PRECIPITACION MAXIMA MENSUAL (mm)

AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO ES

1974 165.60
1975 262.7
500
1976 156.2
1977 159.4 450
1978 150.7
1979 163.0 400
1980 174.6 350
1981 234.8
1982 158.4 300
1983 211.8
250
1984 359.3
1985 190.3 200
1986 295.7
1987 270.0 150
1988 286.9 100
1989 194.8
1990 149.8 50
1991 322.3
0
1992 215.0
1993 445.8 74 77 8 0 8 3 86 89 92 95
1994 207.7 19 19 1 9 19 1 9 19 19 19 19
1995 181.5
1996 168.5
1997 206.2
1998 273.3
1999 213.8
2000 291.7
2001 201.1
2002 164.9
2003 243.9
2004 184.1
2005 164.8
2006 194.1
2007 255.6
2008 187.3
2009 218.2
2010 203.1
2011 208.7
 ESTACION JACAS CHICO

0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0
98 198 19 8 1 9 8 19 9 19 9 1 9 9 2 00 200 20 0 20 1

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 666.2
Mediana 364.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 883.4
Varianza 780454
Curtosis 4.60
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.06
Rango 4424
Mínimo 0
Máximo 4424
Suma 49299.5
Cuenta 74
PRECIPITACION MAXIMAS MENSUAL (mm)
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS F(x)
1974 165.6 445.8 0.9994434240008
1975 262.7 359.3 0.9775904182289
1976 156.2 322.3 0.9292188098706
1977 159.4 295.7 0.8609074796912
1978 150.7 291.7 0.8476535794275
1979 163.0 286.9 0.8306762892169
1980 174.6 273.3 0.776281933288
1981 234.8 270.0 0.7617241668711
1982 158.4 262.7 0.7277556651562
1983 211.8 255.6 0.6925593652895
1984 359.3 243.9 0.6306273996561
1985 190.3 234.8 0.5798862058059
1986 295.7 218.2 0.4844331012962
1987 270.0 215.0 0.4659647944329
1988 286.9 213.8 0.4590558921154
1989 194.8 211.8 0.4475695059121
1990 149.8 208.7 0.4298555924765
1991 322.3 207.7 0.4241696554485
1992 215.0 206.2 0.4156706210103
1993 445.8 203.1 0.3982346615242
1994 207.7 201.1 0.3870902262763
1995 181.5 194.8 0.3526278344632
1996 168.5 194.1 0.3488664428541
1997 206.2 190.3 0.3287139044839
1998 273.3 187.3 0.3131450820457
1999 213.8 184.1 0.2968983917452
2000 291.7 181.5 0.2839891215531
2001 201.1 174.6 0.2510931921716
2002 164.9 168.5 0.2236097456702
2003 243.9 165.6 0.2114161690834
2004 184.1 164.9 0.2084921478619
2005 164.8 164.8 0.2080763859913
2006 194.1 163.0 0.2006766981228
2007 255.6 159.4 0.1863594578072
2008 187.3 158.4 0.1824975861642
2009 218.2 156.2 0.1741789939296
2010 203.1 150.7 0.1544562185963
2011 208.7 149.8 0.1513752262477
 f(x) MEDIA 220.89
2.844807E-05 DESV.EST. 68.98
0.0007727613
0.0019630196
0.0032122218 F(x)
0.0034149394
0.0036588833 1
0.0043334382 0.9
0.0044886788
0.8
0.0048128466
0.005095545 0.7
0.0054701948 0.6
0.0056667103
0.5
0.0057786428
0.0057619874 0.4
0.005752562 0.3
0.0057330308 0.2
0.0056934232
0.1
0.0056782585
0.0056533592 0
0.005593859 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0.0055498536
0.0053838271 f(x)
0.0053629274
0.0052414539 0.007
0.0051364794
0.0050163552 0.006
0.0049130356
0.0046171335 0.005
0.0043322451
0.0041942548 0.004
0.0041600665
0.0041551704 0.003
0.0040665569
0.002
0.0038870118
0.0038367055
0.001
0.0037255548
0.0034461944 0
0.00340046 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x)
1974 165.6 445.8 6.099870420952 0.9979712181002
1975 262.7 359.3 5.884157694119 0.9793586277806
1976 156.2 322.3 5.775482788821 0.9474946052481
1977 159.4 295.7 5.689345426858 0.9011989475456
1978 150.7 291.7 5.675725876874 0.891737561694
1979 163.0 286.9 5.659133722987 0.8793515166494
1980 174.6 273.3 5.610570092934 0.8374971126229
1981 234.8 270.0 5.598421958998 0.8257012921733
1982 158.4 262.7 5.571012696692 0.797146684445
1983 211.8 255.6 5.543613722503 0.7659800213477
1984 359.3 243.9 5.496758305222 0.7070338711571
1985 190.3 234.8 5.458734087954 0.6546517356869
1986 295.7 218.2 5.385412073399 0.5456893670636
1987 270.0 215.0 5.370638028128 0.5230173337363
1988 286.9 213.8 5.365040998591 0.5144046982625
1989 194.8 211.8 5.355642433167 0.4999292304052
1990 149.8 208.7 5.340897814083 0.4772273546045
1991 322.3 207.7 5.336094730882 0.4698445415863
1992 215.0 206.2 5.328846571583 0.4587238137085
1993 445.8 203.1 5.313698468586 0.435596389305
1994 207.7 201.1 5.303802296779 0.4206004740472
1995 181.5 194.8 5.271973391208 0.3732474453072
1996 168.5 194.1 5.268373490175 0.3679960554631
1997 206.2 190.3 5.248601774302 0.3396150975332
1998 273.3 187.3 5.23271160945 0.3174385567707
1999 213.8 184.1 5.215479088239 0.2941101835792
2000 291.7 181.5 5.201255653705 0.2754739248137
2001 201.1 174.6 5.162497643406 0.227832479702
2002 164.9 168.5 5.126698332887 0.1882825943343
2003 243.9 165.6 5.109575241951 0.17096382011
2004 184.1 164.9 5.105339229566 0.1668418361116
2005 164.8 164.8 5.104732617475 0.1662568449672
2006 194.1 163.0 5.093750200807 0.1558953772822
2007 255.6 159.4 5.071416766356 0.1361651428047
2008 187.3 158.4 5.06512347938 0.1309283660056
2009 218.2 156.2 5.051137237406 0.1197932106653
2010 203.1 150.7 5.015291105632 0.0943489813833
2011 208.7 149.8 5.009301071083 0.0905181460276
 f(x) MEDIA 219.36 MEDIA 5.3557
0.0248022234 DESV.EST. 63.87 DESV.EST. 0.2590
0.1920363122
0.4140544934
0.671735961 C.ASIMETRIA 0.87324807
0.7178368563
0.7753925702 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.94910762
0.9928620546 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
1.0902871897
1.1839008126 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
1.3280924656 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
1.4232577004
1.5303976666 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
1.5379468695
1.5395073058 z = 2.32634787
1.5405115976
1.5380011242 y = m+ z S
1.5361085707
1.5322588052 y = 5,3557 + 2,326 * 0.259
1.5203936946
1.5098993714 y= 5.9581
1.4620866022
1.4553905467 y= ln (x)
1.4142760026
1.376249636 x= e (y)
1.3304916514
1.2895633195 x = 386.888531
1.1663200674
1.042031286
0.9807078208
0.9654510473
0.963264641
0.9236492838
0.8433517145
0.8209094407
0.7715156681
0.6493635752
0.6297491998
 F(x)

