ANEXO 04: PROCEDIMIENTO DEL MODELO LUTZ SCHOLZ PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO

DESARROLLO DEL MODELO DETERMINÍSTICO ESTOCÁSTICO-LUTZ SCHOLZ

ECUACIÓN DEL BALANCE HÍDRICO ANUAL

E= Escurrimiento(mm)
𝐸=𝐶∗𝑃 ---> P𝐸=𝐶∗𝑃 P= Precipitación anual (mm)
C= Coeficiente de escorrentia medio anual
PE= Precipitación efectiva (mm)

CÁLCULO DE COEFICIENTE DE ESCORRENTÍA

Método de “L. TURC”

T = Temperatura media anual (°C) 12.48
L = Coeficiente de Temperatura 709.19
P = Precipitación Total anual (mm/año) 1303.9
D = Déficit de escurrimiento (mm/año) 630.24
C = Coeficiente de escurrimiento (mm/año) 0.517

ECUACIÓN DEL BALANCE HÍDRICO MENSUAL PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO

CMi = Caudal mensual (mm/mes)

Pi = Precipitación mensual sobre la cuenca (mm/mes)
Di = Déficit de escurrimiento (mm/mes)
Gi = Gasto de la retención de la cuenca (mm/mes)
Ai = Abastecimiento de la retención (mm/mes)

PRECIPITACIÓN MEDIA MENSUAL(mm)

PP MEDIA AREAL POR METODO DE POLIGONOS DE THIESSEN

MES PP(mm)
SEP 46.7384 PP MEDIA AREAL (mm)
OCT 144.785 250
NOV 128.381
DIC 161.715
ENE 146.011 200
FEB 187.88
MAR 209.609
150
ABR 170.539 PP(mm)
MAY 67.3203
JUN 21.2138 100
JUL 11.8919
AGO 7.85875
TOTAL 1303.9 50

0
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
 50

0
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO

PRECIPITACIÓN EFECTIVA MENSUAL

PE = Precipitación efectiva (mm/mes)

P = Precipitación total mensual (mm/mes)
ai = Coeficiente del polinomio

Las cifras romanas se refieren a las curvas que cubren un rango para el coeficiente de
escorrentía entre 0.15 y 1.00, las curvas I y II pertenecen al método del USBR las curvas III, IV, V,
VI y VII han sido desarrollados mediante ampliación simétrica del rango original según el criterio
del experto Lutz.

Precipitacion Total PORCION DE PRECIPITACION mm/mes

Mensual (lim. APROVECHABLE POR LAS PLANTAS
Superior) mm
I II III IV V VI VII
50.8 49.5 44.5 38.1 28 17.9 15.4 10.4
76.2 72.4 63.5 49.5 30.5 20.4 15.4 10.4
101.6 92.7 76.2 54.6 33 20.4 15.4 10.4
127 107.9 83.8 57.1 33 20.4 15.4 10.4
152.4 118.1 86.4 57.1 33 20.4 15.4 10.4
177.8 120.6 86.4 57.1 33 20.4 15.4 10.4
C
DEFICIT O ESCURRIMIENTO
I II III IV V VI VII
1.3 6.3 12.7 22.8 32.9 35.4 40.4
3.8 12.7 26.7 45.7 55.8 60.8 65.8
8.9 25.4 47 68.6 81.2 86.2 91.2
19.1 43.2 69.9 94 106.6 111.6 116.6
34.3 66 95.3 119.4 132 137 142
57.2 91.4 120.7 144.8 157.4 162.4 167.4
0.15 0.3 0.45 0.6 0.75 0.9 1

coef I II III
a0 -0.047 -0.1065 -0.4177 El rango de
a1 0.0094 0.1477 0.3795 aplicación de los
coeficientes de la
a2 -0.001 -0.0029 -0.0101 ecuación
a3 2E-05 5E-05 0.0002 Polinómica de la
PE está
a4 -5E-08 -2E-07 -9E-07 comprendida para
a5 2E-10 2E-10 1E-09 0 < P < 250 mm
C 0.15 0.30 0.45

coef I II III
a0 -0.018 -0.021 -0.028 Límite superior para la Precipitación Efectiva:
a1 -0.0185 0.1358 0.2756 Curva I :
a2 0.0011 -0.002 -0.0041 PE = P - 120.6 para P > 177.8 mm/mes
a3 -1E-05 4E-05 6E-05 Curva II :
 a4 1E-07 -9E-08 1E-07 PE = P - 86.4 para P > 152.4 mm/mes
a5 -3E-10 -9E-11 -1E-09 Curva III:
C 0.15 0.3 0.45 PE = P - 59.7 para P > 127.0 mm/mes

Elección de curvas y coeficientes

coef I II III
a0 -0.018 -0.021 -0.028
a1 -0.0185 0.1358 0.2756 NOTA: Elegir el grupo de coeficientes que
a2 0.0011 -0.002 -0.0041 cumpla los requisitos de que los
a3 -1E-05 4E-05 6E-05 coeficientes de escorrentia sean <1
a4 1E-07 -9E-08 1E-07
a5 -3E-10 -9E-11 -1E-09 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
INTERPOLACION DE CURVAS 2 2 2 2
Comb I Y II Comb. II Y III Comb. III Y IV Comb. IV Y V 4 4
C 0.517 C 0.517 C 0.517 C 0.517 1 1 1
P 1303.9 P 1303.9 P 1303.9 P 1304 1 1 1
PEI 566.54 PEII 566.54 PEIII 566.54 PEIV 2 2 2
PEII 756.97 PEIII 756.97 PEIV 756.97 PEV 4
CI 0.4373 CII 0.4373 CIII 0.4373 CIV 0
CII 0.5627 CIII 0.5627 CIV 0.5627 CV 0
OK OK OK NO 0

Se ha elegido el grupo de curvas con mayor rango de acción y las curvas II 0

el coeficiente de escorrentía se encuentra entre 0.30 y 0.45 respectivamente.

ÁREA DE LA MICROCUENCA

AR(Km2) 1.45

COEFICIENTE DE AGOTAMIENTO

- Cuencas con agotamiento muy rápido. Debido a temperaturas elevadas (>10°C) y

retención que va de reducida (50 mm/año) a mediana (80 mm/año):

- Cuencas con agotamiento rápido. Retención entre 50 y 80 mm/año y vegetación poco

desarrollada (puna):

- Cuencas con agotamiento mediano. Retención mediana (80 mm/año) y vegetación

mezclada (pastos, bosques y terrenos cultivados):

- Cuencas con agotamiento reducido. Debido a la alta retención (> 100 mm/año) y
vegetación mezclada:
 a = coeficiente de agotamiento por día
AR = área de la cuenca (km2)
EP = evapotranspiración potencial anual (mm/año)
T = duración de la temporada seca (días)
R = retención total de la cuenca (mm/año)

Elección de tipo de cuenca

- Cuencas con agotamiento mediano. Retención mediana (80 mm/año) y vegetación
mezclada (pastos, bosques y terrenos cultivados):
a 0.0251

RELACIÓN ENTRE DESCARGA Y RETENCIÓN

bo 0.47147 bo=𝑒^(−𝑎
∗𝑡)
GASTO DE LA RETENCIÓN

R 80.0

ABASTECIMIENTO

Región Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Total

Cusco 0 5 35 40 20 0 100
Huancavelica 10 0 35 30 20 5 100
Junín 10 0 25 30 30 5 100
Cajamarca 25 -5 0 20 25 35 100

Cajamarca 25 -5 0 20 25 35 100
La Libertad

GENERACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES PARA AÑO PROMEDIO-LUTZ SCHOLZ

PRECIPITACIÓN MENSUAL CONTRIBUCIÓN DE LA RETENCIÓN

CAUDALES
N° P Efectiva Gasto Abastecimient
MES días del Total PE II PE III PE bi Gi ai Ai
mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes m3/s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ENE 30 146.0 59.61 86.31 74.6 0.2 16 58.6 0.033
FEB 28 187.9 101.40 128.18 116.5 0.25 20 96.5 0.058
MAR 31 209.6 123.21 149.91 138.2 0.35 28 110.2342 0.060
ABR 30 170.5 84.11 102.17 94.3 0.4714653 42.752 137.03 0.077
MAY 31 67.3 10.03 17.40 14.2 0.222 20.156 34.33451 0.019
JUN 30 21.2 2.22 4.52 3.5 0.105 9.503 13.01836 0.007
JUL 31 11.9 1.34 2.76 2.1 0.049 4.480 6.622095 0.004
AGO 31 7.9 0.93 1.91 1.5 0.023 2.112 3.59267 0.002
 SEP 30 46.7 5.31 9.82 7.8 0.011 0.996 8.840 0.005
OCT 31 144.8 58.80 85.97 74.1 0.25 20 54.1 0.029
NOV 30 128.4 44.35 68.99 58.2 -0.05 -4 62.21 0.035
DIC 31 161.7 75.23 99.03 88.6 0 0 88.62565 0.048
AÑO 1303.9 566.5 757.0 673.7 0.882 80 1.00 80.0 673.7 0.031
Coeficiente C: 0.517 0.437 0.563 1

COMPARACIÓN DE CAUDAL GENERADO PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO Y EL CAUDAL MEDIO OBSERVADO

Q M OBSERVADO (m3/s)
Q M GENERADO (m3/s)

CAUDAL MEDIO GENERADO (m3/s)

0.090

0.080

0.070
MES

SEP 0.005 0.060 Q M GENERADO

OCT 0.029 (m3/s)
0.050
NOV 0.035 Q M OBSERVADO
(m3/s)
DIC 0.048 0.040
ENE 0.033
0.030
FEB 0.058
MAR 0.060 0.020
ABR 0.077
0.010
MAY 0.019
JUN 0.007 0.000
JUL 0.004 SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
AGO 0.002

CALCULO DE LOS COEFICIENTES DE CORRELACION PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO

MES Qt Qt-1 PE MES PP PE

ENE 58.6 88.6 74.6 ENE 146.0 77.9 N= 74.99
FEB 96.5 58.6 116.5 FEB 187.9 114.3 PE SCS 684.7
MAR 110.2 96.5 138.2 MAR 209.6 133.8 PE MODELO LUTZ S 673.7
ABR 137.0 110.2 94.3 ABR 170.5 99
MAY 34.3 137.0 14.2 MAY 67.3 18.8 Se ha ajustado la Precipitación
JUN 13.0 34.3 3.5 JUN 21.2 0.2 efectiva hasta obtener la
JUL 6.6 13.0 2.1 JUL 11.9 0.3 escorentía histórica anual (mm)
AGO 3.6 6.6 1.5 AGO 7.9 1.1 𝑃𝐸=(10∗(𝑃/10−508/𝑁+5.08)^
SEP 8.8 3.6 7.8 SEP 46.7 7.8 2)/(P/10+2032/N−20.32)
OCT 54.1 8.8 74.1 OCT 144.8 76.9
NOV 62.2 54.1 58.2 NOV 128.4 63.3
DIC 88.63 62.2 88.63 DIC 161.7 91.3
 Método SCS, Chow

TEST ESTADISTICO

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficie 0.92133
Coefici 0.84885
R^2 aju 0.81527
Error tí 11.8018
Observa 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de
Suma
libertad
Promedio
de cuadrados
de los cuadrados
FValor crítico de F
Regresi 2 7040 3520 25.272 0.0002
Residuo 9 1253.5 139.28
Total 11 8293.5

Coeficientes
Error típico
Estadístico
Probabilidad
t Inferior Superior
95% Inferior
95% Superior
95.0% 95.0%
Interce 5.04495 6.1818 0.8161 0.4355 -8.9393 19.029 -8.93926 19.03
Variable0.27821 0.1383 2.0115 0.0751 -0.0347 0.5911 -0.03467 0.591
Variable0.58432 0.1028 5.6865 0.0003 0.3519 0.8168 0.35187 0.817
PRECIPITACION MEDIA AREAL DE LA MICROCUENCA(mm)

ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOT
1978 29.1 44.9 72.8 54.0 99.3 8.1 3.9 5.2 27.4 40.0 77.8 60.3 523
1979 192.9 106.5 239.6 54.2 24.7 3.7 6.7 21.6 38.7 40.0 37.9 62.7 829
1980 80.0 55.3 97.5 42.8 10.4 31.3 2.8 7.7 2.7 213.6 160.0 143.6 848
1981 179.3 243.4 158.6 49.2 22.2 13.7 6.4 17.5 25.3 183.3 65.7 149.7 1114
1982 164.4 134.3 113.6 129.5 57.8 16.1 1.9 9.1 50.6 204.5 97.0 117.6 1096
1983 267.4 98.4 227.5 154.4 47.1 20.9 8.5 3.7 22.1 142.4 40.5 159.3 1192
1984 56.6 304.9 185.8 116.8 105.2 51.9 20.8 25.7 42.3 112.4 140.7 140.1 1303
1985 56.4 55.3 55.8 61.2 80.2 0.8 4.3 25.2 43.0 81.9 34.4 54.2 553
1986 193.5 62.3 145.2 175.6 24.5 1.2 1.1 20.1 1.4 71.4 95.4 69.7 861
1987 225.2 124.3 58.8 76.2 16.8 8.3 9.6 16.9 45.5 60.9 107.1 81.4 831
1988 251.6 137.7 67.2 139.6 16.0 11.2 0.0 45.2 80.0 106.8 91.4 99.0 1046
1989 199.5 207.3 65.3 124.7 28.4 34.6 2.8 8.1 61.6 174.6 67.9 3.6 979
1990 233.5 89.4 87.5 40.0 60.2 50.9 0.7 9.8 23.2 143.5 142.8 97.3 979
1991 100.4 117.5 200.6 80.6 27.1 1.4 0.4 0.4 11.8 46.2 79.4 96.7 763
1992 120.6 41.5 99.9 67.9 28.6 43.9 4.1 13.8 47.0 104.9 46.1 45.9 664
1993 139.9 146.5 367.6 150.3 44.8 3.9 2.9 4.0 59.2 174.2 102.9 113.2 1309
1994 268.1 134.6 255.4 211.6 45.1 23.0 4.9 13.3 36.6 114.4 87.6 88.7 1283
1995 102.5 141.4 113.6 72.6 31.2 3.5 11.7 14.9 13.3 84.9 72.8 102.8 765
1996 149.5 161.9 181.5 73.6 20.7 1.7 0.4 21.7 16.0 124.8 99.1 45.9 897
1997 146.3 199.6 39.8 59.0 25.7 31.9 0.2 0.0 31.6 83.2 161.3 174.1 953
1998 240.8 152.1 385.6 122.5 29.7 9.9 1.2 6.5 20.5 130.4 41.9 64.4 1206
1999 217.4 316.8 104.3 94.1 81.3 47.2 19.6 1.7 93.8 35.6 111.0 92.2 1215
2000 105.5 210.3 189.5 112.9 61.3 32.3 1.9 18.4 65.2 16.2 64.1 164.5 1042
2001 438.5 131.6 345.4 83.5 72.8 4.8 12.4 0.0 39.6 75.7 134.6 122.3 1461
2002 61.9 79.4 199.7 112.7 34.8 18.2 9.5 4.7 16.8 147.9 144.0 115.8 946
2003 117.2 80.1 155.4 61.5 46.5 46.2 1.6 14.6 17.1 75.4 91.9 108.6 816
2004 82.8 74.3 66.8 61.9 3.2 38.9 26.1 26.1 73.1 151.7 178.3 137.2 920
2005 194.7 155.7 204.1 78.9 10.9 9.3 0.5 4.8 35.9 151.2 43.2 118.1 1007
2006 190.8 132.6 299.0 113.3 11.7 49.5 1.6 8.4 38.7 20.8 87.0 109.9 1063
2007 218.8 22.8 273.7 162.8 36.3 2.9 9.5 8.8 13.4 194.8 140.7 92.6 1177
2008 183.9 174.0 177.6 144.7 34.3 31.9 2.0 25.2 58.0 152.5 85.5 32.0 1102
2009 285.8 154.7 176.4 118.6 56.7 18.1 9.1 8.1 8.9 174.8 119.2 100.6 1231
2010 73.3 113.1 185.7 99.5 84.5 25.6 5.6 2.6 23.5 50.7 73.9 105.7 844
2011 118.2 85.0 155.2 153.2 21.5 2.8 8.1 0.8 41.0 60.2 63.4 166.6 876
2012 238.1 184.7 141.5 72.2 47.1 5.0 0.1 14.1 43.5 111.1 131.2 90.7 1079
2013 167.6 126.8 213.9 73.5 7.7 49.0 5.7 21.5 24.8 6.1 159.5 14.7 871
MEDIA 169.2 133.4 169.6 100 40.45 20.93 5.794 12.5 35.92 107.3 96.586 98.38 990
DESV EST. 83.08 67.52 89.25 42.28 26.3 17.48 6.196 9.909 21.83 57.421 39.805 41.97 214
MIN 29.1 22.8 39.8 40.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.1 34.4 3.6 523
MAX 438.5 316.8 385.6 211.6 105.2 51.9 26.1 45.2 93.8 213.6 178.3 174.1 1461

PRECIPITACION EFECTIVA GENERADA

N 75.00

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1978 1.50 6.9 22.2 11.3 40.6 1 2.4 1.9 1.2 4.9 25.5 14.7 134
1979 118.8 46.1 161.3 11.4 0.6 2.4 1.4 0.2 4.5 4.9 4.2 16.1 372
1980 26.9 12 39.3 6.1 0.5 2.1 2.8 1.1 2.9 137.5 89.8 75.9 397
1981 106.7 164.9 88.7 8.9 0.3 0.1 1.5 0 0.8 110.3 17.8 81.1 581
1982 93.7 68.2 51.5 64.3 13.3 0 3.3 0.8 9.6 129.2 38.9 54.7 528
1983 187.2 40 150.1 85 7.9 0.2 0.9 2.4 0.3 74.9 5.1 89.3 643
1984 12.7 222.6 112.4 54.1 45 10.2 0.2 0.8 5.8 50.6 73.5 73 661
1985 12.6 12 12.2 15.2 27.1 3.8 2.2 0.7 6.1 28.2 3 11.4 135
1986 119.4 15.8 77.3 103.4 0.6 3.6 3.7 0.1 3.5 21.3 37.7 20.3 407
1987 148.1 60 13.9 24.4 0 1 0.7 0 7.2 15.1 46.5 27.9 345
1988 172.4 71 18.7 72.6 0 0.4 4.2 7.1 26.9 46.3 34.8 40.4 495
1989 124.7 131.7 17.6 60.4 1.4 3 2.8 1 15.5 102.6 19.1 2.5 482
1990 155.7 33.4 32.1 4.9 14.6 9.7 3.8 0.7 0.4 75.8 75.3 39.1 446
1991 41.5 54.6 125.7 27.3 1.1 3.5 4 4 0.3 7.5 26.5 38.7 335
1992 57.1 5.5 41.1 19.2 1.4 6.5 2.3 0.1 7.9 44.8 7.5 7.4 201
1993 72.8 78.3 282.5 81.6 6.9 2.4 2.8 2.3 14.1 102.2 43.3 51.2 740
1994 187.8 68.4 176 135.7 7 0.4 2 0.2 3.7 52.1 32.2 32.9 698
1995 43 74 51.5 22.1 2 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 30.2 22.2 43.2 291
1996 80.9 91.5 108.7 22.7 0.2 3.4 4 0.3 0 60.5 40.5 7.4 420
1997 78.2 124.8 4.8 14 0.8 2.2 4.1 4.2 2.2 29.1 91 102.1 458
1998 162.4 83.1 299.8 58.6 1.7 0.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 65 5.7 17.1 699
1999 140.9 233.8 44.4 36.8 27.8 8 0.1 3.4 36.6 3.4 49.5 35.4 620
2000 45.3 134.5 115.8 51 15.2 2.4 3.3 0 17.5 0 16.9 93.8 496
2001 351 65.9 261.1 29.3 22.2 2 0.3 4.2 4.8 24.1 68.4 58.4 892
2002 15.6 26.5 124.9 50.9 3.1 0 0.7 2.1 0 79.6 76.2 53.3 433
2003 54.3 27 86 15.4 7.6 7.5 3.4 0.1 0 23.9 35.2 47.6 308
2004 28.8 23.2 18.5 15.6 2.7 4.5 0.9 0.9 22.4 82.8 105.8 70.6 377
2005 120.4 86.2 128.8 26.2 0.5 0.8 3.9 2 3.5 82.4 6.2 55.1 516
2006 116.9 66.8 217 51.3 0.4 9 3.4 1 4.5 0.2 31.8 48.7 551
2007 142.2 0.4 193.1 92.3 3.6 2.8 0.7 0.9 0.2 120.5 73.5 35.7 666
2008 110.8 102.1 105.3 76.9 3 2.2 3.2 0.7 13.4 83.4 30.7 2.3 534
2009 204.5 85.4 104.1 55.5 12.7 0 0.8 1 0.9 102.8 55.9 41.6 665
2010 22.6 51.2 112.4 40.8 30 0.8 1.8 2.9 0.5 9.6 22.9 45.4 341
2011 55.2 30.3 85.7 84 0.2 2.8 1 3.8 5.3 14.6 16.4 95.6 395
2012 160 111.5 74.1 21.8 7.9 1.9 4.2 0.1 6.3 49.6 65.6 34.4 537
2013 96.5 62.1 137.7 22.7 1.1 8.8 1.7 0.2 0.7 1.6 89.5 0.1 423
MEDIA 101.9 71.44 102.7 43.71 8.639 3.125 2.289 1.467 6.383 51.986 41.239 43.46 478.33
DESV EST 71.44 55.48 77.29 31.88 11.96 2.99 1.369 1.628 8.43 41.199 28.786 28.22 169
MIN 1.5 0.4 4.8 4.9 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 3 0.1 134.1
MAX 351 233.8 299.8 135.7 45 10.2 4.2 7.1 36.6 137.5 105.8 102.1 891.7

