Producción Carne Res ColoProducción Carne Res Colombia (T Producción

Departamento
2017 907645 2017 907645 317675.75
2018 895988 2018 895988 313595.8
2019 885289 2019 885289 309851.15
2020 903606 2020 903606 316262.1
Producción Producción CarneProducción Carne de Pollo Colombia (Ton)
Napoles
47651.3625 370661 1444629
47039.37 419091 1517399
46477.6725 459763 1604281
47439.315 496487 1678126
 RES

Proporción por
Mes demanda DEMANDA pronostico error Err absoluto
ene.-17 0.0577 2749
feb.-17 0.1205 5742
mar.-17 0.0374 1782
abr.-17 0.0917 4370 3425 945 945
may.-17 0.0475 2263 3965 -1701 1701
jun.-17 0.0255 1215 2805 -1590 1590
jul.-17 0.1426 6795 2616 4179 4179
ago.-17 0.0679 3236 3425 -189 189
Sep-17 0.0594 2830 3749 -918 918
oct.-17 0.1409 6714 4287 2427 2427
nov.-17 0.0781 3722 4260 -538 538
dic.-17 0.1307 6228 4422 1806 1806
ene.-18 0.1257 5913 5555 358 358
feb.-18 0.1115 5245 5287 -43 43
mar.-18 0.0248 1167 5795 -4629 4629
abr.-18 0.0637 2996 4108 -1112 1112
may.-18 0.1735 8161 3136 5025 5025
jun.-18 0.0354 1665 4108 -2443 2443
jul.-8 0.1611 7578 4274 3304 3304
ago.-18 0.0354 1665 5802 -4136 4136
Sep-18 0.0637 2996 3636 -640 640
oct.-18 0.0973 4577 4080 497 497
nov.-18 0.0513 2413 3080 -666 666
dic.-18 0.0566 2662 3329 -666 666
ene.-19 0.0447 2078 3217 -1140 1140
feb.-19 0.0592 2751 2384 367 367
mar.-19 0.0216 1004 2497 -1493 1493
abr.-19 0.0981 4559 1944 2615 2615
may.-19 0.1443 6707 2772 3935 3935
jun.-19 0.1025 4764 4090 674 674
jul.-19 0.1342 6237 5343 894 894
ago.-19 0.1414 6572 5903 669 669
Sep-19 0.0505 2347 5858 -3511 3511
oct.-9 0.0924 4295 5052 -758 758
nov.-19 0.0433 2012 4405 -2392 2392
dic.-19 0.0678 3151 2885 266 266
ene.-20 0.0305 1447 3153 -1706 1706
feb.-20 0.0962 4564 2204 2360 2360
mar.-20 0.056 2657 3054 -397 397
 abr.-20 0.1145 5432 2889 2543 2543
may.-20 0.1194 5664 4217 1447 1447
jun.-20 0.1108 5256 4584 672 672
jul.-20 0.0195 925 5451 -4526 4526
ago.-20 0.0999 4739 3949 791 791
Sep-20 0.1121 5318 3640 1678 1678
oct.-20 0.1206 5721 3661 2060 2060
nov.-20 0.0341 1618 5259 -3642 3642
dic.-20 0.0865 4104 4219 -115 115
MAD -ECM 1744
DESVIACION 2179.559779

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21
 Cerdo

Proporción
Err cuadratico Mes por demanda DEMANDA pronostico error
ene.-17 0.0522 1015.7964705
feb.-17 0.0381 741.41466525
mar.-17 0.093 1809.7523325
893186 abr.-17 0.1227 2387.70549675 1189 1199
2893924 may.-17 0.0498 969.0931845 1646 -677
2527995 jun.-17 0.0631 1227.90722775 1722 -494
17464246 jul.-17 0.0631 1227.90722775 1528 -300
35727 ago.-17 0.1204 2342.948181 1142 1201
842876 Sep-17 0.116 2257.32549 1600 658
5890536 oct.-17 0.0843 1640.45292075 1943 -302
289940 nov.-17 0.1181 2298.19086525 2080 218
3261588 dic.-17 0.0792 1541.208438 2065 -524
128371 ene.-18 0.0256 563.258304 1827 -1263
1814 feb.-18 0.049 1078.1115975 1468 -389
21424686 mar.-18 0.1063 2338.84209825 1061 1278
1235870 abr.-18 0.1198 2635.8728445 1327 1309
25254371 may.-18 0.0432 950.498388 2018 -1067
5967816 jun.-18 0.134 2948.305185 1975 973
10914643 jul.-8 0.1149 2528.06168475 2178 350
17109214 ago.-18 0.0726 1597.3653465 2142 -545
409261 Sep-18 0.0704 1548.960336 2358 -809
247058 oct.-18 0.0726 1597.3653465 1891 -294
444077 nov.-18 0.1322 2908.7010855 1581 1327
444077 dic.-18 0.0592 1302.534828 2018 -716
1299465 ene.-19 0.1496 3610.978602 1936 1675
134771 feb.-19 0.0298 719.2992135 2607 -1888
2229751 mar.-19 0.079 1906.8670425 1878 29
6838977 abr.-19 0.158 3813.734085 2079 1735
15485088 may.-19 0.0718 1733.0766285 2147 -414
454177 jun.-19 0.0774 1868.2469505 2485 -616
799094 jul.-19 0.0284 685.506633 2472 -1786
447934 ago.-19 0.0478 1153.7752485 1429 -275
12324407 Sep-19 0.048 1158.60276 1236 -77
573937 oct.-9 0.1441 3478.22203575 999 2479
5721907 nov.-19 0.1236 2983.402107 1930 1053
71007 dic.-19 0.0424 1023.432438 2540 -1517
2909878 ene.-20 0.0241 628.18017675 2495 -1867
5570257 feb.-20 0.1408 3670.031904 1545 2125
157859 mar.-20 0.0566 1475.3111205 1774 -299
 6465564 abr.-20 0.1548 4034.949849 1925 2110
2093517 may.-20 0.0504 1313.704602 3060 -1746
451661 jun.-20 0.1527 3980.21215725 2275 1706
20482057 jul.-20 0.0805 2098.27818375 3110 -1011
625136 ago.-20 0.0791 2061.78638925 2464 -402
2814914 Sep-20 0.1371 3573.58930425 2713 860
4245444 oct.-20 0.0791 2061.78638925 2578 -516
13262402 nov.-20 0.0704 1835.015952 2566 -731
13325 dic.-20 0.1149 2994.93370575 2490 505
4958973 MAD - ECM
2226.875265323 DESVIACION

