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ESCUELA DE NUTRICION DIETETICA
VARIABLE ALEATORIA Y
DISTRIBUCION DE PROBABILIDAD
Ejemplo
VARIABLE ALEATORIA
CLASIFICACION
Las variables aleatorias se clasifican en general en discretas y
continuas. Se utilizan letras mayúsculas X, Y, ... para designar
variables aleatorias, y las respectivas minúsculas (x, y, ...) para
designar valores concretos de las mismas.
Variable que solo puede tomar ciertos valores claramente separados, que resulta
de contar algún elemento de interés. Generalmente toma valores enteros.
Ejemplo:
Y : {9 ,10 ,11,12 }
FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
i) f ( x ) ≥0 ii) ∑ f ( x i )=0
Valores x i de X x0 x1 x2 x3 … xn
Probabilidad
p0 p1 p2 p3 … pn
pi=P [X =x ]
Si X es una variable aleatoria discreta que puede asumir valores X 1, X2, X3, …, Xn
con probabilidades de P1, P2, P3, …, Pn, se define como valor esperado o media,
como sigue:
n
μ= E ( X )=∑ ¿ ¿
i=1
n
σ 2=∑ [ ( x i−u )2 .¿ p(x i )]¿
i=1
2
σ 2=E ( X 2 ) −[ E( X )]
Ejemplo 1:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X=x ) 0.04 0.5 0.2 0.40 0.15 0.06
Encontrar:
Solución:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X=x ) 0.04 0.15 0.2 0.40 0.15 0.06
a)
0 0.04 0.04
1 0.15 0.19
2 0.20 0.39
3 0.40 0.79
4 0.15 0.94
5 0.06 1.0
Total 1.00
B)
n
μ= E ( X )=∑ ¿ ¿
i=1
n
μ= E ( X )=∑ ¿ ¿
i=1
E ( X ) = 2.65
σ 2=
Ejemplo 2:
X = ventas de bebidas
X(precio ) 50 75 90
P (X ) 30% =0.3 50% = 0.5 20% =0.2
70.5 212.25
DISTRIBUCIONES IMPORTANTES
V. discretas:
Binomial; Poisson
Continuas:
FUNCION DE PROBABILIDAD
n!
P (X=x) = x ! ( n−x ) !
x
P q
n−x
Fórmula:
n! x n−x
P ( X=x )= p q
x ! ( n−x ) !
Donde:
P : Probabilidad de éxito .
X : N ° de éxito . x : 0,1,2, … n.
CARACTERÍSTICAS
1. MEDIA Y VARIANZA
E ( x )=nq … Media
V ( x )=npq … varianza
2. PROPIEDADES
A lo más P( x ≤ a)
Ejemplo 1
Se evalúa el estado nutricional de tres niños menores de 5 años, elegidos al
azar de una comunidad. ¿Calcular la probabilidad de que:
A) Ocurra exactamente un niño malnutrido
B) Ocurra exactamente dos niños malnutridos
C) Ocurra a lo más dos niños malnutridos
n!
Formula: P ( X=x )= p x q n−x
x ! ( n−x ) !
3! 1 3−1
P( X= 1) = 1! ( 3−1 ) ! 0 . 5 0 . 5
6
= 1(2) (0.5) ( 0.25 )
= 0.375
Interpretación
a) P( X= 1)= P ( x ≤ 1 )- P( x ≤0)
= 0.5000 – 0.1250
= 0.375
b ) P( X= 2)
n! x n− x
p q
x ! ( n−x ) !
