AÑO

Mes 2021 2022 2023

ENERO S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,701,772.30 S/ 9,660,459.02 VENTAS VILLA CHICK
FEBRERO S/ 6,638,433.17 S/ 7,348,522.64 S/ 9,576,838.02 S/ 14,000,000.00
MARZO S/ 7,349,327.29 S/ 7,954,337.35 S/ 10,230,088.89 S/ 12,000,000.00
ABRIL S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 8,329,681.60 S/ 10,817,940.69 S/ 10,000,000.00
MAYO S/ 7,771,247.02 S/ 9,496,513.81 S/ 11,354,719.04 S/ 8,000,000.00
JUNIO S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 8,963,866.77 S/ 10,521,499.36 S/ 6,000,000.00
JULIO S/ 8,473,828.35 S/ 10,772,916.59 S/ 11,846,506.20 S/ 4,000,000.00
AGOSTO S/ 7,647,595.49 S/ 9,850,762.21 S/ 10,565,027.07 S/ 2,000,000.00
SETIEMBRE S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 9,610,893.46 S/ 10,219,965.11 S/ -
OCTUBRE S/ 7,428,410.26 S/ 10,706,856.70 S/ 10,645,205.54 RO RO ZO RI
L O O
E E AY NI
EN BR AR AB M JU JU
NOVIEMBRE S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 9,704,721.80 S/ 10,066,800.94 FE
M
DICIEMBRE S/ 9,338,706.87 S/ 12,061,109.57 S/ 13,103,013.10
2021 2022
 VENTAS VILLA CHICKEN SAC
00.00
00.00
00.00
00.00
00.00
00.00
00.00
S/ -
L E E E E
E RO E RO ZO RI AY
O
NI
O LIO S TO B R UB R BR BR
EN BR AR AB M JU JU GO E M T M M
M TI IE CI
E
FE A OC OV DI
SE N

2021 2022 2023

CÁLCULO DEL PRONÓSTICO DE VENTAS EN RESTAURANTE

AÑO MES t VENTAS PM(3) PM(5)

Jan-21 enero 1 S/ 6,647,332.16

Feb-21 febrero 2 S/ 6,638,433.17
Mar-21 marzo 3 S/ 7,349,327.29
Apr-21 abril 4 S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 6,878,364.21
May-21 mayo 5 S/ 7,771,247.02 S/ 6,988,817.22
Jun-21 junio 6 S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 7,366,421.84 S/ 7,077,006.17
2021

Jul-21 julio 7 S/ 8,473,828.35 S/ 7,447,370.24 S/ 7,265,974.24

Aug-21 agosto 8 S/ 7,647,595.49 S/ 7,945,749.29 S/ 7,633,053.27
Sep-21 setiembre 9 S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 7,904,532.11 S/ 7,692,706.91
Oct-21 octubre 10 S/ 7,428,410.26 S/ 7,686,206.55 S/ 7,684,407.83
Nov-21 noviembre 11 S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 7,337,733.85 S/ 7,615,840.48
Dec-21 diciembre 12 S/ 9,338,706.87 S/ 7,212,198.49 S/ 7,551,603.86
Jan-22 enero 13 S/ 6,701,772.30 S/ 8,012,702.18 S/ 7,724,579.56
Feb-22 febrero 14 S/ 7,348,522.64 S/ 7,770,489.52 S/ 7,535,414.93
Mar-22 marzo 15 S/ 7,954,337.35 S/ 7,796,333.94 S/ 7,617,680.29
Apr-22 abril 16 S/ 8,329,681.60 S/ 7,334,877.43 S/ 7,722,865.71
May-22 mayo 17 S/ 9,496,513.81 S/ 7,877,513.86 S/ 7,934,604.15
Jun-22 junio 18 S/ 8,963,866.77 S/ 8,593,510.92 S/ 7,966,165.54
2022

Jul-22 julio 19 S/ 10,772,916.59 S/ 8,930,020.73 S/ 8,418,584.43

Aug-22 agosto 20 S/ 9,850,762.21 S/ 9,744,432.39 S/ 9,103,463.22
Sep-22 setiembre 21 S/ 9,610,893.46 S/ 9,862,515.19 S/ 9,482,748.20
Oct-22 octubre 22 S/ 10,706,856.70 S/ 10,078,190.75 S/ 9,738,990.57
Nov-22 noviembre 23 S/ 9,704,721.80 S/ 10,056,170.79 S/ 9,981,059.15
Dec-22 diciembre 24 S/ 12,061,109.57 S/ 10,007,490.65 S/ 10,129,230.15
Jan-23 enero 25 S/ 9,660,459.02 S/ 10,824,229.36 S/ 10,386,868.75
Feb-23 febrero 26 S/ 9,576,838.02 S/ 10,475,430.13 S/ 10,348,808.11
Mar-23 marzo 27 S/ 10,230,088.89 S/ 10,432,802.20 S/ 10,341,997.02
Apr-23 abril 28 S/ 10,817,940.69 S/ 9,822,461.98 S/ 10,246,643.46
May-23 mayo 29 S/ 11,354,719.04 S/ 10,208,289.20 S/ 10,469,287.24
Jun-23 junio 30 S/ 10,521,499.36 S/ 10,800,916.21 S/ 10,328,009.13
2023

