Paso 1

Generación
PIB Anual
Año Bruta Anual
(M€)
GWh Causal cuadrática
1 73870 36963 1.6
2 79768 38566
3 89863 39882 1.4
f(x) = 0.634464916352 x² − 0.602679117036 x
4 123339 41241 R² = 0.961292885216357

GWh pu
1.2
5 116646 43185
6 142034 44554 1.0
7 143688 45637
8 154674 47111 0.8
9 171103 48971
10 190831 50930 0.6
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
11 191581 55938
12 196070 58209.9 PIB pu
13 208888 64898.2
14 228888 68681.2

Paso 0

PIB Anual Generación

Año
pu Bruta Anual pu
1 0.478 0.785 Causal lineal
2 0.516 0.819 1.6
3 0.581 0.847
4 0.797 0.875 1.4
GWh pu

5 0.754 0.917 f(x) = 0.609257024821446 x + 0.

1.2
6 0.918 0.946 R² = 0.885384425787169
7 0.929 0.969 1.0
8 1.000 1.000
0.8
9 1.106 1.039
10 1.234 1.081 0.6
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
11 1.239 1.187
12 1.268 1.236 PIB pu
13 1.351 1.378
14 1.480 1.458
1.600
 Paso 2 J

ausal cuadrática
1 1 0.478 0.228
2 1 0.516 0.266
x² − 0.602679117036 x + 0.962216513267 3 1 0.581 0.338
57 4 1 0.797 0.636
5 1 0.754 0.569
6 1 0.918 0.843
7 1 0.929 0.863
8 1 1.000 1.000
9 1 1.106 1.224
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 10 1 1.234 1.522
11 1 1.239 1.534
PIB pu 12 1 1.268 1.607
13 1 1.351 1.824
14 1 1.480 2.190

Paso 3 Jt

1 2 3 4 5
Causal lineal 1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 0.478 0.516 0.581 0.797 0.754
3 0.228 0.266 0.338 0.636 0.569

09257024821446 x + 0.444218268614195 Paso 4 Jt*J

85384425787169
1 2 3
1 14.000 13.650 14.643 1
2 13.650 14.643 16.827 2
3 14.643 16.827 20.292 3
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

PIB pu Paso 6 k = Inv(%)*Jt

1 2 3 4 5
1 1.458 1.159 0.701 -0.347 -0.196
2 -2.766 -2.105 -1.095 1.150 0.837
3 1.253 0.922 0.419 -0.672 -0.525

Paso 7 k*y
1 0.962 a
2 -0.603 b = ሾ𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝐽ሿ
𝑥ො −1 ∙ 𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝑦 = 𝑘 𝑦
3 0.634 c
Paso 8 Varianza historica
y yg ∆y^2 Vh
1 0.785 0.819 0.001 0.0018
2 0.819 0.820 0.000 0.181%
3 0.847 0.826 0.000
4 0.875 0.885 0.000
5 0.917 0.869 0.002
6 0.946 0.944 0.000
7 0.969 0.950 0.000
8 1.000 0.994 0.000
9 1.039 1.072 0.001
10 1.081 1.184 0.011
11 1.187 1.189 0.000
12 1.236 1.218 0.000
13 1.378 1.305 0.005
14 1.458 1.460 0.000
 y = a+ b•x+c•x2

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
0.918 0.929 1.000 1.106 1.234 1.239 1.268 1.351 1.480
0.843 0.863 1.000 1.224 1.522 1.534 1.607 1.824 2.190

Paso 5 Inv(Jt*J)

1 2 3
7.099 -15.506 7.735
-15.506 35.320 -18.098
7.735 -18.098 9.475

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-0.617 -0.630 -0.672 -0.588 -0.258 -0.240 -0.127 0.266 1.092
1.666 1.686 1.715 1.418 0.521 0.476 0.184 -0.816 -2.872
-0.894 -0.901 -0.888 -0.691 -0.171 -0.146 0.018 0.574 1.701

1 ∙ 𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝑦 = 𝑘 𝑦 y = a+ b•x+c•x2
 Paso 9 kt Paso 10 k*kt
1 2 3 1 2 3
1 1.458 -2.766 1.253 1 7.099 -15.506 7.735
2 1.159 -2.105 0.922 2 -15.506 35.320 -18.098
3 0.701 -1.095 0.419 3 7.735 -18.098 9.475
4 -0.347 1.150 -0.672
5 -0.196 0.837 -0.525 Paso 11 Cov( xg)
6 -0.617 1.666 -0.894 0.013 -0.028 0.014
7 -0.630 1.686 -0.901 -0.028 0.064 -0.033
8 -0.672 1.715 -0.888 0.014 -0.033 0.017
9 -0.588 1.418 -0.691
10 -0.258 0.521 -0.171
11 -0.240 0.476 -0.146 Paso 12 y(1,6) (Via A)
12 -0.127 0.184 0.018 1.6 1.622 1.622
13 0.266 -0.816 0.574
14 1.092 -2.872 1.701 Paso 13 A
1.000 1.600

