Collaborative work N°1: Production Management

Instructions :
The work must be done in groups of 3 to 4 people.
You must upload to the platform no later than Sunday 11:59 p.m. of week 5.
It must be delivered in an Excel file. It must contain the statement and development
of the problems and the appropriate tables as appropriate.
Each problem must be developed on a different sheet of the file.
Problem 1: Productivity (20 Points) ( Unab
University () yA Andrés Bello* *- I Normal
Illi I *
Shifts 2
Simbols Ltda. has an urgent request for special work clothes for high mountains,
which will be used in some work in a high-altitude mine. H/Turmo 40
Working the two normal 40-hour shifts, the manufacturing process typically Units/Week 2500
produces 2,500 outfits per week at the normal cost of $120 each, excluding labor. Cu 120
70 employees work in the first shift and 30 in the second, who are paid $9 for each
hour. No. T1 Employees 70
The contracted price is $200 per item. No. T2 Employees 30
In response to the urgency of the order, Simbols Ltda. has received authorization to MO Cost 9
implement a third shift with the same number of operators as the second shift, but DEVELOPMENT
at a cost per hour with a 50% surcharge, which will allow production to be
increased to 4,000 jobs per week.
The production cost for this urgent order remains at $120/unit for half of the items TO
and for the rest it would increase to $144/unit for each uniform. .-
a. Calculate the labor productivity in (units/hh) of the normal situation, urgency
and the percentage variation. Productivity MO NORMAL 0.625
b. Calculate the multifactorial variation of the normal situation, urgency and the Productivity MO Urgency 1.25
percentage variation.
c. Calculate the utility and comment.
d. If you had to make any improvements, what recommendations would you Variation % 100%
make? Support your answer quantitatively.
B.-
Sale NORMAL
CV 500000
CMO 300000
C.T. 36000
Multifactor Production 336000
1.488
Delta %
-5.88%
C.-

Sales 800000
Variable cost -498000
 HH Cost -52200
Utility 249800
D.-

An obvious improvement is to use hand

 Urgency
Shifts 1
No. Employees 30 employees
Cost/Hour 13.5$/hour
Cost u (half) 120 50%
employees Cost u (half 2) 144 50%
employees Units/Week 1500
Q 200 per holding

Units/hour Units/hour

URGENCY
300000
198000
16200
214200
1,401 emergency work to replace normal labor, since it has greater productivity.
 Problem 2: Breakeven point (20 points)
Sale price
A liquor marketer has a premium product that is supplied C.F.
locally and sells for $15,000 per bottle, with fixed costs of $2,400,000 and variable costs of
$7,000 for each bottle. Cvu
a. Calculate the break-even point in units and values.
b. Determine the number of bottles you should sell weekly to have a profit of $3,000,000. TO.-
c. You have been offered the opportunity to directly import the product with fixed costs of Pto Eq Units
$1,200,000 per week and variable costs of $9,500 per bottle.
Calculate the balance point between the options of buying locally and importing. Pto Eq Sale $
d. It is planned to sell 700 units per week. Recommend whether the marketer should buy
locally or import the product. B.-

C.F. Required Utility

CV Price Q=

Pto eq Indifference C.-

D.-

Q=

Local Production

Total income
total CV
C.F.
Ut
Local production is preferred,
since
 15000
2400000
7000

300 4500000

3000000
675

Local Import
1200000 2400000
9500 7000

480 units

700

With product import

10500000
Total income 10500000
4900000 total CV 6650000
2400000 C.F. 1200000
3200000 Ut 2650000
that its usefulness is greater for 700 units. TO.-
Matrix
Problem 3: Decision theory (20 points) ( Unab
university (AI andA
Andrés Bello- •-I Illi I•
Revenue high Half Low
The Mag-Logistics distribution company operates only regionally in the RM. Due to Fuse 300000 140000 60000
extensive market growth, they want to expand their business nationwide. For this, it is Buy 350000 180000 50000
necessary to define an expansion strategy, so the company's management has proposed Enlarge 275000 160000 80000
the following possible strategies: Merge with the company Transport SA, buy the
company of the competition, or expand its facilities. The decision of which strategy to
follow will be made based on the demand projection of the distribution market. A
commercial analyst of the company has foreseen three scenarios of the behavior of the B.-

