Pobl.

otto

METODLOGÍA DE DETERMINACIÓN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO-DE LA POBLACIÓN Población demandante mensualizada

DEL ÁMBITO DE RESPONSABILIDAD DE EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A.
FECHA DE LOS CENSOS (DÍA.MES.AÑO)
t.1 t.2 t.3 21.10.07 ene feb mar abr

Pob Tasas
LOCALIDAD 04.06.1972 12.07.1981 9.104 11.07.1993 12.000 21.10.2007 14.027 % Pob total 0.085 0.077 0.085 0.082
demandante ajustadas

sede central 29,589 47,858 0.05423 82,380 0.046 120,967 0.0278 117,648 0.97 4.16 0.0416 114,072 114,447 114,864 115,269

Tarapoto 22,051 36,256 0.05614 54,581 0.035 68,295 0.0161 68,295 1.00 3.30 0.0330 66,715 66,882 67,066 67,246

Banda De Shilcayo 4,006 6,682 0.05781 13,558 0.061 29,111 0.0560 26,479 0.91 5.86 0.0586 25,415 25,526 25,650 25,770

Morales 3,532 4,920 0.03708 14,241 0.093 23,561 0.0365 22,874 0.97 5.94 0.0594 21,942 22,039 22,148 22,253

Saposoa 7,789 8,314 0.00719 12,314 0.033 11,982 -0.0019 7,429 0.62 1.45 0.0145 7,352 7,360 7,369 7,378

Lamas 12,173 11,206 -0.00905 13,651 0.017 13,173 -0.0025 10,767 0.82 0.37 0.0037 10,738 10,741 10,745 10,748

San josé de sisa 8,312 9,766 0.01786 13,143 0.025 13,220 0.0004 12,162 0.92 1.45 0.0145 12,037 12,050 12,065 12,079

Bellavista 4,822 6,451 0.03249 13,583 0.064 14,238 0.0034 13,655 0.96 3.47 0.0347 13,324 13,359 13,397 13,435

TOTAL 62,685 83,595 135,071 173,580 161,662 157,523 157,957 158,440 158,909

SEDE CENTRAL
La Banda
Fecha de los Censos Sede central Tarapoto Morales Shilcayo
04.06.1972 29,589 22,051 3,532 4,006
12.07.1981 47,858 36,256 4,920 6,682 SEDE CENTRAL
11.07.1993 82,380 54,581 14,241 13,558
21.10.2007 120,967 68,295 23,561 29,111
FÓRMULA
(1+r*)=((1+ri)^ti))^1/k SAPOSOA
(1+r*)=((1+r1)^t1)*(1+r2)^t2)*(1+r3)^t3)* ……)^1/k LAMAS
Períodos de cáculo Cálculo años Fórmula 1+ri=(10^((LOG(Pobl2/Pobl1))/ti)) SISA
entre censos entre censos Sede Central Tarapoto Morales La Banda de Shilcayo BELLA
De A ti (años) 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti
04.06.1972-12.07.1981 1,972 1,981 9.104110 1.054 1.62 1.056 1.644 1.037 1.393 1.058 1.67
12.07.1981-11.07.1993 1,981 1,993 11.997260 1.046 1.72 1.035 1.505 1.093 2.895 1.061 2.03
11.07.1993-21.10.2007 1,993 2,007 14.027397 1.028 1.47 1.016 1.251 1.037 1.654 1.056 2.15
04.06.1972-11.07.1993 1,972 1,993 21.101370 1.050 2.78 1.044 2.475 1.068 4.032 1.059 3.38
12.07.1981-21.10.2007 1,981 2,007 26.276712 1.036 2.53 1.024 1.884 1.061 4.789 1.058 4.36
DENSIDAD HABITANTE
04.06.1972-21.10.2007 1,972 2,007 35.380822 1.041 4.09 1.032 3.097 1.055 6.671 1.058 7.27 MA
POBL DEMAND
Total k 117.9 117.6 44.7243 859.200 778.624
1+r* 1.042 1.033 1.059 1.059
SEDE 21.07.2007
Tasas de Crecimiento r* 0.0416 r* 0.0330 r* 0.0594 r* 0.0586 CENTRAL
Tarapoto
Banda De
SUCURSALES San José de Shilcayo
Morales
Fecha de los Censos Saposoa Lamas Sisa Bellavista SAPOSOA
04.06.1972 7,789 12,173 8,312 4,822 LAMAS
SAN JOSÉ
12.07.1981 8,314 11,206 9,766 6,451
11.07.1993 12,314 13,651 13,143 13,583
BELLAVIST
DE SISA
21.10.2007 11,982 13,173 13,220 14,238 A
TOTAL
FÓRMULA

