En la siguiente tabla se presenta la distribución de probabilidad para un numero de consultas

1.Genere por medio del método de Montecarlo los primeros 60 dí

2.Compare el promedio obtenido de la distribución con el de los datos g

#DE CONSULTAS FREC. DIARIA FREC. REL. FREC. REL % FREC ACUMULADA
0 10 0.05 5% 5.00%
1 20 0.10 10% 15.00%
2 40 0.20 20% 35.00%
3 60 0.30 30% 65.00%
4 40 0.20 20% 85.00%
5 30 0.15 15% 100.00%
200 1.00 100%

PRO PONDERADO
2.95

MONTECARLO DÍA ALEATORIOS % Cant. Consultas

1 LUNES 0.23855293 23.86% 2
2 MARTES 0.13098346 13.10% 1
3 MIÉRCOLES 0.08036196 8.04% 1
4 JUEVES 0.09357749 9.36% 1
5 VIERNES 0.03660645 3.66% 0
6 SÁBADO 0.94591475 94.59% 5
7 DOMINGO 0.02594538 2.59% 0
8 LUNES 0.55408197 55.41% 3
9 MARTES 0.47343477 47.34% 3
10 MIÉRCOLES 0.91280442 91.28% 5
11 JUEVES 0.04210116 4.21% 0
12 VIERNES 0.8276264 82.76% 4
13 SÁBADO 0.83830477 83.83% 4
14 DOMINGO 0.14492948 14.49% 1
15 LUNES 0.55990558 55.99% 3
16 MARTES 0.73506581 73.51% 4
17 MIÉRCOLES 0.38227139 38.23% 3
18 JUEVES 0.71639125 71.64% 4
19 VIERNES 0.13999765 14.00% 1
20 SÁBADO 0.93229112 93.23% 5
21 DOMINGO 0.173039 17.30% 2
22 LUNES 0.43925207 43.93% 3
23 MARTES 0.8187701 81.88% 4
24 MIÉRCOLES 0.52100638 52.10% 3
25 JUEVES 0.00306943 0.31% 0
26 VIERNES 0.32787857 32.79% 2
27 SÁBADO 0.10690642 10.69% 1
28 DOMINGO 0.25620696 25.62% 2
29 LUNES 0.18080594 18.08% 2
30 MARTES 0.11523604 11.52% 1
31 MIÉRCOLES 0.02698195 2.70% 0
32 JUEVES 0.33516681 33.52% 2
33 VIERNES 0.96199534 96.20% 5
34 SÁBADO 0.76277833 76.28% 4
35 DOMINGO 0.00980267 0.98% 0
36 LUNES 0.55067638 55.07% 3
37 MARTES 0.76483035 76.48% 4
38 MIÉRCOLES 0.16934555 16.93% 2
39 JUEVES 0.04607229 4.61% 0
40 VIERNES 0.73097019 73.10% 4
41 SÁBADO 0.12731303 12.73% 1
42 DOMINGO 0.64314285 64.31% 3
43 LUNES 0.07106985 7.11% 1
44 MARTES 0.08410932 8.41% 1
45 MIÉRCOLES 0.68295489 68.30% 4
46 JUEVES 0.8320481 83.20% 4
47 VIERNES 0.77962858 77.96% 4
48 SÁBADO 0.09892197 9.89% 1
49 DOMINGO 0.14267511 14.27% 1
50 LUNES 0.8571981 85.72% 5
51 MARTES 0.21848668 21.85% 2
52 MIÉRCOLES 0.02044681 2.04% 0
53 JUEVES 0.82331053 82.33% 4
54 VIERNES 0.01165215 1.17% 0
55 SÁBADO 0.31154244 31.15% 2
56 DOMINGO 0.31828514 31.83% 2
57 LUNES 0.41156417 41.16% 3
58 MARTES 0.69537483 69.54% 4
59 MIÉRCOLES 0.24434508 24.43% 2
60 JUEVES 0.63487893 63.49% 3
2.35
ara un numero de consultas odontológicas de forma diaria

ontecarlo los primeros 60 días

ibución con el de los datos generado

LI LS
0.00% 5.00%
5.01% 15.00%
15.01% 35.00%
35.01% 65.00%
65.01% 85.00%
85.01% 100.00%
MESES NIÑOS(fi) Frec. Rekativ Frec. Relt % Frec. AcumulLI
9 12 0.040 4.00% 4.00% 0%
10 18 0.060 6.00% 10.00% 4.01%
11 44 0.147 14.67% 24.67% 10.01%
12 126 0.420 42.00% 66.67% 24.68%
13 62 0.207 20.67% 87.34% 66.68%
14 28 0.093 9.33% 96.67% 87.35%
15 10 0.033 3.33% 100% 96.68%
300 1.000 100%

Prom. Ponde 12.11

LS
4%
10%
25%
67%
87%
97%
100%
En la tabla siguiente, se muestra un análisis histórico de los últimos 180 días, sobre el número de consultas
Integral en Salud (EBAIS) en una zona de San José.