Jul-23 julio 31 S/ 11,846,506.20 S/ 10,898,053.03 S/ 10,500,217.20

Aug-23 agosto 32 S/ 10,565,027.07 S/ 11,240,908.20 S/ 10,954,150.84
Sep-23 setiembre 33 S/ 10,219,965.11 S/ 10,977,677.54 S/ 11,021,138.47
2
Oct-23 octubre 34 S/ 10,645,205.54 S/ 10,877,166.13 S/ 10,901,543.36
Nov-23 noviembre 35 S/ 10,066,800.94 S/ 10,476,732.57 S/ 10,759,640.66
Dec-23 diciembre 36 S/ 13,103,013.10 S/ 10,310,657.20 S/ 10,668,700.97
2024 Jan-24 enero 37 S/ 11,271,673.19 S/ 10,920,002.35
 PMP(3) PMP(5) Suavización exponencial Suavización exponencial
(0.2,0.3,0.5) (0.05,0.10,0.20,0.25,0.40) (a=0.3) (a=0.5)
S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,647,332.16
S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,647,332.16
S/ 6,644,662.46 S/ 6,642,882.67
S/ 6,995,660.03 S/ 6,856,061.91 S/ 6,996,104.98
S/ 7,021,830.43 S/ 6,892,850.70 S/ 6,987,398.09
S/ 7,449,096.33 S/ 7,319,246.99 S/ 7,156,369.60 S/ 7,379,322.56
S/ 7,523,198.59 S/ 7,442,273.38 S/ 7,287,110.46 S/ 7,485,747.52
S/ 8,068,815.33 S/ 7,907,159.35 S/ 7,643,125.83 S/ 7,979,787.94
S/ 7,884,380.75 S/ 7,821,989.04 S/ 7,644,466.73 S/ 7,813,691.71
S/ 7,457,642.22 S/ 7,529,322.46 S/ 7,432,285.45 S/ 7,375,443.76
S/ 7,324,882.97 S/ 7,462,173.61 S/ 7,431,122.89 S/ 7,401,927.01
S/ 7,251,456.94 S/ 7,341,388.45 S/ 7,383,082.84 S/ 7,336,458.20
S/ 8,336,332.31 S/ 8,115,011.50 S/ 7,969,770.05 S/ 8,337,582.54
S/ 7,606,696.09 S/ 7,559,284.33 S/ 7,589,370.73 S/ 7,519,677.42
S/ 7,552,534.38 S/ 7,581,112.96 S/ 7,517,116.30 S/ 7,434,100.03
S/ 7,522,079.93 S/ 7,656,640.22 S/ 7,648,282.62 S/ 7,694,218.69
S/ 8,020,846.53 S/ 7,927,274.08 S/ 7,852,702.31 S/ 8,011,950.14
S/ 8,838,028.86 S/ 8,541,834.27 S/ 8,345,845.76 S/ 8,754,231.98
S/ 8,996,823.85 S/ 8,788,471.35 S/ 8,531,252.06 S/ 8,859,049.37
S/ 9,974,921.09 S/ 9,680,121.12 S/ 9,203,751.42 S/ 9,815,982.98
S/ 9,950,029.44 S/ 9,792,442.85 S/ 9,397,854.66 S/ 9,833,372.60
S/ 9,915,258.71 S/ 9,832,843.62 S/ 9,461,766.30 S/ 9,722,133.03
S/ 10,206,848.83 S/ 10,181,103.48 S/ 9,835,293.42 S/ 10,214,494.86
S/ 9,986,596.60 S/ 10,004,503.64 S/ 9,796,121.93 S/ 9,959,608.33
S/ 11,083,342.67 S/ 10,845,623.07 S/ 10,475,618.22 S/ 11,010,358.95
S/ 10,389,506.74 S/ 10,371,635.70 S/ 10,231,070.46 S/ 10,335,408.99
S/ 10,098,778.63 S/ 10,163,886.89 S/ 10,034,800.73 S/ 9,956,123.50
S/ 9,920,187.66 S/ 10,109,683.91 S/ 10,093,387.18 S/ 10,093,106.20
S/ 10,393,364.62 S/ 10,369,167.48 S/ 10,310,753.23 S/ 10,455,523.44
S/ 10,968,759.50 S/ 10,733,097.32 S/ 10,623,942.97 S/ 10,905,121.24
S/ 10,830,753.53 S/ 10,712,718.43 S/ 10,593,209.89 S/ 10,713,310.30
S/ 11,350,646.72 S/ 11,233,219.64 S/ 10,969,198.78 S/ 11,279,908.25
S/ 10,940,765.27 S/ 10,968,306.19 S/ 10,847,947.27 S/ 10,922,467.66
S/ 10,648,791.92 S/ 10,718,429.94 S/ 10,659,552.62 S/ 10,571,216.39
S/ 10,501,597.72 S/ 10,636,804.50 S/ 10,655,248.50 S/ 10,608,210.96
S/ 10,270,955.15 S/ 10,380,842.80 S/ 10,478,714.23 S/ 10,337,505.95
S/ 11,700,587.94 S/ 11,437,194.45 S/ 11,266,003.89 S/ 11,720,259.53
a+b*periodo a= 6526948.3
b= 142963.7
Suavización exponencial Regresión
(a=0.7) Lineal Ventas 2021 a 2023
S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,669,911.99
S/14,000,000
S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,812,875.67
S/ 6,641,102.87 S/ 6,955,839.34 S/13,000,000

S/ 7,136,859.96 S/ 7,098,803.02
S/12,000,000
S/ 7,026,141.84 S/ 7,241,766.69
S/ 7,547,715.46 S/ 7,384,730.37 S/11,000,000

S/ 7,578,835.38 S/ 7,527,694.04 S/10,000,000

S/ 8,205,330.46 S/ 7,670,657.72

VENTAS
S/9,000,000
S/ 7,814,915.98 S/ 7,813,621.40
S/ 7,200,511.85 S/ 7,956,585.07 S/8,000,000
S/ 7,360,040.74 S/ 8,099,548.75
S/7,000,000
S/ 7,297,704.80 S/ 8,242,512.42
S/ 8,726,406.25 S/ 8,385,476.10 S/6,000,000
S/ 7,309,162.48 S/ 8,528,439.77
S/5,000,000
S/ 7,336,714.59 S/ 8,671,403.45
S/ 7,769,050.52 S/ 8,814,367.12 S/4,000,000
Nov-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Oct-2
S/ 8,161,492.28 S/ 8,957,330.80
MESES
S/ 9,096,007.35 S/ 9,100,294.48
S/ 9,003,508.94 S/ 9,243,258.15
S/ 10,242,094.30 S/ 9,386,221.83
S/ 9,968,161.84 S/ 9,529,185.50
S/ 9,718,073.97 S/ 9,672,149.18
S/ 10,410,221.88 S/ 9,815,112.85
S/ 9,916,371.82 S/ 9,958,076.53
S/ 11,417,688.25 S/ 10,101,040.20
S/ 10,187,627.79 S/ 10,244,003.88
S/ 9,760,074.95 S/ 10,386,967.56
S/ 10,089,084.71 S/ 10,529,931.23
S/ 10,599,283.90 S/ 10,672,894.91
S/ 11,128,088.50 S/ 10,815,858.58
S/ 10,703,476.10 S/ 10,958,822.26
S/ 11,503,597.17 S/ 11,101,785.93
S/ 10,846,598.10 S/ 11,244,749.61
S/ 10,407,955.01 S/ 11,387,713.28
S/ 10,574,030.38 S/ 11,530,676.96
S/ 10,218,969.77 S/ 11,673,640.64
S/ 12,237,800.10 S/ 11,816,604.31
 Ventas 2021 a 2023

Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24

MESES
 MES 2021 2022

enero S/ 6,647,332.16 S/ 6,701,772.30

febrero S/ 6,638,433.17 S/ 7,348,522.64
marzo S/ 7,349,327.29 S/ 7,954,337.35
abril S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 8,329,681.60
mayo S/ 7,771,247.02 S/ 9,496,513.81
junio S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 8,963,866.77
julio S/ 8,473,828.35 S/ 10,772,916.59
agosto S/ 7,647,595.49 S/ 9,850,762.21
setiembre S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 9,610,893.46
octubre S/ 7,428,410.26 S/ 10,706,856.70
noviembre S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 9,704,721.80
diciembre S/ 9,338,706.87 S/ 12,061,109.57

PROMEDIO MÓVIL CON 3

AÑO MES t VENTAS
Pronóstico Error

Jan-21 enero 1 S/ 6,647,332.16

Feb-21 febrero 2 S/ 6,638,433.17
Mar-21 marzo 3 S/ 7,349,327.29
Apr-21 abril 4 S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 6,878,364.21 S/ 100,327.00
May-21 mayo 5 S/ 7,771,247.02 S/ 6,988,817.22 S/ 782,429.80
Jun-21 junio 6 S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 7,366,421.84 S/ 225,750.65
2021

Jul-21 julio 7 S/ 8,473,828.35 S/ 7,447,370.24 S/ 1,026,458.11

Aug-21 agosto 8 S/ 7,647,595.49 S/ 7,945,749.29 -S/ 298,153.80
Sep-21 setiembre 9 S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 7,904,532.11 -S/ 967,336.31
Oct-21 octubre 10 S/ 7,428,410.26 S/ 7,686,206.55 -S/ 257,796.29
Nov-21 noviembre 11 S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 7,337,733.85 -S/ 66,744.45
Dec-21 diciembre 12 S/ 9,338,706.87 S/ 7,212,198.49 S/ 2,126,508.38
Jan-22 enero 13 S/ 6,701,772.30 S/ 8,012,702.18 -S/ 1,310,929.88
Feb-22 febrero 14 S/ 7,348,522.64 S/ 7,770,489.52 -S/ 421,966.88
Mar-22 marzo 15 S/ 7,954,337.35 S/ 7,796,333.94 S/ 158,003.41
Apr-22 abril 16 S/ 8,329,681.60 S/ 7,334,877.43 S/ 994,804.17
May-22 mayo 17 S/ 9,496,513.81 S/ 7,877,513.86 S/ 1,618,999.95
Jun-22 junio 18 S/ 8,963,866.77 S/ 8,593,510.92 S/ 370,355.85
2022

