TAREA NO.

6 PROBLEMA 1
Para los datos de lluvias máximas en 24 horas de la estación Huasuntlán, Veracruz,
se desea obtener las precipitaciones máximas de diseño para los siguientes
periodos de retorno 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 ajustar con las
distribuciones de probabilidad Normal, Lognormal, Gumbel y DobleGumbel y
encontrar cual es la que mejor se ajusta con los dos métodos vistos en clase. Para
el caso de la función Doble Gumbel considerar los datos ciclónicos como los 5
primeros máximos.

Año Hp en mm de Huasuntlán
1953 72
1954 80
1955 106
1956 80.5
1957 70.5
1958 62
1959 43.1
1960 90
1961 87.5
1962 162
1963 218.4
1964 99.4
1965 131.8
1966 121
1967 Dato faltante
1968 112
1969 117
1970 62
1971 96.8
1972 135
1973 90
1974 265
1975 91
1976 70
SOLUCIÓN:

AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN EXPONENCIAL

Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T 1/T Q calc. Error ^ 2

1953 72 265 1 25 0.04 344.6947 2586646
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.08 270.4687 2834278
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.12 227.0493 2985814
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.16 196.2427 3096746
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.2 172.3473 3184985
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.24 152.8233 3258663
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.28 136.3161 3322177
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.32 122.0168 3378182
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 0.36 109.4039 3428408
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.4 98.12137 3474044
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.44 87.91504 3515944
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.48 78.59739 3554743
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 0.52 70.02599 3590927
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.56 62.09011 3624873
1967 107.05 90 15 1.666667 0.6 54.70197 3656884
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.64 47.79084 3687203
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.68 41.29883 3716032
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.72 35.17799 3743536
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.76 29.38818 3769856
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.8 23.89542 3795111
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.84 18.67071 3819403
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.88 13.68909 3842819
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.92 8.928954 3865435
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.96 4.37144 3887319

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
MEDIA DE Q: 107.085 DIST. EXPONENCIAL
BETA: 0.009 T (AÑOS) Q (m3/s)
SUMA DE ERROR 8929.317 2.00 74.23
5.00 172.35
10.00 246.57
20.00 320.80
50.00 418.92
100.00 493.15
500.00 665.49
1000.00 739.72
5000.00 912.07
10000.00 986.29
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

No.
Precipit Gasto Orde
Año aciones ord. n T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 0.96 2.537272 1.751049 194.2461 5006.11
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.92 2.247545 1.4053 177.0357 1711.007
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.88 2.059254 1.1751 165.5756 12.78457
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.84 1.914462 0.9944 156.5825 465.8023
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.8 1.794123 0.8414 148.9684 294.753
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.76 1.689447 0.7060 142.2271 450.5907
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.72 1.595597 0.5824 136.0772 363.9407
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.68 1.509592 0.4672 130.3429 336.4612
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 0.64 1.429441 0.3580 124.9043 318.7752
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.6 1.353729 0.2529 119.6737 186.9698
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.56 1.28139 0.1506 114.5825 230.5078
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.52 1.211585 0.0500 109.5734 163.1593
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 0.48 1.143614 -0.0500 104.5954 184.8337
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.44 1.076864 -0.1504 99.59976 92.15543
1967 107.05 90 15 1.666667 0.4 1.010768 -0.2521 94.53694 20.58382
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.36 0.944761 -0.3562 89.35265 3.432299
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.32 0.878251 -0.4641 83.98358 12.13532
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.28 0.81056 -0.5773 78.35095 2.719379
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.24 0.74086 -0.6978 72.35012 0.122583
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.2 0.668047 -0.8288 65.83217 21.78867
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.16 0.590514 -0.9747 58.56715 130.7101
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.12 0.505635 -1.1436 50.16022 140.1804
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.08 0.408367 -1.3514 39.8164 492.1121
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.04 0.285734 -1.6413 25.38709 313.7473

MEDIA DE Q: 107.085 EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

DESV. EST. 49.776 DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

SUMA DE ERROR 104.668 T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)

2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 107.08
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 148.97
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 170.88
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 188.98
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 209.33
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 222.90
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 250.37
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 260.92
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 283.30
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 292.21
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GAMMA 2P