Consultas Frecuencia
0 265
1 339
2 432
3 401
4 592
5 607
6 459
36.943% 7 227
8 178
3500

Prom. Pond. 3.879

Simulación Consultas
94.922% 1 0.94922807 8
2 0.83005441 6
3 0.75906267 6
4 0.64653702 5
5 0.93738978 7
6 0.7866336 6
7 0.73278394 5
8 0.42899637 4
9 0.48273187 4
10 0.96816945 8
11 0.8682231 6
12 0.23713322 2
13 0.17092645 1
14 0.08789878 1
15 0.49187948 4
16 0.96371121 8
17 0.9590096 8
18 0.50363585 4
19 0.07952022 1
20 0.4375333 4
21 0.85650295 6
22 0.30161129 3
23 0.74008324 5
24 0.37832859 3
25 0.85968283 6
26 0.81705067 6
27 0.13639372 1
28 0.09533716 1
29 0.91013635 7
30 0.08094026 1
31 0.78241404 6
32 0.06823522 0
33 0.50526585 4
34 0.80615775 6
35 0.93404287 7
36 0.56358489 4
37 0.10273281 1
38 0.04721351 0
39 0.13365049 1
40 0.83817862 6
41 0.81868924 6
42 0.79299648 6
43 0.52410759 4
44 0.82645213 6
45 0.42972778 4
46 0.11273408 1
47 0.39371473 3
48 0.99143322 8
49 0.60635658 5
50 0.70132482 5
51 0.70330945 5
52 0.80794169 6
53 0.42915427 4
54 0.40680744 3
55 0.49806377 4
56 0.72326434 5
57 0.38992552 3
58 0.81924905 6
59 0.77847166 6
60 0.39136685 3
61 0.08518725 1
62 0.22078786 2
63 0.02711326 0
64 0.73308443 5
65 0.66964502 5
66 0.77283346 6
67 0.830482 6
68 0.95170553 8
69 0.83114377 6
70 0.18919351 2
71 0.9330032 7
72 0.02247203 0
73 0.63551141 5
74 0.37600358 3
75 0.15167153 1
76 0.05066337 0
77 0.31207569 3
78 0.04361149 0
79 0.83503267 6
80 0.92040184 7
81 0.02587331 0
82 0.90419402 7
83 0.3762153 3
 84 0.00886523 0
85 0.13267744 1
86 0.3132163 3
87 0.23628288 2
88 0.37375161 3
89 0.59991167 5
90 0.91955425 7
91 0.29809086 3
92 0.88111171 6
93 0.41632553 4
94 0.11826889 1
95 0.77518577 6
96 0.30375064 3
97 0.63750006 5
98 0.45358342 4
99 0.69958048 5
100 0.28088366 2
101 0.02053653 0
102 0.71019049 5
103 0.19943991 2
104 0.79248906 6
105 0.02290673 0
106 0.06244396 0
107 0.13526702 1
108 0.65380247 5
109 0.37164452 3
110 0.60099981 5
111 0.46411163 4
112 0.39881905 3
113 0.4441025 4
114 0.17384042 2
115 0.31182188 3
116 0.72964545 5
117 0.29927537 3
118 0.17097656 1
119 0.10085058 1
120 0.70530957 5
121 0.31539477 3
122 0.62293308 5
123 0.53678433 4
124 0.01608618 0
125 0.79440264 6
126 0.1148484 1
127 0.15413785 1
128 0.5692273 4
129 0.23509471 2
130 0.54732495 4
131 0.15932716 1
132 0.09832226 1
133 0.69806251 5
134 0.33047373 3
135 0.64164083 5
136 0.63136432 5
137 0.17055576 1
138 0.71544997 5
139 0.0038484 0
140 0.83319856 6
141 0.40751211 3
142 0.76738667 6
143 0.20098743 2
144 0.90815278 7
145 0.40132029 3
146 0.40219632 3
147 0.46400134 4
148 0.29170152 2
149 0.14700861 1
150 0.16162194 1
151 0.31298 3
152 0.30540534 3
153 0.98292506 8
154 0.66924182 5
155 0.33035087 3
156 0.15903933 1
157 0.91920584 7
158 0.12735227 1
159 0.0595029 0
160 0.40928614 3
161 0.95284598 8
162 0.73518878 5
163 0.40596084 3
164 0.94460046 7
165 0.41141905 4
166 0.98561376 8
167 0.25248122 2
168 0.30980686 3
169 0.46888021 4
170 0.34073273 3
171 0.58537805 5
172 0.19271859 2
173 0.49151041 4
174 0.04947049 0
175 0.15519884 1
176 0.31994667 3
177 0.89070791 7
178 0.24776231 2
179 0.01760466 0
180 0.31773489 3
3.711
días, sobre el número de consultas mensuales, realizadas a un Equipo Básico de Atención
(EBAIS) en una zona de San José.