Jul-22 julio 19 S/ 10,772,916.59 S/ 8,930,020.73 S/ 1,842,895.86

2022
Aug-22 agosto 20 S/ 9,850,762.21 S/ 9,744,432.39 S/ 106,329.82
Sep-22 setiembre 21 S/ 9,610,893.46 S/ 9,862,515.19 -S/ 251,621.73
Oct-22 octubre 22 S/ 10,706,856.70 S/ 10,078,190.75 S/ 628,665.95
Nov-22 noviembre 23 S/ 9,704,721.80 S/ 10,056,170.79 -S/ 351,448.99
Dec-22 diciembre 24 S/ 12,061,109.57 S/ 10,007,490.65 S/ 2,053,618.92
Jan-23 enero 25 S/ 9,660,459.02 S/ 10,824,229.36 -S/ 1,163,770.34
Feb-23 febrero 26 S/ 9,576,838.02 S/ 10,475,430.13 -S/ 898,592.11
Mar-23 marzo 27 S/ 10,230,088.89 S/ 10,432,802.20 -S/ 202,713.31
Apr-23 abril 28 S/ 10,817,940.69 S/ 9,822,461.98 S/ 995,478.71
May-23 mayo 29 S/ 11,354,719.04 S/ 10,208,289.20 S/ 1,146,429.84
Jun-23 junio 30 S/ 10,521,499.36 S/ 10,800,916.21 -S/ 279,416.85
2023

Jul-23 julio 31 S/ 11,846,506.20 S/ 10,898,053.03 S/ 948,453.17

Aug-23 agosto 32 S/ 10,565,027.07 S/ 11,240,908.20 -S/ 675,881.13
Sep-23 setiembre 33 S/ 10,219,965.11 S/ 10,977,677.54 -S/ 757,712.43
Oct-23 octubre 34 S/ 10,645,205.54 S/ 10,877,166.13 -S/ 231,960.59
Nov-23 noviembre 35 S/ 10,066,800.94 S/ 10,476,732.57 -S/ 409,931.63
Dec-23 diciembre 36 S/ 13,103,013.10 S/ 10,310,657.20 S/ 2,792,355.90
2024 Jan-24 enero 37 S/ 11,271,673.19
Bias (MD)
S/ 283,996.63

PROMEDIO MÓVIL CON 3

AÑO MES t VENTAS
Pronóstico Error

Jan-21 enero 1 S/ 6,647,332.16

Feb-21 febrero 2 S/ 6,638,433.17 S/ 6,647,332.16 -S/ 8,898.99
Mar-21 marzo 3 S/ 7,349,327.29 S/ 6,638,433.17 S/ 710,894.12
Apr-21 abril 4 S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 7,349,327.29 -S/ 370,636.08
May-21 mayo 5 S/ 7,771,247.02 S/ 6,978,691.21 S/ 792,555.81
Jun-21 junio 6 S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 7,771,247.02 -S/ 179,074.53
2021

Jul-21 julio 7 S/ 8,473,828.35 S/ 7,592,172.49 S/ 881,655.86

Aug-21 agosto 8 S/ 7,647,595.49 S/ 8,473,828.35 -S/ 826,232.86
Sep-21 setiembre 9 S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 7,647,595.49 -S/ 710,399.69
Oct-21 octubre 10 S/ 7,428,410.26 S/ 6,937,195.80 S/ 491,214.46
Nov-21 noviembre 11 S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 7,428,410.26 -S/ 157,420.86
Dec-21 diciembre 12 S/ 9,338,706.87 S/ 7,270,989.40 S/ 2,067,717.47
Jan-22 enero 13 S/ 6,701,772.30 S/ 9,338,706.87 -S/ 2,636,934.57
 Feb-22 febrero 14 S/ 7,348,522.64 S/ 6,701,772.30 S/ 646,750.34
Mar-22 marzo 15 S/ 7,954,337.35 S/ 7,348,522.64 S/ 605,814.71
Apr-22 abril 16 S/ 8,329,681.60 S/ 7,954,337.35 S/ 375,344.25
May-22 mayo 17 S/ 9,496,513.81 S/ 8,329,681.60 S/ 1,166,832.21
Jun-22 junio 18 S/ 8,963,866.77 S/ 9,496,513.81 -S/ 532,647.04
2022

Jul-22 julio 19 S/ 10,772,916.59 S/ 8,963,866.77 S/ 1,809,049.82

Aug-22 agosto 20 S/ 9,850,762.21 S/ 10,772,916.59 -S/ 922,154.38
Sep-22 setiembre 21 S/ 9,610,893.46 S/ 9,850,762.21 -S/ 239,868.75
Oct-22 octubre 22 S/ 10,706,856.70 S/ 9,610,893.46 S/ 1,095,963.24
Nov-22 noviembre 23 S/ 9,704,721.80 S/ 10,706,856.70 -S/ 1,002,134.90
Dec-22 diciembre 24 S/ 12,061,109.57 S/ 9,704,721.80 S/ 2,356,387.77
Jan-23 enero 25 S/ 9,660,459.02 S/ 12,061,109.57 -S/ 2,400,650.55
Feb-23 febrero 26 S/ 9,576,838.02 S/ 9,660,459.02 -S/ 83,621.00
Mar-23 marzo 27 S/ 10,230,088.89 S/ 9,576,838.02 S/ 653,250.87
Apr-23 abril 28 S/ 10,817,940.69 S/ 10,230,088.89 S/ 587,851.80
May-23 mayo 29 S/ 11,354,719.04 S/ 10,817,940.69 S/ 536,778.35
Jun-23 junio 30 S/ 10,521,499.36 S/ 11,354,719.04 -S/ 833,219.68
2023

Jul-23 julio 31 S/ 11,846,506.20 S/ 10,521,499.36 S/ 1,325,006.84

Aug-23 agosto 32 S/ 10,565,027.07 S/ 11,846,506.20 -S/ 1,281,479.13
Sep-23 setiembre 33 S/ 10,219,965.11 S/ 10,565,027.07 -S/ 345,061.96
Oct-23 octubre 34 S/ 10,645,205.54 S/ 10,219,965.11 S/ 425,240.43
Nov-23 noviembre 35 S/ 10,066,800.94 S/ 10,645,205.54 -S/ 578,404.60
Dec-23 diciembre 36 S/ 13,103,013.10 S/ 10,066,800.94 S/ 3,036,212.16
2024 Jan-24 enero 37 S/ 13,103,013.10
Bias (MD)
184448.03
 2023 Ventas 2021 a 2023
S/14,000,000
S/ 9,660,459.02
S/13,000,000
S/ 9,576,838.02
S/12,000,000
S/ 10,230,088.89 S/11,000,000
S/ 10,817,940.69 S/10,000,000
S/ 11,354,719.04 VENTAS S/9,000,000
S/ 10,521,499.36 S/8,000,000
S/7,000,000
S/ 11,846,506.20
S/6,000,000
S/ 10,565,027.07
S/5,000,000
S/ 10,219,965.11 S/4,000,000
S/ 10,645,205.54 20 21 21 21 21 r-22 l-22 t-22 23 23 23 23 24
ov- eb- un- ep- e c- a J u c a n- a y- ug- ov- eb-
S/ 10,066,800.94 N F J S D M O J M A N F
S/ 13,103,013.10 MESES

PROMEDIO MÓVIL CON 3 PERIODOS PROMEDIO MÓVIL CO

Valor Absoluto del Erro de pronóstico al
Error porcentual Pronóstico Error
error cuadrado