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

f(x)

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

f(x)

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2
 f(x)

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x)
1974 165.6 445.8 5.743480015422 0.9878699128065
1975 262.7 359.3 5.418979833504 0.9560311367998
1976 156.2 322.3 5.239887115565 0.9199454127837
1977 159.4 295.7 5.08789755955 0.8746570540361
1978 150.7 291.7 5.062903882099 0.8657631495372
1979 163.0 286.9 5.032062781571 0.8542035958544
1980 174.6 273.3 4.939130740187 0.815432303594
1981 234.8 270.0 4.915216350102 0.8045016889352
1982 158.4 262.7 4.86019067149 0.7779008890747
1983 211.8 255.6 4.803601331172 0.7485076650765
1984 359.3 243.9 4.702739681522 0.6914287085256
1985 190.3 234.8 4.616592756226 0.6386278758338
1986 295.7 218.2 4.437328949754 0.5210670634605
1987 270.0 215.0 4.398746152423 0.495149341412
1988 286.9 213.8 4.383884978006 0.4851659316125
1989 194.8 211.8 4.35861477447 0.468214636785
1990 149.8 208.7 4.318138644425 0.4411955466474
1991 322.3 207.7 4.304724412154 0.4322949302228
1992 215.0 206.2 4.284259517303 0.4187834800882
1993 445.8 203.1 4.240589872361 0.3902889023266
1994 207.7 201.1 4.211368875896 0.3715361430422
1995 181.5 194.8 4.113310331112 0.3110194663485
1996 168.5 194.1 4.101796819872 0.3042006950306
1997 206.2 190.3 4.036870904988 0.2670625255229
1998 273.3 187.3 3.982459207687 0.237806726594
1999 213.8 184.1 3.920959073373 0.2069728914566
2000 291.7 181.5 3.868046158126 0.1824417211497
2001 201.1 174.6 3.712322644788 0.1213210792652
2002 164.9 168.5 3.549870391834 0.0746439110299
2003 243.9 165.6 3.464134799522 0.0563164480531
2004 184.1 164.9 3.441981157524 0.0522107363596
2005 164.8 164.8 3.43877590388 0.0516369116767
2006 194.1 163.0 3.379251853444
2007 255.6 159.4 3.248388245053
2008 187.3 158.4 3.208777232891
2009 218.2 156.2 3.115682101785
2010 203.1 150.7 2.836080153754
2011 208.7 149.8 2.781846095835
a 133.6512