Frec.rel. Frec.rel.% Frec.acum. L.I. L.S.

0.076 7.571% 7.571% 0 7.571%
0.097 9.686% 17.257% 7.572% 17.257%
0.123 12.343% 29.600% 17.258% 29.600%
0.115 11.457% 41.057% 29.601% 41.057%
0.169 16.914% 57.971% 41.058% 57.971%
0.173 17.343% 75.314% 57.972% 75.314%
0.131 13.114% 88.429% 75.315% 88.429%
0.065 6.486% 94.914% 88.430% 94.914%
0.051 5.086% 100.000% 94.915% 100.000%

Prom. Simulación Costo consult $66.00

3.711 Año 365
Tipo de Camb ₡ 608.00

Costo Total una año de atención

₡ 54,355,605.33
Número de
Probabilidad
llegadas
Frec.rel.% Frec.acum. L.I. L.S.
1 0.37 37% 37% 0% 37.00%
2 0.42 42% 79% 37.01% 79.00%
3 0.21 21% 100% 79.01% 100.0%
1
Prom Ponderado 1.75

Simulación Llegadas
1 0.00195636 1
2 0.65508397 1
3 0.54121243 1
4 0.17445194 1
5 0.46950195 1
6 0.38397743 1
7 0.97827912 1
8 0.12684031 1
9 0.78263121 1
10 0.2506271 1
11 0.36985321 1
12 0.37365401 1
13 0.54350242 1
14 0.75617824 1
15 0.35171531 1
16 0.79567649 1
17 0.02377391 1
18 0.99180354 1
19 0.89498596 1
20 0.52183554 1
21 0.26412642 1
22 0.69066683 1
23 0.40591279 1
24 0.7884947 1
25 0.07030399 1
26 0.99735926 1
27 0.82071377 1
28 0.56698639 1
29 0.10332425 1
30 0.88506867 1
31 0.87508473 1
32 0.11236525 1
33 0.92834663 1
34 0.96707949 1
35 0.79198224 1
36 0.67228568 1
37 0.25152372 1
38 0.35462935 1
39 0.42349657 1
40 0.83590637 1
41 0.86488256 1
42 0.03078681 1
43 0.0078069 1
44 0.03903844 1
45 0.15176951 1
46 0.44963515 1
47 0.53922066 1
48 0.83668423 1
49 0.52134364 1
50 0.93654236 1
51 0.99873098 1
52 0.7994325 1
53 0.43497991 1
54 0.40352851 1
55 0.32162761 1
56 0.33824455 1
57 0.64834518 1
58 0.85452229 1
59 0.65970987 1
60 0.07736846 1
61 0.79038541 1
62 0.7713102 1
63 0.39226236 1
64 0.4961853 1
65 0.72714581 1
66 0.71769854 1
67 0.46275283 1
68 0.72775529 1
69 0.73656893 1
70 0.45831753 1
71 0.01417733 1
72 0.00614116 1
73 0.38238134 1
74 0.87032338 1
75 0.87440246 1
76 0.13817422 1
77 0.37352936 1
78 0.45334811 1
79 0.73666315 1
80 0.95640463 1
81 0.50210293 1
82 0.96392786 1
83 0.45231761 1
 84 0.61999452 1
85 0.61617502 1
86 0.28508434 1
87 0.13624628 1
88 0.04301927 1
89 0.47019069 1
90 0.67126813 1
91 0.01868039 1
92 0.77506413 1
93 0.90468381 1
94 0.28428652 1
95 0.97228615 1
96 0.63760621 1
97 0.22230179 1
98 0.09142305 1
99 0.15052141 1
100 0.54913652 1
101 0.09342416 1
102 0.83440188 1
103 0.35912004 1
104 0.63946407 1
105 0.80824218 1
106 0.87865942 1
107 0.30675254 1
108 0.50982372 1
109 0.8100958 1
110 0.11147399 1
111 0.47070867 1
112 0.72036961 1
113 0.61920215 1
114 0.0634452 1
115 0.03187153 1
116 0.28050242 1
117 0.67102247 1
118 0.77768855 1
119 0.33553695 1
120 0.1793514 1
121 0.4440767 1
122 0.67769963 1
123 0.4646117 1
124 0.4631177 1
125 0.57144313 1
126 0.40328272 1
127 0.27240272 1
128 0.59958101 1
129 0.82885313 1
130 0.79596563 1
131 0.47582679 1
132 0.69197593 1
133 0.20908126 1
134 0.72510247 1
135 0.14305222 1
136 0.53657983 1
137 0.91839417 1
138 0.08598308 1
139 0.51393758 1
140 0.16587118 1
141 0.68457912 1
142 0.72169842 1
143 0.71795081 1
144 0.06306597 1
145 0.82750589 1
146 0.6930872 1
147 0.39386555 1
148 0.24925278 1
149 0.64358886 1
150 0.5154907 1
151 0.34425392 1
152 0.12189018 1
153 0.53492759 1
154 0.00451676 1
155 0.60180617 1
156 0.31206937 1
157 0.66315019 1
158 0.37202271 1
159 0.95894223 1
160 0.08645454 1
161 0.34221637 1
162 0.81241704 1
163 0.03459064 1
164 0.69006137 1
165 0.30170126 1
166 0.44924266 1
167 0.15650533 1