NUMEROS ALEATORIOS CON DISTRIBUCION NORMAL ESTANDAR (0,1)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
 1978 -1.65 0.64 -0.36 -0.74 0.02 -0.65 2.59 -1.08 -0.75 -1.34 0.21 -2.42
1979 -1.84 0.13 -0.69 0.90 -0.20 -0.41 1.13 -0.19 0.72 1.92 -0.04 0.13
1980 2.17 1.51 -0.31 0.12 1.24 0.74 0.02 -0.51 -2.13 0.57 -0.88 -0.55
1981 -0.86 -1.55 0.39 -1.78 0.52 1.21 -0.15 -1.87 -0.87 -0.42 -0.73 -0.24
1982 -0.59 -1.38 -1.43 -0.42 1.59 -1.16 0.27 0.13 0.42 0.23 -0.73 1.00
1983 -0.13 0.62 1.15 -1.92 0.36 0.45 -0.71 -0.76 0.48 -0.92 -0.89 1.08
1984 0.60 -1.94 -0.72 -0.44 -0.63 -0.93 0.49 0.54 0.38 -0.35 -0.12 -0.26
1985 0.62 -0.52 -1.39 -0.95 -0.18 -1.16 -1.57 -0.15 -0.10 -0.68 0.96 -0.75
1986 -1.25 -0.53 0.50 0.56 -0.89 -0.72 1.79 0.70 -1.28 -0.27 0.18 -0.41
1987 -0.90 0.04 0.04 -0.67 -0.95 0.03 -0.64 -1.63 -1.76 -1.93 0.26 0.21
1988 -2.06 0.13 -1.81 -1.72 -1.56 -1.01 -1.22 1.65 0.02 0.14 1.28 1.80
1989 -0.48 0.37 -2.57 1.42 0.03 -1.04 -0.80 -1.83 -0.55 0.22 -0.58 0.29
1990 -0.27 -1.12 1.47 -0.59 -0.91 0.25 0.06 2.29 -1.34 -0.90 0.00 1.23
1991 0.82 -1.41 -1.27 -0.57 1.03 0.52 -0.35 0.60 -1.35 0.23 2.29 0.16
1992 0.17 0.64 -1.50 1.35 -0.44 -0.26 -0.86 -0.28 0.73 -1.19 -1.77 0.21
1993 1.18 -1.26 1.01 0.30 -0.86 0.26 1.67 0.66 0.29 -0.21 1.03 -0.40
1994 -1.82 -0.65 0.64 -0.61 1.51 -1.63 -0.68 1.51 0.75 1.22 -0.79 -2.45
1995 -0.11 0.66 -1.09 -0.82 0.40 0.35 -0.46 -2.41 -0.61 -0.26 -0.74 0.63
1996 0.81 0.45 -1.76 1.33 1.14 -0.38 -1.61 -0.60 1.16 -1.74 1.02 -0.23
1997 0.48 0.76 0.76 -0.50 0.10 0.27 1.17 1.19 -0.76 -0.85 0.34 0.61
1998 -0.47 -1.06 0.47 -1.15 1.18 -1.14 2.77 0.34 -0.68 0.12 0.17 -0.81
1999 -0.44 1.03 -1.44 -0.67 -1.31 -1.06 0.39 -0.07 0.20 -0.51 -0.78 3.04
2000 -0.86 -0.92 -0.13 0.34 0.26 -1.21 1.12 0.38 1.51 -0.32 -1.02 -1.77
2001 0.40 0.57 -1.15 0.35 1.00 0.38 0.00 -2.53 -0.99 0.40 1.44 -0.04
2002 -0.48 1.58 -0.58 -0.44 -0.65 1.62 1.16 -0.40 1.75 -0.92 -0.09 1.22
2003 1.79 0.32 0.49 0.50 0.20 -0.41 1.66 -0.31 1.57 -0.32 -0.70 -1.25
2004 0.67 0.51 1.75 -0.87 1.50 -0.54 -0.60 -0.80 -1.51 -1.34 -1.98 -0.30
2005 0.77 0.85 0.56 0.58 1.88 -0.12 0.31 0.84 -1.39 0.40 0.22 0.28
2006 -0.72 -0.41 -0.17 -0.48 -0.01 -1.37 0.34 -0.19 -1.56 0.44 -0.78 -0.88
2007 0.33 -1.45 -0.12 0.54 0.80 0.06 -0.48 0.16 0.24 0.67 -0.42 0.06
2008 -0.63 -1.10 0.76 -1.55 -1.07 1.27 0.60 -0.88 0.83 1.66 -1.17 0.11
2009 -0.06 0.30 -0.68 -2.17 0.71 1.03 0.55 1.70 0.36 -1.37 -0.16 -0.63
2010 0.93 -0.10 0.68 -0.44 0.17 -0.14 -1.94 -0.84 0.79 0.35 1.54 1.22
2011 0.63 0.97 1.32 -0.67 -1.57 -1.89 0.48 -0.56 -0.13 0.06 0.47 -0.45
2012 0.69 0.80 -2.05 1.92 0.69 -0.84 1.12 -0.75 -0.19 -0.25 -1.35 0.47
2013 1.91 -0.43 0.54 -0.82 -0.28 0.41 -0.61 -1.79 1.07 0.60 0.26 0.36
MEDIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESV EST 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIN -2.06 -1.94 -2.57 -2.17 -1.57 -1.89 -1.94 -2.53 -2.13 -1.93 -1.98 -2.45
MAX 2.17 1.58 1.75 1.92 1.88 1.62 2.77 2.29 1.75 1.92 2.29 3.04

COEFICIENTES DE REGRESION MULTIPLE

b1 5.045 b2 0.278 b3 0.584 Qt = b1 + b2*Qt-1 + b3*PEt + Z*S*(1 - R^2)^0.5
S 11.8 R^2 0.921

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES(mm)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
PROM 58.6 96.5 110.2 137.0 34.3 13.0 6.6 3.6 8.8 54.1 62.2 88.6 674
1978 25.1 18.2 21.9 15.3 33.1 12.7 18.6 7.8 5.4 5.0 22.0 11.8 197
1979 71.6 52.3 111.6 45.7 17.4 9.9 12.4 8.0 12.3 17.7 12.3 18.3 390
1980 33.0 26.3 34.3 18.5 14.6 12.8 10.3 6.9 1.6 87.7 79.0 69.6 395
1981 83.9 119.6 91.5 29.8 15.2 13.3 9.1 1.4 3.0 68.9 32.2 60.6 529
1982 74.7 61.1 47.4 54.4 33.2 10.4 10.8 8.9 14.5 85.3 49.1 54.0 504
1983 129.0 66.4 115.0 80.4 33.2 15.9 7.6 6.1 8.5 48.1 18.5 65.9 595
1984 32.8 137.8 106.7 64.9 47.3 21.1 12.6 10.8 12.7 37.0 57.9 62.9 605
1985 32.0 19.2 12.9 14.4 24.3 10.2 4.0 6.0 9.9 22.0 16.1 13.7 185
1986 74.5 33.2 61.1 84.3 25.9 12.0 16.5 12.0 6.2 18.3 32.8 24.7 401
1987 95.5 66.8 31.9 26.0 9.1 8.3 5.6 1.2 3.8 8.5 35.5 31.9 324
1988 107.8 77.0 31.4 50.5 13.9 5.8 5.1 16.1 25.3 39.6 40.6 45.9 459
1989 89.1 108.0 36.9 55.3 21.4 9.3 6.6 1.4 12.7 69.2 33.5 16.8 460
1990 99.8 48.6 42.2 17.7 15.5 15.9 11.9 16.3 5.4 47.9 62.4 49.3 433
1991 45.7 45.0 86.8 43.3 21.1 14.7 10.3 12.2 4.2 11.3 31.3 36.9 363
1992 49.2 24.1 30.8 29.3 12.6 11.5 6.7 6.0 13.8 31.1 12.2 13.5 241
1993 55.2 62.0 190.7 106.8 35.9 17.3 17.0 13.3 17.9 69.1 53.0 48.4 687
1994 122.2 76.9 131.4 118.9 47.2 13.0 7.6 12.3 13.1 43.2 33.2 25.4 644
1995 36.9 60.7 48.4 28.7 15.5 12.0 7.0 -0.9 2.9 22.6 21.8 38.4 294
1996 65.7 78.3 84.5 46.2 21.8 11.8 5.4 4.7 10.2 37.5 42.5 20.4 429
1997 58.0 96.6 37.3 21.9 12.0 10.6 14.3 15.4 8.1 21.5 65.3 84.9 446
1998 122.0 84.1 205.2 92.6 35.7 11.5 19.5 12.5 6.3 45.2 21.5 18.3 674
1999 91.0 170.4 73.6 44.8 29.4 14.4 10.4 9.7 29.8 13.6 35.2 45.6 568
2000 41.3 92.1 97.9 63.2 32.4 11.4 13.9 10.2 23.1 10.4 14.4 58.0 468
2001 227.6 108.8 184.1 74.5 42.1 19.2 10.6 2.1 5.1 21.9 55.9 54.6 806
2002 27.7 33.5 85.4 57.1 20.6 16.1 13.8 8.8 13.3 52.2 63.8 58.0 450
2003 58.8 38.2 67.6 34.5 19.7 13.6 16.3 8.6 12.6 21.5 29.3 36.9 358
2004 34.4 29.8 30.0 19.6 17.1 10.6 6.5 4.7 14.5 53.0 75.1 66.2 361
2005 96.4 85.0 105.8 51.7 25.9 12.3 11.8 12.3 5.9 56.2 25.0 45.1 533
2006 83.5 66.0 149.6 75.1 26.1 13.0 11.8 8.3 4.8 7.9 23.3 37.1 506
2007 99.6 28.2 125.3 95.6 36.4 17.0 8.6 8.5 8.3 80.0 68.9 45.3 622
2008 80.3 83.4 92.3 70.5 22.9 16.9 13.6 6.3 17.4 64.1 36.9 17.0 522
2009 129.1 91.9 89.2 55.1 30.1 16.8 12.0 14.6 10.8 63.6 54.9 42.5 611
2010 33.2 43.9 85.2 51.1 37.4 15.5 4.0 5.0 9.4 14.4 27.5 43.3 370
2011 51.4 40.3 70.7 71.6 19.9 5.9 8.9 7.9 9.9 16.5 20.8 65.2 389
2012 119.0 105.9 71.0 43.9 24.2 10.1 14.0 6.5 9.9 36.0 48.9 40.3 530
2013 79.0 61.9 104.5 44.7 17.2 16.3 8.6 1.6 9.5 10.6 61.1 23.3 438
MEDIA 76.07 68.59 83.84 55.00 25.45 13.03 10.55 8.03 10.56 38.18 39.89 42.66 471.9
DESV EST 40.40 35.0 47.5 29.7 9.9 3.4 4.1 4.5 6.2 24.1 19.0 20.2 140.5
MIN 25.1 18.2 12.9 14.4 9.1 5.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 12.2 11.8 184.7
MAX 227.6 170.4 205.2 137.0 47.3 21.1 19.5 16.3 29.8 87.7 79.0 88.6 806.3

AREA MICROCUENCA(km2): 1.45

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES GENERADAS PARA PERIODO EXTENDIDO (m3/s)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC PROM
Nro DIAS 30 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31
 1978 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.018 0.007 0.01 0.004 0.003 0.0027 0.0123 0.006 0.0091
1979 0.04 0.031 0.06 0.026 0.009 0.006 0.007 0.004 0.007 0.0096 0.0069 0.01 0.0181
1980 0.018 0.016 0.019 0.01 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.0475 0.0442 0.038 0.0181
1981 0.047 0.072 0.05 0.017 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.001 0.002 0.0373 0.018 0.033 0.0247
1982 0.042 0.037 0.026 0.03 0.018 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.008 0.0462 0.0275 0.029 0.0233
1983 0.072 0.04 0.062 0.045 0.018 0.009 0.004 0.003 0.005 0.026 0.0103 0.036 0.0275
1984 0.018 0.083 0.058 0.036 0.026 0.012 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.02 0.0324 0.034 0.0282
1985 0.018 0.012 0.007 0.008 0.013 0.006 0.002 0.003 0.006 0.0119 0.009 0.007 0.0086
1986 0.042 0.02 0.033 0.047 0.014 0.007 0.009 0.007 0.003 0.0099 0.0183 0.013 0.0186
1987 0.053 0.04 0.017 0.015 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.0046 0.0198 0.017 0.0152
1988 0.06 0.046 0.017 0.028 0.008 0.003 0.003 0.009 0.014 0.0214 0.0227 0.025 0.0214
1989 0.05 0.065 0.02 0.031 0.012 0.005 0.004 0.001 0.007 0.0375 0.0188 0.009 0.0216
1990 0.056 0.029 0.023 0.01 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.003 0.0259 0.0349 0.027 0.0201
1991 0.026 0.027 0.047 0.024 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.002 0.0061 0.0175 0.02 0.0168
1992 0.028 0.014 0.017 0.016 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.008 0.0168 0.0068 0.007 0.0112
1993 0.031 0.037 0.103 0.06 0.019 0.01 0.009 0.007 0.01 0.0374 0.0296 0.026 0.0317
1994 0.068 0.046 0.071 0.067 0.026 0.007 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.0234 0.0186 0.014 0.0299
1995 0.021 0.036 0.026 0.016 0.008 0.007 0.004 0 0.002 0.0123 0.0122 0.021 0.0137
1996 0.037 0.047 0.046 0.026 0.012 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.0203 0.0238 0.011 0.02
1997 0.032 0.058 0.02 0.012 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.005 0.0116 0.0365 0.046 0.0208
1998 0.068 0.05 0.111 0.052 0.019 0.006 0.011 0.007 0.004 0.0245 0.012 0.01 0.0312
1999 0.051 0.102 0.04 0.025 0.016 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.017 0.0074 0.0197 0.025 0.0268
2000 0.023 0.055 0.053 0.035 0.018 0.006 0.008 0.006 0.013 0.0056 0.0081 0.031 0.0218
2001 0.127 0.065 0.1 0.042 0.023 0.011 0.006 0.001 0.003 0.0118 0.0313 0.03 0.0375
2002 0.016 0.02 0.046 0.032 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.007 0.0283 0.0357 0.031 0.0207
2003 0.033 0.023 0.037 0.019 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.005 0.007 0.0116 0.0164 0.02 0.0165
2004 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.008 0.0287 0.042 0.036 0.0167
2005 0.054 0.051 0.057 0.029 0.014 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.003 0.0304 0.014 0.024 0.0248
2006 0.047 0.04 0.081 0.042 0.014 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.0043 0.013 0.02 0.0235
2007 0.056 0.017 0.068 0.053 0.02 0.01 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.0433 0.0385 0.025 0.0286
2008 0.045 0.05 0.05 0.039 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.003 0.01 0.0347 0.0207 0.009 0.0243
2009 0.072 0.055 0.048 0.031 0.016 0.009 0.007 0.008 0.006 0.0344 0.0307 0.023 0.0284
2010 0.019 0.026 0.046 0.029 0.02 0.009 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.0078 0.0154 0.023 0.0171
2011 0.029 0.024 0.038 0.04 0.011 0.003 0.005 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.0116 0.035 0.018
2012 0.067 0.063 0.038 0.025 0.013 0.006 0.008 0.004 0.006 0.0195 0.0274 0.022 0.0248
2013 0.044 0.037 0.057 0.025 0.009 0.009 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.0057 0.0342 0.013 0.0204
MEDIA 0.043 0.041 0.045 0.029 0.014 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.006 0.020 0.022 0.022 0.022
DESV EST 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
MIN 0.014 0.011 0.007 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.007 0.006 0.009
MAX 0.127 0.102 0.111 0.067 0.026 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.017 0.047 0.044 0.046 0.037