Preci No.
pitaci Orde
Año ones Gasto ord. n T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 0.96 2.537272 1.751049 207.8013 3271.6923
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.92 2.247545 1.4053 182.1593 1313.3856
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.88 2.059254 1.1751 166.3118 18.592033
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.84 1.914462 0.9944 154.5404 381.82624
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.8 1.794123 0.8414 145.0193 174.75051
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.76 1.689447 0.7060 136.9232 253.54986
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.72 1.595597 0.5824 129.8054 163.97786
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.68 1.509592 0.4672 123.3947 129.84006
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 0.64 1.429441 0.3580 117.5131 109.47606
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.6 1.353729 0.2529 112.0356 36.428464
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.56 1.28139 0.1506 106.8702 55.803304
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.52 1.211585 0.0500 101.9454 26.475354
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 0.48 1.143614 -0.0500 97.20348 38.483114
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.44 1.076864 -0.1504 92.59496 6.7338026
1967 107 90 15 1.666667 0.4 1.010768 -0.2521 88.07543 3.7039868
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.36 0.944761 -0.3562 83.60237 15.19151
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.32 0.878251 -0.4641 79.13226 1.8707026
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.28 0.81056 -0.5773 74.61706 28.976036
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.24 0.74086 -0.6978 69.99928 4.0029002
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.2 0.668047 -0.8288 65.20385 28.049254
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.16 0.590514 -0.9747 60.12272 97.560621
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.12 0.505635 -1.1436 54.5808 55.044504
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.08 0.408367 -1.3514 48.24311 189.25193
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.04 0.285734 -1.6413 40.2505 8.119627

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
MEDIA DE Q: 107.085
DISTRIBUCION GAMMA 2P
DESV. EST. 49.776
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
ALFA: 23.137
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 99.55
BETA: 4.628
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 145.02
SUMA DE ERROR 80.080
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 173.53
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 199.71
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 232.17
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 255.65
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 307.91
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 329.75
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 379.43
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 400.50
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN LOGNORMAL

Prec
ipita No.
cion Precip- Orde
Año es ord. n T F(Q) w z LnQ P calc. Error ^ 2
1.7510
1953 72 265 1 25 0.96 2.537272 49 5.57973 199.04077 39220.15
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.92 2.247545 1.4053 5.386328 173.24905 29326.24
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.88 2.059254 1.1751 5.087596 157.95647 24011.51
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.84 1.914462 0.9944 4.905275 146.90734 20422.51
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.8 1.794123 0.8414 4.881286 138.15892 17731.3
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.76 1.689447 0.7060 4.795791 130.84918 15587.32
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.72 1.595597 0.5824 4.762174 124.51854 13810.61
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.68 1.509592 0.4672 4.718499 118.8919 12297.01
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 0.64 1.429441 0.3580 4.673296 113.79056 10981.06
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.6 1.353729 0.2529 4.663439 109.09094 9819.015
218.
1963 4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.56 1.28139 0.1506 4.599152 104.70303 8780.257
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.52 1.211585 0.0500 4.572647 100.55816 7842.548
131. -
1965 8 91 13 1.923077 0.48 1.143614 0.0500 4.51086 96.601583 6989.225
-
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.44 1.076864 0.1504 4.49981 92.787532 6207.475
107. -
1967 05 90 15 1.666667 0.4 1.010768 0.2521 4.49981 89.075769 5487.219
-
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.36 0.944761 0.3562 4.471639 85.428767 4820.354
-
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.32 0.878251 0.4641 4.388257 81.8091 4200.219
-
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.28 0.81056 0.5773 4.382027 78.176476 3621.208
-
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.24 0.74086 0.6978 4.276666 74.483683 3078.439
-
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.2 0.668047 0.8288 4.255613 70.67002 2567.451
-
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.16 0.590514 0.9747 4.248495 66.64891 2083.823
-
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.12 0.505635 1.1436 4.127134 62.280476 1622.517
-
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.08 0.408367 1.3514 4.127134 57.296458 1176.247
-
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.04 0.285734 1.6413 3.763523 51.003055 729.165

MEDIA DE LnQ: 4.591

DESV. EST. DE LnQ 0.401
SUMA DE ERROR 502.407
 EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z P (mm)
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 98.56
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 138.16
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 164.86
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 190.76
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 224.79
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 250.78
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 312.95
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 340.75
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 408.16
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 438.54

AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL

No.
Año Precipitaciones Gasto ord. Orden T Xi Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 -3.198534 208.86 3151.697
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 -2.484328 181.1306 1389.009
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 -2.057028 164.5405 6.453931
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 -1.746671 152.4907 305.925
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 -1.49994 142.9113 123.46
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 -1.293034 134.878 192.5997
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 -1.113206 127.8961 118.7254
1960 90 112 8 3.125 -0.952793 121.668 93.47002
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 -0.806793 115.9995 80.09303
1962 162 106 10 2.5 -0.671727 110.7555 22.61453
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 -0.54504 105.8368 41.43233
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 -0.42476 101.1669 19.06957
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 -0.309288 96.68361 32.30342
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 -0.197256 92.3339 5.447075
1967 107.05 90 15 1.666667 -0.087422 88.06953 3.726728
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.0214202 83.84369 13.36859
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.1305319 79.60737 0.79678
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.2413494 75.30483 22.0446
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.3556559 70.86682 1.284086
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.475885 66.19887 18.49972
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.6057256 61.15774 78.1855
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.7515404 55.49641 42.29665
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.9265296 48.70237 176.827
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 1.1690322 39.28709 14.53831