Paso 14 A* Cov(xg)
0.004 -0.010

Paso 15 Var(1,6) Sdv

0.0129 0.114

Paso 16 CV(1,6)
7.00%
2.56

0.005
 Paso 1
Año Año GWh
1 1951 231
2 1952 249 Serie cuadrática
3 1953 269 400
4 1954 290 f(x) = 1.0238095238 x² + 14.761904762 x
5 1955 314 R² =350
0.99986100058047

GWh pu
6 1956 341 300
7 1957 370
8 1958 398 250
9 1959 ¿?
200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Año pu

Paso 0
Año Año pu GWh pu
1951 1 231
1952 2 249
1953 3 269 Causal lineal
1954 4 290
400.0
1955 5 314 f(x) = 23.9761904761905 x + 19
350.0
GWh pu

1956 6 341 R² = 0.992621284335059

1957 7 370 300.0
1958 8 398
250.0
1959 9 ¿?
200.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.

PIB pu
 Paso 2 J(x)

1 1 1 1
erie cuadrática 2 4 2 1
3 9 3 1
8 x² + 14.761904762 x + 215.21428571 4 16 4 1
8047 5 25 5 1 y = 1,0238 x2 + 1
6 36 6 1
7 49 7 1
8 64 8 1
9
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
Año pu 12
13
14

Paso 3 Jt
1 2 3 4 5
1 1 4 9 16 25
2 1 2 3 4 5
Causal lineal 3 1 1 1 1 1

761904761905 x + 199.857142857143 Paso 4 Jt*J

2621284335059
1 2 3
1 8772 1296 204 1
2 1296 204 36 2
3 204 36 8 3
.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

PIB pu Paso 6 k = Inv(%)*Jt

1 2 3 4 5
1 0.042 0.006 -0.018 -0.030 -0.030
2 -0.458 -0.113 0.125 0.256 0.280
3 1.125 0.482 0.018 -0.268 -0.375

Paso 7 xg = k*y
1 1.0238 a = ሾ𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝐽ሿ
𝑥ො −1 ∙ 𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝑦 = 𝑘 𝑦
2 14.7619 b
3 215.2143 c y = 1,0238 x2 + 14,762 x + 215,21

Paso 8 Varianza historica

y yg ∆y^2 Vh
 1 231.000 231.000 0.000 0.5635
2 249.000 248.833 0.028
3 269.000 268.714 0.082
4 290.000 290.643 0.413 Sh
5 314.000 314.619 0.383 0.751
6 341.000 340.643 0.128
7 370.000 368.714 1.653
8 398.000 398.833 0.694
9
10
11
12
13
14
y = 1,0238 x2 + 14,762 x + 215,21

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
36 49 64
6 7 8
1 1 1

Paso 5 Inv(Jt*J)

1 2 3
0.006 -0.054 0.089
-0.054 0.506 -0.911
0.089 -0.911 1.946

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-0.018 0.006 0.042
0.196 0.006 -0.292
-0.304 -0.054 0.375

∙ 𝐽𝑇 ∙ 𝑦 = 𝑘 𝑦
14,762 x + 215,21

Paso 9 kt Paso 10 k*kt

1 2 3 1 2 3
1 0.042 -0.458 1.125 1 0.006 -0.054 0.089
2 0.006 -0.113 0.482 2 -0.054 0.506 -0.911
3 -0.018 0.125 0.018 3 0.089 -0.911 1.946
4 -0.030 0.256 -0.268
5 -0.030 0.280 -0.375 Paso 11 Cov( xg)
6 -0.018 0.196 -0.304 0.003 -0.030 0.050
7 0.006 0.006 -0.054 -0.030 0.285 -0.513
8 0.042 -0.292 0.375 0.050 -0.513 1.097
9
10
11 Paso 12 y(1,6) (Via A)
12 9 431.0 431.0
13
14 Paso 13 A
81.000 9.000

Paso 14 A* Cov(xg)
0.050 -0.392

Paso 15 Var(9) Sdv(9)

113.364 10.647

Paso 16 CV(9)
2.5%
 1

0.553

Var(9) = A(9) * Cov(xg) * At(9)