proyeccion de tasa

AÑO TPD
crecimeinto crecimiento
1997 4,712 380 Factor proyeccion C
1998 5,092 5,092 -1076 8.06% 0.430
1999 4,016 4,016 -107 -21.13%
2000 3,909 3,909 -240 -2.66%
2001 3669 3,669 -189 -6.14%
2002 3480 3,480 205 -5.15%
2003 3,685 3,685 77 5.89%
2004 3,762 3,762 1055 2.09%
2005 4,817 4,817 478 28.04%
2006 5,295 5,295 940 9.92%
2007 6,235 6,235 -164 17.75%
2008 6,071 6,071 -106 -2.63%
2009 5,965 5,965 -371 -1.75%
2010 5,594 5,594 800 -6.22%
2011 6,394 6,394 37 14.30%
2012 6,431 6,431 912 0.58%
2013 7,343 7,343 -201 14.18%
2014 7,142 7,142 927 -2.74%
2015 8,069 8,069 -613 12.98%
2016 7456 7,456 211 -7.59%
2017 7667 7,667 211 2.82%
2018 7877 7,877 211 2.75%
2019 8088 8,088 211 2.67%
2020 8298 8,298 211 2.60%
2021 8509 8,509 211 2.54%
2022 8719 8,719 211 2.47%
2023 8930 8,930 211 2.41% 1.33%
2024 9140 9,140 211 2.36%
2025 9351 9,351 211 2.30%
2026 9561 9,561 211 2.25%
2027 9772 9,772 211 2.20%
2028 9982 9,982 211 2.15%
2029 10193 10,193 211 2.11%
2030 10403 10,403 211 2.07%
2031 10614 10,614 211 2.02%
2032 10824 10,824 211 1.98%
2033 11035 11,035 211 1.94%
2034 11245 11,245 211 1.91%
2035 11456 11,456 211 1.87%
2036 11666 11,666 211 1.84%
2037 11877 11,877 211 1.80%
2038 12087 12,087 0 1.77%

2038 1818.864
 y = 210.51x - 416932
R² = 0.7257 PROYECCION LINEAL TPD TOTAL 5000
9,000
4500
8,000
4000
7,000 3500
6,000 3000
5,000 2500

4,000 2000

3,000 1500
1000
2,000
1,000
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

y = 8E-28e0.0353x PROYECCION Exponencial TOTAL

R² = 0.8334
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

y = 422079ln(x) - 3E+06 PROYECCION LOGARITMICA TOTAL

R² = 0.725
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

y = 10.267x
y = 17.001x2 - 67996x + 7E+07
R² = 0.8383 PROYECCION POLINOMICA TOTAL
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
 AUTOMOVILES

Factor proyeccion C 2733 -34 Factor proyeccion C

17.821 2699 2699 -329 -1% 0.463 18.022
2369 2369 -1040 -12%
1329 1329 652 -44%
1981 1981 -450 49%
1531 1531 348 -23%
1879 1879 -111 23%
1768 1768 833 -6%
2601 2601 46 47%
2648 2648 906 2%
3554 3554 89 34%
3643 3643 -64 2%
3579 3579 -502 -2%
3077 3077 -8 -14%
3069 3069 468 0%
3537 3537 428 15%
3965 3965 -109 12%
3857 3857 662 -3%
4519 4519 -407 17%
4112 4112 125 -9%
4237 4237 125 3%
4362 4362 125 3%
4487 4487 125 3%
4611 4611 125 3%
4736 4736 125 3%
%CARROS 4861 4861 125 3% %BUSES
56% 4986 4986 125 3% 1% 8%
5111 5111 125 3%
5236 5236 125 2%
5361 5361 125 2%
5485 5485 125 2%
5610 5610 125 2%
5735 5735 125 2%
5860 5860 125 2%
5985 5985 125 2%
6110 6110 125 2%
6235 6235 125 2%
6360 6360 125 2%
6484 6484 125 2%
6609 6609 125 2%
6734 6734 125 2%
6859 6859 0 2%
 y = 124.87x - 247626
R² = 0.6106 PROYECCION LINEAL AUTOMOVILES y = 20.129x
5000
R² = 0.5828
4500 800
4000 700
3500
600
3000
500
2500
2000 400
1500 300
1000
200
500
100
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0
1996 1998

y = 3E-36e0.0448x
PROYECCION
R² = 0.5343 Exponencial AUTOS
5000 800
4500 700
4000
600
3500
3000 500