S/ 100,327.00 S/ 10,065,507,597.85 1.4%

S/ 782,429.80 S/ 612,196,386,711.84 10.1%
S/ 225,750.65 S/ 50,963,355,975.42 3.0% S/ 7,077,006.17 S/ 515,166.32
S/ 1,026,458.11 S/ 1,053,616,251,584.77 12.1% S/ 7,265,974.24 S/ 1,207,854.11
S/ 298,153.80 S/ 88,895,686,466.75 3.9% S/ 7,633,053.27 S/ 14,542.22
S/ 967,336.31 S/ 935,739,536,644.42 13.9% S/ 7,692,706.91 -S/ 755,511.11
S/ 257,796.29 S/ 66,458,925,419.12 3.5% S/ 7,684,407.83 -S/ 255,997.57
S/ 66,744.45 S/ 4,454,821,605.80 0.9% S/ 7,615,840.48 -S/ 344,851.08
S/ 2,126,508.38 S/ 4,522,037,904,386.94 22.8% S/ 7,551,603.86 S/ 1,787,103.01
S/ 1,310,929.88 S/ 1,718,537,141,537.28 19.6% S/ 7,724,579.56 -S/ 1,022,807.26
S/ 421,966.88 S/ 178,056,050,630.05 5.7% S/ 7,535,414.93 -S/ 186,892.29
S/ 158,003.41 S/ 24,965,078,624.98 2.0% S/ 7,617,680.29 S/ 336,657.06
S/ 994,804.17 S/ 989,635,336,649.39 11.9% S/ 7,722,865.71 S/ 606,815.89
S/ 1,618,999.95 S/ 2,621,160,827,306.67 17.0% S/ 7,934,604.15 S/ 1,561,909.66
S/ 370,355.85 S/ 137,163,455,629.22 4.1% S/ 7,966,165.54 S/ 997,701.23
S/ 1,842,895.86 S/ 3,396,265,163,091.11 17.1% S/ 8,418,584.43 S/ 2,354,332.16
 S/ 106,329.82 S/ 11,306,030,621.23 1.1% S/ 9,103,463.22 S/ 747,298.99
S/ 251,621.73 S/ 63,313,495,008.19 2.6% S/ 9,482,748.20 S/ 128,145.26
S/ 628,665.95 S/ 395,220,872,498.29 5.9% S/ 9,738,990.57 S/ 967,866.13
S/ 351,448.99 S/ 123,516,392,572.02 3.6% S/ 9,981,059.15 -S/ 276,337.35
S/ 2,053,618.92 S/ 4,217,350,654,891.17 17.0% S/ 10,129,230.15 S/ 1,931,879.42
S/ 1,163,770.34 S/ 1,354,361,396,505.25 12.0% S/ 10,386,868.75 -S/ 726,409.73
S/ 898,592.11 S/ 807,467,780,154.25 9.4% S/ 10,348,808.11 -S/ 771,970.09
S/ 202,713.31 S/ 41,092,687,402.58 2.0% S/ 10,341,997.02 -S/ 111,908.13
S/ 995,478.71 S/ 990,977,868,699.79 9.2% S/ 10,246,643.46 S/ 571,297.23
S/ 1,146,429.84 S/ 1,314,301,378,042.42 10.1% S/ 10,469,287.24 S/ 885,431.80
S/ 279,416.85 S/ 78,073,774,201.14 2.7% S/ 10,328,009.13 S/ 193,490.23
S/ 948,453.17 S/ 899,563,415,683.05 8.0% S/ 10,500,217.20 S/ 1,346,289.00
S/ 675,881.13 S/ 456,815,301,890.07 6.4% S/ 10,954,150.84 -S/ 389,123.77
S/ 757,712.43 S/ 574,128,131,627.92 7.4% S/ 11,021,138.47 -S/ 801,173.36
S/ 231,960.59 S/ 53,805,713,766.74 2.2% S/ 10,901,543.36 -S/ 256,337.82
S/ 409,931.63 S/ 168,043,944,007.33 4.1% S/ 10,759,640.66 -S/ 692,839.72
S/ 2,792,355.90 S/ 7,797,251,490,880.52 21.3% S/ 10,668,700.97 S/ 2,434,312.13
S/ 10,920,002.35
MAD RMSE MAPE Bias (MD)
S/ 801,934.61 S/ 1,040,932.01 8.3% S/ 386,965.57

PROMEDIO MÓVIL CON 3 PERIODOS

Valor Absoluto del Erro de pronóstico al
Error porcentual
error cuadrado

S/ 8,898.99 S/ 79,192,023.02 0.1%

S/ 710,894.12 S/ 505,370,449,850.57 9.7%
S/ 370,636.08 S/ 137,371,103,797.77 5.3%
S/ 792,555.81 S/ 628,144,711,964.76 10.2%
S/ 179,074.53 S/ 32,067,687,294.72 2.4%
S/ 881,655.86 S/ 777,317,055,472.34 10.4%
S/ 826,232.86 S/ 682,660,738,943.78 10.8%
S/ 710,399.69 S/ 504,667,719,552.10 10.2%
S/ 491,214.46 S/ 241,291,645,713.09 6.6%
S/ 157,420.86 S/ 24,781,327,163.14 2.2%
S/ 2,067,717.47 S/ 4,275,455,535,743.20 22.1%
S/ 2,636,934.57 S/ 6,953,423,926,461.08 39.3%
S/ 646,750.34 S/ 418,286,002,290.12 8.8%
S/ 605,814.71 S/ 367,011,462,852.38 7.6%
S/ 375,344.25 S/ 140,883,306,008.06 4.5%
S/ 1,166,832.21 S/ 1,361,497,406,293.49 12.3%
S/ 532,647.04 S/ 283,712,869,220.76 5.9%
S/ 1,809,049.82 S/ 3,272,661,251,242.03 16.8%
S/ 922,154.38 S/ 850,368,700,553.18 9.4%
S/ 239,868.75 S/ 57,537,017,226.56 2.5%
S/ 1,095,963.24 S/ 1,201,135,423,431.29 10.2%
S/ 1,002,134.90 S/ 1,004,274,357,798.01 10.3%
S/ 2,356,387.77 S/ 5,552,563,322,605.57 19.5%
S/ 2,400,650.55 S/ 5,763,123,063,215.31 24.9%
S/ 83,621.00 S/ 6,992,471,641.00 0.9%
S/ 653,250.87 S/ 426,736,699,155.76 6.4%
S/ 587,851.80 S/ 345,569,738,763.24 5.4%
S/ 536,778.35 S/ 288,130,997,028.72 4.7%
S/ 833,219.68 S/ 694,255,035,139.30 7.9%
S/ 1,325,006.84 S/ 1,755,643,126,046.79 11.2%
S/ 1,281,479.13 S/ 1,642,188,760,625.55 12.1%
S/ 345,061.96 S/ 119,067,756,239.04 3.4%
S/ 425,240.43 S/ 180,829,423,306.58 4.0%
S/ 578,404.60 S/ 334,551,881,301.16 5.7%
S/ 3,036,212.16 S/ 9,218,584,280,531.87 23.2%

MAD RMSE MAPE

933524.57 1195804.99 0.10
 Método Bias MAD MSE MAPE

3 años - MA S/ 283,996.63 S/ 801,934.61 S/ 1,040,932.01 8.3%

5 años - MA S/ 386,965.57 S/ 812,266.16 S/ 1,030,118.87 8.3%
3 años - WMA S/ 250,528.62 S/ 793,211.64 S/ 1,046,559.48 8.2%
5 años - WMA S/ 292,622.70 S/ 806,797.34 S/ 1,048,975.56 8.3%
ES (α = 0.3) S/ 439,873.50 S/ 767,095.20 S/ 1,027,362.95 7.9%
ES (α = 0.5) S/ 289,881.56 S/ 767,369.71 S/ 1,017,266.99 8.0%
ES (α = 0.7) S/ 228,182.36 S/ 819,581.79 S/ 1,064,197.16 8.6%
REGRESIÓN -S/ 0.00 S/ 678,469.97 S/ 847,706.93 7.4%