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21
 Pollo

Err absoluto Err cuadratico MesProporción por demandaDEMANDA pronostico

ene.-17 0.0347 2631.75288075
feb.-17 0.0463 3511.53194175
mar.-17 0.0602 4565.7499545
1199 1436924 abr.-17 0.0694 5263.5057615 3570
677 458597 may.-17 0.081 6143.2848225 4447
494 244309 jun.-17 0.088 6674.18598 5324
300 90197 jul.-17 0.0926 7023.0638835 6027
1201 1443151 ago.-17 0.0995 7546.38073875 6614
658 432619 Sep-17 0.0972 7371.941787 7081
302 91370 oct.-17 0.1088 8251.720848 7314
218 47502 nov.-17 0.1157 8775.03770325 7723
524 274696 dic.-17 0.1065 8077.28189625 8133
1263 1596076 ene.-18 0.0713 5680.00380675 8368
389 151664 feb.-18 0.0772 6150.018147 7511
1278 1633240 mar.-18 0.0846 6739.5276585 6636
1309 1713836 abr.-18 0.0861 6859.02282975 6190
1067 1138725 may.-18 0.0817 6508.50366075 6583
973 947185 jun.-18 0.0861 6859.02282975 6702
350 122385 jul.-8 0.0891 7098.01317225 6742
545 296941 ago.-18 0.0757 6030.52297575 6822
809 654401 Sep-18 0.0802 6389.0084895 6663
294 86493 oct.-18 0.0854 6803.2584165 6506
1327 1762179 nov.-18 0.0891 7098.01317225 6408
716 512380 dic.-18 0.0935 7448.53234125 6763
1675 2804882 ene.-19 0.0729 6139.98445725 7117
1888 3564943 feb.-19 0.0776 6535.840794 6896
29 856 mar.-19 0.0752 6333.701388 6708
1735 3009135 abr.-19 0.0799 6729.55772475 6337
414 171029 may.-19 0.0823 6931.69713075 6533
616 379841 jun.-19 0.0834 7024.3443585 6665
1786 3190436 jul.-19 0.0858 7226.4837645 6895
275 75718 ago.-19 0.0846 7125.4140615 7061
77 5966 Sep-19 0.0893 7521.27039825 7125
2479 6145080 oct.-9 0.0905 7622.34010125 7291
1053 1109235 nov.-19 0.0905 7622.34010125 7423
1517 2300207 dic.-19 0.0881 7420.20069525 7589
1867 3485087 ene.-20 0.0705 6211.1638575 7555
2125 4515740 feb.-20 0.0723 6369.7467645 7085
299 89144 mar.-20 0.0796 7012.888554 6667
 2110 4453966 abr.-20 0.0814 7171.471461 6531
1746 3049889 may.-20 0.0832 7330.054368 6851
1706 2908925 jun.-20 0.0814 7171.471461 7171
1011 1022817 jul.-20 0.085 7488.637275 7224
402 161828 ago.-20 0.085 7488.637275 7330
860 739882 Sep-20 0.0868 7647.220182 7383
516 266357 oct.-20 0.0895 7885.0945425 7541
731 533929 nov.-20 0.0904 7964.385996 7674
505 254826 dic.-20 0.0949 8360.8432635 7832
963 1319435
1203.264928 1148.666719

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500
un-20 Jan-21 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
error Err absoluto Err cuadratico

1694 1694 2869052

1696 1696 2877622
1350 1350 1822516
996 996 992159
933 933 870245
291 291 84525
938 938 879704
1052 1052 1106052
-56 56 3093
-2688 2688 7225396
-1361 1361 1851658
104 104 10766
669 669 447792
-74 74 5528
157 157 24546
356 356 126615
-791 791 626193
-274 274 74808
297 297 88453
690 690 476675
685 685 469370
-977 977 953780
-360 360 129362
-374 374 140189
393 393 154487
399 399 158933
359 359 129139
331 331 109749
65 65 4170
396 396 156702
331 331 109749
199 199 39733
-168 168 28375
-1344 1344 1805789
-715 715 510970
346 346 119613
 640 640 409863
479 479 229140
0 0 0
264 264 69857
159 159 25149
264 264 69857
344 344 118058
291 291 84527
529 529 279428
MAD - ECM 597 639320
DESVIACION 746.5961697 799.5747045

