Teorema de Bayes

Capítulo 5

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Plan de vuelo
5-6 Calcular probabilidades usando el teorema de
Bayes

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Teorema de Bayes

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Teorema de Bayes - Ejemplo

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Teorema de Bayes - Ejemplo

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Teorema de Bayes - Ejemplo

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Teorema de Bayes - Ejemplo

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 P(B y A1)=0.0450
P(B/A1)=0.90 Positivo en Prueba (B)

P(A1)=0.05 Enfermo (A1)

P(nB y A1)=0.005
P(nB/A1)=0.10 Negativo en Prueba (nB)
Condición
de salud
P(B/A2)=0.15 Positivo en Prueba (B)
P(A2)=0.95 P(B y A2)=0.1425
No enfermo (A2)

P(nB/A2)=0.85 Negativo en Prueba (nB)

P(nB y A2)=0.8075
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 P(B y A1)=0.0450
P( A1/B)=0.24 Enfermo (A1)

P(B)=0.1875 Positivo en Prueba (B)

P(B y A2)=0.1425
P( A2/B)=0.76 No está enfermo (A2)
Resultado de
Prueba
Enfermo (A1)
P(nB)=0.8125 P(nB y A1)=0.005
Negativo en Prueba (nB)

P No está enfermo (A2)

P(nB y A2)=0.8075
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5-10 Copyright 2018 by McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.