440880.9110

77567452578.2795
38116456161.6354
17617640115.0346
7659231285.5231
3132022443.8747
1204666347.5420
435823779.7837
148305514.1514
47468543.5042
14290806.7110
4046782.0571
1077866.8559
270036.6124
63633.0026
14104.0686
2940.4151
576.6006
106.3515
18.4508
3.0108
0.4621
0.0667
0.0091
0.0012
0.0001
0.0000
34210525105812.1000
0.000000000000029230770264619700

29.8988
26.8988
1.5240
1.3710
6.5397

LABORATORIO

Pn
0.000000000000029230770264619700
0.000000000000520307710710231000
0.000000000004399201694055000000
0.000000000023556991871382200000
0.000000000118650076277864000000
0.000000000562106287195729000000
0.000000002504788701515710000000
0.000000010498469232754300000000
0.000000041388824833282700000000
0.000000153476696510811000000000
0.000000535308354498154000000000
0.000001756175166477510000000000
0.000005419183704296190000000000
0.000015729037454485600000000000
0.000042941049176551700000000000
0.000110266956468240000000000000
0.000266330163264751000000000000
0.000605058762175223000000000000
0.001292935873120260000000000000
0.002598714966362080000000000000
0.004912952229747600000000000000
0.008736322682557830000000000000
0.014612247628367400000000000000
0.022988339997390800000000000000
0.034017346325095700000000000000
0.047347328847572500000000000000
0.061985879209840600000000000000
0.076329475820200800000000000000
0.088408500749018600000000000000
0.096315903537327500000000000000
0.098697059065274000000000000000
0.095128938848598800000000000000
0.086242894531965700000000000000
0.073542133944076900000000000000
0.058986328121908400000000000000
0.044500893270159200000000000000
0.031578269480503200000000000000
0.021077066023469800000000000000
0.013232265822796500000000000000
0.007813767943467030000000000000
0.004339993040787510000000000000

Nro. 3

0.002267356386327470000000000000
0.001114173373362210000000000000
0.000514977190807324000000000000
0.000223885230110713000000000000
0.000091551428520532800000000000
0.000035213325250519600000000000
0.000012739464782714100000000000
0.000004335084413136380000000000
0.000001387542089967180000000000
0.000000417731287866597000000000
0.000000118290556621496000000000
0.000000031506878440143800000000
0.000000007893378180572240000000
0.000000001860041679058600000000
0.000000000412272789995413000000
0.000000000085950597540019500000
0.000000000016854480067615900000
0.000000000003108737491417050000
0.000000000000539330490441560000
0.000000000000088009210955394400
0.000000000000013508387581394300
0.000000000000001950208881377400
0.000000000000000264826218040292
0.000000000000000033825409149740
0.000000000000000004063753626302
0.000000000000000000459212723991
1

29.8988
Costo
S/. 50.00
S/. 40.00

LABORATORIO

Nro. 3

n*Pn
0.000000000000000000000000000000
0.000000000000520307710710231000
0.000000000008798403388110010000
0.000000000070670975614146600000
0.000000000474600305111457000000
0.000000002810531435978640000000
0.000000015028732209094200000000
0.000000073489284629279800000000
0.000000331110598666261000000000
0.000001381290268597300000000000
0.000005353083544981540000000000
0.000019317926831252600000000000
0.000065030204451554200000000000
0.000204477486908313000000000000
0.000601174688471724000000000000
0.001654004347023590000000000000
0.004261282612236010000000000000
0.010285998956978800000000000000
0.023272845716164800000000000000
0.049375584360879500000000000000
0.098259044594952000000000000000
0.183462776333715000000000000000
0.321469447824083000000000000000
0.528731819939988000000000000000
0.816416311802297000000000000000
1.183683221189310000000000000000
1.611632859455850000000000000000
2.060895847145420000000000000000
2.475438020972520000000000000000
2.793161202582500000000000000000
2.960911771958220000000000000000
2.948997104306560000000000000000
2.759772625022900000000000000000
2.426890420154540000000000000000
2.005535156144890000000000000000
1.557531264455570000000000000000
1.136817701298110000000000000000
0.779851442868382000000000000000
0.502826101266268000000000000000
0.304736949795214000000000000000
0.173599721631501000000000000000

0.092961611839426400000000000000
0.046795281681212900000000000000
0.022144019204714900000000000000
0.009850950124871360000000000000
0.004119814283423980000000000000
0.001619812961523900000000000000
0.000598754844787562000000000000
0.000208084051830546000000000000
0.000067989562408391900000000000
0.000020886564393329900000000000
0.000006032818387696300000000000
0.000001638357678887480000000000
0.000000418349043570329000000000
0.000000100442250669164000000000
0.000000022675003449747700000000
0.000000004813233462241090000000
0.000000000960705363854108000000
0.000000000180306774502189000000
0.000000000031820498936052100000
0.000000000005280552657323670000
0.000000000000824011642465054000
0.000000000000120912950645399000
0.000000000000016684051736538400
0.000000000000002164826185583370
0.000000000000000264143985709597
0.000000000000000030308039783396
29.8988

