1 1 1

𝑃(𝐴 = 𝑟𝑟) = ( ) ( ) =
2 2 4
3
𝑎) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) =
4
3
𝑏) 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟𝑅, 𝑅𝑟, 𝑟𝑟) =
4
1
𝑐)𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑅𝑟|𝑅) =
2
a) 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.40
b) 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.37
c) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.10
d) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.67
e) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) = 0.60
f) 𝑃((𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)𝑐 ) = 0.33
g) 𝑃((𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)𝑐 ) = 0.90
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.10
h) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
= 0.37 = 0.2702
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.10
i) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = = = 0.25
𝑃(𝐴) 0.40

𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒
𝑆𝑖 𝐴 𝑦 𝐵 𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 (𝐴𝑗𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠)
𝑦 𝑠𝑖 𝑃(𝐵) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛
 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷)
𝑃(𝐶|𝐷) =
𝑃(𝐷)

𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)) 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = = =
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

𝐸𝑛 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

Ó
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
𝐴 𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑓ó𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑙𝑎 𝑙𝑒𝑦 𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎

𝑎) 𝑆𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑖 𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒

𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) →
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.8 + 0.7 − 0.1 →
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1.4 > 1 𝑙𝑜 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑎𝑟
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.1

𝑏) min(𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)) = 0.5

𝑐) 𝑁𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≤ 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≤ 𝑃(𝐵)
𝐷𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑜
max{𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)} = min{𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵)} 𝑠𝑖 𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑜 𝑠𝑖 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 𝑜 𝐵 ⊂ 𝐴
 𝐶𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 0.1 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑙 𝑜𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑠 3 𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑜 𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑜 𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝑎) = 1 − (0.1)3 = 0.999
𝑆𝑖 𝐵 𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎
𝑃(𝐵) = .999
𝑆𝑖 𝐴 𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑜 1
0.9
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = 0.9009
0.999

En serie 𝑃(𝑠𝑟𝑖𝑒) = 0.92 = 0.81, en paralelo 𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑙𝑜) = 1 − 0.12 = 0.99

 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑎 = 𝑃((𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)𝑐 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑎
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑏 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
1 − 𝑎 = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑏 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑎 + 𝑏 − 1 + 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑎 + 𝑏 − 1 + 𝑃(𝐴)
= = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑏
𝑎 + 𝑏 − 1 + 𝑃(𝐴)
= 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑏
𝑎 + 𝑏 − 1 + 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑏𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑏𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑎 − 𝑏
𝑃(𝐴)[1 − 𝑏] = 1 − 𝑎 − 𝑏
1−𝑎−𝑏
𝑃(𝐴) =
1−𝑏

𝑃(𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑒) = (0.1)(0.5) = 0.05

 23 = 8

1
a) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) = 1000 = 0.001
𝑆𝑖 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎 𝑙𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑑𝑜 𝑎 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑙 4 𝑜 𝑎𝑙 6
1
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑃(𝑥 = 6) =
2
1 3 1
𝑃(𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡𝑜 = 666) = ( ) =
2 8
𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
1 1
𝑃(𝑏) = ( ) ( ) = 0.000125
8 1000

𝑀é𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖ó𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠

𝑆𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐴, 𝐵 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒
𝐴∪𝐵 =Ω
𝑆𝑒𝑎 𝐹 𝑢𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑎
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒
𝐹 = (𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) ∪ (𝐹 ∩ 𝐵)

𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐵)
 𝐹 → "𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑠"
𝐴 → Es republicano
𝐵 → 𝐸𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑚ó𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4
𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6
𝑃(𝐹|𝐴) = 0.7
𝑃(𝐹|𝐵) = 0.8
𝑈𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑙𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖ó𝑛
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐵)

𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐹|𝐴) = (0.4)(0.7) = 0.28

𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐹|𝐵) = (0.6)(0.8) = 0.48
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐹) = 0.28 + 0.48 = 0.76

𝑃(𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 1) = (3𝐶3)(0.9)3 + (3𝐶2)(0.9)2 (0.1) + (3𝐶1)(0.9)(0.1)2

= (1)(0.729) + (3)(0.081) + (3)(0.009) = 0.999
𝑃(𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑒 0) = 1 − (0.1)3 = 1 − 0.001 = 0.999

𝑆𝑒𝑎 𝑟 𝑙𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑟 − é𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑜 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑎

𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑟 = 1,2,3,4,5, …

𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑠 𝑖𝑒𝑙 𝑟 − é𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑜 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑟í𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜

5 𝑟−1 1
𝑃(𝑅 = 𝑟) = ( ) ( )
6 6