COMPARACION DE CAUDALES GENERADOS PARA PERIODO EXTENDIO Y CAUDAL OBSERVADO

MES Q.M.GEN. EXT(m3/s) Q.M.OBS (m3/s)

SEP 0.006 0.000
OCT 0.020 0.000
NOV 0.022 0.000
DIC 0.022 0.000
 ENE 0.043 0.000
FEB 0.041 0.000
MAR 0.045 0.000
ABR 0.029 0.000
MAY 0.014 0.000
JUN 0.007 0.000
JUL 0.006 0.000
AGO 0.004 0.000

Q. M. GEN. EXT (m3/s) VS Q. M. OBSERVADO(m3/s)

0.050

0.045

0.040

0.035
Q.M.GEN. EXT(m3/s)
0.030
Q.M.OBS (m3/s)
0.025

0.020

0.015

0.010

0.005

0.000
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
S*(1 - R^2)^0.5
m3/s)
s)

O
ANEXO 05: PROCEDIMIENTO DE VALIDACIÓN

A-05a: VALIDACIÓN DEL MODELO LUTZ SCHOLZ

RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS DE AÑO PROMEDIO

SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
PP(mm) 46.7 144.8 128.4 161.7 146.0 187.9 209.6 170.5 67.3 21.2 11.9 7.9
PE(mm) 7.8 74.1 58.2 88.6 74.6 116.5 138.2 94.3 14.2 3.5 2.1 1.5
QMG-AP 0.005 0.029 0.035 0.048 0.033 0.058 0.060 0.077 0.019 0.007 0.004 0.002
QM-O 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

COEFICIENTES DE CURVAS ELEGIDAS

coef I II III AR(km2) 1.45

a0 -0.018 -0.021 -0.028 R(mm/año) 94.55
a1 -0.019 0.136 0.276 w 0.026
a2 0.001 -0.002 -0.004 a 0.0251
a3 -1E-05 4.3E-05 5.5E-05
a4 1E-07 -8.9E-08 1.2E-07 b 0.471 bo=𝑒^(−𝑎
a5 -3E-10 -8.8E-11 -1.4E-09 ∗𝑡)

CALCULO DE C, ai y bi POR DEDUCCIÓN

PRECIPITACIÓN MENSUAL CONTRIB. RETENCIÓN CAUDALES CAUDALES

GENERADOS OBSERVADOS
N° P Efectiva Gasto Abastecimiento
MES Dias Total PE I PE II PE bi Gi ai Ai
mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes % mm/mes % mm/mesmm/mes m3/s mm/mes m3/s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEP 30 46.7 0.9 5.3 -5.6 26.00 5.6 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
OCT 31 144.8 29.1 58.8 -15.1 -16.01 -15.1 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
NOV 30 128.4 19.5 44.4 -17.4 -18.40 -17.4 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
DIC 31 161.7 41.9 75.2 -7.6 -8.01 -7.6 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
ENE 30 146.0 29.9 59.6 -14.3 -15.11 -14.3 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
FEB 28 187.9 68.4 101.4 19.3 20.38 19.3 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
MAR 31 209.6 96.4 123.2 56.6 59.88 56.6 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
ABR 30 170.5 49.9 84.1 -0.9 4.00 0.9 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
MAY 31 67.3 2.6 10.0 -8.4 38.94 8.4 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
JUN 30 21.2 0.0 2.2 -3.3 15.38 3.3 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
JUL 31 11.9 0.0 1.3 -2.0 9.27 2.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
AGO 31 7.9 0.0 0.9 -1.4 6.40 1.4 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
AÑO 1303.9 338.7 566.5 0.0 100.0 21.49 23 21.49 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
COEF 0.000 2.487 -1.487 1.00
NUEVOS VALORES DE LOS PARAMETROS AJUSTADOS
ABASTECIMIENTO % GASTO %
mes % mes %
oct -16 abr 4.0
nov -18 may 38.9
dic -8 jun 15.4
ene -15 jul 9.3
feb 20 ago 6.4
mar 60 sep 26.0
SUMA 23 SUMA 100.0

ELECCIÓN DE NUEVAS CURVAS

I II
-1.8E-02 -2E-02
-1.9E-02 1E-01
1.1E-03 -2E-03
-1.2E-05 4E-05
1.4E-07 -9E-08
-2.9E-10 -9E-11

PARÁMETROS DEL MODELO

C 0
AR 1.45 Km2
R 94.55 mm/año
W 0.026 ad(depende del tipo de cuenca)
a 0.025
b 0.4715

CÁLCULO CON VALORES AJUSTADOS PARA EL AÑO PROMEDIO

PRECIPITACIÓN MENSUAL CONTRIBUCIÓN DE LA RETENCAUDALES CAUDALES

N° P Efectiva Gasto AbastecimientoGENERADOS OBSEVARDOS
MES días del Total PE I PE II PE bi Gi ai Ai
mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes % mm/mes mm/mes m3/s mm/mes m3/s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEP 30 46.7 0.9 5.3 -5.6 26.0 24.58 19.0 0.011 0.0 0.000
OCT 31 144.8 29.1 58.8 -15.1 -16.01 -15.1 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
NOV 30 128.4 19.5 44.4 -17.4 -18.40 -17.4 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
DIC 31 161.7 41.9 75.2 -7.6 -8.01 -7.6 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
ENE 30 146.0 29.9 60.0 -14.8 -15.11 -14.3 -0.5 0.000 0.0 0.000
FEB 28 187.9 68.4 101.4 19.3 20.38 19.3 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.000
MAR 31 209.6 96.4 120.7 60.3 59.88 56.6 3.7 0.002 0.0 0.000
ABR 30 170.5 49.9 84.1 -0.9 4.0 3.782 2.9 0.002 0.0 0.000
MAY 31 67.3 2.6 10.0 -8.4 38.9 36.82 28.5 0.015 0.0 0.000
JUN 30 21.2 0.0 2.2 -3.3 15.4 14.54 11.2 0.006 0.0 0.000
 JUL 31 11.9 0.0 1.3 -2.0 9.3 8.765 0.004
6.8 0.0 0.000
AGO 31 7.9 0.0 0.9 -1.4 6.4 6.05 4.68 0.003 0.0 0.000
AÑO 1303.9 338.7 564.4 3.2 100.0 94.54 22.7 21.49 76.3 0.042 0.0 0.000
COEF 0 2.501 -1.501 1.00

Q. GEN. Y Q. OBS. EN m3/s

0.018

0.016

0.014

0.012

0.010
Q (m3/s)

0.008 Q GEN
(m3/s)
0.006 Q
OBS(m
0.004 3/s)

0.002

0.000
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
-0.002

Qt Qt-1 PE MES PP PE
SEP 19.0 4.68 -5.6 SEP 46.7 1.8 N 63.25 0
OC 0.0 19.00 -15.1 OCT 144.8 50.5 PE MET CHOW 470.1
NO 0.0 0.0 -17.4 NOV 128.4 39.7 PE MODELO LUTZ S 3.2
DIC 0.0 0.0 -7.6 DIC 161.7 62.5
EN -0.5 0.0 -14.8 ENE 146.0 51.4
FEB 0.0 -0.5 19.3 FEB 187.9 82 𝑃𝐸=(10∗(𝑃/10−508/𝑁+5.08)^
MA 3.7 0.0 60.3 MAR 209.6 99 2)/(P/10+2032/N−20.32)
AB 2.9 3.7 -0.9 ABR 170.5 68.9
MA 28.5 2.9 -8.4 MAY 67.3 7.7
JU 11.2 28.5 -3.3 JUN 21.2 0.5
JUL 6.8 11.2 -2.0 JUL 11.9 2.4
AG 4.7 6.8 -1.4 AGO 7.9 3.7
Método SCS, Chow

CÁLCULO DE COEFICIENTES DE REGRESIÓN MULTIPLE

Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coefici 0.8952
Coefici 0.8014
R^2 aj 0.7572
Error tí 6.6781
Observ 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de
Suma
libertad
Promedio
de cuadrados
de los cuadrados
Valor
F crítico de F
Regresi 2 1619.4 809.7 18.156 0.001
Residu 9 401.38 44.597
Total 11 2020.8

Coeficientes
Error típico
Estadístico
Probabilidad
t InferiorSuperior
95% Inferior
95% Superior
95.0% 95.0%
Interce 1.7963 4.1319 0.4347 0.674 -7.551 11.14 -7.551 11.143
Variabl 0.6844 0.151 4.5329 0.0014 0.343 1.026 0.3428 1.0259
Variabl 0.2385 0.077 3.0971 0.0128 0.064 0.413 0.0643 0.4128
250.0

200.0

150.0
PP(mm)
PE(mm)
100.0

50.0

0.0
0.090
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
0.080

0.070

0.060

0.050
Row 9
0.040 Row 10

0.030

0.020

0.010

0.000
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO

PE/P C ESCURRIM C DE AJUSTE

-0.12 0.00 0.120
-0.10 0.00 0.105
-0.14 0.00 0.135
-0.05 0.00 0.047
-0.10 0.00 0.098
0.10 0.00 -0.103
0.27 0.00 -0.270
-0.01 0.00 0.005
-0.12 0.00 0.124
-0.16 0.00 0.156
-0.17 0.00 0.168
 -0.18 0.00 0.175
-0.063 0.000

Q GEN (m3/s)Q OBS(m3/s)

SEP 0.011 0.000
OCT 0.000 0.000
NOV 0.000 0.000
DIC 0.000 0.000
ENE 0.000 0.000
FEB 0.000 0.000
MAR 0.002 0.000
ABR 0.002 0.000
MAY 0.015 0.000
JUN 0.006 0.000
JUL 0.004 0.000
AGO 0.003 0.000
0 0 0 0 0 0
ANEXO 06: GENERACIÓN DE CAUDALES PARA PERIODO EXTENDIDO

A -06a: PRECIPITACIÓN MEDIA AREAL DE LA MICROCUENCA (mm)

ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOT
1978 29.1 44.9 72.8 54.0 99.3 8.1 3.9 5.2 27.4 40.0 77.8 60.3 523
1979 192.9 106.5 239.6 54.2 24.7 3.7 6.7 21.6 38.7 40.0 37.9 62.7 829
1980 80.0 55.3 97.5 42.8 10.4 31.3 2.8 7.7 2.7 213.6 160.0 143.6 848
1981 179.3 243.4 158.6 49.2 22.2 13.7 6.4 17.5 25.3 183.3 65.7 149.7 1114
1982 164.4 134.3 113.6 129.5 57.8 16.1 1.9 9.1 50.6 204.5 97.0 117.6 1096
1983 267.4 98.4 227.5 154.4 47.1 20.9 8.5 3.7 22.1 142.4 40.5 159.3 1192
1984 56.6 304.9 185.8 116.8 105.2 51.9 20.8 25.7 42.3 112.4 140.7 140.1 1303
1985 56.4 55.3 55.8 61.2 80.2 0.8 4.3 25.2 43.0 81.9 34.4 54.2 553
1986 193.5 62.3 145.2 175.6 24.5 1.2 1.1 20.1 1.4 71.4 95.4 69.7 861
1987 225.2 124.3 58.8 76.2 16.8 8.3 9.6 16.9 45.5 60.9 107.1 81.4 831
1988 251.6 137.7 67.2 139.6 16.0 11.2 0.0 45.2 80.0 106.8 91.4 99.0 1046
1989 199.5 207.3 65.3 124.7 28.4 34.6 2.8 8.1 61.6 174.6 67.9 3.6 979
1990 233.5 89.4 87.5 40.0 60.2 50.9 0.7 9.8 23.2 143.5 142.8 97.3 979
1991 100.4 117.5 200.6 80.6 27.1 1.4 0.4 0.4 11.8 46.2 79.4 96.7 763
1992 120.6 41.5 99.9 67.9 28.6 43.9 4.1 13.8 47.0 104.9 46.1 45.9 664
1993 139.9 146.5 367.6 150.3 44.8 3.9 2.9 4.0 59.2 174.2 102.9 113.2 1309
1994 268.1 134.6 255.4 211.6 45.1 23.0 4.9 13.3 36.6 114.4 87.6 88.7 1283
1995 102.5 141.4 113.6 72.6 31.2 3.5 11.7 14.9 13.3 84.9 72.8 102.8 765
1996 149.5 161.9 181.5 73.6 20.7 1.7 0.4 21.7 16.0 124.8 99.1 45.9 897
1997 146.3 199.6 39.8 59.0 25.7 31.9 0.2 0.0 31.6 83.2 161.3 174.1 953
1998 240.8 152.1 385.6 122.5 29.7 9.9 1.2 6.5 20.5 130.4 41.9 64.4 1206
1999 217.4 316.8 104.3 94.1 81.3 47.2 19.6 1.7 93.8 35.6 111.0 92.2 1215
2000 105.5 210.3 189.5 112.9 61.3 32.3 1.9 18.4 65.2 16.2 64.1 164.5 1042
2001 438.5 131.6 345.4 83.5 72.8 4.8 12.4 0.0 39.6 75.7 134.6 122.3 1461
2002 61.9 79.4 199.7 112.7 34.8 18.2 9.5 4.7 16.8 147.9 144.0 115.8 946
2003 117.2 80.1 155.4 61.5 46.5 46.2 1.6 14.6 17.1 75.4 91.9 108.6 816
2004 82.8 74.3 66.8 61.9 3.2 38.9 26.1 26.1 73.1 151.7 178.3 137.2 920
2005 194.7 155.7 204.1 78.9 10.9 9.3 0.5 4.8 35.9 151.2 43.2 118.1 1007
2006 190.8 132.6 299.0 113.3 11.7 49.5 1.6 8.4 38.7 20.8 87.0 109.9 1063
2007 218.8 22.8 273.7 162.8 36.3 2.9 9.5 8.8 13.4 194.8 140.7 92.6 1177
2008 183.9 174.0 177.6 144.7 34.3 31.9 2.0 25.2 58.0 152.5 85.5 32.0 1102
2009 285.8 154.7 176.4 118.6 56.7 18.1 9.1 8.1 8.9 174.8 119.2 100.6 1231
2010 73.3 113.1 185.7 99.5 84.5 25.6 5.6 2.6 23.5 50.7 73.9 105.7 844
2011 118.2 85.0 155.2 153.2 21.5 2.8 8.1 0.8 41.0 60.2 63.4 166.6 876
2012 238.1 184.7 141.5 72.2 47.1 5.0 0.1 14.1 43.5 111.1 131.2 90.7 1079
2013 167.6 126.8 213.9 73.5 7.7 49.0 5.7 21.5 24.8 6.1 159.5 14.7 871
MEDIA 169.2 133.4 169.6 100 40.45 20.93 5.794 12.5 35.92 107.3 96.586 98.38 990
DESV EST. 83.08 67.52 89.25 42.28 26.3 17.48 6.196 9.909 21.83 57.421 39.805 41.97 214
MIN 29.1 22.8 39.8 40.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.1 34.4 3.6 523
MAX 438.5 316.8 385.6 211.6 105.2 51.9 26.1 45.2 93.8 213.6 178.3 174.1 1461
A-06b: PRECIPITACIÓN EFECTIVA GENERADA
N 63.25

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1978 0.0 1.5 9.8 3.5 22.4 3.6 5.4 4.8 0.0 0.7 11.9 5.3 69
1979 85.8 26.4 123.4 3.5 0.2 5.5 4.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 6.1 257
1980 12.9 3.8 21.5 1.1 2.8 0.0 5.9 3.8 6.0 102.2 61.2 49.7 271
1981 75.5 126.6 60.2 2.3 0.4 1.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 78.5 7.1 54.0 412
1982 64.4 43.5 30.5 40.4 4.5 1.3 6.4 3.3 2.6 94.9 21.2 32.9 346
1983 146.8 21.9 113.4 57.2 1.9 0.5 3.5 5.5 0.4 48.9 0.8 60.7 462
1984 4.2 179.3 80.3 32.5 25.6 3.0 0.5 0.1 1.0 29.8 47.7 47.3 451
1985 4.1 3.8 4.0 5.6 13.0 6.9 5.2 0.1 1.1 13.7 0.2 3.5 61
1986 86.3 5.9 50.9 72.6 0.2 6.7 6.8 0.6 6.6 9.3 20.3 8.6 275
1987 111.5 37.0 4.9 11.2 1.2 3.6 3.1 1.2 1.6 5.5 26.7 13.5 221
1988 133.4 45.8 7.7 47.0 1.4 2.6 7.4 1.5 12.9 26.6 18.3 22.3 327
1989 91.0 97.1 7.0 37.3 0.0 0.2 5.9 3.6 5.7 72.0 7.9 5.5 333
1990 118.3 17.3 16.3 0.7 5.3 2.7 7.0 3.1 0.3 49.7 49.2 21.3 291
1991 23.0 32.8 91.9 13.1 0.0 6.6 7.2 7.1 2.4 1.7 12.6 21.0 219
1992 34.8 0.9 22.7 7.9 0.0 1.3 5.3 1.9 1.9 25.5 1.7 1.6 106
1993 47.2 51.7 235.3 54.4 1.4 5.4 5.8 5.3 5.0 71.6 24.4 30.3 538
1994 147.4 43.7 136.6 100.6 1.5 0.3 4.9 2.0 0.3 31.0 16.4 16.9 502
1995 24.2 48.2 30.5 9.7 0.0 5.6 2.4 1.6 2.0 15.1 9.8 24.3 173
1996 53.8 62.6 77.1 10.1 0.6 6.5 7.1 0.4 1.4 37.4 22.3 1.6 281
1997 51.6 91.1 0.7 4.9 0.1 0.0 7.3 7.4 0.0 14.3 62.1 71.6 311
1998 124.4 55.6 251.7 36.0 0.0 3.0 6.7 4.3 0.6 41.0 1.0 6.7 531
1999 105.2 189.8 25.1 19.6 13.4 1.9 0.7 6.5 19.5 0.2 29.0 18.7 430
2000 25.8 99.5 83.2 30.1 5.6 0.1 6.4 0.9 7.0 1.3 6.6 64.5 331
2001 300.5 41.7 215.3 14.5 9.8 5.0 2.3 7.4 0.6 11.0 43.7 35.8 688
2002 5.8 12.6 91.1 30.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 5.0 1.2 52.7 50.0 31.9 285
2003 32.7 12.9 58.0 5.7 1.7 1.7 6.5 1.7 1.1 10.9 18.6 27.6 179
2004 14.1 10.4 7.5 5.8 5.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 9.9 55.3 74.7 45.4 230
2005 87.2 58.2 94.6 12.4 2.7 3.2 7.1 5.0 0.3 55.0 1.2 33.2 360
2006 84.2 42.4 174.2 30.4 2.5 2.4 6.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 16.1 28.4 392
2007 106.3 0.3 152.2 63.3 0.3 5.9 3.1 3.4 2.0 87.3 47.7 18.9 491
2008 78.9 71.5 74.2 50.5 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.1 4.6 55.9 15.4 0.0 358
2009 162.7 57.5 73.2 33.5 4.2 1.0 3.3 3.6 3.4 72.1 33.9 23.1 472
2010 10.0 30.2 80.3 22.5 14.9 0.1 4.6 6.0 0.3 2.7 10.3 25.9 208
2011 33.3 15.1 57.8 56.4 0.5 5.9 3.6 6.9 0.8 5.3 6.3 66.0 258
2012 122.2 79.5 48.3 9.6 1.9 4.9 7.3 1.8 1.2 29.0 41.5 17.9 365
2013 66.8 38.7 102.4 10.1 3.8 2.3 4.6 0.5 0.2 4.4 60.9 1.7 296
MEDIA 74.34 48.8 75.38 26.28 4.164 2.864 4.939 3.097 2.917 33.714 24.422 26.21 327.13
DESV EST 60.92 45.58 66.08 23.96 6.288 2.316 2.062 2.378 4.122 30.63 20.929 20.11 136.68
MIN 0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.2 0.2 0 61.2
MAX 300.5 189.8 251.7 100.6 25.6 6.9 7.4 7.4 19.5 102.2 74.7 71.6 687.6
A -06c: NÚMEROS ALEATORIOS CON DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL ESTANDAR (0,1)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
1978 -0.04 -0.37 -0.29 -1.05 -0.02 0.01 1.65 0.77 -0.07 -0.41 1.77 0.65
1979 -2.67 -0.54 -1.65 0.88 -0.74 -2.14 0.17 0.10 -1.11 -1.14 -0.20 -0.21
1980 -0.87 1.36 -1.12 -0.65 -0.56 -0.86 -0.47 -0.25 -0.55 -0.83 -0.66 0.49
1981 -0.71 0.47 0.33 0.74 -0.02 -1.59 -0.89 0.97 0.72 1.41 -0.23 -1.00
1982 -0.03 0.28 1.21 0.43 -0.37 -0.87 0.05 1.28 -0.04 0.19 -0.68 0.01
1983 -1.27 -1.19 -0.24 0.61 -1.08 -0.17 -0.20 -2.53 0.46 0.56 1.91 -1.37
1984 0.26 -0.46 -0.61 0.90 -0.14 -1.97 0.32 -1.56 0.53 -0.05 1.76 0.85
1985 0.51 -0.14 -0.24 1.78 -0.76 -0.39 0.42 1.66 -2.04 0.23 -0.66 0.03
1986 -0.34 -0.52 -0.31 1.06 0.83 1.10 -0.20 0.38 -0.59 2.42 1.33 1.05
1987 0.81 0.26 1.77 2.11 0.58 -0.46 1.50 0.77 1.35 1.07 -0.23 1.08
1988 1.23 -1.77 -0.82 -0.39 -1.56 0.89 0.06 -1.72 -0.42 1.74 1.32 -1.07
1989 -1.15 0.92 -0.86 -1.71 -2.50 0.92 -1.41 -0.62 -1.31 -1.58 -0.10 -1.65
1990 -0.19 0.67 -0.76 0.21 -0.52 0.88 0.37 0.00 -3.00 -0.37 -2.78 0.23
1991 0.73 -0.28 0.36 -0.59 -0.14 -0.07 -1.46 1.52 0.57 0.41 -0.53 0.03
1992 -0.47 -0.07 -1.79 0.10 -0.97 -0.85 1.55 -1.74 0.61 -0.60 0.09 -0.37
1993 0.46 -1.33 -2.72 -0.10 -1.29 1.42 -0.14 0.64 -0.76 -0.43 0.93 0.92
1994 -1.19 0.87 -0.79 -0.12 -1.00 1.11 0.05 1.67 0.77 0.05 -0.46 -0.51
1995 -0.39 -0.71 -2.36 -0.27 0.18 -0.45 1.05 -0.25 -0.25 1.23 -0.98 1.72
1996 0.69 -0.65 -0.79 -2.58 -1.78 -1.52 -1.50 1.55 0.88 1.00 1.74 -1.46
1997 0.17 -0.41 -0.20 1.38 1.99 -0.16 0.68 -0.37 0.04 0.85 -1.60 -0.86
1998 1.47 -0.75 -0.15 -0.97 -0.38 0.86 0.20 1.16 0.21 0.81 -0.62 0.70
1999 -0.38 -0.24 -1.06 0.13 -2.07 -0.37 -0.80 -0.45 0.25 -0.29 -0.39 0.29
2000 0.08 0.28 -0.18 0.34 -1.39 1.37 -0.70 -0.85 0.86 -0.80 1.00 -0.62
2001 1.60 0.99 -0.03 0.69 -0.78 1.09 1.04 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.29 -0.73
2002 -0.64 -1.81 -1.00 1.32 -0.18 0.53 -0.18 1.32 -1.29 -0.45 0.62 -0.69
2003 2.11 -2.30 0.05 0.86 -0.72 -0.19 1.21 -0.06 -1.14 -0.24 1.33 0.78
2004 -0.45 0.56 -0.05 2.26 0.55 -0.69 0.92 -0.78 -1.36 -0.06 -0.62 0.40
2005 0.74 -0.24 0.20 -0.47 -0.35 0.78 -0.44 -0.11 0.49 1.48 0.30 -1.43
2006 -0.55 1.35 0.48 0.55 -0.31 -0.48 0.36 0.89 0.28 -0.04 1.85 2.13
2007 0.49 -0.19 1.17 -0.27 -1.40 -0.90 -0.56 0.21 1.12 -2.10 -0.05 -1.84
2008 -1.77 -1.42 -0.98 0.45 -0.86 1.40 -1.66 0.62 -1.50 0.31 0.31 -1.64
2009 0.53 0.83 -0.61 -0.38 0.85 -0.70 -0.27 0.02 -1.67 0.19 0.50 -0.50
2010 1.08 0.14 -0.67 0.98 -0.01 -0.09 0.28 1.16 1.15 -0.76 -0.10 -0.06
2011 -1.71 0.34 -1.27 -1.07 0.51 -0.19 -0.32 0.63 0.37 -0.06 -1.02 0.16
2012 0.43 1.58 -1.15 0.55 0.22 0.13 1.57 -0.99 -1.51 1.34 -0.08 0.64
2013 -0.04 -0.13 -0.49 0.22 -0.46 -0.08 0.06 0.15 -0.20 0.15 0.15 -0.11
MEDIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESV EST 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIN -2.67 -2.30 -2.72 -2.58 -2.50 -2.14 -1.66 -2.53 -3.00 -2.10 -2.78 -1.84
MAX 2.11 1.58 1.77 2.26 1.99 1.42 1.65 1.67 1.35 2.42 1.91 2.13
COEFICIENTES DE REGRESION MULTIPLE
b1 1.796 b2 0.684 b3 0.239 Qt = b1 + b2*Qt-1 + b3*PEt + Z*S*(1 - R^2)^0.5
S 6.678 R^2 0.895