Page 1
 Pobl.otto

(1+r*)=((1+ri)^ti))^1/k
(1+r*)=((1+r1)^t1)*(1+r2)^t2)*(1+r3)^t3)* ……)^1/k
Períodos de cálculo Cálculo años Fórmula 1+ri=(10^((LOG(Pobl2/Pobl1))/ti))
entre censos entre censos Saposoa Lamas San Josçe de Sisa Bellavista
De A ti (años) 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti 1+ri (1+ri)^ti
04.06.1972-12.07.1981 1,972 1,981 9.104110 1.007 1.07 0.991 0.921 1.018 1.175 1.032 1.34
12.07.1981-11.07.1993 1,981 1,993 11.997260 1.033 1.48 1.017 1.218 1.025 1.346 1.064 2.11
11.07.1993-21.10.2007 1,993 2,007 14.027397 0.998 0.97 0.997 0.965 1.000 1.006 1.003 1.05
04.06.1972-11.07.1993 1,972 1,993 21.101370 1.022 1.58 1.005 1.121 1.022 1.581 1.050 2.82
12.07.1981-21.10.2007 1,981 2,007 26.276712 1.014 1.44 1.006 1.176 1.012 1.354 1.031 2.21
04.06.1972-21.10.2007 1,972 2,007 35.380822 1.012 1.54 1.002 1.082 1.013 1.590 1.031 2.95
Total k 117.9 5.4 1.5437 5.414 54.204
1+r* 1.015 1.004 1.015 1.035
Tasas de Crecimiento r* 0.0145 r* 0.0037 r* 0.0145 r* 0.0347

TOTAL EMPRESA
Fecha de los Censos Total Pobl.
04.06.1972 62,685
12.07.1981 83,595
11.07.1993 135,071
21.10.2007 173,580
FÓRMULA
(1+r*)=((1+ri)^ti))^1/k
(1+r*)=((1+r1)^t1)*(1+r2)^t2)*(1+r3)^t3)* ……)^1/k
Períodos de cálculo Cálculo años Fórmula 1+ri=(10^((LOG(Pobl2/Pobl1))/ti))
entre censos entre censos Total Pobl.
De A ti (años) 1+ri (1+ri)^ti
12.07.1981-11.07.1993 1,972 1,981 9.104110 1.032 1.33
11.07.1993-21.10.2007 1,981 1,993 11.997260 1.041 1.62
04.06.1972-11.07.1993 1,993 2,007 14.027397 1.018 1.29
12.07.1981-21.10.2007 1,972 1,993 21.101370 1.037 2.15
04.06.1972-21.10.2007 1,981 2,007 26.276712 1.028 2.08
0 1,972 2,007 35.380822 1.029 2.77
Total k 117.9 34.3
1+r* 1.0307
Tasas de Crecimiento r* 0.0307

3.07

Page 2
 Pobl.otto

2007 2008
may jun jul ago sep 31.oct nov dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov

0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.082 0.027 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.077 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082

115,689 116,097 116,520 116,945 117,358 117,786 118,202 118,634 119,067 119,460 119,897 120,321 120,761 121,188 121,632 122,077 122,509 122,958 123,394

67,431 67,612 67,798 67,986 68,167 68,356 68,539 68,728 68,918 69,090 69,281 69,466 69,658 69,844 70,037 70,230 70,418 70,613 70,801