Mediana 204.7
 f(x) MEDIA 219.36 MEDIA 4.4060
0.0531060354 DESV.EST. 63.87 DESV.EST. 0.5937
0.1567097746 a 133.6512
0.2505506538
0.3474149282 C.ASIMETRIA 0.209210861
0.3643059522
0.3853423444
0.4489771298 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.4651399166
0.5014739855 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
0.536969753
0.5930664037 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
0.6310084191 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
0.6710628773
0.6719503948 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.6715354571
0.6698660234 z = 2.32634787
0.6646865014
0.6622992192 y=m+z S
0.658026094
0.6464261082 y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
0.6368512404
0.5951136069 y= 5.7870
0.5893402841
0.5539030479 y= ln (x - a)
0.5210292424
0.4813230916 x-a= e (y)
0.4457466416
0.3395664339 x - a = 326.044432
0.2375794413
0.1909126624 x = 7413,477 - 25,068
0.1798130737
0.1782409466 x = 459.695626
 LN3; C.A.=0
0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

LN2; C.A.=-0,8

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
1974 165.6 445.8 4.36
1975 262.7 359.3 2.82
1976 156.2 322.3 2.16
1977 159.4 295.7 1.69
1978 150.7 291.7 1.62
1979 163.0 286.9 1.53
1980 174.6 273.3 1.29
1981 234.8 270.0 1.23
1982 158.4 262.7 1.10
1983 211.8 255.6 0.97
1984 359.3 243.9 0.76
1985 190.3 234.8 0.60
1986 295.7 218.2 0.31
1987 270.0 215.0 0.25
1988 286.9 213.8 0.23
1989 194.8 211.8 0.19
1990 149.8 208.7 0.14
1991 322.3 207.7 0.12
1992 215.0 206.2 0.09
1993 445.8 203.1 0.04
1994 207.7 201.1 0.00
1995 181.5 194.8 (0.11)
1996 168.5 194.1 (0.12)
1997 206.2 190.3 (0.19)
1998 273.3 187.3 (0.24)
1999 213.8 184.1 (0.30)
2000 291.7 181.5 (0.35)
2001 201.1 174.6 (0.47)
2002 164.9 168.5 (0.58)
2003 243.9 165.6 (0.63)
2004 184.1 164.9 (0.64)
2005 164.8 164.8 (0.64)
2006 194.1 163.0 (0.68)
2007 255.6 159.4 (0.74)
2008 187.3 158.4 (0.76)
2009 218.2 156.2 (0.80)
2010 203.1 150.7 (0.90)
2011 208.7 149.8 (0.91)

x medio 219.36 0.3273

desv. Est x (Sx) 63.87 1.1376

n = número de datos 38
yn medio = 0.5424
Sn = 1.1363

parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 56.21
u = x-yn*a= 188.87

231.19 0.5380
62.85 1.1193

32
0.5380
1.1193

56.15
200.98
32.00
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.0100503

-y = -4.6001492

y = 4.6001492

y= x-u
a

x= u + a.y

x= 459.28
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055
100 1.2065
 9
0.5220
0.5353
0.5430
0.5481
0.5518
0.5545
0.5567
0.5585
0.5599