PROMEDIO MÓVIL CON 5 PERIODOS PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERAD

Valor Absoluto del Erro de pronóstico al
Error porcentual Pronóstico Error
error cuadrado

S/ 6,995,660.03 -S/ 16,968.82

S/ 7,021,830.43 S/ 749,416.59
S/ 515,166.32 S/ 265,396,337,262.34 6.8% S/ 7,449,096.33 S/ 143,076.16
S/ 1,207,854.11 S/ 1,458,911,560,706.73 14.3% S/ 7,523,198.59 S/ 950,629.76
S/ 14,542.22 S/ 211,476,104.36 0.2% S/ 8,068,815.33 -S/ 421,219.84
S/ 755,511.11 S/ 570,797,040,355.48 10.9% S/ 7,884,380.75 -S/ 947,184.95
S/ 255,997.57 S/ 65,534,755,845.91 3.4% S/ 7,457,642.22 -S/ 29,231.96
S/ 344,851.08 S/ 118,922,265,997.76 4.7% S/ 7,324,882.97 -S/ 53,893.57
S/ 1,787,103.01 S/ 3,193,737,168,351.06 19.1% S/ 7,251,456.94 S/ 2,087,249.93
S/ 1,022,807.26 S/ 1,046,134,699,291.17 15.3% S/ 8,336,332.31 -S/ 1,634,560.01
S/ 186,892.29 S/ 34,928,726,566.31 2.5% S/ 7,606,696.09 -S/ 258,173.45
S/ 336,657.06 S/ 113,337,973,354.59 4.2% S/ 7,552,534.38 S/ 401,802.97
S/ 606,815.89 S/ 368,225,521,929.23 7.3% S/ 7,522,079.93 S/ 807,601.67
S/ 1,561,909.66 S/ 2,439,561,779,753.68 16.4% S/ 8,020,846.53 S/ 1,475,667.28
S/ 997,701.23 S/ 995,407,744,343.51 11.1% S/ 8,838,028.86 S/ 125,837.91
S/ 2,354,332.16 S/ 5,542,879,900,775.61 21.9% S/ 8,996,823.85 S/ 1,776,092.74
S/ 747,298.99 S/ 558,455,774,476.63 7.6% S/ 9,974,921.09 -S/ 124,158.88
S/ 128,145.26 S/ 16,421,208,685.63 1.3% S/ 9,950,029.44 -S/ 339,135.98
S/ 967,866.13 S/ 936,764,849,472.64 9.0% S/ 9,915,258.71 S/ 791,597.99
S/ 276,337.35 S/ 76,362,328,794.32 2.8% S/ 10,206,848.83 -S/ 502,127.03
S/ 1,931,879.42 S/ 3,732,158,085,692.02 16.0% S/ 9,986,596.60 S/ 2,074,512.97
S/ 726,409.73 S/ 527,671,092,933.03 7.5% S/ 11,083,342.67 -S/ 1,422,883.64
S/ 771,970.09 S/ 595,937,819,854.61 8.1% S/ 10,389,506.74 -S/ 812,668.72
S/ 111,908.13 S/ 12,523,430,007.73 1.1% S/ 10,098,778.63 S/ 131,310.26
S/ 571,297.23 S/ 326,380,525,005.67 5.3% S/ 9,920,187.66 S/ 897,753.03
S/ 885,431.80 S/ 783,989,475,992.97 7.8% S/ 10,393,364.62 S/ 961,354.42
S/ 193,490.23 S/ 37,438,468,331.49 1.8% S/ 10,968,759.50 -S/ 447,260.14
S/ 1,346,289.00 S/ 1,812,494,071,521.00 11.4% S/ 10,830,753.53 S/ 1,015,752.67
S/ 389,123.77 S/ 151,417,305,266.02 3.7% S/ 11,350,646.72 -S/ 785,619.65
S/ 801,173.36 S/ 641,878,755,978.38 7.8% S/ 10,940,765.27 -S/ 720,800.16
S/ 256,337.82 S/ 65,709,075,911.65 2.4% S/ 10,648,791.92 -S/ 3,586.38
S/ 692,839.72 S/ 480,026,872,066.96 6.9% S/ 10,501,597.72 -S/ 434,796.78
S/ 2,434,312.13 S/ 5,925,875,536,527.89 18.6% S/ 10,270,955.15 S/ 2,832,057.95
S/ 11,700,587.94
MAD RMSE MAPE Bias (MD)
S/ 812,266.16 S/ 1,030,118.87 8.3% S/ 250,528.62
 Predicción

S/ 11,271,673.19
S/ 10,920,002.35
S/ 11,700,587.94
S/ 11,437,194.45
S/ 11,266,003.89
S/ 11,720,259.53
S/ 12,237,800.10
S/ 11,816,604.31

PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO CON 3 PERIODOS PROMEDIO MÓVIL POND

Valor Absoluto del Erro de pronóstico al
Error porcentual Pronóstico Error
error cuadrado

S/ 16,968.82 S/ 287,940,784.32 0.2%

S/ 749,416.59 S/ 561,625,231,362.56 9.6%
S/ 143,076.16 S/ 20,470,787,274.19 1.9% S/ 7,319,246.99 S/ 272,925.50
S/ 950,629.76 S/ 903,696,934,893.88 11.2% S/ 7,442,273.38 S/ 1,031,554.97
S/ 421,219.84 S/ 177,426,150,239.87 5.5% S/ 7,907,159.35 -S/ 259,563.86
S/ 947,184.95 S/ 897,159,325,717.76 13.7% S/ 7,821,989.04 -S/ 884,793.24
S/ 29,231.96 S/ 854,507,310.05 0.4% S/ 7,529,322.46 -S/ 100,912.20
S/ 53,893.57 S/ 2,904,516,671.77 0.7% S/ 7,462,173.61 -S/ 191,184.21
S/ 2,087,249.93 S/ 4,356,612,278,634.00 22.4% S/ 7,341,388.45 S/ 1,997,318.42
S/ 1,634,560.01 S/ 2,671,786,416,483.84 24.4% S/ 8,115,011.50 -S/ 1,413,239.20
S/ 258,173.45 S/ 66,653,530,801.25 3.5% S/ 7,559,284.33 -S/ 210,761.69
S/ 401,802.97 S/ 161,445,623,486.40 5.1% S/ 7,581,112.96 S/ 373,224.39
S/ 807,601.67 S/ 652,220,462,232.40 9.7% S/ 7,656,640.22 S/ 673,041.38
S/ 1,475,667.28 S/ 2,177,593,912,408.60 15.5% S/ 7,927,274.08 S/ 1,569,239.73
S/ 125,837.91 S/ 15,835,180,851.55 1.4% S/ 8,541,834.27 S/ 422,032.50
S/ 1,776,092.74 S/ 3,154,505,428,185.07 16.5% S/ 8,788,471.35 S/ 1,984,445.24
S/ 124,158.88 S/ 15,415,426,986.22 1.3% S/ 9,680,121.12 S/ 170,641.09
S/ 339,135.98 S/ 115,013,210,217.47 3.5% S/ 9,792,442.85 -S/ 181,549.39
S/ 791,597.99 S/ 626,627,376,188.84 7.4% S/ 9,832,843.62 S/ 874,013.08
S/ 502,127.03 S/ 252,131,554,256.62 5.2% S/ 10,181,103.48 -S/ 476,381.68
S/ 2,074,512.97 S/ 4,303,604,054,400.17 17.2% S/ 10,004,503.64 S/ 2,056,605.93
S/ 1,422,883.64 S/ 2,024,597,867,208.48 14.7% S/ 10,845,623.07 -S/ 1,185,164.05
S/ 812,668.72 S/ 660,430,450,091.78 8.5% S/ 10,371,635.70 -S/ 794,797.68
S/ 131,310.26 S/ 17,242,384,381.27 1.3% S/ 10,163,886.89 S/ 66,202.00
S/ 897,753.03 S/ 805,960,511,851.71 8.3% S/ 10,109,683.91 S/ 708,256.78
S/ 961,354.42 S/ 924,202,328,544.37 8.5% S/ 10,369,167.48 S/ 985,551.56
S/ 447,260.14 S/ 200,041,637,305.42 4.3% S/ 10,733,097.32 -S/ 211,597.96
S/ 1,015,752.67 S/ 1,031,753,486,612.13 8.6% S/ 10,712,718.43 S/ 1,133,787.77
S/ 785,619.65 S/ 617,198,228,181.16 7.4% S/ 11,233,219.64 -S/ 668,192.57
S/ 720,800.16 S/ 519,552,866,331.23 7.1% S/ 10,968,306.19 -S/ 748,341.08
S/ 3,586.38 S/ 12,862,092.81 0.0% S/ 10,718,429.94 -S/ 73,224.40
S/ 434,796.78 S/ 189,048,237,289.59 4.3% S/ 10,636,804.50 -S/ 570,003.56
S/ 2,832,057.95 S/ 8,020,552,209,501.74 21.6% S/ 10,380,842.80 S/ 2,722,170.30
S/ 11,437,194.45
MAD RMSE MAPE Bias (MD)
S/ 793,211.64 S/ 1,046,559.48 8.2% S/ 292,622.70
PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO CON 5 PERIODOS SUAVIZACIÓ
Erro de pronóstico al
Valor Absoluto del error Error porcentual Pronóstico
cuadrado