C ) P( X ≤2 ) =0.8750
Aplicando formula
3! 0 3
P( X= 0) = 0 ! ( 3−0 ) ! 0 .5 0 . 5 =
3! 1 2
P( X= 1) = 0 ! ( 3−1 ) ! 0. 5 0 .5 =
3! 2 1
P( X= 2) = 2! ( 3−2 ) ! 0 . 5 0 .5
= Total
En donde:
X : Número de veces que ocurre el evento
e : 2.71828
μ = λ (Media)
σ = λ (Varianza)
2
X 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0 0.9950 0.9900 0.9802 0.9705 0.9608 0.9608 0.9512 0.9418 0.9231 0.9139
1 1 0.9999 0.9998 0.9995 0.9992 0.9988 0.9983 0.9977 0.9969 0.9962
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0000 0.999900 0.9999
3
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066 0.3679
1 0.9953 0.9824 0.9630 0.9384 0.9098 0.9181 0.8442 0.8088 0.7725 0.7358
2 0.9998 0.9988 0.9963 0.9920 0.9856 0.9769 0.9659 0.9526 0.9372 0.9197
3 1.0000 0.9999 0.9996 0.9992 0.9982 0.9967 0.9943 0.9909 0.9866 0.9810
4 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9993 0.9986 0.9977 0.9963
5 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9994
6 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999
7
X 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
0 0.3329 0.3012 0.2725 0.2466 0.2231 0.2019 0.1827 1.653 0.1496 0.1353
1 0.6991 0.6626 0.6268 0.5918 0.5578 0.5249 0.4933 0.4628 0.4338 0.4060
2 0.9005 0.8795 0.8571 0.8335 0.8088 0.7833 0.7573 0.7306 0.7038 0.8767
3 0.9743 0.9662 0.9569 0.9463 0.9343 0.9212 0.9069 0.8913 0.8748 0.8571
4 0.9946 0.9922 0.9893 0.9858 0.9814 0.9763 0.9705 0.9636 0.9560 0.9473
5 0.9991 0.9984 0.9977 0.9969 0.9855 0.9939 0.9921 0.9896 0.9869 0.9834
6 0.9999 0.9996 0.9996 0.9995 0.9990 0.9986 0.9982 0.9974 0.9967 0.9954
7 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9994 0.9994 0.9988
8 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997
9 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
X 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
0 0.1225 0.1108 0.1003 0.0907 0.0821 0.0743 0.0672 0.0608 0.0550 0.0498
1 0.3797 0.3546 0.3309 0.3084 0.2873 0.2674 0.2487 0.2311 0.2146 0.1992
2 0.6497 0.6727 0.5961 0.5697 0.5438 0.5184 0.4937 0.4695 0.446 0.4232
3 0.8387 0.8193 0.7994 0.7787 0.7576 0.7360 0.7142 0.6920 0.6697 0.6472
4 0.9379 0.9275 0.9163 0.9041 0.8912 0.8774 0.863 0.8477 0.8319 0.8152
5 0.9796 0.9751 0.9701 0.9643 0.9580 0.9509 0.9434 0.9349 0.9259 0.916
6 0.9942 0.9925 0.9907 0.9884 0.9858 0.9828 0.9795 0.9756 0.9714 0.9664
7 0.9986 0.998 0.9975 0.9967 0.9957 0.9946 0.9934 0.9919 0.9902 0.9880
8 0.9996 0.9995 0.9994 0.9992 0.9938 0.9984 0.9981 0.9976 0.9970 0.9961
9 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997 0.9995 0.9995 0.9994 0.9992 0.9988
10 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9996
11 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999
12 1.0000
X 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
0 0.0450 0.0408 0.0369 0.0334 0.0302 0.0273 0.0247 0.0224 0.0202 0.0183
1 0.1847 0.1712 0.1586 0.1469 0.1359 0.1257 0.1162 0.1074 0.0991 0.0916
2 0.4012 0.3799 0.3594 0.3398 0.3209 0.3028 0.2854 0.2689 0.2530 0.2381