19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21

 RES

Proporción
por
Mes demanda DEMANDA pronostico error Err absoluto Err cuadratico
ene.-17 0.0577 2749 α
feb.-17 0.1205 5742
mar.-17 0.0374 1782
abr.-17 0.0917 4370 3425 945 945.085356 893186.331
may.-17 0.0475 2263 3661 -1397.37621 1397.37621 1952660.26
jun.-17 0.0255 1215 3311 -2096.36213 2096.36213 4394734.18
jul.-17 0.1426 6795 2787 4007.70295 4007.70295 16061683
ago.-17 0.0679 3236 3789 -553.779565 553.779565 306671.806
Sep-17 0.0594 2830 3651 -820.371255 820.371255 673008.996
oct.-17 0.1409 6714 3446 3268.3076 3268.3076 10681834.6
nov.-17 0.0781 3722 4263 -541.274863 541.274863 292978.477
dic.-17 0.1307 6228 4128 2100.50552 2100.50552 4412123.44
ene.-18 0.1257 5913 4653 1260.19487 1260.19487 1588091.11
feb.-18 0.1115 5245 4968 277.187099 277.187099 76832.6878
mar.-18 0.0248 1167 5037 -3870.42305 3870.42305 14980174.6
abr.-18 0.0637 2996 4069 -1072.9858 1072.9858 1151298.52
may.-18 0.1735 8161 3801 4360.18348 4360.18348 19011200
jun.-18 0.0354 1665 4891 -3225.99939 3225.99939 10407072.1
jul.-8 0.1611 7578 4085 3493.34927 3493.34927 12203489.1
ago.-18 0.0354 1665 4958 -3292.83686 3292.83686 10842774.6
Sep-18 0.0637 2996 4135 -1138.41347 1138.41347 1295985.24
oct.-18 0.0973 4577 3850 726.712727 726.712727 528111.388 6000
nov.-18 0.0513 2413 4032 -1618.77647 1618.77647 2620437.27
dic.-18 0.0566 2662 3627 -964.773695 964.773695 930788.282 5000
ene.-19 0.0447 2078 3386 -1308.45665 1308.45665 1712058.81
feb.-19 0.0592 2751 3059 -307.416238 307.416238 94504.7434 4000
mar.-19 0.0216 1004 2982 -1978.12266 1978.12266 3912969.28
abr.-19 0.0981 4559 2488 2071.94995 2071.94995 4292976.59 3000
may.-19 0.1443 6707 3005 3701.23093 3701.23093 13699110.4
jun.-19 0.1025 4764 3931 833.156487 833.156487 694149.732 2000
jul.-19 0.1342 6237 4139 2098.20958 2098.20958 4402483.46
ago.-19 0.1414 6572 4664 1908.29643 1908.29643 3641595.26 1000
Sep-19 0.0505 2347 5141 -2793.59811 2793.59811 7804190.39
oct.-9 0.0924 4295 4442 -147.784103 147.784103 21840.1412 0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18
nov.-19 0.0433 2012 4405 -2392.8918 2392.8918 5725931.15
dic.-19 0.0678 3151 3807 -655.965872 655.965872 430291.225
ene.-20 0.0305 1447 3643 -2196.26149 2196.26149 4823564.54
feb.-20 0.0962 4564 3094 1469.56688 1469.56688 2159626.81
mar.-20 0.056 2657 3461 -804.885305 804.885305 647840.355
abr.-20 0.1145 5432 3260 2171.53595 2171.53595 4715568.38
may.-20 0.1194 5664 3803 1861.1046 1861.1046 3463710.35
jun.-20 0.1108 5256 4268 987.850345 987.850345 975848.303
jul.-20 0.0195 925 4515 -3590.3217 3590.3217 12890409.9
ago.-20 0.0999 4739 3618 1121.37965 1121.37965 1257492.32
Sep-20 0.1121 5318 3898 1419.79438 1419.79438 2015816.08
oct.-20 0.1206 5721 4253 1468.07996 1468.07996 2155258.78
nov.-20 0.0341 1618 4620 -3002.44078 3002.44078 9014650.61
dic.-20 0.0865 4104 3870 233.989525 233.989525 54751.0976
MAD - ECM 1812.37536 4575817.21
DESVIACION 2265.46919 2139.11599
 0.25