S/ 6,647,332.16
S/ 6,647,332.16
S/ 6,644,662.46
S/ 6,856,061.91
S/ 6,892,850.70
S/ 272,925.50 S/ 74,488,326,639.77 3.6% S/ 7,156,369.60
S/ 1,031,554.97 S/ 1,064,105,655,100.14 12.2% S/ 7,287,110.46
S/ 259,563.86 S/ 67,373,398,456.35 3.4% S/ 7,643,125.83
S/ 884,793.24 S/ 782,859,084,628.05 12.8% S/ 7,644,466.73
S/ 100,912.20 S/ 10,183,272,613.40 1.4% S/ 7,432,285.45
S/ 191,184.21 S/ 36,551,402,726.88 2.6% S/ 7,431,122.89
S/ 1,997,318.42 S/ 3,989,280,864,879.34 21.4% S/ 7,383,082.84
S/ 1,413,239.20 S/ 1,997,245,049,135.79 21.1% S/ 7,969,770.05
S/ 210,761.69 S/ 44,420,491,446.99 2.9% S/ 7,589,370.73
S/ 373,224.39 S/ 139,296,446,783.77 4.7% S/ 7,517,116.30
S/ 673,041.38 S/ 452,984,703,230.55 8.1% S/ 7,648,282.62
S/ 1,569,239.73 S/ 2,462,513,333,348.95 16.5% S/ 7,852,702.31
S/ 422,032.50 S/ 178,111,428,524.05 4.7% S/ 8,345,845.76
S/ 1,984,445.24 S/ 3,938,022,920,480.88 18.4% S/ 8,531,252.06
S/ 170,641.09 S/ 29,118,382,278.95 1.7% S/ 9,203,751.42
S/ 181,549.39 S/ 32,960,179,738.53 1.9% S/ 9,397,854.66
S/ 874,013.08 S/ 763,898,860,515.03 8.2% S/ 9,461,766.30
S/ 476,381.68 S/ 226,939,509,327.06 4.9% S/ 9,835,293.42
S/ 2,056,605.93 S/ 4,229,627,961,594.19 17.1% S/ 9,796,121.93
S/ 1,185,164.05 S/ 1,404,613,836,078.88 12.3% S/ 10,475,618.22
S/ 794,797.68 S/ 631,703,357,696.97 8.3% S/ 10,231,070.46
S/ 66,202.00 S/ 4,382,704,539.19 0.6% S/ 10,034,800.73
S/ 708,256.78 S/ 501,627,663,582.94 6.5% S/ 10,093,387.18
S/ 985,551.56 S/ 971,311,871,505.12 8.7% S/ 10,310,753.23
S/ 211,597.96 S/ 44,773,696,464.56 2.0% S/ 10,623,942.97
S/ 1,133,787.77 S/ 1,285,474,702,866.42 9.6% S/ 10,593,209.89
S/ 668,192.57 S/ 446,481,312,607.78 6.3% S/ 10,969,198.78
S/ 748,341.08 S/ 560,014,369,770.54 7.3% S/ 10,847,947.27
S/ 73,224.40 S/ 5,361,812,682.14 0.7% S/ 10,659,552.62
S/ 570,003.56 S/ 324,904,053,282.64 5.7% S/ 10,655,248.50
S/ 2,722,170.30 S/ 7,410,211,142,202.08 20.8% S/ 10,478,714.23
S/ 11,266,003.89
MAD RMSE MAPE
S/ 806,797.34 S/ 1,048,975.56 8.3%
 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL (Alfa=0.3)
Erro de pronóstico al
Error Valor Absoluto del error Error porcentual
cuadrado

-S/ 8,898.99 S/ 8,898.99 S/ 79,192,023.02 0.1%

S/ 704,664.83 S/ 704,664.83 S/ 496,552,518,410.94 9.6%
S/ 122,629.30 S/ 122,629.30 S/ 15,037,944,948.71 1.8%
S/ 878,396.32 S/ 878,396.32 S/ 771,580,093,636.81 11.3%
S/ 435,802.89 S/ 435,802.89 S/ 189,924,161,948.98 5.7%
S/ 1,186,717.89 S/ 1,186,717.89 S/ 1,408,299,339,582.13 14.0%
S/ 4,469.66 S/ 4,469.66 S/ 19,977,858.69 0.1%
-S/ 707,270.93 S/ 707,270.93 S/ 500,232,165,796.08 10.2%
-S/ 3,875.19 S/ 3,875.19 S/ 15,017,095.21 0.1%
-S/ 160,133.49 S/ 160,133.49 S/ 25,642,735,513.13 2.2%
S/ 1,955,624.03 S/ 1,955,624.03 S/ 3,824,465,327,341.00 20.9%
-S/ 1,267,997.75 S/ 1,267,997.75 S/ 1,607,818,300,261.63 18.9%
-S/ 240,848.09 S/ 240,848.09 S/ 58,007,800,880.04 3.3%
S/ 437,221.05 S/ 437,221.05 S/ 191,162,245,943.23 5.5%
S/ 681,398.98 S/ 681,398.98 S/ 464,304,576,082.79 8.2%
S/ 1,643,811.50 S/ 1,643,811.50 S/ 2,702,116,244,746.49 17.3%
S/ 618,021.01 S/ 618,021.01 S/ 381,949,968,068.27 6.9%
S/ 2,241,664.53 S/ 2,241,664.53 S/ 5,025,059,849,748.65 20.8%
S/ 647,010.79 S/ 647,010.79 S/ 418,622,960,576.91 6.6%
S/ 213,038.80 S/ 213,038.80 S/ 45,385,531,168.91 2.2%
S/ 1,245,090.40 S/ 1,245,090.40 S/ 1,550,250,107,704.69 11.6%
-S/ 130,571.62 S/ 130,571.62 S/ 17,048,947,690.11 1.3%
S/ 2,264,987.64 S/ 2,264,987.64 S/ 5,130,168,994,381.70 18.8%
-S/ 815,159.20 S/ 815,159.20 S/ 664,484,528,376.89 8.4%
-S/ 654,232.44 S/ 654,232.44 S/ 428,020,089,499.13 6.8%
S/ 195,288.16 S/ 195,288.16 S/ 38,137,465,391.83 1.9%
S/ 724,553.51 S/ 724,553.51 S/ 524,977,791,636.33 6.7%
S/ 1,043,965.81 S/ 1,043,965.81 S/ 1,089,864,608,992.07 9.2%
-S/ 102,443.61 S/ 102,443.61 S/ 10,494,694,081.95 1.0%
S/ 1,253,296.31 S/ 1,253,296.31 S/ 1,570,751,640,882.03 10.6%
-S/ 404,171.71 S/ 404,171.71 S/ 163,354,773,539.14 3.8%
-S/ 627,982.16 S/ 627,982.16 S/ 394,361,592,093.29 6.1%
-S/ 14,347.08 S/ 14,347.08 S/ 205,838,742.96 0.1%
-S/ 588,447.56 S/ 588,447.56 S/ 346,270,527,265.94 5.8%
S/ 2,624,298.87 S/ 2,624,298.87 S/ 6,886,944,559,837.06 20.0%

