PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE

3 5 7 3

Semana Demanda F* F* F* |Dt - F*| MAD

1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1066.67
5 1500 1300.00
6 1300 1333.33 1240
7 1800 1433.33 1340
8 1700 1533.33 1420 1328.57 166.67
9 1300 1600.00 1560 1457.14 300.00
10 1700 1600.00 1520 1442.86 100.00
11 1700 1566.67 1560 1542.86 133.33
12 1500 1566.67 1640 1571.43 66.67
13 2300 1633.33 1580 1571.43 666.67
14 2300 1833.33 1700 1714.29 466.67
15 2000 2033.33 1900 1785.71 33.33
16 2200.00 2200.00 241.67

3 5 7 3

Semana Demanda F* F* F* |Dt - F*| MAD

1 100
2 125
3 90
4 110 105
5 105 108.33
6 130 101.67 106
7 85 115.00 112
8 102 106.67 104 106.43 4.67
9 110 105.67 106.4 106.71 4.33
10 90 99.00 106.4 104.57 9.00
11 105 100.67 103.4 104.57 4.33
12 95 101.67 98.4 103.86 6.67
13 115 96.67 100.4 102.43 18.33
14 120 105.00 103 100.29 15.00
15 80 110.00 105 105.29 30.00
16 95 105.00 103 102.14 10.00
17 100 98.33 101 100.00 1.67
18 102 102 10.40
Periodos Demanda
Mensuales (D) 2 3 4 MAD 2
Enero 30
Febrero 35
Marzo 28 32.5
Abril 20 31.5 31
Mayo 25 24 27.67 28.25 1
Junio 30 22.5 24.33 27 7.5
Julio 35 27.5 25 25.75 7.5
Agosto 40 32.5 30 27.5 7.5
Septiembre 50 37.5 35 32.5 12.5
Octubre 45 45 7.2

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE n=3 at bt

SEM DEMAND Mt Mt' 2*Mt - Mt' 2*(Mt - Mt')/(n-1)

1 654
2 658
3 665
4 672 659
5 673 665
6 671 670 664.67 675.33 5.33
7 693 672 669.00 675.00 3.00
8 694 679 673.67 684.33 5.33
9 701 686 679.00 693.00 7.00
10 703 696 687.00 705.00 9.00
11 702 699 693.78 704.89 5.56
12 710 702 699.11 704.89 2.89
13 712 705 702.11 707.89 2.89
14 711 708 705.00 711.00 3.00
15 728 711 708.00 714.00 3.00
16
17
18
19

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE

Sem Demanda Mt Mt' at bt
1 1140
2 1212
3 1274
4 1297
 5 1317
6 1370 1248
7 1348 1294
8 1436 1321.2
9 1433 1353.6
10 1461 1380.8 1319.52 1442.08 30.64
11 1509 1409.6 1351.84 1467.36 28.8799999999999
12 1510 1437.4 1380.52 1494.28 28.4400000000001
13 1546 1469.8 1410.24 1529.36 29.7800000000001
14 1541 1491.8 1437.88 1545.72 26.9599999999999
15 1494 1513.4 1464.4 1562.4 24.5
16 1545 1520 1486.48 1553.52 16.76
17 1552 1527.2 1504.44 1549.96 11.38
18 1568 1535.6 1517.6 1553.6 8.99999999999989
19 1605 1540 1527.24 1552.76 6.38000000000011
20 1621 1552.8 1535.12 1570.48 8.83999999999992
21 1647 1578.2 1546.76 1609.64 15.7200000000001
22 1728 1598.6 1561.04 1636.16 18.7799999999999
23 1730 1633.8 1580.68 1686.92 26.5599999999999
24 1766 1666.2 1605.92 1726.48 30.14
25
26
27
28

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

MES DEMANDA Factor
1 100 0.1
2 90 0.2 0.1
3 105 0.3 0.2
4 95 0.4 0.3
5 110 97.5 0.4
6 102.5
 5 7
|Dt - F*| |Dt - F*|
MAD MAD

280.00 371.43
260.00 157.14
180.00 257.14
140.00 157.14
140.00 71.43
720.00 728.57
600.00 585.71
100.00 214.29
302.50 317.86