9
1.0565
1.1086
1.3880
1.1590
1.1734
1.1844
1.1930
1.2001
1.2060
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1974 165.6 445.8 6.753E-05 9.978E-01
1975 262.7 359.3 6.887E-04 9.738E-01
1976 156.2 322.3 1.558E-03 9.339E-01
1977 159.4 295.7 2.570E-03 8.798E-01
1978 150.7 291.7 2.751E-03 8.692E-01
1979 163.0 286.9 2.977E-03 8.554E-01
1980 174.6 273.3 3.661E-03 8.104E-01
1981 234.8 270.0 3.835E-03 7.980E-01
1982 158.4 262.7 4.224E-03 7.686E-01
1983 211.8 255.6 4.603E-03 7.372E-01
1984 359.3 243.9 5.207E-03 6.798E-01
1985 190.3 234.8 5.634E-03 6.304E-01
1986 295.7 218.2 6.234E-03 5.315E-01
1987 270.0 215.0 6.312E-03 5.115E-01
1988 286.9 213.8 6.338E-03 5.039E-01
1989 194.8 211.8 6.377E-03 4.912E-01
1990 149.8 208.7 6.425E-03 4.713E-01
1991 322.3 207.7 6.438E-03 4.649E-01
1992 215.0 206.2 6.453E-03 4.552E-01
1993 445.8 203.1 6.474E-03 4.352E-01
1994 207.7 201.1 6.478E-03 4.222E-01
1995 181.5 194.8 6.447E-03 3.815E-01
1996 168.5 194.1 6.439E-03 3.770E-01
1997 206.2 190.3 6.381E-03 3.526E-01
1998 273.3 187.3 6.316E-03 3.335E-01
1999 213.8 184.1 6.228E-03 3.135E-01
2000 291.7 181.5 6.144E-03 2.974E-01
2001 201.1 174.6 5.859E-03 2.559E-01
2002 164.9 168.5 5.539E-03 2.209E-01
2003 243.9 165.6 5.369E-03 2.053E-01
2004 184.1 164.9 5.326E-03 2.016E-01
2005 164.8 164.8 5.320E-03 2.010E-01
2006 194.1 163.0 5.205E-03 1.915E-01
2007 255.6 159.4 4.964E-03 1.732E-01
2008 187.3 158.4 4.894E-03 1.683E-01
2009 218.2 156.2 4.737E-03 1.577E-01
2010 203.1 150.7 4.324E-03 1.328E-01
2011 208.7 149.8 4.254E-03 1.289E-01
x (media) 219.4
s2 (varianza) 4080.0
a 11.794
b 18.60

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99

x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 394.564246
 f(x)

7.0E-03

6.0E-03

5.0E-03

4.0E-03

3.0E-03

2.0E-03

1.0E-03

0.0E+00
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

F(x)

1.2E+00

1.0E+00

8.0E-01

6.0E-01

4.0E-01

2.0E-01

0.0E+00
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
400 450 500

400 450 500

 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
f(x) = − 0
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
R² = 0.99
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8 f(x) = − 0
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 R² = 0.99
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 f(x) = − 0.0
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 R² = 0.999
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 f(x) = − 0
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 R² = 0.99
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891 f(x) = 0.00
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 R² = 0.999
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x) = 0.004077
R² = 0.9999829
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 f(x) = 0.0
f(x)
R² = 0.99
−0
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
R² = 0.99
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101 Po
5 Po
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.019053373574124 x³ + 0.003386338355749 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100

3
f(x) = − 0.013995500174486 x³ − 0.016949862220649 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594

f(x) = − 0.008957640594917 x³ − 0.032207029274952 x² + 0.349711848701964 x + 1.73532055819598

2
R² = 0.999397936569578

coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.002606769082899 x³ − 0.04125085322075 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.001376678186696 x³ − 0.035464436495096 x² − 0.047682765833101 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.004077831329721 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0

f(x) = 0.00139929287394 x³ + 0.035471941677622 x² − 0.047857401965741 x − 0.839213439174841

f(x)
R² = 0.999271357226285
− 0.01928340858034 x³ − 0.003647044696127 x² + 0.733220585508953 x − 2.30178106987562
R² = 0.999746677611077 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25) 2 Polynomial (2)
5 Polynomial (5) 10 Polynomial (10) 25 Polynomial (25)
 CUADRO Nº 3.5 - AJUSTE DE PRECIPITACIONES MENSUAL TOTAL