demand for the service, these can be: High, medium, low; with a probability of 27%,
43% and 30%, respectively. Maximin
On the other hand, the expected benefits have been calculated if any of the strategies
are selected, according to the states of nature that may occur: these benefits are
detailed below:
- Merging with the company Transport SA: If sales are high, it is expected to earn Profits high Half Low
US$300,000, if they are low, US$60,000, while if they are average, it is expected to earn Fuse 300000 140000 60000
US$140,000. Buy 350000 180000 50000
- In the event that it is decided to buy the competitor's company, the expected benefits Enlarge 275000 160000 80000
are: US$350,000, US$180,000 and US$50,000 for high, medium and low sales, MAX=
respectively.
Decision according to criteria: Enlarge
- If Mag-Logistics decides to expand its facilities, the expected returns will be
US$275,000, US$160,000 and US$80,000, for high, medium and low demand.
You are the operations manager of this company, so you have been tasked with making Maximax
the decision of what is the best strategy so that Mag-Logistics can expand nationally, for
this:
Profits high Half Low
a. Build the decision matrix. Fuse 300000 140000 60000
b. Select the best option according to criteria: Buy 350000 180000 50000
Max min
Max max Enlarge 275000 160000 80000
MAX=
Laplace
Mini max rejection Decision according to criteria: Buy

According to the given probabilities:

State high Half Low

Q 27% 43% 30%

Laplace
Profits High Medium Low
Sale 2
CV 2
CMO 2
C.T. 2
Multifactor Production 2
Delta % 2
Sales 2
Variable cost 2
800000 2
-498000 2
C.F. 5
CV Price 5
Pto eq Indifference 5
Q= 5
Total income 5
total CV 5
C.F. 5
Ut 5
Laplace 9
Special Value 14

Decision according to criteria: Buy

MINIMAX REJECTION
Profits High Medium Low
Fuse 50000 40000 20000
Buy 0 0 30000
Enlarge 75000 20000 0
 MIN
Decision according to criteria:
min
60000
50000
80000
80000

Max
300000
350000
275000
350000
 159200
186900
167050

MAX
50000
30000
75000
30000
Buy
Problem 4: Decision tree (20 points) ■ ( Unab
University () and iyA
Andrés Bello* XXl lili I*—

A businessman purchases fresh fish in the central market for later sale. Each box of Conditional probabilities:
fish identifies it as excellent or not excellent based on the percentage of fresh fish.
If you buy immediately, you would have the same chance that the box is excellent or P(Quality/Excellent)=
not . P(Low Quality/Excellent)=
If before purchasing you decide to check its quality, removing a specimen of fish in P(High Quality/Not Excellent)=
order to verify whether or not it is high quality fish, there will be a probability that P(Low Quality/Not Excellent)=
55% of the boxes will be excellent.
If the boxes you buy are excellent it means that you will have an 82% probability that
the fish will be of high quality. On the other hand, if you buy a low-quality box, there P(High Quality)=
is a 10% chance that it is high-quality fish. P(Low Quality)=
A box of excellent fish generates a profit of 100 euros, while a box of non-excellent
fish causes losses of 100 euros due to the bad image of the company that customers P(excellent/High Quality)=
get.
P(Not excellent/High Quality)=
a. Draw the decision tree. P(Excellent/Low Quality)=
b. Calculate the returns and establish the strategy that the businessman must P(NOT Excellent/Low Quality)=
follow.