Bias (MD) MAD RMSE MAPE

S/ 439,873.50 S/ 767,095.20 S/ 1,027,362.95 7.9%
 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL (Alfa=0.5)
Erro de pronóstico al
Pronóstico Error Valor Absoluto del error
cuadrado

S/ 6,647,332.16
S/ 6,647,332.16 -S/ 8,898.99 S/ 8,898.99 S/ 79,192,023.02
S/ 6,642,882.67 S/ 706,444.63 S/ 706,444.63 S/ 499,064,008,191.39
S/ 6,996,104.98 -S/ 17,413.77 S/ 17,413.77 S/ 303,239,298.54
S/ 6,987,398.09 S/ 783,848.93 S/ 783,848.93 S/ 614,419,139,183.28
S/ 7,379,322.56 S/ 212,849.93 S/ 212,849.93 S/ 45,305,094,031.32
S/ 7,485,747.52 S/ 988,080.83 S/ 988,080.83 S/ 976,303,719,820.43
S/ 7,979,787.94 -S/ 332,192.45 S/ 332,192.45 S/ 110,351,821,656.99
S/ 7,813,691.71 -S/ 876,495.91 S/ 876,495.91 S/ 768,245,086,135.68
S/ 7,375,443.76 S/ 52,966.50 S/ 52,966.50 S/ 2,805,450,473.98
S/ 7,401,927.01 -S/ 130,937.61 S/ 130,937.61 S/ 17,144,657,277.76
S/ 7,336,458.20 S/ 2,002,248.67 S/ 2,002,248.67 S/ 4,008,999,719,818.33
S/ 8,337,582.54 -S/ 1,635,810.24 S/ 1,635,810.24 S/ 2,675,875,131,751.96
S/ 7,519,677.42 -S/ 171,154.78 S/ 171,154.78 S/ 29,293,958,217.93
S/ 7,434,100.03 S/ 520,237.32 S/ 520,237.32 S/ 270,646,869,879.04
S/ 7,694,218.69 S/ 635,462.91 S/ 635,462.91 S/ 403,813,110,448.77
S/ 8,011,950.14 S/ 1,484,563.67 S/ 1,484,563.67 S/ 2,203,929,275,979.18
S/ 8,754,231.98 S/ 209,634.79 S/ 209,634.79 S/ 43,946,746,264.71
S/ 8,859,049.37 S/ 1,913,867.22 S/ 1,913,867.22 S/ 3,662,887,721,610.87
S/ 9,815,982.98 S/ 34,779.23 S/ 34,779.23 S/ 1,209,594,710.55
S/ 9,833,372.60 -S/ 222,479.14 S/ 222,479.14 S/ 49,496,965,922.43
S/ 9,722,133.03 S/ 984,723.67 S/ 984,723.67 S/ 969,680,710,269.92
S/ 10,214,494.86 -S/ 509,773.06 S/ 509,773.06 S/ 259,868,576,761.11
S/ 9,959,608.33 S/ 2,101,501.24 S/ 2,101,501.24 S/ 4,416,307,453,354.35
S/ 11,010,358.95 -S/ 1,349,899.93 S/ 1,349,899.93 S/ 1,822,229,823,701.34
S/ 10,335,408.99 -S/ 758,570.97 S/ 758,570.97 S/ 575,429,909,696.10
S/ 9,956,123.50 S/ 273,965.39 S/ 273,965.39 S/ 75,057,033,411.68
S/ 10,093,106.20 S/ 724,834.49 S/ 724,834.49 S/ 525,385,043,149.44
S/ 10,455,523.44 S/ 899,195.60 S/ 899,195.60 S/ 808,552,721,327.51
S/ 10,905,121.24 -S/ 383,621.88 S/ 383,621.88 S/ 147,165,748,037.42
S/ 10,713,310.30 S/ 1,133,195.90 S/ 1,133,195.90 S/ 1,284,132,945,970.94
S/ 11,279,908.25 -S/ 714,881.18 S/ 714,881.18 S/ 511,055,102,087.81
S/ 10,922,467.66 -S/ 702,502.55 S/ 702,502.55 S/ 493,509,833,036.38
S/ 10,571,216.39 S/ 73,989.15 S/ 73,989.15 S/ 5,474,395,042.88
S/ 10,608,210.96 -S/ 541,410.02 S/ 541,410.02 S/ 293,124,812,517.38
S/ 10,337,505.95 S/ 2,765,507.15 S/ 2,765,507.15 S/ 7,648,029,789,649.63
S/ 11,720,259.53
Bias (MD) MAD RMSE
S/ 289,881.56 S/ 767,369.71 S/ 1,017,266.99
 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL (Alfa=0.7)