MEDIA DE Q: 107.085
DESV. EST. 49.776
ALFA 38.825
BETA 84.675
SUMA DE ERROR 77.161
 EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DIST. GUMBEL
T (AÑOS) Q (m3/s)
2.00 98.91
5.00 142.91
10.00 172.05
20.00 199.99
50.00 236.17
100.00 263.28
500.00 325.92
1000.00 352.85
5000.00 415.36
10000.00 442.27

AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN DOBLE GUMBEL

Preci
pitaci No.
Año ones Gasto ord. Orden T F(Q) F1(Q) F2(Q) F(Q) calc. Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 0.96 0.999963 0.809928 0.0003658 252.5578571 154.806921
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.92 0.99964 0.62103 0.0007167 215.8324325 6.592402913
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.88 0.998264 0.431794 9.35E-05 190.2917907 800.4254217
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.84 0.993405 0.256875 -0.000391 168.603246 1129.178143
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.8 0.978558 0.124493 7.198E-05 149.3596402 308.3409635
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.76 0.947068 0.054939 0.0006017 134.4404332 180.645244
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.72 0.902397 0.02605 -0.000705 124.1302722 50.84078105
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.68 0.855765 0.014439 5.473E-05 117.3756271 28.8973667
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 0.64 0.806428 0.008562 -0.000139 112.1376517 25.88419977
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.6 0.756295 0.005356 -0.000422 107.9035442 3.623480553
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.56 0.706682 0.003499 -2.87E-05 104.3768558 24.76909334
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.52 0.656468 0.002332 2.281E-05 101.2545952 19.84341872
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 0.48 0.606077 0.001577 9.647E-06 98.43668559 55.3042926
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.44 0.555855 0.001077 0.0001767 95.85252484 34.252047
107.0
1967 5 90 15 1.666667 0.4 0.506274 0.000742 0.0008783 93.45809364 11.95841159
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.36 0.454961 0.000503 0.0002252 91.09306629 12.91012539
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.32 0.403919 0.000339 -0.000202 88.81093882 69.07170405
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.28 0.353057 0.000225 -0.00048 86.56606797 43.11324862
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.24 0.303085 0.000147 -4.81E-05 84.34764214 152.4642665
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.2 0.252587 9.28E-05 -3.03E-05 82.04328907 133.2475226
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.16 0.201124 5.48E-05 -0.000775 79.55843732 91.363724
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.12 0.151912 3.05E-05 0.000265 76.94351208 223.3085532
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.08 0.100743 1.42E-05 -0.000245 73.74572853 137.9621388
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.04 0.050479 4.68E-06 -3.77E-05 69.47738871 695.7666351

Promedio Desv. est. Alfa Beta Pob. ciclónica 5

182.44 57.75386 0.022199 182.4272 Pob. No ciclónica 19
87.25526 20.79199 0.061661 87.21967 P inicial 0.8
P ajustada 0.791666667
SUMA DE ERROR 66.2915538
AJUSTE POR EL MÉTODO DE NASH
Precip No.
itacio Gasto Orde
Año nes ord. n T Xi XiQi Xi^2 Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 -3.19853 -847.612 10.23062 220.9119 1943.758
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 -2.48433 -542.577 6.171883 190.4521 781.0866
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 -2.05703 -333.238 4.231363 172.2284 104.6196
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 -1.74667 -235.801 3.05086 158.9921 575.6222
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 -1.49994 -197.692 2.24982 148.4694 277.8694
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 -1.29303 -156.457 1.671937 139.6452 347.643
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 -1.11321 -130.245 1.239228 131.9758 224.2743
1960 90 112 8 3.125 -0.95279 -106.713 0.907814 125.1344 172.5124
1961 87.5 107.05 9 2.777778 -0.80679 -86.3672 0.650915 118.9077 140.6056
1962 162 106 10 2.5 -0.67173 -71.2031 0.451217 113.1474 51.08484
1963 218.4 99.4 11 2.272727 -0.54504 -54.177 0.297069 107.7444 69.62838
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 -0.42476 -41.1168 0.180421 102.6146 33.80967
1965 131.8 91 13 1.923077 -0.30929 -28.1452 0.095659 97.68989 44.75469
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 -0.19726 -17.753 0.03891 92.91188 8.479048
1967 107.05 90 15 1.666667 -0.08742 -7.86794 0.007643 88.22761 3.141359
1.87426
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.02142 6 0.000459 83.58567 15.32195
10.5078
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.130532 2 0.017039 78.93222 2.457928
19.3079
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.241349 5 0.05825 74.20602 33.57017
25.6072
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.355656 2 0.126491 69.33102 7.123452
33.5498
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.475885 9 0.226467 64.20343 39.64682
42.4007
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.605726 9 0.366904 58.66592 128.4614
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.75154 46.5955 0.564813 52.44714 91.2572
57.4448
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.92653 3 0.858457 44.98411 289.5406
50.3852
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 1.169032 9 1.366636 34.64174 71.54224