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D

n Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 445.8 0.026 0.001 0.002 0.012 0.013 0.002 0.02508 0.02361 0.01351 0.01294 0.02347
2 359.3 0.051 0.022 0.021 0.044 0.058 0.026 0.02887 0.03064 0.00731 0.00661 0.02504
3 322.3 0.077 0.071 0.053 0.080 0.109 0.066 0.00614 0.02442 0.00313 0.03194 0.01087
4 295.7 0.103 0.139 0.099 0.125 0.169 0.120 0.03653 0.00376 0.02278 0.06641 0.01763
5 291.7 0.128 0.152 0.108 0.134 0.180 0.131 0.02414 0.01994 0.00603 0.05205 0.00263
6 286.9 0.154 0.169 0.121 0.146 0.195 0.145 0.01548 0.03320 0.00805 0.04082 0.00927
7 273.3 0.179 0.224 0.163 0.185 0.241 0.190 0.04423 0.01698 0.00508 0.06157 0.01016
8 270.0 0.205 0.238 0.174 0.195 0.254 0.202 0.03315 0.03083 0.00963 0.04850 0.00311
9 262.7 0.231 0.272 0.203 0.222 0.283 0.231 0.04148 0.02792 0.00867 0.05256 0.00065
10 255.6 0.256 0.307 0.234 0.251 0.315 0.263 0.05103 0.02239 0.00492 0.05839 0.00635
11 243.9 0.282 0.369 0.293 0.309 0.372 0.320 0.08732 0.01091 0.02652 0.09021 0.03814
12 234.8 0.308 0.420 0.345 0.361 0.422 0.370 0.11242 0.03766 0.05368 0.11394 0.06187
13 218.2 0.333 0.516 0.454 0.479 0.521 0.468 0.18223 0.12098 0.14560 0.18759 0.13512
14 215.0 0.359 0.534 0.477 0.505 0.541 0.489 0.17506 0.11801 0.14588 0.18218 0.12956
15 213.8 0.385 0.541 0.486 0.515 0.549 0.496 0.15633 0.10098 0.13022 0.16420 0.11151
16 211.8 0.410 0.552 0.500 0.532 0.562 0.509 0.14217 0.08981 0.12153 0.15139 0.09858
17 208.7 0.436 0.570 0.523 0.559 0.582 0.529 0.13425 0.08688 0.12291 0.14580 0.09279
18 207.7 0.462 0.576 0.530 0.568 0.588 0.535 0.11429 0.06862 0.10617 0.12666 0.07358
19 206.2 0.487 0.584 0.541 0.581 0.598 0.545 0.09715 0.05410 0.09404 0.11079 0.05761
20 203.1 0.513 0.602 0.564 0.610 0.618 0.565 0.08894 0.05158 0.09689 0.10542 0.05201
21 201.1 0.538 0.613 0.579 0.628 0.631 0.578 0.07445 0.04094 0.09000 0.09287 0.03932
22 194.8 0.564 0.647 0.627 0.689 0.673 0.619 0.08327 0.06265 0.12488 0.10842 0.05443
23 194.1 0.590 0.651 0.632 0.696 0.677 0.623 0.06139 0.04226 0.10606 0.08734 0.03330
24 190.3 0.615 0.671 0.660 0.733 0.702 0.647 0.05590 0.04500 0.11755 0.08627 0.03203
25 187.3 0.641 0.687 0.683 0.762 0.721 0.666 0.04583 0.04154 0.12117 0.07979 0.02543
26 184.1 0.667 0.703 0.706 0.793 0.741 0.687 0.03643 0.03922 0.12636 0.07427 0.01987
27 181.5 0.692 0.716 0.725 0.818 0.757 0.703 0.02370 0.03222 0.12525 0.06470 0.01031
28 174.6 0.718 0.749 0.772 0.879 0.798 0.744 0.03096 0.05422 0.16073 0.08009 0.02613
29 168.5 0.744 0.776 0.812 0.925 0.832 0.779 0.03280 0.06813 0.18177 0.08854 0.03551
30 165.6 0.769 0.789 0.829 0.944 0.847 0.795 0.01935 0.05981 0.17445 0.07784 0.02547
31 164.9 0.795 0.792 0.833 0.948 0.851 0.798 0.00336 0.03829 0.15292 0.05576 0.00358
32 164.8 0.821 0.792 0.834 0.948 0.851 0.799 0.02859 0.01323 0.12785 0.03062 0.02153
33 163.0 0.846 0.799 0.844 1.000 0.860 0.808 0.04683 0.00205 0.15385 0.01394 0.03770
34 159.4 0.872 0.814 0.864 1.000 0.877 0.827 0.05815 0.00796 0.12821 0.00538 0.04503
35 158.4 0.897 0.818 0.869 1.000 0.882 0.832 0.07993 0.02836 0.10256 0.01572 0.06574
36 156.2 0.923 0.826 0.880 1.000 0.891 0.842 0.09726 0.04287 0.07692 0.03169 0.08079
37 150.7 0.949 0.846 0.906 1.000 0.914 0.867 0.10317 0.04307 0.05128 0.03515 0.08150
38 149.8 0.974 0.849 0.909 1.000 0.917 0.871 0.12573 0.06488 0.02564 0.05743 0.10329

0.18223 0.12098 0.18177 0.18759 0.13512

Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
0.2150