a)

60
50
vote
40
30

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
growth

Parece haber una asociación positiva entre voto y crecimiento.

b)
. reg vote growth

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 24

F( 1, 22) = 23.73
Model 546.274934 1 546.274934 Prob > F = 0.0001
Residual 506.466207 22 23.0211912 R-squared = 0.5189
Adj R-squared = 0.4970
Total 1052.74114 23 45.771354 Root MSE = 4.798

vote Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

growth .8859464 .1818719 4.87 0.000 .5087671 1.263126

_cons 50.8484 1.012546 50.22 0.000 48.74851 52.94829
60
50
40
30

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
growth

vote Linear prediction

c)
. reg vote growth

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 23

F( 1, 21) = 23.14
Model 535.353211 1 535.353211 Prob > F = 0.0001
Residual 485.820784 21 23.1343231 R-squared = 0.5243
Adj R-squared = 0.5016
Total 1021.174 22 46.4169998 Root MSE = 4.8098

vote Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

growth .8779824 .1825131 4.81 0.000 .4984257 1.257539

_cons 51.05325 1.037936 49.19 0.000 48.89474 53.21176

. di 51.05325+(0.8779824*0.22)
51.246406

Sugiere que el partido en el poder mantendrá la mayoría

d)
. reg vote inflation

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 24

F( 1, 22) = 0.55
Model 25.6083401 1 25.6083401 Prob > F = 0.4668
Residual 1027.1328 22 46.6878546 R-squared = 0.0243
Adj R-squared = -0.0200
Total 1052.74114 23 45.771354 Root MSE = 6.8329

vote Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

inflation -.4443121 .5999284 -0.74 0.467 -1.688487 .7998632

_cons 53.40774 2.24999 23.74 0.000 48.74155 58.07393
60
50
40
30

0 2 4 6 8
inflation

vote Linear prediction

Se estima que 1% de incremento en inflación durante los primeros 15 cuartos del partido en el
poder reduce la probabilidad de voto en un 0.444%.