EVENTOS DE
Promedio de Q: 107.085 DISEÑO
METODO DE NASH
Promedio de X: -0.530
T Q (m3/s)
Suma XiQi: -2569.292
(AÑOS)
Suma Xi^2: 35.061 2 495.9106
c= -42.649 5 1087.398
a= 84.499 10 1479.014
Suma de errores 73.877 20 1854.661
50 2340.898
100 2705.264
500 3547.259
1000 3909.244
5000 4749.35
10000 5111.099
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN PEARSON III
Pre
cipit
No.
acio Gasto Orde
Año nes ord. n T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2
1953 72 265 1 25 0.96 2.537272 1.751049 121.4553 20605.09
1954 80 218.4 2 12.5 0.92 2.247545 1.4053 118.3496 10010.09
1955 106 162 3 8.333333 0.88 2.059254 1.1751 116.3353 2085.261
1956 80.5 135 4 6.25 0.84 1.914462 0.9944 114.7845 408.6681
1957 70.5 131.8 5 5 0.8 1.794123 0.8414 113.4917 335.195
1958 62 121 6 4.166667 0.76 1.689447 0.7060 112.3625 74.60681
1959 43.1 117 7 3.571429 0.72 1.595597 0.5824 111.3449 31.98038
1960 90 112 8 3.125 0.68 1.509592 0.4672 110.4068 2.538429
1961 87.5 107 9 2.777778 0.64 1.429441 0.3580 109.5265 6.133127
1962 162 106 10 2.5 0.6 1.353729 0.2529 108.6886 7.228688
218.
1963 4 99.4 11 2.272727 0.56 1.28139 0.1506 107.8812 71.93055
1964 99.4 96.8 12 2.083333 0.52 1.211585 0.0500 107.0946 105.9781
131.
1965 8 91 13 1.923077 0.48 1.143614 -0.0500 106.3204 234.7159
1966 121 90 14 1.785714 0.44 1.076864 -0.1504 105.5512 241.8392
107.
1967 05 90 15 1.666667 0.4 1.010768 -0.2521 104.7793 218.4275
1968 112 87.5 16 1.5625 0.36 0.944761 -0.3562 103.9969 272.1479
1969 117 80.5 17 1.470588 0.32 0.878251 -0.4641 103.1951 515.0695
1970 62 80 18 1.388889 0.28 0.81056 -0.5773 102.3633 500.1161
1971 96.8 72 19 1.315789 0.24 0.74086 -0.6978 101.4874 869.5067
1972 135 70.5 20 1.25 0.2 0.668047 -0.8288 100.5481 902.8876
1973 90 70 21 1.190476 0.16 0.590514 -0.9747 99.5158 871.1822
1974 265 62 22 1.136364 0.12 0.505635 -1.1436 98.34042 1320.626
1975 91 62 23 1.086957 0.08 0.408367 -1.3514 96.92221 1219.561
1976 70 43.1 24 1.041667 0.04 0.285734 -1.6413 94.9948 2693.071

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
MEDIA DE Q: 107.085
DISTRIBUCION PEARSON III
DESV. EST. 49.776
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
ASIMETRIA 1.874
BETA: 1.139 2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 106.71
GAMMA: 46.644 5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 113.49
Xo: 53.967 10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 117.26
SUMA DE ERROR 208.815 20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 120.49
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 124.26
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 126.85
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 132.27
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 134.43
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 139.13
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 141.05
RESUMEN DE ERRORES AL CUADRADO

Distribución Error Mejor Distribución: 66.29

Exponencial 8929.32
Gamma2p 80.08
Gumbel1p 77.16
Gumbel2p 66.29
LogNormal 502.41
Nash 73.88
Normal 104.67
Pearson III 208.82

La distribución doble Gumbel es la

función óptima para cálculo de las
precipitaciones máximas de diseño

GRÁFICAS PARA EL AJUSTE DOBLE GUMBEL, QUE RESULTA SER EL MÁS

SATISFACTORIO:
Precipitación Precipitación
Z
ordenada calculada
3.198534 265 199.0408
2.484328 218.4 173.249
2.057028 162 157.9565
1.746671 135 146.9073
 1.49994 131.8 138.1589
1.293034 121 130.8492
1.113206 117 124.5185
0.952793 112 118.8919
0.806793 107.05 113.7906
0.671727 106 109.0909
0.54504 99.4 104.703
0.42476 96.8 100.5582
0.309288 91 96.60158
0.197256 90 92.78753
0.087422 90 89.07577
-0.02142 87.5 85.42877
-0.13053 80.5 81.8091
-0.24135 80 78.17648
-0.35566 72 74.48368
-0.47588 70.5 70.67002
-0.60573 70 66.64891
-0.75154 62 62.28048
-0.92653 62 57.29646
-1.16903 43.1 51.00306

Gráfica para las precipitaciones de diseño según el ajuste Doble Gumbel

PROBLEMA NO.3
Para los datos de gastos máximos anuales de la estación hidrométrica Calapilla, se
desea obtener los gastos máximos de diseño para los siguientes periodos de retorno
2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000 y 10000, ajustar con las distribuciones
de probabilidad Normal, Lognormal, Gumbel y DobleGumbel y encontrar cual es la
que mejor se ajusta con los dos métodos vistos en clase. Para el caso de la función
Doble Gumbel considerar los datos ciclónicos como el 30% de la muestra.