2500 400
2000 300
1500
200
1000
500 100

0 0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998

y = 250362ln(x) - 2E+06
R² = 0.61
PROYECCION LOGARITMICA AUTOS
5000 800
4500 700
4000
600
3500
3000 500

2500 400
2000 300
1500
200
1000
500 100

0 0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998
 0 0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998

y = 10.267x2 - 41066x + 4E+07

R² = 0.7088 y=
POYECCION POLINOMICA AUTOS
5000 800
4500
700
4000
600
3500
3000 500

2500 400
2000
300
1500
200
1000
500 100

0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1996 1998
 BUSES CAMIONES

236 70 Factor proyeccion C 1743

306 306 -24 30% 0.880 20.474 2088
281 281 71 -8% 1365
352 352 -95 25% 2228
257 257 56 -27% 1431
313 313 -129 22% 1636
184 184 267 -41% 1621
451 451 78 145% 1542
530 530 53 17% 1686
582 582 103 10% 2065
686 686 -261 18% 1995
425 425 112 -38% 2003
537 537 -33 26% 1849
503 503 136 -6% 2014
639 639 -125 27% 2685
514 514 73 -20% 2379
587 587 -88 14% 2790
500 500 65 -15% 2785
565 565 81 13% 2986
646 646 20 14% 2703
666 666 20 3% 2769
686 686 20 3% 2834
706 706 20 3% 2900
727 727 20 3% 2965
747 747 20 3% 3031
767 767 20 3% %CAMIONES 3096
787 787 20 3% 0.04299045 36% 3162
807 807 20 3% 3227
827 827 20 2% 3293
847 847 20 2% 3358
867 867 20 2% 3424
888 888 20 2% 3489
908 908 20 2% 3555
928 928 20 2% 3620
948 948 20 2% 3686
968 968 20 2% 3751
988 988 20 2% 3817
1008 1008 20 2% 3882
1029 1029 20 2% 3948
1049 1049 20 2% 4014
1069 1069 20 2% 4079
1089 1089 0 2% 4145
y = 20.129x - 39934 PROYECCION BUSES y = 65.514x
R² = 0.5828
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996

0.051x
y = 2E-42ePROYECCION Exponencial BUSES
R² = 0.5733
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998

y = 40393ln(x)PROYECCION y = 131325ln(x)
- 306697 LOGARITICA BUSES
R² = 0.5832
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998
 0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998

y = 7.9622x
y = -1.2285x2 + 4948.8x - 5E+06
PROYECCION POLINOMICA BUSES
R² = 0.6344
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1996 1998
 CAMIONES

344 Factor proyeccion C

2088 -722 20% 0.360 17.384
1365 863 -35%
2228 -797 63%
1431 205 -36%
1636 -14 14%
1621 -79 -1%
1542 144 -5%
1686 379 9%
2065 -70 22%
1995 8 -3%
2003 -154 0%
1849 165 -8%
2014 672 9%
2685 -306 33%
2379 411 -11%
2790 -5 17%
2785 200 0%
2986 -282 7%
2703 66 -9%
2769 66 2.4%
2834 66 2.4%
2900 66 2.3%
2965 66 2.3%
3031 66 2.2%
3096 66 2.2%
3162 66 2.1%
3227 66 2.1%
3293 66 2.0%
3358 66 2.0%
3424 66 2.0%
3489 66 1.9%
3555 66 1.9%
3620 66 1.8%
3686 66 1.8%
3751 66 1.8%
3817 66 1.7%
3882 66 1.7%
3948 66 1.7%
4014 66 1.7%
4079 66 1.6%
4145 0 1.6%
y = 65.514x - 129373
R² = 0.5759
PROYECCION CAMIONES

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

y = 2E-24e0.0309x
PROYECCION
R² = 0.5571
Exponencial CAMIONES

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

y = 131325ln(x) - 996533
R² = 0.5751 PROYECCION LOGARITIMICA CAMIONES

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

y = 7.9622x2 - 31879x + 3E+07

PROYECCION
R² = 0.7784 POLINOMICA CAMIONES

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016