A -06d: DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES(mm)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
PROM -0.5 0.0 3.7 2.9 28.5 11.2 6.8 4.7 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76
1978 1.7 2.5 5.2 3.9 9.8 9.4 13.1 13.6 10.9 8.5 14.3 14.3 107
1979 26.2 24.9 44.7 35.1 24.3 15.1 13.5 11.4 7.3 4.5 4.6 5.9 217
1980 7.1 10.5 11.7 8.6 7.2 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.1 28.5 34.5 38.3 169
1981 44.5 63.5 60.3 45.2 32.8 21.3 15.4 14.7 13.4 32.8 25.4 29.9 399
1982 37.6 38.5 38.0 38.4 28.3 19.6 16.9 16.9 13.9 34.3 28.9 29.4 341
1983 54.2 41.6 56.8 55.6 38.0 27.5 21.0 12.0 11.1 22.3 21.4 27.9 389
1984 22.5 59.0 60.0 52.5 43.5 28.1 21.8 13.4 12.3 17.2 28.8 34.6 394
1985 27.6 21.3 16.8 18.5 15.9 13.5 13.2 14.4 7.5 10.7 7.7 8.0 175
1986 27.1 20.6 27.4 40.1 31.1 27.1 21.5 17.5 14.1 18.9 22.4 21.5 289
1987 44.8 41.9 35.5 33.3 26.1 19.5 19.1 16.9 16.6 16.8 19.2 20.5 310
1988 50.3 43.3 31.5 33.7 21.8 19.3 16.9 10.0 10.8 19.3 22.2 20.0 299
1989 34.7 50.7 36.3 31.8 18.2 16.3 11.3 9.0 6.5 20.0 17.2 11.3 263
1990 37.3 32.9 26.6 20.6 16.0 15.3 14.7 12.6 4.0 15.6 18.2 19.8 234
1991 22.4 24.4 41.2 31.8 23.3 19.1 13.5 16.0 14.5 13.0 12.6 15.5 247
1992 19.7 15.3 13.8 13.4 8.9 6.3 10.7 5.8 7.6 11.8 10.4 8.5 132
1993 19.9 24.9 69.1 61.8 41.6 34.7 26.6 22.6 16.8 29.5 29.8 31.4 409
1994 55.9 52.3 68.5 72.4 49.5 38.2 29.2 25.9 21.3 23.8 21.0 19.1 477
1995 19.8 25.3 21.3 18.1 14.6 12.1 12.9 10.5 8.9 14.1 11.7 19.3 189
1996 29.3 35.4 42.7 27.8 17.2 11.8 8.3 10.9 11.5 20.8 25.1 16.2 257
1997 25.6 40.1 29.0 25.8 23.8 17.7 17.1 14.5 11.8 15.1 23.5 33.1 277
1998 57.3 52.6 97.5 75.0 52.3 40.2 31.3 26.8 20.7 27.5 19.5 18.3 519
1999 38.6 73.0 55.4 44.7 31.1 22.7 15.8 13.2 16.0 12.2 16.2 18.0 357
2000 20.4 40.1 48.7 43.0 29.6 25.0 18.9 13.1 14.3 10.2 12.5 24.4 300
2001 93.6 78.0 106.4 79.6 56.9 44.3 34.9 27.6 23.0 20.6 27.0 27.2 619
2002 20.4 14.9 31.5 33.4 24.3 19.8 15.7 16.6 10.6 20.7 29.2 27.9 265
2003 33.3 22.7 31.3 26.4 18.7 14.6 15.9 13.0 8.5 9.7 15.7 20.8 231
2004 18.4 18.1 15.9 18.9 17.3 12.3 12.2 8.5 7.0 19.7 31.7 35.2 215
2005 48.3 48.2 57.8 43.3 31.3 25.7 20.1 16.5 14.2 27.8 21.8 21.5 377
2006 35.4 39.1 71.1 58.9 42.0 30.1 24.7 21.5 17.2 13.6 19.0 26.2 399
2007 46.1 33.0 63.2 59.6 39.6 28.4 20.7 17.2 16.5 29.4 33.2 25.0 412
2008 33.9 39.0 44.1 45.0 30.8 25.9 17.4 15.1 10.0 22.6 21.6 13.1 319
2009 50.7 52.0 53.5 45.6 35.9 25.1 19.2 15.8 9.8 26.1 28.8 26.0 388
2010 24.3 25.9 37.2 34.8 29.1 21.6 18.3 18.2 16.8 12.3 12.5 16.4 267
2011 17.3 17.9 25.1 30.1 23.6 19.0 14.9 15.0 13.1 11.9 9.2 24.2 221
2012 48.4 57.3 50.1 39.5 29.8 23.6 23.1 15.9 9.7 18.3 24.0 23.9 364
2013 34.0 34.0 48.4 37.8 27.6 21.1 17.5 14.2 11.1 10.8 24.0 18.4 299
MEDIA 33.20 35.5 42.6 37.5 28.1 21.3 17.6 14.8 12.6 18.1 20.1 21.4 302.8
DESV EST 17.79 18.3 23.1 18.6 11.8 9.0 6.3 5.3 4.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 113.5
MIN -0.5 0.0 3.7 2.9 7.2 4.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.3
MAX 93.6 78.0 106.4 79.6 56.9 44.3 34.9 27.6 23.0 34.3 34.5 38.3 619.1

AREA DE LA MICROCUENCA

AREA MICROCUENCA(km2): 1.45

A -06e: DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES GENERADAS PARA PERIODO EXTENDIDO (m3/s)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC PROM
Nro DIAS 30 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31
1978 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.0046 0.008 0.008 0.0049
1979 0.015 0.015 0.024 0.02 0.013 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.0024 0.0026 0.003 0.0101
1980 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.0155 0.0193 0.021 0.0078
1981 0.025 0.038 0.033 0.025 0.018 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.0177 0.0142 0.016 0.0185
1982 0.021 0.023 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.0186 0.0162 0.016 0.0158
1983 0.03 0.025 0.031 0.031 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.0121 0.0119 0.015 0.018
1984 0.013 0.035 0.032 0.029 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.007 0.007 0.0093 0.0161 0.019 0.0183
1985 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.01 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.004 0.0058 0.0043 0.004 0.0081
1986 0.015 0.012 0.015 0.022 0.017 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.0102 0.0126 0.012 0.0133
1987 0.025 0.025 0.019 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.01 0.009 0.009 0.0091 0.0107 0.011 0.0144
1988 0.028 0.026 0.017 0.019 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.005 0.006 0.0104 0.0124 0.011 0.0139
1989 0.019 0.03 0.02 0.018 0.01 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0108 0.0096 0.006 0.0123
1990 0.021 0.02 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.002 0.0085 0.0102 0.011 0.0109
1991 0.013 0.015 0.022 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.0071 0.007 0.008 0.0114
1992 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.0064 0.0058 0.005 0.0061
1993 0.011 0.015 0.037 0.035 0.023 0.019 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.016 0.0167 0.017 0.0188
1994 0.031 0.031 0.037 0.041 0.027 0.021 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.0129 0.0118 0.01 0.0221
1995 0.011 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.0077 0.0065 0.01 0.0087
1996 0.016 0.021 0.023 0.016 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.0112 0.014 0.009 0.0119
1997 0.014 0.024 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.01 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.0082 0.0131 0.018 0.0129
1998 0.032 0.032 0.053 0.042 0.028 0.022 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.0149 0.0109 0.01 0.024
1999 0.022 0.044 0.03 0.025 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.0066 0.0091 0.01 0.0167
2000 0.011 0.024 0.026 0.024 0.016 0.014 0.01 0.007 0.008 0.0055 0.007 0.013 0.0139
2001 0.052 0.047 0.058 0.045 0.031 0.025 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.0112 0.0151 0.015 0.0287
2002 0.011 0.009 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.0112 0.0163 0.015 0.0122
2003 0.019 0.014 0.017 0.015 0.01 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.0052 0.0088 0.011 0.0107
2004 0.01 0.011 0.009 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.0107 0.0178 0.019 0.0099
2005 0.027 0.029 0.031 0.024 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.0151 0.0122 0.012 0.0175
2006 0.02 0.023 0.039 0.033 0.023 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.01 0.0074 0.0106 0.014 0.0184
2007 0.026 0.02 0.034 0.033 0.021 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.0159 0.0186 0.014 0.019
2008 0.019 0.023 0.024 0.025 0.017 0.014 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.0123 0.0121 0.007 0.0148
2009 0.028 0.031 0.029 0.026 0.019 0.014 0.01 0.009 0.005 0.0141 0.0161 0.014 0.018
2010 0.014 0.016 0.02 0.019 0.016 0.012 0.01 0.01 0.009 0.0067 0.007 0.009 0.0124
2011 0.01 0.011 0.014 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.0064 0.0052 0.013 0.0102
2012 0.027 0.034 0.027 0.022 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.005 0.0099 0.0134 0.013 0.0169
 2013 0.019 0.02 0.026 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.0058 0.0134 0.01 0.0138
MEDIA 0.019 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.014
DESV EST 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
MIN 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.005
MAX 0.052 0.047 0.058 0.045 0.031 0.025 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.021 0.029

A -06f: COMPARACIÓN DE CAUDALES GENERADOS PARA PERIODO EXTENDIO Y CAUDAL OBSERVADO

MES Q.M.GEN. EXT(m3/s) Q.M.OBS (m3/s)

SEP 0.007 0.170
OCT 0.010 0.222
NOV 0.012 0.202
DIC 0.012 0.293
ENE 0.019 0.380
FEB 0.022 0.635
MAR 0.024 0.688
ABR 0.022 0.741
MAY 0.015 0.385
JUN 0.012 0.270
JUL 0.010 0.162
AGO 0.008 0.168

