Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1/X
MES
1
2
3
4
VENTAS
226
1,589
3,383
4,930
1/MES
1.000000000
0.500000000
0.333333333
0.250000000
1.2
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
12,403
17,989
20,500
25,748
24,262
29,936
29,489
30,074
32,124
33,210
32,277
36,152
36,377
33,928
36,285
34,864
34,635
34,860
37,905
35,865
0.200000000
0.166666667
0.142857143
0.125000000
0.111111111
0.100000000
0.090909091
0.083333333
0.076923077
0.071428571
0.066666667
0.062500000
0.058823529
0.055555556
0.052631579
0.050000000
0.047619048
0.045454545
0.043478261
0.041666667
0.954464683 C69/C71
0.952394896
0.272756114 RAIZ(C70/B70)
24
SE = STD ERROR
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Suma
de
cuadrados
1 34.30703371
22 1.636709748
Total
23
35.94374346
VER M110
Error tpico
10.71827765
-5.828019957
0.070164463
Coeficientes
Intercepcin
1/MES
0.271396311
2
Pronstico para Y
4.890257691
7.804267669
10.46488548
10.47544348
Residuos
0.528062468
-0.433564847
0.077939642
0.012066715
????????
ESTO SUCEDE PORQUE EXCEL HACE LOS PRONSTICOS EN BASE A LA FRMULA Y = a + bx
Por ejemplo, para el primer pronstico: Y = 10.7183 - 5.8280(1) =
POR LO ANTERIOR, hay que calcular los residuos con la frmula de la INVERSA Y EXPONENCIAL
CLCULO DE MAPE
Anlisis de los residuales
Observacin
PRONSTICO CON LA
DATOS ORIG
FRMULA (CELDA B79)
138.03400
226
2,544.01800
1,589
6,719.93213
3,383
10,921.62448
4,930
14,616.40782
12,403
17,750.45923
17,989
20,392.62452
20,500
22,629.28177
25,748
24,537.17134
24,262
10
26,178.66382
29,936
11
27,603.05732
29,489
12
28,849.07859
30,074
13
29,947.23587
32,124
14
30,921.72486
33,210
15
31,791.89515
32,277
16
32,573.35820
36,152
17
33,278.82110
36,377
18
33,918.71555
33,928
19
34,501.67518
36,285
20
35,034.90047
34,864
21
35,524.44004
34,635
22
35,975.40930
34,860
23
36,392.16181
37,905
24
36,778.42469
35,865
PRONSTICO CON LA
DATOS ORIG
FRMULA (CELDA B79)
Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
138.03400
2,544.01800
6,719.93213
10,921.62448
14,616.40782
17,750.45923
20,392.62452
22,629.28177
24,537.17134
26,178.66382
27,603.05732
28,849.07859
29,947.23587
30,921.72486
31,791.89515
32,573.35820
33,278.82110
33,918.71555
34,501.67518
35,034.90047
35,524.44004
35,975.40930
36,392.16181
36,778.42469
PROM DATOS ORIGINALES
226
1,589
3,383
4,930
12,403
17,989
20,500
25,748
24,262
29,936
29,489
30,074
32,124
33,210
32,277
36,152
36,377
33,928
36,285
34,864
34,635
34,860
37,905
35,865
25,792
0.998217281 C166/C168
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
482.4243226 RAIZ(C167/B167)
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Suma
de
cuadrados
1 ############
22 5120130.995
23 ############
OPCIONES
1.2
LN (Y)
ln (VENTAS)
5.418320159
7.370702823
8.12637036
8.503144976
9.425653344
9.797501841
9.928180165
10.15611223
10.09665632
10.3068254
10.29178107
10.31139966
10.37734313
10.41060631
10.38211793
10.49548064
10.50169886
10.43198117
10.49915971
10.45921723
10.45261279
10.45910249
10.54282512
10.4875102
Promedio de los
cuadrados
34.30703371
0.074395898
F
461.1414715
Valor crtico de F
2.99839E-16
Estadstico t
Probabilidad
152.7593481
-21.47420479
8.70881E-35
Inferior 95%
10.57276546
10.86378984 10.5727655
2.99839E-16 -6.390861457
VLIDO
-5.265178457 -6.39086146
5.828019957/X + 0.5*0.2727561142)
10.7554756
OPI PARTE)
COMPARANDO CON DATOS HISTRICOS DE "Y"
Y (HISTRICO)
226
1,589
37,905
35,865
????????