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21
 CERDO
Mes Proporción p DEMANDA pronostico error Err absoluto Err cuadratico
ene.-17 0.0522 1015.79647
feb.-17 0.0381 741.414665 α
mar.-17 0.093 1809.75233
abr.-17 0.1227 2387.7055 1188.98782 1198.71767 1198.71767 1436924.06 4000
may.-17 0.0498 969.093185 1488.66724 -519.574057 519.574057 269957.2
3500
jun.-17 0.0631 1227.90723 1358.77373 -130.866499 130.866499 17126.0406
jul.-17 0.0631 1227.90723 1326.0571 -98.1498745 98.1498745 9633.39786 3000
ago.-17 0.1204 2342.94818 1301.51963 1041.42855 1041.42855 1084573.42
2500
Sep-17 0.116 2257.32549 1561.87677 695.44872 695.44872 483648.922
oct.-17 0.0843 1640.45292 1735.73895 -95.2860296 95.2860296 9079.42744 2000
nov.-17 0.1181 2298.19087 1711.91744 586.273422 586.273422 343716.526
dic.-17 0.0792 1541.20844 1858.4858 -317.277361 317.277361 100664.923 1500
ene.-18 0.0256 563.258304 1779.16646 -1215.90815 1215.90815 1478432.64
1000
feb.-18 0.049 1078.1116 1475.18942 -397.077822 397.077822 157670.797
mar.-18 0.1063 2338.8421 1375.91996 962.922134 962.922134 927219.036 500
abr.-18 0.1198 2635.87284 1616.6505 1019.22235 1019.22235 1038814.19
0
may.-18 0.0432 950.498388 1871.45608 -920.957696 920.957696 848163.079 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-1
jun.-18 0.134 2948.30519 1641.21666 1307.08852 1307.08852 1708480.41
jul.-8 0.1149 2528.06168 1967.98879 560.072893 560.072893 313681.646
ago.-18 0.0726 1597.36535 2108.00701 -510.641668 510.641668 260754.913
Sep-18 0.0704 1548.96034 1980.3466 -431.386262 431.386262 186094.107
oct.-18 0.0726 1597.36535 1872.50003 -275.134686 275.134686 75699.0953
nov.-18 0.1322 2908.70109 1803.71636 1104.98472 1104.98472 1220991.24
dic.-18 0.0592 1302.53483 2079.96254 -777.427714 777.427714 604393.851
ene.-19 0.1496 3610.9786 1885.60561 1725.37299 1725.37299 2976911.95
feb.-19 0.0298 719.299214 2316.94886 -1597.64965 1597.64965 2552484.39
mar.-19 0.079 1906.86704 1917.53645 -10.6694063 10.6694063 113.836232
abr.-19 0.158 3813.73409 1914.8691 1898.86499 1898.86499 3605688.24
may.-19 0.0718 1733.07663 2389.58534 -656.508716 656.508716 431003.694
jun.-19 0.0774 1868.24695 2225.45817 -357.211215 357.211215 127599.852
jul.-19 0.0284 685.506633 2136.15536 -1450.64873 1450.64873 2104381.73
ago.-19 0.0478 1153.77525 1773.49318 -619.717931 619.717931 384050.314
Sep-19 0.048 1158.60276 1618.5637 -459.960937 459.960937 211564.063
oct.-9 0.1441 3478.22204 1503.57346 1974.64857 1974.64857 3899236.99
nov.-19 0.1236 2983.40211 1997.23561 986.166501 986.166501 972524.368
dic.-19 0.0424 1023.43244 2243.77723 -1220.34479 1220.34479 1489241.41
ene.-20 0.0241 628.180177 1938.69103 -1310.51086 1310.51086 1717438.7
feb.-20 0.1408 3670.0319 1611.06332 2058.96859 2058.96859 4239351.63
mar.-20 0.0566 1475.31112 2125.80547 -650.494345 650.494345 423142.892
abr.-20 0.1548 4034.94985 1963.18188 2071.76797 2071.76797 4292222.52
may.-20 0.0504 1313.7046 2481.12387 -1167.41927 1167.41927 1362867.75
jun.-20 0.1527 3980.21216 2189.26905 1790.9431 1790.9431 3207477.2
jul.-20 0.0805 2098.27818 2637.00483 -538.726646 538.726646 290226.399
ago.-20 0.0791 2061.78639 2502.32317 -440.536779 440.536779 194072.654
Sep-20 0.1371 3573.5893 2392.18897 1181.40033 1181.40033 1395706.74
oct.-20 0.0791 2061.78639 2687.53906 -625.752667 625.752667 391566.4
nov.-20 0.0704 1835.01595 2531.10089 -696.084937 696.084937 484534.24
dic.-20 0.1149 2994.93371 2357.07966 637.854051 637.854051 406857.79
MAD - ECM 895.423795 1105244.1
DESVIACION 1119.27974 1051.3059
 0.25

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21
 POLLO
MesProporción por demanda
DEMANDA pronostico error Err absoluto Err cuadratico
ene.-17 0.0347 2631.75288
feb.-17 0.0463 3511.53194 α
mar.-17 0.0602 4565.74995 8000
abr.-17 0.0694 5263.50576 3569.67826 1693.8275 1693.8275 2869051.61
may.-17 0.081 6143.28482 3993.13513 2150.14969 2150.14969 4623143.68
jun.-17 0.088 6674.18598 4530.67256 2143.51342 2143.51342 4594649.8 7500