Q. M. GEN. EXT. (m3/s) VS Q. M. OBS. (m3/s)

0.800

Q.M.GEN.
0.700 EXT(m3/s)
Q.M.OBS (m3/s)
0.600

0.500
Q TOTAL (m3/s)

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
 0.300

Q
0.200

0.100

0.000
SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
Prueba t para medias de dos muestras emparejadas

Variable 1 Variable 2
Media 0.39804045 0.35957612
Varianza 0.02630382 0.04529784
Observaciones 12 12
Coeficiente de correlación de Pearson 0.94746026
Diferencia hipotética de las medias 0
Grados de libertad 11
Estadístico t 1.69324138 2.43545153
P(T<=t) una cola 0.05925166
Valor crítico de t (una cola) 1.79588482
P(T<=t) dos colas 0.11850331
Valor crítico de t (dos colas) 2.20098516
ANEXO 08: CALCULO DE VOLUMEN TOTAL Y APROVECHABLE

A-08a: VOLUMEN TOTAL DE AGUA EN LA MICROCUENCA DURANTE LOS AÑOS HIDROLÓGICOS 2008-2012
VOLUMEN GENERADOS CON EL MODELO VALIDADO

AÑO- SET OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO Volumen
HID 30 31 30 31 30 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 MMC
2008 0.006 0.012 0.012 0.007 0.028 0.031 0.029 0.026 0.019 0.014 0.010 0.009 14.665
2009 0.005 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.016 0.020 0.019 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.010 12.055
2010 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.008 8.879
2011 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.013 0.027 0.034 0.027 0.022 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.009 13.907
2012 0.005 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.020 0.026 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 12.471
MED 0.007 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.020 0.022 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.009 12.395
VOLUMEN TOTAL m3 PARA LOS AÑOS HIDROLOGICOS 2008-2012 61.977

SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO V (MMC)
Aprov -0.058 -0.055 -0.054 -0.054 -0.045 -0.043 -0.042 -0.044 -0.049 -0.053 -0.055 ### 10.351
0.025

0.020

0.015

Row 13
0.010

0.005

0.000
SET OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
VOLUMEN A PARTIR DE CAUDALES OBSERVADOS

AÑO- SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO Volumen
HID 30 31 30 31 30 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 MMC
2008 0.124 0.182 0.210 0.106 0.553 0.866 0.946 0.890 0.430 0.266 0.196 0.153 12.783
2009 0.150 0.418 0.281 0.613 0.328 0.413 0.537 0.952 0.472 0.219 0.158 0.132 12.242
2010 0.119 0.131 0.115 0.150 0.201 0.325 0.338 0.927 0.310 0.186 0.166 0.141 8.109
2011 0.167 0.151 0.122 0.271 0.801 1.501 0.802 0.670 0.437 0.258 0.199 0.179 14.320
2012 0.175 0.230 0.209 0.291 0.440 0.675 0.699 0.842 0.411 0.258 0.199 0.179 11.999
Med 0.147 0.222 0.187 0.286 0.465 0.756 0.664 0.856 0.412 0.238 0.183 0.157 11.890
VOLUMEN TOTAL m3 PARA LOS AÑOS HIDROLOGICOS 2008-2012 59.452
 529353.18 0.529353184768323
435149.06 0.435149059147838
320518.00 0.320518002265294
502012.98 0.502012980545605
450153.13 0.450153129102118
447437.27 0.447437271165835
2237186.36 2.23718635582918

-1596787

12782501.28 12.783
12242361.60 12.242
8109158.40 8.109
14319541.58 14.320
11998704.64 11.999
11890453.50 11.890
59452267.50 59.452
26.575
ORDEN ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP
1 0.234 0.194 0.172 0.127 0.191 0.177 0.217 0.217 0.179
2 0.409 0.415 0.671 0.545 0.365 0.234 0.203 0.170 0.113
3 0.109 0.174 0.175 0.134 0.107 0.075 0.082 0.089 0.094
4 0.690 1.054 0.905 0.701 0.492 0.330 0.232 0.221 0.208
5 0.582 0.639 0.570 0.595 0.425 0.304 0.253 0.253 0.215
6 0.840 0.690 0.851 0.862 0.570 0.427 0.316 0.181 0.172
7 0.348 0.979 0.900 0.814 0.653 0.435 0.327 0.201 0.191
8 0.427 0.353 0.252 0.286 0.238 0.209 0.197 0.216 0.116
9 0.420 0.343 0.411 0.622 0.467 0.420 0.323 0.262 0.218
10 0.695 0.695 0.532 0.516 0.392 0.303 0.287 0.253 0.258
11 0.779 0.719 0.472 0.523 0.328 0.299 0.253 0.150 0.167
12 0.538 0.842 0.544 0.493 0.273 0.252 0.169 0.136 0.101
13 0.579 0.547 0.399 0.319 0.240 0.237 0.221 0.190 0.062
14 0.348 0.405 0.618 0.493 0.349 0.297 0.202 0.240 0.225
15 0.305 0.255 0.208 0.207 0.133 0.098 0.161 0.088 0.117
16 0.308 0.413 1.036 0.958 0.625 0.537 0.399 0.340 0.261
17 0.866 0.869 1.027 1.122 0.743 0.592 0.438 0.388 0.329
18 0.307 0.420 0.319 0.280 0.219 0.188 0.194 0.157 0.138
19 0.455 0.588 0.640 0.432 0.257 0.183 0.125 0.164 0.179
20 0.396 0.667 0.435 0.400 0.357 0.275 0.257 0.217 0.183
21 0.888 0.874 1.463 1.163 0.785 0.623 0.470 0.401 0.321
22 0.598 1.211 0.831 0.692 0.466 0.352 0.237 0.198 0.248
23 0.316 0.666 0.730 0.667 0.444 0.388 0.284 0.197 0.222
24 1.451 1.295 1.596 1.233 0.853 0.686 0.523 0.414 0.356
25 0.316 0.247 0.473 0.517 0.365 0.307 0.235 0.249 0.165
26 0.516 0.376 0.469 0.409 0.281 0.226 0.239 0.195 0.131
27 0.286 0.301 0.238 0.294 0.259 0.190 0.183 0.127 0.109
28 0.749 0.801 0.867 0.671 0.470 0.398 0.302 0.248 0.220
29 0.549 0.649 1.067 0.913 0.630 0.466 0.371 0.322 0.267
30 0.715 0.548 0.948 0.923 0.594 0.440 0.311 0.259 0.256
31 0.526 0.648 0.661 0.697 0.462 0.401 0.262 0.226 0.155
32 0.786 0.864 0.803 0.707 0.538 0.389 0.287 0.237 0.152
33 0.376 0.430 0.558 0.539 0.437 0.334 0.274 0.274 0.261
34 0.267 0.298 0.377 0.467 0.355 0.294 0.224 0.226 0.203
35 0.751 0.952 0.751 0.613 0.447 0.366 0.346 0.238 0.150
36 0.527 0.565 0.727 0.586 0.414 0.327 0.262 0.213 0.172

ORDEN PT WEIBUL % ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
1 2.703 1.451 1.295 1.596 1.233 0.853 0.686 0.523 0.414
2 5.405 0.888 1.211 1.463 1.163 0.785 0.623 0.470 0.401
3 8.108 0.866 1.054 1.067 1.122 0.743 0.592 0.438 0.388
4 10.811 0.840 0.979 1.036 0.958 0.653 0.537 0.399 0.340
 5 13.514 0.786 0.952 1.027 0.923 0.630 0.466 0.371 0.322
6 16.216 0.779 0.874 0.948 0.913 0.625 0.440 0.346 0.274
7 18.919 0.751 0.869 0.905 0.862 0.594 0.435 0.327 0.262
8 21.622 0.749 0.864 0.900 0.814 0.570 0.427 0.323 0.259
9 24.324 0.715 0.842 0.867 0.707 0.538 0.420 0.316 0.253
10 27.027 0.695 0.801 0.851 0.701 0.492 0.401 0.311 0.253
11 29.730 0.690 0.719 0.831 0.697 0.470 0.398 0.302 0.249
12 32.432 0.598 0.695 0.803 0.692 0.467 0.389 0.287 0.248
13 35.135 0.582 0.690 0.751 0.671 0.466 0.388 0.287 0.240
14 37.838 0.579 0.667 0.730 0.667 0.462 0.366 0.284 0.238
15 40.541 0.549 0.666 0.727 0.622 0.447 0.352 0.274 0.237
16 43.243 0.538 0.649 0.671 0.613 0.444 0.334 0.262 0.226
17 45.946 0.527 0.648 0.661 0.595 0.437 0.330 0.262 0.226
18 48.649 0.526 0.639 0.640 0.586 0.425 0.327 0.257 0.221
19 51.351 0.516 0.588 0.618 0.545 0.414 0.307 0.253 0.217
20 54.054 0.455 0.565 0.570 0.539 0.392 0.304 0.253 0.217
21 56.757 0.427 0.548 0.558 0.523 0.365 0.303 0.239 0.216
22 59.459 0.420 0.547 0.544 0.517 0.365 0.299 0.237 0.213
23 62.162 0.409 0.430 0.532 0.516 0.357 0.297 0.235 0.201
24 64.865 0.396 0.420 0.473 0.493 0.355 0.294 0.232 0.198
25 67.568 0.376 0.415 0.472 0.493 0.349 0.275 0.224 0.197
26 70.270 0.348 0.413 0.469 0.467 0.328 0.252 0.221 0.195
27 72.973 0.348 0.405 0.435 0.432 0.281 0.237 0.217 0.190
28 75.676 0.316 0.376 0.411 0.409 0.273 0.234 0.203 0.181
29 78.378 0.316 0.353 0.399 0.400 0.259 0.226 0.202 0.170
30 81.081 0.308 0.343 0.377 0.319 0.257 0.209 0.197 0.164
31 83.784 0.307 0.301 0.319 0.294 0.240 0.190 0.194 0.157
32 86.486 0.305 0.298 0.252 0.286 0.238 0.188 0.183 0.150
33 89.189 0.286 0.255 0.238 0.280 0.219 0.183 0.169 0.136
34 91.892 0.267 0.247 0.208 0.207 0.191 0.177 0.161 0.127
35 94.595 0.234 0.194 0.175 0.134 0.133 0.098 0.125 0.089
36 97.297 0.109 0.174 0.172 0.127 0.107 0.075 0.082 0.088
PROMEDIO 0.535 0.611 0.658 0.598 0.423 0.335 0.268 0.227
P50 % 0.520
P75% 0.318 0.380 0.415 0.412 0.275 0.235 0.208 0.185
P85% 0.306
QECO 0.0318 0.038 0.0415 0.0412 0.0275 0.0235 0.0208 0.0185
QDIS 0.286 0.342 0.374 0.371 0.248 0.212 0.187 0.167
0.40108 0.457976 0.493655 0.44839 0.317091 0.251181 0.201367 0.169875

0.700

0.600 Row 78
Row 80
0.500
Row 84
0.400

0.300
0.600 Row 78
Row 80
0.500
Row 84
0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
OCT NOV DIC PROM
0.135 0.227 0.217 0.191
0.068 0.071 0.089 0.279
0.428 0.535 0.575 0.215
0.491 0.394 0.449 0.514
0.515 0.448 0.441 0.437
0.334 0.331 0.419 0.499
0.258 0.446 0.519 0.506
0.160 0.120 0.120 0.225
0.283 0.348 0.322 0.370
0.252 0.297 0.307 0.399
0.289 0.345 0.300 0.385
0.300 0.266 0.169 0.340
0.234 0.282 0.298 0.301
0.195 0.195 0.232 0.317
0.176 0.162 0.128 0.170
0.442 0.462 0.471 0.521
0.358 0.326 0.287 0.612
0.212 0.181 0.290 0.242
0.311 0.389 0.243 0.330
0.227 0.364 0.496 0.356
0.413 0.303 0.274 0.665
0.182 0.251 0.269 0.461
0.153 0.194 0.366 0.386
0.309 0.418 0.408 0.795
0.310 0.453 0.419 0.338
0.145 0.244 0.312 0.295
0.295 0.492 0.528 0.275
0.418 0.338 0.323 0.484
0.204 0.294 0.392 0.510
0.441 0.514 0.375 0.527
0.340 0.335 0.196 0.409
0.392 0.447 0.389 0.499
0.185 0.193 0.246 0.342
0.178 0.143 0.363 0.283
0.274 0.372 0.358 0.468
0.162 0.372 0.276 0.383