25,895 26,017 26,143 26,269 26,392 26,520 26,645 26,774 26,903 27,021 27,152 27,279 27,411 27,540 27,673 27,807 27,938 28,073 28,205

22,362 22,469 22,579 22,690 22,798 22,910 23,019 23,132 23,246 23,349 23,464 23,576 23,692 23,804 23,921 24,039 24,153 24,272 24,388

7,387 7,396 7,405 7,414 7,423 7,432 7,441 7,450 7,459 7,467 7,476 7,485 7,494 7,503 7,512 7,521 7,530 7,540 7,548

10,751 10,755 10,758 10,761 10,765 10,768 10,771 10,775 10,778 10,781 10,785 10,788 10,791 10,795 10,798 10,801 10,805 10,808 10,811

12,094 12,108 12,123 12,138 12,152 12,167 12,182 12,197 12,212 12,225 12,240 12,255 12,270 12,284 12,299 12,314 12,329 12,344 12,359

13,474 13,512 13,551 13,590 13,629 13,668 13,707 13,746 13,786 13,822 13,863 13,901 13,942 13,981 14,022 14,062 14,102 14,143 14,182

159,395 159,867 160,357 160,849 161,326 161,822 162,303 162,801 163,302 163,756 164,260 164,750 165,258 165,751 166,263 166,776 167,275 167,792 168,295

jun COBERTURA/POBL SERV

0.082 CAG PS CAL PS

121,005 0.891 107,875 0.723 87,437
69,844
27,540
23,804
7,503 0.941 7,059 0.920 6,902
10,795 0.995 10,745 0.748 8,074
12,284 0.675 8,290 0.432 5,307
13,981 0.933 13,047 0.610 8,533
165,568 147,015 116,253

NSIDAD HABITANTES POR VIVIENDA EMAPA SAN

MARTÍN S.A. Tasas
POBL DEMAND ajustada
VIV ANTES AHORA
21.07.2007
120,967 27,518 4.40 4.40 s
0.0416
68,295 15,397 4.44 0.0330 2,255
29,111 6,835 4.26 0.0586 1,705
23,561 5,286 4.46 0.0594 1,401
11,982 3,037 5.00 3.95 0.0145 174
13,173 3,349 4.78 3.93 0.0037 49
13,220 2,878 5.27 4.59 0.0145 192
14,238 3,464 5.20 4.11 0.0347 494
168,816 40,246 4.19 6,269
43,310 3.71

Page 3
 Pobl.otto

INEI

Page 4
 Pobl.otto

600

EJEMPLO DE PERIODO DE DEFICIT

f(x) = 20 x + 500 580
560
540
Y DEMAN OFERT 520
0 500 380 500
1 520 380
2 540 380
3 560 380
4 580 380
5 600 380
OFERTA -6 380 380 380
∑ 9 3300 f(x) = 380
350
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

m= 20 Ecuación obtenida por mínimos cuadrados :

b= 500 Demanda = b + m . año

Xo = -6.00 años Periodo de Déficit

Page 5
 Pobl.otto

POBLACIÓN
PMO 2008
2009 2010
dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul

0.085 0.085 0.077 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.077 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085

123,846 124,300 124,711 125,169 125,613 126,074 126,522 126,986 127,453 127,906 128,376 128,832 129,306 129,782 130,213 130,692 131,158 131,641 132,110 132,597

70,997 71,193 71,371 71,568 71,759 71,958 72,150 72,349 72,549 72,743 72,944 73,139 73,341 73,544 73,727 73,931 74,129 74,333 74,532 74,738

28,341 28,479 28,603 28,742 28,877 29,016 29,152 29,294 29,436 29,574 29,717 29,856 30,001 30,146 30,278 30,425 30,567 30,715 30,859 31,009

24,507 24,628 24,737 24,859 24,977 25,100 25,219 25,343 25,468 25,589 25,715 25,837 25,964 26,092 26,208 26,337 26,462 26,592 26,718 26,850