3 0.6249 0.6025 0.5803 0.5584 0.5367 0.5153 0.4941 0.4735 0.4531 0.4335
4 0.7893 0.7806 0.76626 0.7442 0.7255 0.7065 0.6872 0.6679 0.6482 0.6289
5 0.9058 0.8946 0.8829 0.8706 0.8577 0.8442 0.8301 0.8156 0.8004 0.7852
6 0.9613 0.9554 0.9491 0.9422 0.9348 0.9268 0.9182 0.9092 0.8993 0.8894
7 0.9859 0.9832 0.9803 0.9770 0.9733 0.9693 0.9648 0.9600 0.9544 0.9489
8 0.9954 0.9943 0.9932 0.9918 0.9902 0.9884 0.9863 0.9841 0..9813 0.9787
9 0.9987 0.9983 0.9979 0.9974 0.9968 0.9960 0.9952 0.9943 0.9929 0.9919
10 0.9997 0.9996 0.9995 0.9993 0.9990 0.9988 0.9985 0.9982 0.9974 0.9972
11 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997 0.9997 0.9996 0.9995 0.9991 0.9991
12 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997 0.9997
13 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999
14 1.0000 1.0000
X 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0
0 0.0166 0.0150 0.0136 0.0123 0.0111 0.0101 0.0091 0.0082 0.0074 0.0067
1 0.0845 0.0778 0.0719 0.0663 0.0611 0.0563 0.0518 0.0477 0..0439 0.0404
2 0.2238 0.2103 0.1973 0.1851 0.1736 0.1626 0.1523 0.1425 0.1333 0.1246
3 0.4142 0.3955 0.3771 0.3594 0.3423 0.3257 0.3097 0.2942 0.2793 0.2650
4 0.6093 0.5899 0.5704 0.5511 0.5321 0.5132 0.4946 0.4762 0.4582 0.4405
5 0.7593 0.7532 0.7366 0.7198 0.7029 0.6857 0.6684 0.6509 0.6335 0.6160
6 0.8786 0.8675 0.8557 0.8435 0.8310 0.8180 0.8046 0.7907 0.7767 0.7622
7 0.9426 0.9361 0.9289 0.9213 0.9134 0.9049 0.8960 0.8866 0.8768 0.8666
8 0.9754 0.9721 0.9682 0.9641 0.9597 0.9549 0.9497 0.9441 0.9383 0.9319
9 0.9904 0.9889 0.9870 0.9850 0.9829 0.9804 0.9777 0.9748 0.9717 0.9682
10 0.9965 0.9970 0.9951 0.9942 0.9933 0.9922 0.9909 0.9895 0.9881 0.9863
11 0.9988 0.9987 0.9983 0.9979 0.9976 0.9971 0.9965 0.9959 0.9954 0.9945
12 0.9996 0.9996 0.9994 0.9993 0.9992 0.999 0.9987 0.9985 0.9984 0.9979
13 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9997 0.9995 0.9994 0.9995 0.9992
14 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9998 0.9999 0.9998
15 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
X 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
0 0.0061 0.0055 0.0050 0.0045 0.0041 0.0037 0.0033 0.0030 0.0027 0.0025
1 0.0372 0.0342 0.0315 0.0289 0.0266 0.0244 0.0224 0.0206 0.0189 0.0174
2 0.1165 0.1088 0.1016 0.0948 0.0884 0.0824 0.0768 0.0715 0.0666 0.0620
3 0.2513 0.2381 0.2255 0.2133 0.2017 0.1906 0.1801 0.1700 0.1604 0.1512
4 0.4232 0.4062 0.3896 0.3733 0.3575 0.3421 0.3273 0.3128 0.2987 0.2851
5 0.5985 0.5810 0.5636 0.5461 0.5289 0.5118 0.4951 0.4784 0.4619 0.4457
6 0.7475 0.7325 0.7173 0.7016 0.6860 0.6702 0.6545 0.6385 0.6224 0.6063
7 0.8561 0.8450 0.8336 0.8216 0.8094 0.7969 0.7843 0.7711 0.7577 0.7440
8 0.9253 0.9181 0.9107 0.9026 00.8942 0.8856 0.8768 0.8673 0.8575 0.8473
9 0.9645 0.9604 0.9561 0.9512 0.9462 0.9408 0.9354 0.9293 0.9228 0.9161
10 0.9845 0.9824 0.9802 0.9774 0.9747 0.9717 0.9688 0.96652 0.9615 0.9574
11 0.9938 0.9928 0.9918 0.9903 0.9890 0.9874 0.9861 0.9842 0.9822 0.9799