Error porcentual Pronóstico Error Valor Absoluto del error

S/ 6,647,332.16
0.1% S/ 6,647,332.16 -S/ 8,898.99 S/ 8,898.99
9.6% S/ 6,641,102.87 S/ 708,224.42 S/ 708,224.42
0.2% S/ 7,136,859.96 -S/ 158,168.75 S/ 158,168.75
10.1% S/ 7,026,141.84 S/ 745,105.18 S/ 745,105.18
2.8% S/ 7,547,715.46 S/ 44,457.03 S/ 44,457.03
11.7% S/ 7,578,835.38 S/ 894,992.97 S/ 894,992.97
4.3% S/ 8,205,330.46 -S/ 557,734.97 S/ 557,734.97
12.6% S/ 7,814,915.98 -S/ 877,720.18 S/ 877,720.18
0.7% S/ 7,200,511.85 S/ 227,898.41 S/ 227,898.41
1.8% S/ 7,360,040.74 -S/ 89,051.34 S/ 89,051.34
21.4% S/ 7,297,704.80 S/ 2,041,002.07 S/ 2,041,002.07
24.4% S/ 8,726,406.25 -S/ 2,024,633.95 S/ 2,024,633.95
2.3% S/ 7,309,162.48 S/ 39,360.16 S/ 39,360.16
6.5% S/ 7,336,714.59 S/ 617,622.76 S/ 617,622.76
7.6% S/ 7,769,050.52 S/ 560,631.08 S/ 560,631.08
15.6% S/ 8,161,492.28 S/ 1,335,021.53 S/ 1,335,021.53
2.3% S/ 9,096,007.35 -S/ 132,140.58 S/ 132,140.58
17.8% S/ 9,003,508.94 S/ 1,769,407.65 S/ 1,769,407.65
0.4% S/ 10,242,094.30 -S/ 391,332.09 S/ 391,332.09
2.3% S/ 9,968,161.84 -S/ 357,268.38 S/ 357,268.38
9.2% S/ 9,718,073.97 S/ 988,782.73 S/ 988,782.73
5.3% S/ 10,410,221.88 -S/ 705,500.08 S/ 705,500.08
17.4% S/ 9,916,371.82 S/ 2,144,737.75 S/ 2,144,737.75
14.0% S/ 11,417,688.25 -S/ 1,757,229.23 S/ 1,757,229.23
7.9% S/ 10,187,627.79 -S/ 610,789.77 S/ 610,789.77
2.7% S/ 9,760,074.95 S/ 470,013.94 S/ 470,013.94
6.7% S/ 10,089,084.71 S/ 728,855.98 S/ 728,855.98
7.9% S/ 10,599,283.90 S/ 755,435.14 S/ 755,435.14
3.6% S/ 11,128,088.50 -S/ 606,589.14 S/ 606,589.14
9.6% S/ 10,703,476.10 S/ 1,143,030.10 S/ 1,143,030.10
6.8% S/ 11,503,597.17 -S/ 938,570.10 S/ 938,570.10
6.9% S/ 10,846,598.10 -S/ 626,632.99 S/ 626,632.99
0.7% S/ 10,407,955.01 S/ 237,250.53 S/ 237,250.53
5.4% S/ 10,574,030.38 -S/ 507,229.44 S/ 507,229.44
21.1% S/ 10,218,969.77 S/ 2,884,043.33 S/ 2,884,043.33
S/ 12,237,800.10
MAPE Bias (MD) MAD
8.0% S/ 228,182.36 S/ 819,581.79
 a+b*periodo
a= 6526948.3
b= 142963.7
ONENCIAL (Alfa=0.7) REGRESIÓN LINEAL
Erro de pronóstico al Valor Absoluto
Error porcentual Pronóstico Error
cuadrado del error

S/ 6,669,911.99 -S/ 22,579.83 22579.83

S/ 79,192,023.02 0.1% S/ 6,812,875.67 -S/ 174,442.50 174442.50
S/ 501,581,833,333.68 9.6% S/ 6,955,839.34 S/ 393,487.95 393487.95
S/ 25,017,354,457.21 2.3% S/ 7,098,803.02 -S/ 120,111.81 120111.81
S/ 555,181,735,327.99 9.6% S/ 7,241,766.69 S/ 529,480.33 529480.33
S/ 1,976,427,091.50 0.6% S/ 7,384,730.37 S/ 207,442.12 207442.12
S/ 801,012,411,993.13 10.6% S/ 7,527,694.04 S/ 946,134.31 946134.31
S/ 311,068,296,459.85 7.3% S/ 7,670,657.72 -S/ 23,062.23 23062.23
S/ 770,392,715,992.54 12.7% S/ 7,813,621.40 -S/ 876,425.60 876425.60
S/ 51,937,683,331.67 3.1% S/ 7,956,585.07 -S/ 528,174.81 528174.81
S/ 7,930,140,849.94 1.2% S/ 8,099,548.75 -S/ 828,559.35 828559.35
S/ 4,165,689,443,683.27 21.9% S/ 8,242,512.42 S/ 1,096,194.45 1096194.45
S/ 4,099,142,629,247.06 30.2% S/ 8,385,476.10 -S/ 1,683,703.80 1683703.80
S/ 1,549,221,814.72 0.5% S/ 8,528,439.77 -S/ 1,179,917.13 1179917.13
S/ 381,457,869,408.31 7.8% S/ 8,671,403.45 -S/ 717,066.10 717066.10
S/ 314,307,204,458.91 6.7% S/ 8,814,367.12 -S/ 484,685.52 484685.52
S/ 1,782,282,493,812.62 14.1% S/ 8,957,330.80 S/ 539,183.01 539183.01
S/ 17,461,132,902.07 1.5% S/ 9,100,294.48 -S/ 136,427.71 136427.71
S/ 3,130,803,417,645.61 16.4% S/ 9,243,258.15 S/ 1,529,658.44 1529658.44
S/ 153,140,801,694.80 4.0% S/ 9,386,221.83 S/ 464,540.38 464540.38
S/ 127,640,692,391.05 3.7% S/ 9,529,185.50 S/ 81,707.96 81707.96
S/ 977,691,281,690.95 9.2% S/ 9,672,149.18 S/ 1,034,707.52 1034707.52
S/ 497,730,365,458.72 7.3% S/ 9,815,112.85 -S/ 110,391.05 110391.05
S/ 4,599,899,996,765.36 17.8% S/ 9,958,076.53 S/ 2,103,033.04 2103033.04
S/ 3,087,854,553,989.52 18.2% S/ 10,101,040.20 -S/ 440,581.18 440581.18
S/ 373,064,140,582.75 6.4% S/ 10,244,003.88 -S/ 667,165.86 667165.86
S/ 220,913,103,443.88 4.6% S/ 10,386,967.56 -S/ 156,878.67 156878.67
S/ 531,231,042,334.15 6.7% S/ 10,529,931.23 S/ 288,009.46 288009.46
S/ 570,682,257,646.13 6.7% S/ 10,672,894.91 S/ 681,824.13 681824.13
S/ 367,950,380,677.61 5.8% S/ 10,815,858.58 -S/ 294,359.22 294359.22
S/ 1,306,517,807,245.05 9.6% S/ 10,958,822.26 S/ 887,683.94 887683.94
S/ 880,913,833,170.97 8.9% S/ 11,101,785.93 -S/ 536,758.86 536758.86
S/ 392,668,904,267.90 6.1% S/ 11,244,749.61 -S/ 1,024,784.50 1024784.50
S/ 56,287,815,396.11 2.2% S/ 11,387,713.28 -S/ 742,507.74 742507.74
S/ 257,281,704,912.29 5.0% S/ 11,530,676.96 -S/ 1,463,876.02 1463876.02
S/ 8,317,705,917,594.41 22.0% S/ 11,673,640.64 S/ 1,429,372.46 1429372.46
S/ 11,816,604.31
RMSE MAPE Bias (MD) MAD
S/ 1,064,197.16 8.6% -S/ 0.00 S/ 678,469.97
ESIÓN LINEAL
Erro de pronóstico al
Error porcentual
cuadrado

509848783.177517 0.3% Intercepto = 6526948.32

30430184722.9265 2.6% Pendiente = 142963.68
154832764864.392 5.4% Coeficiente de correlación = 0.87
14426846423.915 1.7% Coeficiente de regresión = 0.75
280349416075.812 6.8%
43032233511.4041 2.7%
895170123688.806 11.2%
531866463.930986 0.3%
768121824981.812 12.6%
278968631358.727 7.1%
686510591371.684 11.4%
1201642266772.62 11.7%
2834858479531.09 25.1%
1392204442157.18 16.1%
514183790559.029 9.0%
234920057867.981 5.8%
290718317977.97 5.7%
18612518918.5372 1.5%
2339854938809.58 14.2%
 215797767485.215 4.7%
6676190317.59475 0.9%
1070619655946.66 9.7%
12186184720.3551 1.1%
4422747970767.22 17.4%
194111780348.438 4.6%
445110285150.243 7.0%
24610915801.6562 1.5%
82949448233.0309 2.7%
464884148373.959 6.0%
86647351891.1373 2.8%
787982780719.381 7.5%
288110077708.613 5.1%
1050183269821.53 10.0%
551317751041.608 7.0%
2142933002889.38 14.5%
2043105641167.65 10.9%

RMSE MAPE
S/ 847,706.93 7.4%