Año Gastos (m3/s)

1955 117.8
1956 139.1
1957 37
1958 192.8
1959 126.1
1960 71.5
1961 15.4
1962 34.5
1963 68.5
1964 240.5
1965 48.2
1966 65.7
1967 526.4
1968 135.6
1969 134.4
1970 128.6
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN EXPONENCIAL

Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T 1/T Q calc. Error ^ 2

1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 0.0588235 368.6896 2516381
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 0.1176471 278.4895 2814042
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 0.1764706 225.7258 2997310
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 0.2352941 188.2894 3131876
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 0.2941176 159.2514 3239095
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 0.3529412 135.5257 3328706
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 0.4117647 115.4659 3405996
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 0.4705882 98.08927 3474163
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 0.5294118 82.76201 3535295
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 0.5882353 69.05132 3590831
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.6470588 56.64848 3641806
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.7058824 45.32559 3688990
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.7647059 34.90953 3732974
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.8235294 25.26576 3774216
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.8823529 16.28764 3813086
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 0.9411765 7.889158 3849879

MEDIA DE Q: 130.131
BETA: 0.008
SUMA DE ERROR 7119.323

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DIST. EXPONENCIAL
T (AÑOS) Q (m3/s)
2.00 90.20
5.00 209.44
10.00 299.64
20.00 389.84
50.00 509.08
100.00 599.28
500.00 808.71
1000.00 898.91
5000.00 1108.35
10000.00 1198.55
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GAMMA 2P

Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2

1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 0.9411765 2.380426 1.565025 350.1854 54002.997
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 0.8823529 2.068848 1.1869 268.4301 66548.488
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 0.8235294 1.862579 0.9288 220.638 394.49863
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 0.7647059 1.701128 0.7212 186.6103 38.312741
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 0.7058824 1.564465 0.5410 160.0609 439.36036
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 0.6470588 1.443228 0.3769 138.2004 6.7620624
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 0.5882353 1.332144 0.2226 119.5426 220.74332
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 0.5294118 1.227821 0.0736 103.199 645.20905
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 0.4705882 1.12782 -0.0736 88.59361 1406.729
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 0.4117647 1.030173 -0.2220 75.32822 14.655292
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.3529412 0.933079 -0.3750 63.11251 29.025037
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.2941176 0.834634 -0.5366 51.72324 195.3497
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.2352941 0.732481 -0.7126 40.97814 52.155287
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.1764706 0.623147 -0.9124 30.71566 39.492939
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.1176471 0.500326 -1.1545 20.77274 188.43757
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 0.0588235 0.348209 -1.4892 10.9387 19.903205

MEDIA DE Q: 130.131
DESV. EST. 121.797
ALFA: 113.997
BETA: 1.142
SUMA DE ERROR 352.480

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DISTRIBUCION GAMMA 2P
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 95.71
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 205.85
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 287.58
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 369.42
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 478.55
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 562.10
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 759.83
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 846.67
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 1052.28
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 1142.52
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL
Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T Xi Q calc. Error ^ 2
1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 -2.803054 341.5917 50082.73
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 -2.078137 272.7232 64351.92
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 -1.639093 231.0132 89.99996
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 -1.315784 200.2981 56.22211
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 -1.054672 175.492 1324.378
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 -0.831678 154.3072 349.9587
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 -0.633694 135.4983 1.206156
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 -0.452574 118.2916 106.2636
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 -0.282666 102.1499 573.6068
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 -0.119569 86.65537 229.6853
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.0406177 71.43737 8.628142
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.2019407 56.11137 91.9418
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.3694365 40.19895 64.01681
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.5507774 22.9712 196.8071
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.7608367 3.015162 991.295
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 1.0414115 0 237.16

MEDIA DE Q: 130.131
DESV. EST. 121.797
ALFA 95.002
BETA 75.296
SUMA DE ERROR 344.610

EVENTOS DE
DISEÑO
DIST. GUMBEL
T (AÑOS) Q
(m3/s)
2.00 110.12
5.00 217.79
10.00 289.09
20.00 357.47
50.00 445.99
100.00 512.32
500.00 665.60
1000.00 731.50
5000.00 884.44
10000.00 950.29
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL 2P

Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T F(Q) F1(Q) F2(Q) F(Q) calc. Q calc. Error ^ 2
1955 117.8 117.8
1 17 0.941176 0.999964 0.763151 -0.000422 451.6558946 111459.7583
1956 139.1 526.4
2 8.5 0.882353 0.999046 0.532641 -3.51E-05 333.7701604 37106.25511
1957 37 240.5
3 5.666667 0.823529 0.990768 0.322146 -0.00066 252.0027665 132.3136368
1958 192.8 192.8
4 4.25 0.764706 0.959188 0.188384 -0.000141 197.9760655 26.79165424
1959 126.1 139.1
5 3.4 0.705882 0.903717 0.122574 -0.000402 166.0546394 726.5525863
1960 71.5 135.6
6 2.833333 0.647059 0.837955 0.088582 -3.6E-05 146.0084785 108.3364241
1961 15.4 134.4
7 2.428571 0.588235 0.76677 0.067732 -0.000174 131.3769773 9.138665964
1962 34.5 128.6
8 2.125 0.529412 0.692226 0.053486 -0.000986 119.6623494 79.88159771
1963 68.5 126.1
9 1.888889 0.470588 0.618426 0.043392 -6.02E-05 110.0495598 257.6166315
1964 240.5 71.5
10 1.7 0.411765 0.542417 0.03547 -0.000142 101.3733673 892.4180735
1965 48.2 68.5
11 1.545455 0.352941 0.466228 0.029156 0.0001284 93.42345616 621.1786667
1966 65.7 65.7
12 1.416667 0.294118 0.389541 0.023912 0.0003667 85.81911999 404.7789893
1967 526.4 48.2
13 1.307692 0.235294 0.31181 0.019384 7.472E-05 78.19792641 899.8755888
1968 135.6 37
14 1.214286 0.176471 0.234129 0.015399 2.787E-05 70.29324208 1108.439968
1969 134.4 34.5
15 1.133333 0.117647 0.156282 0.011719 2.244E-05 61.46142651 726.9185194
1970 128.6 15.4
16 1.0625 0.058824 0.078109 0.008017 -8.52E-05 50.04531613 1200.29793

Pob. ciclónica 4 Promedio Desv. est. Alfa Beta

Pob. No ciclónica 12 269.375 178.6377 0.007177 269.3709
SUMA DE ERROR 394.6651 83.71667 46.10026 0.02781 83.70061
P inicial 0.8
P ajustada 0.75

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DIST. DOBLE GUMBEL
T F(Q) F1(Q) F2(Q) F(Q)calc. Qcalc. (m3/s)
(AÑOS)
2 0.50 0.65571583 0.04812111 -0.000324686 114.72
5 0.80 0.98163331 0.25809938 -0.000435283 227.10
10 0.90 0.99958299 0.60124479 -6.42444E-05 363.53
20 0.95 0.99998186 0.79728724 -0.000695414 476.26
50 0.98 0.99999957 0.9173049 -0.000674197 610.71
100 0.99 0.99999997 0.95858177 -0.000354583 710.09
500 1.00 1 0.9897168 -0.000570801 906.43
1000 1.00 1 0.99268875 -0.000827814 954.17
5000 1.00 1 0.99714048 -0.000514879 1085.29
10000 1.00 1 0.99738745 -0.000553138 1097.89
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN LOGNORMAL
Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T F(Q) w z LnQ Q calc. Error ^ 2
1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 0.9411765 2.380426 1.565025 4.768988 356.48659 126370.7
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 0.8823529 2.068848 1.1869 6.266061 258.21192 65644.55
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 0.8235294 1.862579 0.9288 5.48272 207.18226 41690.39
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 0.7647059 1.701128 0.7212 5.261653 173.56714 28753.02
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 0.7058824 1.564465 0.5410 4.935193 148.83143 20687.48
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 0.6470588 1.443228 0.3769 4.909709 129.39609 15226.6
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 0.5882353 1.332144 0.2226 4.90082 113.43575 11328.57
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 0.5294118 1.227821 0.0736 4.856707 99.896663 8444.997
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 0.4705882 1.12782 -0.0736 4.837075 88.113984 6259.022
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 0.4117647 1.030173 -0.2220 4.269697 77.636963 4574.759
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.3529412 0.933079 -0.3750 4.226834 68.138693 3264.83
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.2941176 0.834634 -0.5366 4.185099 59.363186 2243.271
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.2352941 0.732481 -0.7126 3.875359 51.087614 1450.666
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.1764706 0.623147 -0.9124 3.610918 43.08318 845.8314
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.1176471 0.500326 -1.1545 3.540959 35.043888 401.7574
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 0.0588235 0.348209 -1.4892 2.734368 26.341549 106.9476