12 0.9977 0.9973 0.9969 0.9961 0.9955 0.9947 0.9943 0.9934 0.9924 0.9912
13 0.9992 0.9991 0.9990 0.9985 0.9983 0.9979 0.9979 0.9975 0.9970 0.9964
14 0.9997 0.9997 0.9996 0.9994 0.9994 0.9992 0.9994 0.9992 0.9989 0.9986
15 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9998 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9996 0.9995
16 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
X 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
0 0.0022 0.0020 0.0018 0.0017 0.0015 0.0014 0.0012 0.0011 0.0010 0.0009
1 0.0159 0.0146 0.0134 0.0123 0.0113 0.0104 0.0094 0.0087 0.0080 0.0073
2 0.0576 0.0536 0.0498 0.0463 0.0431 0.0400 0.0370 0.0345 0.0320 0.0296
3 0.1424 0.1342 0.1263 0.1189 0.1119 0.1052 0.0987 0.0929 0.0872 0.0817
4 0.2718 0.2591 0.2468 0.2351 0.2237 0.2128 0.2021 0.1921 0.1824 0.1729
5 0.4297 0.4140 0.3987 0.3838 0.3691 0.3548 0.3406 0.3270 0.3138 0.3006
6 0.5902 0.5741 0.5582 0.5424 0.5266 0.5110 0.4952 0.4799 0.4648 0.4496
7 0.7301 0.7159 0.7017 0.6874 0.6728 0.6582 0.6432 0.6285 0.6138 0.5986
8 0.8367 0.8258 0.8147 0.8034 0.7916 0.7797 0.7672 0.7548 0.7422 0.7290
9 0.9090 0.9015 0.8938 0.8859 0.8774 0.8688 0.8595 0.8502 0.8407 0.8304
10 0.9531 0.9484 0.9436 0.9387 0.9332 0.9276 0.9213 0.9151 0.9086 0.9014
11 0.9776 0.9749 0.9721 0.9694 0.9662 0.9629 0.9590 0.9552 0.9512 0.9466
12 0.9900 0.9886 0.9871 0.9858 0.9841 0.9823 0.9800 0.9779 0.9757 0.9730
13 0.9958 0.9951 0.9944 0.9939 0.9930 0.9921 0.9908 0.9898 0.9887 0.9872
14 0.9983 0.9980 0.9977 0.9976 0.9971 0.9967 0.9960 0.9956 0.9951 0.9943
15 0.9993 0.9992 0.9991 0.9992 0.9989 0.9987 0.9983 0.9982 0.9980 0.9976
16 0.9998 0.9997 0.9996 0.9997 0.9996 0.9995 0.9993 0.9993 0.9993 0.9990
17 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997
19
1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
X 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.87.7 7.9 8.0 9.0 10
0.000
0 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 4 0.0004 0.0003 0.00012 0.00004
0.003
1 0.0067 0.0061 0.0056 0.0051 0.0047 0.0043 0.0040 6 0.0033 0.0030 0.00123 0.00050
0.016
2 0.0275 0.0255 0.0236 0.0218 0.0203 0.0188 0.0174 1 0.0149 0.0137 0.00623 0.00277
0.048
3 0.0767 0.0719 0.0674 0.0631 0.0592 0.0554 0.0519 5 0.0454 0.0423 0.02123 0.01034
0.111
4 0.1641 0.1555 0.1473 0.1395 0.1321 0.1200 0.1182 7 0.1056 0.0998 0.11569 0.02925
0.210
5 0.2882 0.2759 0.2640 0.2525 0.2415 0.2307 0.2203 3 0.2007 0.1912 0.20678 0.06709
0.338
6 0.4350 0.4204 0.4060 0.3919 0.3782 0.3646 0.3514 5 0.3259 0.3133 0.32390 0.13014
0.481
7 0.5839 0.5890 0.5541 0.5393 0.5247 0.5100 0.4956 3 0.4672 0.4529 0.32390 0.22022
0.620
8 0.7160 0.7027 0.6892 0.6756 0.6620 0.6482 0.6344 5 0.6067 0.5925 0.45565 0.33282
0.729
9 0.8202 0.8097 0.7988 0.7877 0.7764 0.7649 0.7412 1 0.7291 0.7166 0.58741 0.45793
0.825
10 0.8942 0.8867 0.8788 0.8706 0.8622 0.8536 0.8353 8 0.8258 0.8159 0.70599 0.58304
0.902
11 0.9420 0.9371 0.9319 0.9264 0.9207 0.9149 0.9085 0 0.8953 0.8881 0.80301 0.69678
