TENDENCIA CON VARIACIÓN TEMPORADA

TRIMESTRE DEMANDA
1 2350
2 4870
2019
3 3850
4 1980
5 1890
6 4980
2020
7 3840
8 2870
9 2540
10 5840
2021
11 4800
12 2450
IT1 = 2350 + 1890 + 2540
3262.5 3395 3907.5
=
3

IT2 = 4870 + 4980 + 5840

3262.5 3395 3907.5
=
3

IT3 = 3850 + 3840 + 4800

3262.5 3395 3907.5
=
3

IT4 = 1980 + 2870 + 2450

3262.5 3395 3907.5
=
3
0.6

1.5

1.2

0.7
 DEMANDA ÍNDICE DE
PERIODO
REAL TEMPORADA

1T 1 2019 2350 0.6

2T 2 2019 4870 1.5
2019
3T 3 2019 3850 1.2
4T 4 2019 1980 0.7
5T 1 2020 1890 0.6
6T 2 2020 4980 1.5
2020
7T 3 2020 3840 1.2
8T 4 2020 2870 0.7
9T 1 2021 2540 0.6
10T 2 2021 5840 1.5
2021
11T 3 2021 4800 1.2
12T 4 2021 2450 0.7
 DEMANDA
DESTEMPORALIZADA

3658
3280
3263
2857
2942
3354
3255
4141
3954
3933
4068
3535
3. CALCULAR LA LÍNEA DE TENDENCIA

Yt=3079+67.8 (X)
 DEMANDA ÍNDICE DE
PERIODO
REAL TEMPORADA

1T 1 2022 (13) 3961 0.6

2T 2 2022 (14) 4029 1.5
2019
3T 3 2022 (15) 4097 1.2
4T 4 2022 (16) 4165 0.7
 DEMANDA
DESTEMPORALIZADA

2544
5982
4834
2886
 DEMANDA ÍNDICE DE DEMANDA
PERIODO
REAL TEMPORADA DESTEMPORALIZADA

1T 1 2019 2350 0.6 3658

2T 2 2019 4870 1.5 3280
2019
3T 3 2019 3850 1.2 3263
4T 4 2019 1980 0.7 2857
5T 1 2020 1890 0.6 2942
6T 2 2020 4980 1.5 3354
2020
7T 3 2020 3840 1.2 3255
8T 4 2020 2870 0.7 4141
9T 1 2021 2540 0.6 3954
10T 2 2021 5840 1.5 3933
2021
11T 3 2021 4800 1.2 4068
12T 4 2021 2450 0.7 3535
1T 1 2022 (13) 3961 0.6 2544
2T 2 2022 (14) 4029 1.5 5982
2019
3T 3 2022 (15) 4097 1.2 4834
4T 4 2022 (16) 4165 0.7 2886
 TENDENCIA CON VARIACIÓN TEMPORADA
7000
2350
4870
6000
3850
1980
1890 5000

4980
DEMANDA

3840 4000
2870
2540
3000
5840
4800
2450 2000

2544
5982 1000
4834
2886
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

PERIODO
TEMPORADA

Column H

1 12 13 14 15 16