Buy Immediate

Not buying
Special 3
Value
Check

36
Excellent Box " 50% 100 The optimal decision
is: 1st check the quality
2nd buy if the check shows high quality

Non-Exclusive Box 50%

100

Excellent Box

High quality 100

46% 89%
78.260869565 Buy 11%
78.26087Non-Exclusive Box -100

217
Low quality
Don't Buy 0
Excellent Box
 Excellent
Buy -66.66667 Box no 0.54 83% -100
0

Not buying
Problem 5: Sales forecast (20 points) ■ G)
Jan-17 456
Feb-17 245 yme university
Period Demand At ft et
Tramontina
Mar-17 is dedicated
243 to the manufacture of kitchen utensils,
1 has never made
Jan-17 456
sales forecasts
Apr-17 and
310 is supplied with the same amount of products
2 every month,
Feb-17 245
which generated large economic losses during 2018. The Operations manager is
May-17 419 3
interested in implementing a forecasting system, but does not have enoughMar-17time to 243 314.7
do so, so he has214
Jun-17 asked you to make a proposal to determine4the demand for
Apr-17 310 266.0 314.7 -4.7
January
Jul-17 2019, based
497 on the historical data collected. presented
5 below:May-17 419 324.0 266.0 153.0
to. Using Excel spreadsheets,
Aug-17 431 calculate for each period (where
6 possible)Jun-17
the 214 314.3 324.0 -110.0
forecast,
Sep-17 simple288error, absolute error, in addition to the mean
7 error andJul-17
MAD, for 497 376.7 314.3 182.7
each indicated methodology.
Oct-17 435 8 Aug-17 431 380.7 376.7 54.3
Nov-17 316 9 Sep-17 288 405.3 380.7 -92.7
Dec-17 484 Horizontal Pattern 10 Oct-17 435 384.7 405.3 29.7
Jan-18 450(Consider error calculation) 11 Nov-17 316 346.3 384.7 -68.7
Feb-18 355a) Simple moving average with: 12 Dec-17 484 411.7 346.3 137.7
Mar-18 211 1. n= 3 13 Jan-18 450 416.7 411.7 38.3
Apr-18 299 Yo. n= 5 14 Feb-18 355 429.7 416.7 -61.7
May-18 294b) Weighted moving average according to: 15 Mar-18 211 338.7 429.7 -218.7
Jun-18 403 16 Apr-18 299 288.3 338.7 -39.7
Jul-18 419 Yo. 0,4-0,35-0,25
Yo. 0,6-0,3-0,1 17 May-18 294 268.0 288.3 5.7
Aug-18 284 18 Jun-18 403 332.0 268.0 135.0
c) Exponential
b.Sep-18
Graph the 211 sales pattern 19
is observed.Jul-18 419 372.0 332.0 87.0
smoothing
Oct-18 206
c. Based on the atos e 3 indicate what type lysis of errors,20indicate what
Aug-18 284 368.7 372.0 -88.0
forecast
Nov-18 it will be
401of forecasts. 21 Sep-18 211 304.7 368.7 -157.7
eDec-18 490
standardized method of an most suitable for calculating 22 Oct-18 206 233.7 304.7 -98.7
23 Nov-18 401 272.7 233.7 167.3
24 Dec-18 490 365.7 272.7 217.3
25 Jan-19 Forecast 365.7 12.7
Average Error

a) Simple moving average with n=5

Period Demand a) Simple moving average with

Period Demand At ft et
n=3 1 Jan-17 456
2 Feb-17 245
 3 Mar-17 243
4 Apr-17 310
5 May-17 419 334.6
6 Jun-17 214 286.2 334.6 -120.6
7 Jul-17 497 336.6 286.2 210.8
8 Aug-17 431 374.2 336.6 94.4
9 Sep-17 288 369.8 374.2 -86.2
10 Oct-17 435 373.0 369.8 65.2
11 Nov-17 316 393.4 373.0 -57.0
12 Dec-17 484 390.8 393.4 90.6
13 Jan-18 450 394.6 390.8 59.2
14 Feb-18 355 408.0 394.6 -39.6
15 Mar-18 211 363.2 408.0 -197.0
16 Apr-18 299 359.8 363.2 -64.2
17 May-18 294 321.8 359.8 -65.8
18 Jun-18 403 312.4 321.8 81.2
19 Jul-18 419 325.2 312.4 106.6
20 Aug-18 284 339.8 325.2 -41.2
21 Sep-18 211 322.2 339.8 -128.8
22 Oct-18 206 304.6 322.2 -116.2
23 Nov-18 401 304.2 304.6 96.4
24 Dec-18 490 318.4 304.2 185.8
25 Jan-19 Forecast 318.4 3.9
Average Error
|Et|

4.7
153.0
110.0
182.7
54.3
92.7
29.7
68.7
137.7
38.3
61.7
218.7
39.7
5.7
135.0
87.0
88.0
157.7
98.7
167.3
217.3
102.3
MAD
120.6
210.8
94.4
86.2
65.2
57.0
90.6
59.2
39.6
197.0
64.2
65.8
81.2
106.6
41.2
128.8
116.2
96.4
185.8
100.4
MAD