0.945
12 0.9970 0.9674 0.9642 0.9608 0.9573 0.9537 0.9496 4 0.9410 0.9362 0.87577 0.79156
0.971
13 0.9857 0.9842 0.9823 0.9804 0.9784 0.9764 0.9739 4 0.9688 0.9658 0.92615 0.86446
0.985
14 0.9935 0.9928 0.9918 0.9908 0.9897 0.9887 0.9873 9 0.9845 0.9827 0.95853 0.91654
0.993
15 0.9972 0.9969 0.9964 0.9959 0.9954 0.9949 0.9942 4 0.9928 0.9917 0.97796 0.95126
0..998 0.997
16 0.9988 0.9988 5 0.9983 0.9980 0.9979 0.9975 1 0.9969 0.9962 0.98889 0.97296
0.998
17 0.9995 0.9996 0.9994 0.9993 0.9992 0.9992 0.9990 8 0.9988 0.9983 0.99468 0.98572
0.999
18 0.9999 0.9999 0.9998 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998 0.9996 5 0.9995 0.9992 0.99757 0.99281
0.999
19 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 8 0.9998 0.9997 0.99894 0.99655
1.000
20 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0 0.99999 0.9999 0.99956 0.99841
21 1.0000 1.0000 0.99982 0.99930
22 0.99993 0.99970
23 0.99998 0.99984
24 0.99999 0.99995
25 1.00000 0.99998
26 0.99999
27 1.00000
DISTRIBUCIÓN POISSON
Fórmula:
λx e− λ
F ( x )=P ( X =x )=
x!
X =0,1,2,3 … n → Recorrido de la variable
Donde
1. CARACTERÍSTICAS
2. MEDIA Y VARIANZA
μ= λ(Media)
σ 2=λ(Varianza)
σ =√ λ(Desviación estándar )
3. PROPIEDADES
A lo más P( x ≤ a)
Ejemplo 1:
Solución:
= 0.0498 (Tabla )
b) P ( x ≤ 3 )= 0.1991 (Tabla )
Ejemplo 2:
x −λ
λ e
a) P ( x=0 )= x!
30 e−3
= = 0.0498
0!
b) P ( x>3 )= P( x ≥ 4 )
= 1 - P( x ≤3)
= 1 - 0.6472 ( Tabla )
= 0.3528
Ejemplo 3:
Solución
μ = λ = np = 5,000 ( 0.001 ) =5
λ x e−λ
b) P x=10 = x !
( )
310 e−5
= = 0.018
10 !
Usando la tabla de poisson, con λ = 5 tenemos:
P ( x=10 )= P ( X ≤10 )- ( X ≤ 9 )
Donde:
μ = Media Poblacional
σ
2
= Varianza Poblacional
Π = 3.14159...
e = 2.71828…
Z
Zp
Normal Estándar
X−μ
Z= σ , Media μz =0
Varianza σz
2
=1
Z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.8255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7910 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7703 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7795 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9278 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.8406 0.9418 0.9430 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9648 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9700 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9762 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9861 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.985
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9968 0.9871 0.9874 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9990 0.9993 0.9995 0.9997 0.9998 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 1.0000
Fórmula:
Función de densidad
( x−μ
σ )
−1
1 2
f ( x )= e −∞ < ∞
σ √2 π
2
Donde:
μ : Media poblacional
σ 2 :Varianza Poblacional
π : 3.14159
e : 2.71828
CARACTERÍSTICAS
Tiene la forma de una campana.
Es simétrica respecto a su media.
Concede con tres medidas de tendencia central (X= Me= Mo).
El recorrido de la variable −∞ < ∞.