jul.-17 0.0926 7023.06388 5066.55091 1956.51297 1956.51297 3827943.01

ago.-17 0.0995 7546.38074 5555.67916 1990.70158 1990.70158 3962892.79
7000
Sep-17 0.0972 7371.94179 6053.35455 1318.58724 1318.58724 1738672.3
oct.-17 0.1088 8251.72085 6383.00136 1868.71949 1868.71949 3492112.52
nov.-17 0.1157 8775.0377 6850.18123 1924.85647 1924.85647 3705072.43 6500
dic.-17 0.1065 8077.2819 7331.39535 745.886546 745.886546 556346.74
ene.-18 0.0713 5680.00381 7517.86699 -1837.86318 1837.86318 3377741.07
6000
feb.-18 0.0772 6150.01815 7058.40119 -908.383045 908.383045 825159.756
mar.-18 0.0846 6739.52766 6831.30543 -91.7777719 91.7777719 8423.15941
abr.-18 0.0861 6859.02283 6808.36099 50.6618423 50.6618423 2566.62227 5500
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-
may.-18 0.0817 6508.50366 6821.02645 -312.522787 312.522787 97670.4926
jun.-18 0.0861 6859.02283 6742.89575 116.127079 116.127079 13485.4984
jul.-8 0.0891 7098.01317 6771.92752 326.085651 326.085651 106331.852
ago.-18 0.0757 6030.52298 6853.44893 -822.925958 822.925958 677207.132
Sep-18 0.0802 6389.00849 6647.71744 -258.708955 258.708955 66930.3232
oct.-18 0.0854 6803.25842 6583.04021 220.218211 220.218211 48496.0604
nov.-18 0.0891 7098.01317 6638.09476 459.918414 459.918414 211524.948
dic.-18 0.0935 7448.53234 6753.07436 695.457979 695.457979 483661.801
ene.-19 0.0729 6139.98446 6926.93886 -786.954399 786.954399 619297.227
feb.-19 0.0776 6535.84079 6730.20026 -194.359463 194.359463 37775.6008
mar.-19 0.0752 6333.70139 6681.61039 -347.909003 347.909003 121040.674
abr.-19 0.0799 6729.55772 6594.63314 134.924584 134.924584 18204.6435
may.-19 0.0823 6931.69713 6628.36429 303.332844 303.332844 92010.8144
jun.-19 0.0834 7024.34436 6704.1975 320.146861 320.146861 102494.013
jul.-19 0.0858 7226.48376 6784.23421 442.249552 442.249552 195584.666
ago.-19 0.0846 7125.41406 6894.7966 230.617461 230.617461 53184.4132
Sep-19 0.0893 7521.2704 6952.45097 568.819432 568.819432 323555.547
oct.-9 0.0905 7622.3401 7094.65582 527.684277 527.684277 278450.696
nov.-19 0.0905 7622.3401 7226.57689 395.763208 395.763208 156628.517
dic.-19 0.0881 7420.2007 7325.5177 94.683 94.683 8964.87048
ene.-20 0.0705 6211.16386 7349.18845 -1138.02459 1138.02459 1295099.96
feb.-20 0.0723 6369.74676 7064.6823 -694.935534 694.935534 482935.396
mar.-20 0.0796 7012.88855 6890.94841 121.940139 121.940139 14869.3975
abr.-20 0.0814 7171.47146 6921.43345 250.038011 250.038011 62519.0071
may.-20 0.0832 7330.05437 6983.94295 346.111416 346.111416 119793.112
jun.-20 0.0814 7171.47146 7070.47081 101.000655 101.000655 10201.1322
jul.-20 0.085 7488.63728 7095.72097 392.916305 392.916305 154383.223
ago.-20 0.085 7488.63728 7193.95005 294.687229 294.687229 86840.5628
Sep-20 0.0868 7647.22018 7267.62185 379.598329 379.598329 144094.891
oct.-20 0.0895 7885.09454 7362.52144 522.573107 522.573107 273082.652
nov.-20 0.0904 7964.386 7493.16471 471.221284 471.221284 222049.498
dic.-20 0.0949 8360.84326 7610.97003 749.87323 749.87323 562309.861
MAD - ECM 704.528215 904987.866
DESVIACION 880.660269 951.308502
 0.25
8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500
Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jan-21
 Proporción
por
Mes demanda DEMANDA ST ST2 PRONOSTICOE. ABS E. CUADRAT
ene.-17 0.0577 2749
feb.-17 0.1205 5742
mar.-17 0.0374 1782 4391.9 5842.88
abr.-17 0.0917 4370 4386.33249 5478.74312 2457.26 1912.36994 3657158.79