168 0.48828802 1
169 0.43198505 1
170 0.44574589 1
171 0.954302 1
172 0.98928612 1
173 0.048728 1
174 0.41276235 1
175 0.03884954 1
176 0.65693453 1
177 0.54195304 1
178 0.41433453 1
179 0.02635206 1
180 0.56345152 1
181 0.91140838 1
182 0.13994404 1
183 0.25048848 1
184 0.95554799 1
185 0.14798576 1
186 0.42005169 1
187 0.18283402 1
188 0.43453737 1
189 0.38532403 1
190 0.48045377 1
191 0.67128338 1
192 0.26471523 1
193 0.41197874 1
194 0.82542863 1
195 0.93274836 1
196 0.05977763 1
197 0.8248641 1
198 0.01097787 1
199 0.41925562 1
200 0.79268112 1
201 0.02925408 1
202 0.1212468 1
203 0.82664414 1
204 0.6050603 1
205 0.73005647 1
206 0.53510832 1
207 0.11637318 1
208 0.07495843 1
209 0.67709897 1
210 0.84820029 1
211 0.70868354 1
212 0.03830208 1
213 0.27423938 1
214 0.44489711 1
215 0.61929782 1
216 0.10262202 1
217 0.60312827 1
218 0.85551607 1
219 0.03046659 1
220 0.65497338 1
221 0.7158313 1
222 0.99359244 1
223 0.5109261 1
224 0.04864778 1
225 0.69959729 1
226 0.5887328 1
227 0.48095889 1
228 0.20363344 1
229 0.55781664 1
230 0.80570632 1
231 0.50279031 1
232 0.152367 1
233 0.62017962 1
234 0.33295474 1
235 0.84956024 1
236 0.84447955 1
237 0.19620852 1
238 0.82958595 1
239 0.94287732 1
240 0.44356607 1
241 0.24751645 1
242 0.57994953 1
243 0.81749221 1
244 0.12483023 1
245 0.23376084 1
246 0.4152493 1
247 0.21682354 1
248 0.46674098 1
249 0.59252988 1
250 0.52017801 1
251 0.66105558 1
252 0.58873817 1
253 0.25211726 1
254 0.09849195 1
255 0.99194099 1
256 0.47061943 1
257 0.56262401 1
258 0.70885896 1
259 0.49111042 1
260 0.60481685 1
261 0.03362157 1
262 0.87542791 1
263 0.60104249 1
264 0.62976303 1
265 0.46281759 1
266 0.31854235 1
267 0.51292073 1
268 0.05749106 1
269 0.18602079 1
270 0.95824561 1
271 0.09179769 1
272 0.75244858 1
273 0.75174335 1
274 0.33999079 1
275 0.12472566 1
276 0.55373813 1
277 0.90798803 1
278 0.03878591 1
279 0.40141871 1
280 0.85116174 1
281 0.96269227 1
282 0.20087463 1
283 0.07486587 1
284 0.55500966 1
285 0.14954348 1
286 0.6685345 1
287 0.00077715 1
288 0.49976525 1
289 0.09091067 1
290 0.24553444 1
291 0.08312027 1
292 0.21153071 1
293 0.23954365 1
294 0.80448857 1
295 0.72599516 1
296 0.22411714 1
297 0.70653774 1
298 0.85183881 1
299 0.90124624 1
300 0.87303165 1
301 0.10149966 1
302 0.74747119 1
303 0.27439397 1
304 0.21059206 1
305 0.39992459 1
306 0.39446982 1
307 0.95196364 1
308 0.66426617 1
309 0.45930101 1
310 0.96220847 1
311 0.00424713 1
312 0.69743205 1
313 0.17341028 1
314 0.24937604 1
315 0.90940668 1
316 0.13203313 1
317 0.58402675 1
318 0.21362469 1
319 0.39262147 1
320 0.11767208 1
321 0.71241891 1
322 0.96106993 1
323 0.77989462 1
324 0.4217483 1
325 0.43245856 1
326 0.41338916 1
327 0.90912894 1
328 0.07757027 1
329 0.32895823 1
330 0.83755127 1
331 0.74949582 1
332 0.83364163 1
333 0.80962903 1
334 0.37328437 1
335 0.11760521 1
336 0.82159635 1
337 0.44162246 1
338 0.92859757 1
339 0.56712937 1
340 0.38806265 1
341 0.65319232 1
342 0.87156139 1
343 0.22893027 1
344 0.43168205 1
345 0.71681744 1
346 0.42957105 1
347 0.77459083 1
348 0.15231557 1
349 0.47044554 1
350 0.42266403 1
351 0.14538836 1
352 0.8084164 1
353 0.42722457 1
354 0.30863734 1
355 0.19874586 1
356 0.14572107 1
357 0.51490913 1
358 0.17710797 1
359 0.27475406 1
360 0.76975434 1
6.23
 Numero de descargas Probabilidad Frecuencia Rel % Frec Acumulada
1 0.3333 33.33% 33%
2 0.3333 33.33% 66.66%
3 0.3333 33.33% 99.99%