MEDIA Y VARIANZA
Normal estándar:
X−μ
Z= ; Media → μ z=0 ; Varianza →σ 2z =1
σ
PROPIEDADES P( Z ≤ -1 ) = 1 – P(Z ¿ 1)
MANEJO DE TABLA
Ejemplo:
0.0
0.1
Solución:
Z0 1–α
1.65 0.9505
X 0.95
1.64 0.9495
1.65−1.64 0.9505−0.9495
=
x−1.64 0.95−0.9495
0.01 0.001
x−1.64
= 0.0005
X= 1.645 Z 0=1.645
4) Hallar el valor Z 0 tal que P( Z ≤ Z 0 )=0.64
Solución:
Z0 1–α
0.36 0.6406
X 0.64
0.35 0.6368
0.36−0.35 0.6406−0.6368
=
x −0.35 0.64−0.6368
Ejemplo 2
Solución
Datos μ : 12 ;σ :3
X−μ 13−12
P( X ≤ 13 ) = P( σ
≤
3 )
= P ( Z ≤0.33 ) = 0.6293
Ejemplo 3
Solución1 – P(Z ¿ 1)
Observación
9−10 . 5 11−10.5
P( 9 ≤ X ≤ 11 ) = P( 1. 5
≤ Z≤ 1.5 )
= P ( -1 ≤ Z ≤ 0.33 )
= P ( Z ≤ 0.33 ) – [ 1 – P(Z≤ 1 ) ]
= 0.6293 – [ 1 -0.8413 ]
= 0.4706
Interpretación
SOLUCION
Datos μ : 105 ; σ : 10
120−105
a) P ( X ≤ 120 ) = P( Z ≤
10 )
= P ( Z ≤ 1.5 ) = 0.9332
120−105
b) P( X ¿ 115 ) = 1 – P(X ≤
10
)
1)
= 1 – P(Z ≤
= 1 – 0.8413 = 0.1587
Función de densidad
r +1
Γ( )
[ ]
2
2 t (r +1)
1+ −∝<t <∝
f(t)= √π Γ( )
r r 2 ,
2
Función de distribución
∝
F( x 0 ¿=∫ f ( x ) dx
−∝
Esperanza varianza
μ
E(x)=0 v(x)= μ−2
α /2 α /2
−t p tp
α P( t > t p ) =α
tp
P ( t 18 ≤ 2.101 ) = ? 0.975
DISTRIBUCIÓN T - STUDENT
Fórmula:
Función de densidad
r ( 2 )
r +1
[ 1+ ]
t ( )
2 r +1
2
f ( t )= ,−α <t< α
√π r( )
r r
2
CARACTERÍSTICAS
ESPERANZA Y VARIANZA
Esperanza → E ( X )=0
μ
Varianza → v ( x )=
μ−2
PROPIEDADES
P ( t (r) < a ) =F (a)
P ( t (r) > a ) =1−P( Z< a)
P ( t (r) a< z< b )=F ( b )−F (a)
P ( t (r) ← a )=1− p(t (r )< a)
P ( t (r) >−a ) =P ( t (r) <a )
MANEJO DE TABLA
Ejemplo:
1) P ( t 18 ≤ 2.101 ) = ? 0.975 ;
2) P ( t 26 ≤ 0.855 )= 0.8
P ( z> a )=1−P(Z < a)
13 0.128 0.259 0.394 0.538 0.694 0.870 1.079 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 4.221
t 13 1-α
3.012 0.995
2.8 X
2.650 0.99
3.012−2.650 0.995−0.99
=
2.8−2.650 x −0.99
0.362 0.005
0.15
= x−0.99
X= t 13=2.74
Ejemplo:
18 0.127 0.257 0.391 0.534 0.688 0.862 1.067 1.360 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.922
19 0.127 0.257 0.391 0.533 0.688 0.861 1.066 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.883
0.126 0.253 0.385 0.524 0.674 0.842 1.036 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.291
0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005 0.0005
1-α : Nivel de significancia lectura para una prueba de una cola (Región critica Unilateral o de un lado)
0 2
Xp
Función de densidad
α p e−∞ x X p−1
f ( )=