may.-17 0.0475 2263 3855.60929 5072.95966 2929.78497 666.345252 444015.995
jun.-17 0.0255 1215 3195.48441 4603.59085 2232.47547 1017.36572 1035033.01
jul.-17 0.1426 6795 4095.38438 4476.53923 1318.00915 5477.07514 29998352.1
ago.-17 0.0679 3236 3880.42016 4327.50946 3587.17791 351.650392 123657.998
Sep-17 0.0594 2830 3617.93785 4150.11656 3284.30109 453.810159 205943.661
oct.-17 0.1409 6714 4391.97263 4210.58058 2908.36624 3805.71073 14483434.2
nov.-17 0.0781 3722 4224.37233 4214.02852 4633.82871 912.257297 832213.375
dic.-17 0.1307 6228 4725.28752 4341.84327 4238.16408 1989.869 3959578.64
ene.-18 0.1257 5913 5022.17784 4511.92691 5236.54652 676.302293 457384.792
feb.-18 0.1115 5245 5077.85582 4653.40914 5702.51241 457.622657 209418.496
mar.-18 0.0248 1167 4100.03596 4515.06584 5643.78473 4477.20835 20045394.6
abr.-18 0.0637 2996 3824.12894 4342.33162 3546.66278 550.254909 302780.465
may.-18 0.1735 8161 4908.42938 4483.85606 3133.19203 5028.13867 25282178.4
jun.-18 0.0354 1665 4097.62046 4387.29716 5474.52714 3809.33344 14511021.2
jul.-8 0.1611 7578 4967.72597 4532.40436 3711.38486 3866.65765 14951041.4
ago.-18 0.0354 1665 4142.0929 4434.82649 5548.15478 3882.96108 15077386.8
Sep-18 0.0637 2996 3855.67164 4290.03778 3751.78144 755.373574 570589.237
oct.-18 0.0973 4577 4035.98641 4226.52494 3276.51679 1300.41391 1691076.34
nov.-18 0.0513 2413 3630.26973 4077.46114 3781.93503 1368.81535 1873655.47
dic.-18 0.0566 2662 3388.30938 3905.1732 3034.01451 371.586172 138076.283
ene.-19 0.0447 2078 3060.62003 3694.0349 2699.15762 621.605664 386393.602
feb.-19 0.0592 2751 2983.33457 3516.35982 2216.06685 535.411358 286665.322
mar.-19 0.0216 1004 2488.48036 3259.38996 2272.63424 1268.71651 1609641.59
abr.-19 0.0981 4559 3006.22519 3196.09876 1460.6009 3098.85877 9602925.69
may.-19 0.1443 6707 3931.35093 3379.9118 2753.06042 3953.66772 15631488.4
jun.-19 0.1025 4764 4139.50355 3569.80974 4666.60309 97.3583416 9478.64668
jul.-19 0.1342 6237 4663.95358 3843.3457 4899.0953 1338.20835 1790801.58
ago.-19 0.1414 6572 5140.95091 4167.747 5758.09741 813.845479 662344.464
Sep-19 0.0505 2347 4442.49379 4236.4337 6438.55611 4091.43365 16739829.3
oct.-9 0.0924 4295 4405.50458 4278.70142 4717.24059 422.703648 178678.374
nov.-19 0.0433 2012 3807.24924 4160.83838 4574.57546 2562.09224 6564316.66
dic.-19 0.0678 3151 3643.23348 4031.43715 3335.79706 184.610865 34081.1715
ene.-20 0.0305 1447 3094.14989 3797.11533 3125.62858 1678.72948 2818132.65
feb.-20 0.0962 4564 3461.52794 3713.21849 2156.86262 2406.79948 5792683.75
mar.-20 0.056 2657 3260.29637 3599.98796 3125.94055 469.338906 220279.009
abr.-20 0.1145 5432 3803.17267 3650.78413 2807.37424 2624.42732 6887618.77
may.-20 0.1194 5664 4268.44305 3805.19886 4006.35738 1657.89684 2748621.92
jun.-20 0.1108 5256 4515.40131 3982.74948 4886.10197 370.174131 137028.887
jul.-20 0.0195 925 3617.81765 3891.51652 5225.60377 4300.53712 18494619.6
ago.-20 0.0999 4739 3898.16013 3893.17742 3252.88582 1486.30175 2209092.9
Sep-20 0.1121 5318 4253.1069 3983.15979 3904.80374 1413.14348 1996974.48
oct.-20 0.1206 5721 4620.12552 4142.40122 4613.03638 1108.14501 1227985.37
nov.-20 0.0341 1618 3869.5143 4074.17949 5257.09125 3639.41061 13245309.6
dic.-20 0.0865 4104 3928.01091 4037.63735 3596.62738 506.873368 256920.611
MAD YECM 1861.80915 5764028.97
DESVIACION 2327 2400.83922
 m 3
a 4391.9
b2 -483.66
b1 2940.92
α 0.25