E A LA FRMULA Y = a + bx
4.890257691
VER B87
a de la INVERSA Y EXPONENCIAL
CALCULADO
MAPE
RESIDUOS
FRMULA
CON VALOR
ABSOLUTO
RESIDUOS
VALOR ABS/REAL
-87
87.46600437
38.79%
955
955.2680002
60.13%
3337.432127
3337.432127
98.67%
5991.374478
5991.374478
121.52%
2213.90782
2213.90782
17.85%
-238.2907703
238.2907703
1.32%
-107.3754778
107.3754778
0.52%
-3118.718234
3118.718234
12.11%
275.4213435
275.4213435
1.14%
-3757.586179
3757.586179
12.55%
-1886.192676
1886.192676
6.40%
-1224.421414
1224.421414
4.07%
-2176.264133
2176.264133
6.77%
-2288.275141
2288.275141
6.89%
-485.3548538
485.3548538
1.50%
-3578.391804
3578.391804
9.90%
-3098.428901
3098.428901
8.52%
-8.784447509
8.784447509
0.03%
-1783.324816
1783.324816
4.91%
170.6504726
170.6504726
0.49%
889.690042
889.690042
2.57%
1115.159302
1115.159302
3.20%
-1512.338186
1512.338186
3.99%
###############
913.6746915
2.55%
MAPE
17.77%
ERROR TPICO
RESIDUOS
FRMULA
CON RESIDUOS
-87
955
3337.432127
5991.374478
2213.90782
-238.2907703
-107.3754778
-3118.718234
275.4213435
-3757.586179
-1886.192676
-1224.421414
-2176.264133
-2288.275141
-485.3548538
-3578.391804
-3098.428901
-8.784447509
-1783.324816
170.6504726
889.690042
1115.159302
-1512.338186
###############
CUADRADO
DIF
PRONSTICO Y
AL PROMEDIO DE
LOS
DATOS
ORIGINALES =
"DIF"
7650.30192
912536.9523
11138453.2
35896568.14
4901387.838
56782.49119
11529.49324
9726403.421
75856.91645
14119453.89
3557722.811
1499207.799
4736125.577
5236203.122
235569.3341
12804887.9
9600261.657
77.16651803
3180247.4
29121.58378
791548.3708
1243580.269
2287166.789
834801.4418
5120130.995
EN LUGAR DE C70
-25,653.95559
-23,247.97158
-19,072.05746
-14,870.36510
-11,175.58176
-8,041.53035
-5,399.36506
-3,162.70782
-1,254.81824
386.67424
1,811.06774
3,057.08900
4,155.24628
5,129.73528
5,999.90556
6,781.36861
7,486.83152
8,126.72597
8,709.68560
9,242.91089
9,732.45046
10,183.41972
10,600.17223
10,986.43511
"DIF"
658,125,437.3
540,468,182.7
363,743,375.6
221,127,758.4
124,893,627.7
64,666,210.4
29,153,143.1
10,002,720.7
1,574,568.8
149,517.0
3,279,966.4
9,345,793.2
17,266,071.7
26,314,184.0
35,998,866.8
45,986,960.3
56,052,646.1
66,043,675.0
75,858,623.3
85,431,401.7
94,720,591.9
103,702,037.2
112,363,651.3
120,701,756.4
############# EN LUGAR DE C69
SUMA CUADRADOS REGRESIN
C167/B167)
SIN
O LINEALES
CIAL
E EL ENUNCIADO DEL CASO
UADRADOS
Superior 95.0%
10.8637898
-5.26517846
REGRESIN