x
2
Γ ( p) ,x>0
∞
Donde ) = ∫ e Γ¿
0
−x
x
p−1
dx
Media 1r
Varianza 2r
Desviación estándar √ 2 r
Fórmula:
α p e−∞ x X p−1
f ( x2 )= , x >0
r ( p)
Donde:
∞
r ( p )=∫ e− x x p−1 dx
0
CARACTERÍSTICAS
Media →1 r
Varianza →2 r
PROPIEDADES
P ( x 2n−1< a ) =F(a)
MANEJO DE TABLA
Ejemplo:
1) P ( 2
X 26 ≤ 17.29) = ? 0.10
Gl 1- α
.005 0.100 Rpta
26 17.29
2) P( 2
X 14 ≤ 25.12) = 0.975
P ( x 2n−1> a ) =1−P( x 2n−1 <a)
25 10.52 11.52 13.12 14.61 16.47 19.94 24.30 29.30 40.26 37.65 40.65
26 11.16 12.20 13.84 15.38 17.29 20.8 25.30 30.4 35.56 38.89 41.92
2
4)P ( X 26 > 40 ) = No existe en la tabla por interpolación
2
X 26 1–α
41. 92 0.975
40 x
38.89 0.950
41.92−38.89 0.75−0.950
=
40−38.89 x−0.950
3.03 0.025
1.11
= x−0.950
X= 0.9591
Ejemplo 1:
Solución:
0.75
P ( x 2 ≥ x 20.75 )=0.25
12.55
Ejemplo 2 :
Solución:
n =5 , gl= 5 -1 = 4
0.1
α= =0.05 ;
2
1-α
0.05 0.95
P ( x 20.05 ≥ x 2 ≥ x 20.95 )
PC 1=0.711
PC 2=9.48
FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION F DE
SNEDECOR
1- α
f
0 fp
Función de densidad
N D N +D
N . D .γ
f(x)= -1(D+Nx¿
2 2 2 N −N +D
.x 2
N D 2
γ .γ
2 2
P( F(4,5) ≤ 7.39 )=
Fórmula:
Función de densidad
N D N +D
N D γ −N +D
2 2 2 N
f ( X )= . X −1( D+ Nx) 2
N D 2
γ γ
2 2
Donde:
PROPIEDADES
P ( z< a )=F (a)
P ( z> a )=1−P(Z < a)
P ( a< z <b )=F ( b )−F( a)
P ( z← a )=1− p (z< a)
P ( z>−a )=P( z< a)
MANEJO DE TABLA
Ejemplo:
1) P( F(4,5) ≤ 7.39 ) = 0.975
r 1= 4 , r 2= 5
1–α r2 r1 1 2 3 4 …………….n
0.90
0.95 1
0.975 5.. 3.52 --5--5.19
0.99
0.90
0.95 2 7.39 ------- 11.39
0.975
0.99
0.90
0.95 .
0.975 5 7.39
0.99
1-α 1 2 3 4
0.90 4.06 3.78 3.62 3.52
0.95 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19
5
0.975 10.00 8.43 7.76 7.39
0.99 16.26 13.27 12.06 11.39
¿ F(4,5) 1- α
11.39 0.99
8 X
7.39 0.975
11.39−7.39 0.99−0.975
8−7.39
= x−0.975
4 0.015
0.61 = 0.975 x= 0.977
Ejemplo 1:
Usando la distribución de Fisher determinar los puntos críticos para la varianza del
numerador n = 8 para el denominador n = 16 con un nivel de significancia del 10%.
Solución: Gl = n-1 , 1- α
→ α =1−0.10=0.90 F 7,15=2.16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.90 3.07 2.7 2.49 2.36 2.27 2.21 2.16
0.95 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06 2.9 2.79 2.71
15
0.975 6.20 4.76 4.15 3.80 3.58 3.41 2.29
0.99 8.68 6.36 5.42 4.89 4.56 4.32 4.14
Ejemplo 2:
Usando la tabla de Fisher, hallar:
P( F ¿¿(12,17)< fa)=0.975 ¿
fa=2.82
1−α 12
0.90
17 0.97
2.82
5