Chart Title
7000

6000

5000

4000
f(x) = − 483.661329375 x + 4391.86724375
3000

2000

1000

0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
 CERDO
Mes Proporción por dema DEMANDA ST ST2 PRONOSTICOE. ABS
ene.-17 0.0522 1015.79647
feb.-17 0.0381 741.414665
mar.-17 0.093 1809.75233 395.03 -795.91
abr.-17 0.1227 2387.7055 893.198874 -373.632781 1982.95 404.755497
may.-17 0.0498 969.093185 912.172452 -52.1814731 2582.30775 1613.21456
jun.-17 0.0631 1227.90723 991.106146 208.640432 2197.97768 970.070457
jul.-17 0.0631 1227.90723 1050.30642 419.056928 2034.39376 806.486537
ago.-17 0.1204 2342.94818 1373.46686 657.65941 1891.9724 450.97578
Sep-17 0.116 2257.32549 1594.43152 891.852437 2327.87679 70.5512971
oct.-17 0.0843 1640.45292 1605.93687 1070.37354 2531.20362 890.7507
nov.-17 0.1181 2298.19087 1779.00037 1247.53025 2320.0213 21.830432
dic.-17 0.0792 1541.20844 1719.55238 1365.53578 2487.62719 946.418751
ene.-18 0.0256 563.258304 1430.47886 1381.77155 2191.57452 1628.31622
feb.-18 0.049 1078.1116 1342.38705 1371.92543 1495.42195 417.310348
mar.-18 0.1063 2338.8421 1591.50081 1426.81927 1303.00254 1035.83956
abr.-18 0.1198 2635.87284 1852.59382 1533.26291 1811.07619 824.796651
may.-18 0.0432 950.498388 1627.06996 1556.71467 2278.36836 1327.86998
jun.-18 0.134 2948.30519 1957.37877 1656.8807 1720.87701 1227.42817
jul.-8 0.1149 2528.06168 2100.0495 1767.6729 2358.04286 170.018823
ago.-18 0.0726 1597.36535 1974.37846 1819.34929 2543.2183 945.852951
Sep-18 0.0704 1548.96034 1868.02393 1831.51795 2181.08402 632.123686
oct.-18 0.0726 1597.36535 1800.35928 1823.72828 1916.69857 319.333223
nov.-18 0.1322 2908.70109 2077.44473 1887.15739 1769.20062 1139.50047
dic.-18 0.0592 1302.53483 1883.71726 1886.29736 2331.16119 1028.62636
ene.-19 0.1496 3610.9786 2315.53259 1993.60617 1880.27712 1730.70148
feb.-19 0.0298 719.299214 1916.47425 1974.32319 2744.76783 2025.46861
mar.-19 0.079 1906.86704 1914.07245 1959.2605 1839.34233 67.524714
abr.-19 0.158 3813.73409 2388.98786 2066.69234 1853.82171 1959.91238
may.-19 0.0718 1733.07663 2225.01005 2106.27177 2818.71521 1085.63858
jun.-19 0.0774 1868.24695 2135.81927 2113.65864 2383.32776 515.080807
jul.-19 0.0284 685.506633 1773.24111 2028.55426 2165.36678 1479.86015
ago.-19 0.0478 1153.77525 1618.37465 1926.00936 1432.82358 279.048335
Sep-19 0.048 1158.60276 1503.43168 1820.36494 1208.19503 49.5922734
oct.-9 0.1441 3478.22204 1997.12927 1864.55602 1080.85399 2397.36804
nov.-19 0.1236 2983.40211 2243.69748 1959.34138 2173.89359 809.508513
dic.-19 0.0424 1023.43244 1938.63122 1954.16384 2622.83893 1599.40649
ene.-20 0.0241 628.180177 1611.01846 1868.3775 1917.92105 1289.74087
feb.-20 0.1408 3670.0319 2125.77182 1932.72608 1267.87307 2402.15883
mar.-20 0.0566 1475.31112 1963.15664 1940.33372 2383.16614 907.855021
abr.-20 0.1548 4034.94985 2481.10495 2075.52653 1993.58721 2041.36264
may.-20 0.0504 1313.7046 2189.25486 2103.95861 3021.87617 1708.17157
jun.-20 0.1527 3980.21216 2636.99418 2237.2175 2302.98319 1677.22896
jul.-20 0.0805 2098.27818 2502.31518 2303.49192 3170.02976 1071.75158
ago.-20 0.0791 2061.78639 2392.18299 2325.66469 2767.41287 705.626476
Sep-20 0.1371 3573.5893 2687.53456 2416.13216 2480.87405 1092.71526
oct.-20 0.0791 2061.78639 2531.09752 2444.8735 3049.40444 987.618052
nov.-20 0.0704 1835.01595 2357.07713 2422.92441 2646.06288 811.046933
dic.-20 0.1149 2994.93371 2516.54127 2446.32862 2269.28076 725.652947
MAD YECM 1028.71355
DESVIACIÓN 1285.89194
E. CUADRAT
m 3
a 395.03
b2 396.98
163827.012 b1 1585.97
2602461.23 α 0.25
941036.692
650420.534
Chart Title
203379.154
4977.48553 2000