SEP OCT NOV DIC PROM

0.356 0.515 0.535 0.575
0.329 0.491 0.514 0.528
0.321 0.442 0.492 0.519
0.267 0.441 0.462 0.496
 0.261 0.428 0.453 0.471
0.261 0.418 0.448 0.449
0.258 0.413 0.447 0.441
0.256 0.392 0.446 0.419
0.248 0.358 0.418 0.419
0.225 0.340 0.394 0.408
0.222 0.334 0.389 0.392
0.220 0.311 0.372 0.389
0.218 0.310 0.372 0.375
0.215 0.309 0.364 0.366
0.208 0.300 0.348 0.363 1.000
0.203 0.295 0.345 0.358
0.900
0.191 0.289 0.338 0.323
f(x) = − 4.757895E-11 x⁶ + 1.2755916E-08 x⁵ − 1.2980046E-06 x⁴ + 6.
0.183 0.283 0.335 0.322 0.800 + 0.8778312363
0.179 0.274 0.331 0.312 R² = 0.993166543064159
0.700
0.179 0.258 0.326 0.307
CAUDALES M3/s

0.172 0.252 0.303 0.300 0.600

0.172 0.234 0.297 0.298 0.500
0.167 0.227 0.294 0.290
0.400
0.165 0.212 0.282 0.287
0.155 0.204 0.266 0.276 0.300
0.152 0.195 0.251 0.274 0.200
0.150 0.185 0.244 0.269
0.138 0.182 0.227 0.246 0.100
0.131 0.178 0.195 0.243 0.000
0.117 0.176 0.194 0.232 0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.00
0.116 0.162 0.193 0.217 probabilidades
0.113 0.160 0.181 0.196
0.109 0.153 0.162 0.169
0.101 0.145 0.143 0.128
0.094 0.135 0.120 0.120
0.062 0.068 0.071 0.089
0.192 0.280 0.321 0.330

0.140 0.183 0.230 0.250

0.014 0.0183 0.023 0.025

0.126 0.165 0.207 0.225
0.144117 0.209792 0.240606 0.247234

Row 78
Row 80
Row 84
 Row 78
Row 80
Row 84

9 10 11 12
16E-08 x⁵ − 1.2980046E-06 x⁴ + 6.259673E-05 x³ − 0.0014162137 x² + 0.0036589676 x

Column C
Polynomial (Column C)

50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000

babilidades
Ca 0.25 ad
AR 40.17 km2
I 15% %
LA 202.5 mm/año
AL 0.072 km2
LL 500 mm/año
AN 0 km2
LN 0 mm/año

R 51.5211912 mm/año
 GENERADOS
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
1978 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.008 0.008
1979 0.015 0.015 0.024 0.020 0.013 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.003 0.003
1980 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.015 0.019 0.021
1981 0.025 0.038 0.033 0.025 0.018 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.018 0.014 0.016
1982 0.021 0.023 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.019 0.016 0.016
1983 0.030 0.025 0.031 0.031 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.012 0.012 0.015
1984 0.013 0.035 0.032 0.029 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.016 0.019
1985 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.004
1986 0.015 0.012 0.015 0.022 0.017 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.013 0.012
1987 0.025 0.025 0.019 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.011
1988 0.028 0.026 0.017 0.019 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.005 0.006 0.010 0.012 0.011
1989 0.019 0.030 0.020 0.018 0.010 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.011 0.010 0.006
1990 0.021 0.020 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.002 0.008 0.010 0.011
1991 0.013 0.015 0.022 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.008
1992 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.005
1993 0.011 0.015 0.037 0.035 0.023 0.019 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.016 0.017 0.017
1994 0.031 0.031 0.037 0.041 0.027 0.021 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.010
1995 0.011 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.008 0.007 0.010
1996 0.016 0.021 0.023 0.016 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.011 0.014 0.009
1997 0.014 0.024 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.013 0.018
1998 0.032 0.032 0.053 0.042 0.028 0.022 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.015 0.011 0.010
1999 0.022 0.044 0.030 0.025 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.010
2000 0.011 0.024 0.026 0.024 0.016 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.013
2001 0.052 0.047 0.058 0.045 0.031 0.025 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.015
2002 0.011 0.009 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.011 0.016 0.015
2003 0.019 0.014 0.017 0.015 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.009 0.011
2004 0.010 0.011 0.009 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.011 0.018 0.019
2005 0.027 0.029 0.031 0.024 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.015 0.012 0.012
2006 0.020 0.023 0.039 0.033 0.023 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.007 0.011 0.014
2007 0.026 0.020 0.034 0.033 0.021 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.016 0.019 0.014
2008 0.019 0.023 0.024 0.025 0.017 0.014 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.012 0.012 0.007
2009 0.028 0.031 0.029 0.026 0.019 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.005 0.014 0.016 0.014
2010 0.014 0.016 0.020 0.019 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.009
2011 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.013
2012 0.027 0.034 0.027 0.022 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.005 0.010 0.013 0.013
2013 0.019 0.020 0.026 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.013 0.010
1978 0.269 0.209 0.185 0.243 0.221 0.202 0.137 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.259 0.164
1979 0.290 0.426 1.460 0.664 0.245 0.217 0.137 0.111 0.146 0.126 0.100 0.137
1980 0.187 0.233 0.426 0.356 0.173 0.141 0.106 0.100 0.095 0.227 0.162 0.236
1981 0.147 0.294 0.402 0.243 0.185 0.171 0.137 0.146 0.136 0.176 0.190 0.191
1982 0.167 0.354 0.438 0.356 0.257 0.187 0.126 0.146 0.146 0.176 0.183 0.227
1983 0.535 0.498 0.811 1.424 0.895 0.475 0.126 0.134 0.136 0.217 0.217 0.577
 1984 0.412 1.460 1.508 1.877 0.847 0.278 0.116 0.204 0.217 0.328 0.321 0.613
1985 0.494 0.606 0.462 0.777 0.606 0.323 0.147 0.157 0.196 0.267 0.183 0.308
1986 0.412 0.330 0.438 1.181 0.606 0.475 0.260 0.296 0.267 0.257 0.210 0.263
1987 0.381 0.486 0.281 0.340 0.221 0.187 0.126 0.157 0.146 0.196 0.183 0.236
1988 0.351 0.727 0.245 0.583 0.173 0.126 0.106 0.111 0.105 0.126 0.197 0.173
1989 0.361 0.678 1.111 0.761 0.330 0.217 0.126 0.134 0.146 0.237 0.204 0.137
1990 0.208 0.318 0.269 0.275 0.173 0.187 0.126 0.100 0.095 0.196 0.217 0.245
1991 0.218 0.233 0.739 0.647 0.414 0.338 0.198 0.123 0.116 0.146 0.190 0.146
1992 0.239 0.366 0.245 0.194 0.137 0.141 0.116 0.100 0.095 0.176 0.127 0.155
1993 0.218 0.666 1.737 1.780 0.474 0.308 0.147 0.123 0.126 0.227 0.190 0.622
1994 0.667 1.568 1.292 1.197 0.366 0.323 0.167 0.273 0.277 0.227 0.148 0.254
1995 0.422 0.630 0.474 0.372 0.257 0.187 0.116 0.111 0.105 0.176 0.190 0.263
1996 0.402 1.123 0.931 0.744 0.426 0.232 0.116 0.181 0.247 0.298 0.148 0.128
1997 0.187 0.462 0.318 0.130 0.185 0.156 0.126 0.157 0.156 0.156 0.127 0.892
1998 0.443 0.594 0.835 1.019 0.474 0.323 0.137 0.134 0.146 0.166 0.148 0.137
1999 0.259 1.099 0.630 0.405 0.378 0.278 0.126 0.319 0.378 0.399 0.273 0.308
2000 0.616 1.749 0.570 0.939 0.366 0.308 0.137 0.134 0.146 0.217 0.217 0.263
2001 0.422 0.594 0.378 0.275 0.294 0.202 0.137 0.146 0.136 0.166 0.197 0.236
2002 0.392 0.245 0.245 0.356 0.330 0.217 0.126 0.169 0.166 0.257 0.238 0.200
2003 0.565 0.690 0.775 0.987 0.654 0.733 0.413 0.469 0.409 0.399 0.245 0.281
2004 0.320 0.366 0.582 0.631 0.402 0.262 0.137 0.123 0.116 0.318 0.370 0.523
2005 0.718 0.775 1.063 1.068 0.378 0.247 0.126 0.111 0.095 0.095 0.134 0.200
2006 0.227 0.312 1.115 0.850 0.513 0.498 0.325 0.253 0.271 0.256 0.260 0.437
2007 0.377 0.298 0.776 0.891 0.421 0.318 0.284 0.270 0.251 0.283 0.298 0.266
2008 0.440 0.675 0.699 0.842 0.411 0.258 0.199 0.134 0.124 0.182 0.210 0.106
2009 0.553 0.866 0.946 0.890 0.430 0.266 0.196 0.153 0.150 0.418 0.281 0.613
2010 0.328 0.413 0.537 0.952 0.472 0.219 0.158 0.132 0.119 0.131 0.115 0.150
2011 0.201 0.325 0.338 0.927 0.310 0.186 0.166 0.141 0.167 0.151 0.122 0.271
2012 0.801 1.501 0.802 0.670 0.437 0.258 0.199 0.179 0.175 0.230 0.209 0.291
2013 0.440 0.675 0.699 0.842 0.411 0.258 0.199 0.179 0.175 0.230 0.209 0.291

V N S S N S S S S S N N S
M N S S S S N N N S N N S

SUPUESTOS

SUPUESTO DE NORMALIDAD K-S

Ho los datos provienen de una distribucion normal
H1 los datos NO provienen de una distribucion normal

SUPUESTO DE IGUALDAD DE VARIANZA - LEVENE

〖𝑆 1 〗 ^2
Ho No hay diferencia significativa entre varianzas / 〖𝑆 1 〗 ^2
H1 hay diferencia signficativa entre varianzas 〖𝑆 2 〗 ^2 /
=1 〖𝑆 2 〗 ^2
≠1
 INTERSEC LONG(Km)
3 15 7002.09
4 36 8094.66
5 38 9140.45
6 32 6636.36
7 19 1264.54
8 3 1887.74
9 5 2838.84
10 12 3838.18
11 17 4786.2
12 12 5568.12
13 18 6466.85
14 33 5848.52

15 32 4165.67

16 25 2709

17 14 1560.36

18 6 40545.7 39669.48

Pendiente (%) Tipo de terreno

2 Plano
5 Suave
10 Accidentado medio
15 Accidentado
25 Fuertemente accidentado
50 Escarpado
>50 Muy escarpado

Agricultura
Industria
Uso doméstico
ZONA
Sierra
Costa
Selva
 PP E. M. ALT CHETILLA
PP E. M. CHAMIS

PP MEDIA
MES
SEP 38.1 24 35.9 Pendiente (%)
OCT 112.4 79.4 107.3 2
NOV 98.5 86 96.6 5
DIC 95.7 112.8 98.4 10
ENE 168.2 174.6 169.2 15
FEB 121.8 196.7 133.4 25
MAR 164.7 196.4 169.6 50
ABR 107 61.6 100 >50
MAY 42 32.2 40.4
JUN 22.4 12.8 20.9
JUL 6.1 4.2 5.8
AGO 12.3 13.4 12.5
Tiempo de
concentración

Kiprich

Temez

Pasini

Pizarro

70%
22%
8%
MODULO(lppd)
50 Coef. Curva I Curva II Curva III
60 a0 -0.018 -0.021 -0.028
70 a1 -0.0185 0.1358 0.2756
a2 0.001105 -0.002296 -0.004103
a3 -1204 E-8 +4349 E-8 +5534 E-8
a4 +144 E-9 -89.0 E-9 +124 E-9
a5 -285 E-12 -879 E-13 -142 E-11
Tipo de terreno
Plano
Suave
Accidentado medio
Accidentado
Fuertemente
accidentado
Escarpado
Muy escarpado

Fórmula
Región Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Total
Cusco 0 5 35 40 20 0 100
Huancavelica 10 0 35 30 20 5 100
Junín 10 0 25 30 30 5 100
Cajamarca 25 -5 0 20 25 35 100