7,558 7,567 7,575 7,585 7,594 7,603 7,612 7,621 7,631 7,640 7,649 7,658 7,667 7,677 7,685 7,695 7,704 7,713 7,722 7,732

10,815 10,818 10,821 10,825 10,828 10,831 10,835 10,838 10,842 10,845 10,848 10,852 10,855 10,858 10,862 10,865 10,868 10,872 10,875 10,878

12,374 12,389 12,403 12,418 12,433 12,448 12,463 12,478 12,493 12,508 12,524 12,539 12,554 12,569 12,583 12,599 12,614 12,629 12,644 12,660

14,224 14,265 14,302 14,344 14,384 14,426 14,466 14,508 14,550 14,591 14,634 14,675 14,717 14,760 14,799 14,842 14,883 14,927 14,969 15,012

168,816 169,339 169,813 170,340 170,852 171,382 171,898 172,432 172,969 173,490 174,030 174,555 175,100 175,646 176,142 176,692 177,227 177,781 178,320 178,878

Page 6
 Pobl.otto

10 2011
ago sep oct nov dic

0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.077 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.082 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085

133,085 133,560 134,053 134,531 135,028 135,526 135,978 136,480 136,968 137,474 137,966 138,476 138,988 139,486 140,002 140,503 141,024 141,543 142,066 142,593

74,944 75,145 75,352 75,554 75,763 75,972 76,161 76,372 76,576 76,788 76,993 77,206 77,419 77,626 77,840 78,048 78,264 78,479 78,695 78,913

31,159 31,305 31,457 31,604 31,757 31,911 32,051 32,206 32,357 32,514 32,666 32,825 32,984 33,138 33,299 33,455 33,617 33,779 33,942 34,106

26,982 27,110 27,243 27,373 27,508 27,643 27,766 27,902 28,035 28,173 28,307 28,446 28,586 28,722 28,863 29,000 29,143 29,285 29,429 29,574

7,741 7,750 7,760 7,769 7,779 7,788 7,797 7,806 7,815 7,825 7,834 7,844 7,854 7,863 7,872 7,882 7,891 7,901 7,911 7,920

10,882 10,885 10,889 10,892 10,895 10,899 10,902 10,905 10,909 10,912 10,915 10,919 10,922 10,926 10,929 10,932 10,936 10,939 10,943 10,946

12,675 12,690 12,706 12,721 12,736 12,752 12,766 12,782 12,797 12,813 12,828 12,844 12,859 12,875 12,891 12,906 12,922 12,937 12,953 12,969

15,056 15,098 15,142 15,184 15,228 15,272 15,312 15,357 15,400 15,445 15,488 15,533 15,578 15,622 15,667 15,711 15,757 15,802 15,848 15,894

179,439 179,984 180,549 181,097 181,666 182,237 182,755 183,330 183,889 184,469 185,032 185,616 186,202 186,771 187,361 187,935 188,529 189,124 189,721 190,322

97.26 4.16 74.33

100.00 3.30 41.70
90.96 5.86 17.48
97.08 5.94 15.14
62.00 1.45 4.28
81.74 0.37 6.00
92.00 1.45 7.01
95.91 3.47 8.38

Page 7
 Pobl.otto

2012

0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.087

143,122 143,655 144,191 144,730 145,273 145,819 146,368 146,921 147,477

79,131 79,350 79,571 79,792 80,015 80,239 80,464 80,690 80,917

34,272 34,439 34,606 34,775 34,946 35,117 35,290 35,463 35,638

29,719 29,866 30,013 30,162 30,312 30,463 30,615 30,768 30,922

7,930 7,940 7,950 7,959 7,969 7,979 7,989 7,999 8,009

10,950 10,953 10,957 10,960 10,964 10,967 10,971 10,974 10,978

12,985 13,001 13,017 13,033 13,049 13,066 13,082 13,098 13,114

15,940 15,987 16,033 16,080 16,127 16,175 16,223 16,270 16,318

190,927 191,536 192,147 192,763 193,382 194,005 194,632 195,262 195,897

Page 8