793436.81 1800

476.56776 1600
f(x) = 396.977931 x + 395.03196075
895708.452 1400
2651413.7 1200
174147.926 1000
1072963.59 800
680289.516 600
1763238.68
400
1506579.92
200
28906.4001
0
894637.804 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
399580.354
101973.707
1298461.31
1058072.18
2995327.62
4102523.1
4559.587
3841256.54
1178611.13
265308.238
2189986.06
77867.9733
2459.39358
5747373.53
655304.033
2558101.13
1663431.52
5770367.06
824200.739
4167161.42
2917850.11
 2813097
1148651.44
497908.724
1194026.63
975389.417
657797.127
526572.199
1436913.79
1198.71339
 POLLO
MesProporción por demanda
DEMANDA ST ST2 PRONOSTICOE. ABS E. CUADRAT
ene.-17 0.0347 2631.75288
feb.-17 0.0463 3511.53194
mar.-17 0.0602 4565.74995 1635.7 -1265.3
abr.-17 0.0694 5263.50576 2542.65144 -313.31214 5503.7 240.194239 57693.2722
may.-17 0.081 6143.28482 3442.80979 625.718342 6350.60288 207.318058 42980.7773
jun.-17 0.088 6674.18598 4250.65383 1531.95221 7198.93171 524.745732 275358.083
jul.-17 0.0926 7023.06388 4943.75635 2384.90325 7875.58933 852.525444 726799.632
ago.-17 0.0995 7546.38074 5594.41244 3187.28055 8355.56048 809.17974 654771.851
Sep-17 0.0972 7371.94179 6038.79478 3900.15911 8803.92164 1431.97985 2050566.3
oct.-17 0.1088 8251.72085 6592.0263 4573.1259 8890.30901 638.588166 407794.845
nov.-17 0.1157 8775.0377 7137.77915 5214.28921 9283.89349 508.855786 258934.211
dic.-17 0.1065 8077.2819 7372.65484 5753.88062 9702.43239 1625.1505 2641114.14
ene.-18 0.0713 5680.00381 6949.49208 6052.78348 9531.02046 3851.01665 14830329.2
feb.-18 0.0772 6150.01815 6749.6236 6226.99351 8145.10354 1995.08539 3980365.71
mar.-18 0.0846 6739.52766 6747.09961 6357.02004 7446.46371 706.936048 499758.576
abr.-18 0.0861 6859.02283 6775.08042 6461.53513 7267.20571 408.182881 166613.264
may.-18 0.0817 6508.50366 6708.43623 6523.26041 7193.14079 684.637134 468728.005
jun.-18 0.0861 6859.02283 6746.08288 6578.96602 6955.33732 96.3144927 9276.48151
jul.-8 0.0891 7098.01317 6834.06545 6642.74088 6968.90535 129.107822 16668.8298
ago.-18 0.0757 6030.52298 6633.17983 6640.35062 7089.16488 1058.6419 1120722.68
Sep-18 0.0802 6389.00849 6572.137 6623.29721 6623.61878 234.610295 55041.9905
oct.-18 0.0854 6803.25842 6629.91735 6624.95225 6503.92337 299.335042 89601.4671
nov.-18 0.0891 7098.01317 6746.94131 6655.44951 6636.53749 461.475682 212959.805
dic.-18 0.0935 7448.53234 6922.33907 6722.1719 6868.93037 579.601975 335938.45
ene.-19 0.0729 6139.98446 6726.75041 6723.31653 7189.22862 1049.24416 1100913.31
feb.-19 0.0776 6535.84079 6679.02301 6712.24315 6731.32893 195.488132 38215.6098
mar.-19 0.0752 6333.70139 6592.6926 6682.35551 6634.72949 301.0281 90617.9171
abr.-19 0.0799 6729.55772 6626.90888 6668.49386 6473.14206 256.415667 65748.9942
may.-19 0.0823 6931.69713 6703.10595 6677.14688 6571.46226 360.234876 129769.166
jun.-19 0.0834 7024.34436 6783.41555 6703.71405 6737.71804 286.626323 82154.6489
jul.-19 0.0858 7226.48376 6894.1826 6751.33118 6889.68422 336.799545 113433.933
ago.-19 0.0846 7125.41406 6951.99047 6801.49601 7084.65116 40.7629017 1661.61415
Sep-19 0.0893 7521.2704 7094.31045 6874.69962 7152.64975 368.620648 135881.182
oct.-9 0.0905 7622.3401 7226.31786 6962.60418 7387.12489 235.215207 55326.1934
nov.-19 0.0905 7622.3401 7325.32342 7053.28399 7577.93611 44.4039921 1971.71451
dic.-19 0.0881 7420.2007 7349.04274 7127.22368 7688.04267 267.841972 71739.3217
ene.-20 0.0705 6211.16386 7064.57302 7111.56101 7644.80149 1433.63763 2055316.87
feb.-20 0.0723 6369.74676 6890.86646 7056.38737 7001.92236 632.175598 399645.987
mar.-20 0.0796 7012.88855 6921.37198 7022.63353 6670.1719 342.716655 117454.705
abr.-20 0.0814 7171.47146 6983.89685 7012.94936 6786.35659 385.114874 148313.466
may.-20 0.0832 7330.05437 7070.43623 7027.32107 6945.16018 384.894192 148143.539
jun.-20 0.0814 7171.47146 7095.69504 7044.41457 7127.9231 43.5483577 1896.45946
jul.-20 0.085 7488.63728 7193.9306 7081.79357 7164.069 324.568275 105344.565
ago.-20 0.085 7488.63728 7267.60727 7128.247 7343.44663 145.190647 21080.3239
Sep-20 0.0868 7647.22018 7362.5105 7186.81287 7453.42096 193.799222 37558.1386
oct.-20 0.0895 7885.09454 7493.15651 7263.39878 7596.77399 288.320548 83128.7387
nov.-20 0.0904 7964.386 7610.96388 7350.29006 7799.50014 164.885853 27187.3445
dic.-20 0.0949 8360.84326 7798.43373 7462.32597 7958.52898 402.314285 161856.784
MAD YECM 573.940678 757697.292
DESVIACIÓN 717.425847 870.458093
m 3
a 1635.7
b2 967
b1 4536.7
α 0.25

Chart Title
5000
4500
f(x) = 966.998536874999 x + 1635.68118525
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5