Prom Ponderado 1.00

Simulación Descargas Rezagados

1 0.192037278253995 1 0
2 0.971518419913933 2 0
3 0.18740800700007 1 0
4 0.659478597065856 2 0
5 0.669001525414257 2 0
6 0.891404544830519 2 0
7 0.191501769597058 1 0
8 0.488646341770375 2 0
9 0.652225809014361 2 0
10 0.479499657365661 2 0
11 0.503426715248 2 0
12 0.170335960834607 1 0
13 0.172484499453571 1 0
14 0.700152238293664 2 0
15 0.606129613438381 2 0
16 0.658805962514608 2 0
17 0.343917243425559 2 0
18 0.307504351445729 1 0
19 0.821663514721559 2 0
20 0.416913347792126 2 0
21 0.538942185553718 2 0
22 0.480955783545004 2 0
23 0.660938173276279 2 0
24 0.0934758837025992 1 0
25 0.973764955951832 2 0
26 0.715738393336282 2 0
27 0.501844972599129 2 0
28 0.607839190871673 2 0
29 0.338118110880617 2 0
30 0.802064172372732 2 0
31 0.0446240316981714 1 0
32 0.127744537530668 1 0
33 0.599110749934104 2 0
34 0.998053685291435 2 0
35 0.734367980684633 2 0
36 0.522746625108709 2 0
37 0.611717300196297 2 0
38 0.0998400530185142 1 0
39 0.207726667058354 1 0
40 0.29374655640794 1 0
41 0.0686742289313186 1 0
42 0.231758415100052 1 0
43 0.0864498153101261 1 0
44 0.450615533737941 2 0
45 0.586887129939283 2 0
46 0.833652389615571 2 0
47 0.899030455173877 2 0
48 0.549015033298938 2 0
49 0.657974919443831 2 0
50 0.809136680339346 2 0
51 0.729552600486217 2 0
52 0.217895479308582 1 0
53 0.655633363284286 2 0
54 0.198075060417258 1 0
55 0.856556860402234 2 0
56 0.41470262083071 2 0
57 0.686962057996952 2 0
58 0.173065953118981 1 0
59 0.345809107860834 2 0
60 0.650834457459453 2 0
61 0.100199209123807 1 0
62 0.785296390429658 2 0
63 0.203668895296883 1 0
64 0.0470129894856243 1 0
65 0.203769831055529 1 0
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1.67 4.569
9.138888888889
LI LS
0% 33%
33.34% 66.66%
66.67% 99.99%