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Métodos Univariados y Multivariables para La Predicción de Energía Solar Fotovoltaica A Muy Corto Plazo.
Métodos Univariados y Multivariables para La Predicción de Energía Solar Fotovoltaica A Muy Corto Plazo.
2*365*600=438,000 2*365*120=87,600
Fig[1]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(4)
Datos Meteorológicos
La potencia generada a partir de los sistemas fotovoltaicos depende de la
radiación solar y otras variables climáticas como la temperatura, la humedad, la
velocidad del viento y la nubosidad
Fig[2]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(4)
Planteamiento del Problema
Serie temporales de:
❖ Salidas de Potencia
❖ Radiación solar
❖ Humedad
❖ Velocidad del viento
Los métodos univariados usan solo los datos previos de potencia PV, mientras que
los métodos multivariados usan tanto la potencia PV previa como los datos
meteorológicos (SI, T, H y WS).
Método Propuesto.
Selección de variables o funciones
CONSTRUCCIÓN
MODELOS DE
PREDICCIÓN SVR ( support vector regression)
SVR ( support vector regression)
Fig[3]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(6)
CONFIGURACIÓN EXPERIMENTAL
JUEGOS DE
ENTRENAMIENTO,
VALIDACIÓN Y
PRUEBA
MEDIDAS DE EVALUACIÓN
Fig[6]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(9)
Comparación de predicción entre métodos univariables - multivariables
Fig[7]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(9)
Comparación de error
Fig[8]:Tomado de [1]
Rana,Koprinska,Agelidis;2016;Pag(9)
Conclusiones
● El método propuesto logro precisión prometedora
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