MEDIA DE LnQ: 4.541

DESV. EST. DE
LnQ 0.853
SUMA DE ERROR 580.770

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 93.82
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 192.31
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 279.96
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 381.71
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 541.05
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 682.68
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 1092.94
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 1309.60
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 1921.91
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 2238.70
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NASH
Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T Xi XiQi Xi^2 Q calc. Error ^ 2
1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 -2.80305 -330.2 7.857113 311.7925 37633.1
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 -2.07814 -1093.93 4.318654 254.2281 74077.55
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 -1.63909 -394.202 2.686627 219.3643 446.7165
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 -1.31578 -253.683 1.731287 193.6909 0.793643
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 -1.05467 -146.705 1.112333 172.9564 1146.256
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 -0.83168 -112.776 0.691689 155.2489 386.0778
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 -0.63369 -85.1684 0.401568 139.5272 26.28846
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 -0.45257 -58.2011 0.204824 125.1449 11.93804
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 -0.28267 -35.6441 0.0799 111.6527 208.725
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 -0.11957 -8.54915 0.014297 98.70142 739.917
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.040618 2.782312 0.00165 85.9813 305.5957
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.201941 13.2675 0.04078 73.17091 55.81443
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.369436 17.80684 0.136483 59.87035 136.197
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.550777 20.37877 0.303356 45.47036 71.74704
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.760837 26.24887 0.578873 28.7899 32.60519
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 1.041412 16.03774 1.084538 6.509931 79.03333

Promedio de Q: 130.131
Promedio de X: -0.515
Suma XiQi: -2422.537
Suma Xi^2: 21.244
c= -79.408
a= 89.207
Suma de errores 339.644

EVENTOS DE
DISEÑO
METODO DE
NASH
T Q (m3/s)
(AÑOS)
2 495.9106
5 1087.398
10 1479.014
20 1854.661
50 2340.898
100 2705.264
500 3547.259
1000 3909.244
 5000 4749.35
10000 5111.099
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2

1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 0.9411765 2.380426 1.565025 320.7472 41187.57
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 0.8823529 2.068848 1.1869 274.6942 63355.81
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 0.8235294 1.862579 0.9288 243.2538 7.583419
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 0.7647059 1.701128 0.7212 217.9745 633.7575
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 0.7058824 1.564465 0.5410 196.0201 3239.897
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 0.6470588 1.443228 0.3769 176.0382 1635.248
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 0.5882353 1.332144 0.2226 157.2407 521.6976
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 0.5294118 1.227821 0.0736 139.0917 110.0752
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 0.4705882 1.12782 -0.0736 121.1704 24.30058
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 0.4117647 1.030173 -0.2220 103.0946 998.2199
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.3529412 0.933079 -0.3750 84.46036 254.7332
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.2941176 0.834634 -0.5366 64.77336 0.858661
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.2352941 0.732481 -0.7126 43.33554 23.66297
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.1764706 0.623147 -0.9124 19.00227 323.9181
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.1176471 0.500326 -1.1545 0 1190.25
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 0.0588235 0.348209 -1.4892 0 237.16

MEDIA DE Q: 130.131
DESV. EST. 121.797
SUMA DE ERROR 337.261

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 130.13
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 232.61
10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 286.24
20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 330.51
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 380.32
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 413.52
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 480.72
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 506.55
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 561.32
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 583.11
AJUSTE POR LA DISTRIBUCIÓN PEARSON III
Año Gasto Gasto ord. No. Orden T F(Q) w z Q calc. Error ^ 2
1955 117.8 117.8 1 17 0.9411765 2.380426 1.565025 142.7614 623.0737
1956 139.1 526.4 2 8.5 0.8823529 2.068848 1.1869 139.5609 149644.5
1957 37 240.5 3 5.666667 0.8235294 1.862579 0.9288 137.4119 10627.16
1958 192.8 192.8 4 4.25 0.7647059 1.701128 0.7212 135.7051 3259.829
1959 126.1 139.1 5 3.4 0.7058824 1.564465 0.5410 134.2379 23.63962
1960 71.5 135.6 6 2.833333 0.6470588 1.443228 0.3769 132.9148 7.210322
1961 15.4 134.4 7 2.428571 0.5882353 1.332144 0.2226 131.6806 7.394962
1962 34.5 128.6 8 2.125 0.5294118 1.227821 0.0736 130.4987 3.605104
1963 68.5 126.1 9 1.888889 0.4705882 1.12782 -0.0736 129.3409 10.50347
1964 240.5 71.5 10 1.7 0.4117647 1.030173 -0.2220 128.1824 3212.897
1965 48.2 68.5 11 1.545455 0.3529412 0.933079 -0.3750 126.9979 3422.003
1966 65.7 65.7 12 1.416667 0.2941176 0.834634 -0.5366 125.7571 3606.859
1967 526.4 48.2 13 1.307692 0.2352941 0.732481 -0.7126 124.4185 5809.258
1968 135.6 37 14 1.214286 0.1764706 0.623147 -0.9124 122.9147 7381.334
1969 134.4 34.5 15 1.133333 0.1176471 0.500326 -1.1545 121.1143 7502.037
1970 128.6 15.4 16 1.0625 0.0588235 0.348209 -1.4892 118.6657 10663.8