29.8988
S/. 76.20
S/. 54.84

(n-s)*Pn
0.000000000000000000000000000000
0.000000000000000000000000000000
0.000000000000000000000000000000
0.000000000000000000000000000000
0.000000000118650076277864000000
0.000000001124212574391460000000
0.000000007514366104547120000000
0.000000041993876931017000000000
0.000000206944124166413000000000
0.000000920860179064867000000000
0.000003747158481487080000000000
0.000014049401331820100000000000
0.000048772653338665700000000000
0.000157290374544856000000000000
0.000472351540942069000000000000
0.001323203477618870000000000000
0.003462292122441760000000000000
0.008470822670453120000000000000
0.019394038096804000000000000000
0.041579439461793200000000000000
0.083520187905709300000000000000
0.157253808286041000000000000000
0.277632704938980000000000000000
0.459766799947815000000000000000
0.714364272827010000000000000000
1.041641234646600000000000000000
1.425675221826330000000000000000
1.831907419684820000000000000000
2.210212518725460000000000000000
2.504213491970520000000000000000
2.664820594762400000000000000000
2.663610287760770000000000000000
2.501043941427010000000000000000
2.206264018322310000000000000000
1.828576171779160000000000000000
1.424028584645090000000000000000
1.042082892856600000000000000000
0.716620244797973000000000000000
0.463129303797878000000000000000
0.281295645964813000000000000000
0.160579742509138000000000000000

0.086159542680444000000000000000
0.043452761561126300000000000000
0.020599087632292900000000000000
0.009179294434539220000000000000
0.003845159997862380000000000000
0.001514172985772340000000000000
0.000560536450439419000000000000
0.000195078798591137000000000000
0.000063826936138490400000000000
0.000019633370529730100000000000
0.000005677946717831810000000000
0.000001543837043567050000000000
0.000000394668909028612000000000
0.000000094862125631988400000000
0.000000021438185079761500000000
0.000000004555381669621030000000
0.000000000910141923651261000000
0.000000000170980562027938000000
0.000000000030202507464727400000
0.000000000005016525024457480000
0.000000000000783486479720871000
0.000000000000115062324001267000
0.000000000000015889573082417500
0.000000000000002063349958134150
0.000000000000000251952724830693
0.000000000000000028930401611423
26.8988

Costo del servidor

Costo de oportunidad del cliente

lamda * Pn
0.000000000002601538553551150000
0.000000000043992016940550000000
0.000000000353354878070733000000
0.000000001797548655609640000000
0.000000008601069353525440000000
0.000000038710294559405000000000
0.000000163871237736986000000000
0.000000652501062924128000000000
0.000002443779089908500000000000
0.000008608845167035540000000000
0.000028525290829165300000000000
0.000088903221110397300000000000
0.000260619641754695000000000000
0.000718619540083163000000000000
0.001863773498173270000000000000
0.004546628537824700000000000000
0.010432491669208400000000000000
0.022515876149652500000000000000
0.045707965106996700000000000000
0.087276466452204500000000000000
0.156748954852886000000000000000
0.264797807188919000000000000000
0.420752152496305000000000000000
0.628840551645837000000000000000
0.884009567001237000000000000000
1.168895325036370000000000000000
1.453772702297820000000000000000
1.700668349880700000000000000000
1.871306734327720000000000000000
1.936745533698560000000000000000
1.885395113869050000000000000000
1.726372156189310000000000000000
1.486855282016870000000000000000
1.204495574435560000000000000000
0.917791325821689000000000000000
0.657786446085367000000000000000
0.443433116107430000000000000000
0.281172963496679000000000000000
0.167695428836118000000000000000
0.094074327441016700000000000000
0.049639025998274000000000000000

0.024636420720722500000000000000
0.011500962945272500000000000000
0.005050019183908090000000000000
0.002085710767143480000000000000
0.000810246884585934000000000000
0.000296062149593422000000000000
0.000101753800197417000000000000
0.000032894297735424800000000000
0.000010002137758847700000000000
0.000002860666801931250000000000
0.000000769562597370705000000000
0.000000194725514064259000000000
0.000000046345118590335800000000
0.000000010374982385938800000000
0.000000002184605234083060000000
0.000000000432674004504526000000
0.000000000080602937195830000000
0.000000000014123526990158400000
0.000000000002327757271698690000
0.000000000000360856432536662000
0.000000000000052617891628347000
0.000000000000007216633740105190
0.000000000000000930975213318174
0.000000000000000112964973200896
0.000000000000000012892932841850
0.000000000000000001384082153408
19.6192