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO
MEDIA DE Q: 130.131
121.797 DISTRIBUCION PEARSON III
DESV. EST.
T (AÑOS) F(Q) W z Q (m3/s)
ASIMETRIA 2.504
2.00 0.50 1.18 0.00 129.92
BETA: 0.638
5.00 0.80 1.79 0.84 136.69
GAMMA: 152.461
32.830 10.00 0.90 2.15 1.28 140.36
Xo:
453.658 20.00 0.95 2.45 1.65 143.45
SUMA DE ERROR
50.00 0.98 2.80 2.05 147.00
100.00 0.99 3.03 2.33 149.40
500.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 154.38
1000.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 156.32
5000.00 1.00 4.13 3.54 160.52
10000.00 1.00 4.29 3.72 162.22
RESUMEN DE ERRORES AL CUADRADO

Distribución Error
Mejor Distribución: 337.26
Exponencial 7119.32
Gamma2p 352.48
Gumbel1p 344.61
Gumbel2p 394.67
LogNormal 580.77
Nash 339.64
Normal 337.26
Pearson III 453.66

La función Normal es la función óptima

para el uso de los gastos de diseño de
una obra hidráulica.

GASTOS CALCULADOS Y GRÁFICA PARA EL AJUSTE NORMAL QUE RESULTA

SER EL MÁS SATISFACTORIO:

Z Gasto ordenado Gasto calculado

2.803054168 117.8 320.747
2.078137249 526.4 274.694
1.639093245 240.5 243.254
1.315783759 192.8 217.975
1.054671882 139.1 196.02
0.831678317 135.6 176.038
0.633693595 134.4 157.241
0.452574378 128.6 139.092
0.282665606 126.1 121.17
0.119568534 71.5 103.095
-0.040617693 68.5 84.4604
-0.201940696 65.7 64.7737
-0.369436456 48.2 43.3355
-0.550777448 37 19.0023
-0.760836746 34.5 0
-1.041411525 15.4 0
 Gasto de diseño (Normal)
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Series1 Series2

Gráfica de los gastos de diseño para en ajuste Normal, que resultó ser el óptimo.

TAREA No 6 PROBLEMA 4

Utilizando el método de Chow, calcular el gasto máximo de diseño con los siguientes
periodos de retorno 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 y 1000 años. Los datos de la
cuenca son los siguientes:

1. Área de la cuenca: 21.5 km2

2. Relieve: 28% de bosque natural normal, 64% de bosque y 8% de

carreteras.

3. Suelo: arenas finas y limos orgánicos.

4. Longitud del cauce principal: 10 km

5. Pendiente: 0.0013

𝐴𝑍𝑃 𝑇𝑟
Método de Chow: 𝑄𝑝 = 0.278 ; 𝑧 = −𝐼𝑛 𝐼𝑛( ) donde:
𝑑 𝑇𝑟−1
A = Área de la cuenca
Z = factor de reducción propuesto por Chow
P = precipitación neta, en exceso o efectiva
d = duración en exceso de la lluvia en horas

N1 = 60, N2 = 52, N3=82

𝑁1𝐴1 + 𝑁2𝐴2 + 𝑁3𝐴3
𝑁=
𝐴𝑇

(60)(21.5)(0.28) + (82)(0.64)(21.5) + (82)(0.58)(21.5)

𝑁=
21.5

𝑁 = 58.64
Tr Precipitación Precipitación Ce Z Q (m3/s)
Total (mm) en exceso
(mm)
2 99.81 79.7583 0.7991 0.3665 34.6193
5 149.36 128.319 0.8591 1.4999 227.94
10 202.07 180.474 0.8931 2.2503 480.476
20 240.81 218.951 0.909 2.9702 770.145
50 276.67 264.587 0.9229 3.9019 1222.68
100 319.81 297.604 0.9305 4.6001 1621.34
200 343.08 320.801 0.9350 5.2958 2012.03
500 412.8 370.2439 0.9456 6.2136 2873.19
1000 450.56 428.088 0.9500 6.9012 3501.49

tc= (0.000325)(L0.77/S0.165)
tc= (0.000325)(100.77/0.00130.165) = 5.04679 hr = 302.87 min = 303 min
tc = 303min = dc = para cauces menores de 25 km2 de área
Qf = 0.278 (A x Z x Pc/de)
 (21.5)(0.3665)(79.7583)
𝑄𝑝2 = 0.278 = 34.6193 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(1.4999)(128.319)
𝑄𝑝5 = 0.278 = 227.94 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(2.2503)(180.474)
𝑄𝑝10 = 0.278 = 480.976 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(2.9702)(218.951)
𝑄𝑝20 = 0.278 = 770.195 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(3.9019)(264.587)
𝑄𝑝50 = 0.278 = 1222.68 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(4.6001)(297.604)
𝑄𝑝100 = 0.278 = 1621.34 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(5.2958)(320.801)
𝑄𝑝200 = 0.278 = 2012.03 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(6.2136)(390.439)
𝑄𝑝500 = 0.278 = 2873.19 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679

(21.5)(6.9072)(428.038)
𝑄𝑝1000 = 0.278 = 3501.49 𝑚3 /𝑠
5.04679