5 7 3 5 7
|Dt - F*| |Dt - F*| (Dt - F*)2 (Dt - F*)2 (Dt - F*)2
MAD MAD EMC EMC EMC

EMC= SUAMT(DEM REAL - DEM PRON)^2 / N

2.00 4.43 21.78 4.00 19.61

3.60 3.29 18.78 12.96 10.80
16.40 14.57 81.00 268.96 212.33
1.60 0.43 18.78 2.56 0.18
3.40 8.86 44.44 11.56 78.45
14.60 12.57 336.11 213.16 158.04
17.00 19.71 225.00 289.00 388.65
25.00 25.29 900.00 625.00 639.37
8.00 7.14 100.00 64.00 51.02
1.00 0.00 2.78 1.00 0.00
9.26 9.63 174.87 149.22 155.84
 174.87 149.22 155.84

MAD 3 MAD 4 EMC 2 EMC 3 EMC4

2.67 3.25 1.00 7.11 10.56

5.67 3 56.25 32.11 9.00
10 9.25 56.25 100.00 85.56
10 12.5 56.25 100.00 156.25
15 17.5 156.25 225.00 306.25
8.67 9.1 65.2 92.84 113.525

Yt Y=a+bX
Yt =at + bt
at + bt p p p
1 at = 2Mt - Mt'
2 bt = 2(Mt - Mt')/(n-1)
3
4

680.67
678.00
689.67
700.00
714.00
710.44
707.78
710.78
714.00
717.00
720.00
723.00
726.00

Yt P n=5
1
2
3
4
1472.72
1496.24
1522.72
1559.14
1572.68
1586.9
1570.28
1561.34
1562.6
1559.14
1579.32
1625.36
1654.94
1713.48
1756.62
1786.76
1816.90
1847.04
Suvizamiento exponencial
ALFA 0.2 0.8
Semana Dem Real Pronostico S T =  dt +
49 52 49.25
50 58 49.8
51 51.44 56.36
51.44 56.36

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

ft+α*(dt-ft) α =$ numero
dt=$ letra

Alfa (α) 0.1 0.6

|Dt - F*|
Sem Demanda 0.1 0.6 |Dt - F*| MAD MAD
1 820 820 820
2 775 820 820 45.00 45.00
3 680 815.5 793 135.50 113.00
4 655 801.95 725.20 146.95 70.20
5 750 787.26 683.08 37.26 66.92
6 802 783.53 723.23 18.47 78.77
7 798 785.38 770.49 12.62 27.51
8 689 786.64 787.00 97.64 98.00
9 775 776.88 728.20 1.88 46.80
10 776.69 61.91 68.27

Alfa alfa
Semana Demanda 0.74795290862 MAD 0.4
1 1250 1250 1250
2 1150 1250 100 1250
3 970 1175.20 205.20 1210
4 1100 1021.72 78.28 1114
5 1170 1080.27 89.73 1108.4
6 1080 1147.38 67.38 1133.04
7 1120 1096.98 23.02 1111.824
8 1230 1114.20 115.80 1115.0944
9 1210 1200.81 9.19 1161.05664
10 1050 1207.68 157.68 1180.63398
11 1030 1089.74 59.74 1128.38039
12 990 1045.06 55.06 1089.02823
13 1160 1003.88 156.12 1049.41694
 14 1200 1120.65 79.35 1093.65016
15 1180 1180.00 0.00 1136.1901
16 1260 1180.00 80.00 1153.71406
17 1230 1239.84 9.84 1196.22844
18 1190 1232.48 42.48 1209.73706
19 1200.71 78.17
1201.84

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL DOBLE 1) At = At-1 + α(Dt-1-At-1)

2) At' = αAt + (1-α)At'-1
0.8 0.8 3) at = 2Ft-Dt

Sem Dem Real Expo Simple Expo Doble at bt yt

1 200 200 200 200 0
2 135 200 200 200 0 200
3 195 148 158.4 137.6 -41.6 200
4 197.5 185.6 180.16 191.04 21.76 96
5 310 195.12 192.128 198.112 11.968 212.8
6 175 287.024 268.0448 306.0032 75.9168 210.08
7 155 197.4048 211.5328 183.2768 -56.512 381.92
8 130 163.48096 173.091328 153.870592 -38.441472 126.7648
9 220 136.696192 143.9752192 129.4171648 -29.1161088 115.42912
10 277.5 203.3392384 191.46643456 215.21204224 47.4912154 100.301056
11 235 262.66784768 248.427565056 276.908130304 56.9611305 262.703258
12 333.869261
390.830391

0.2 at bt Yt
2*(Mt -
Demanda At (Pronost) At' 2*Mt - Mt' Mt')/(n-1) at + bt p
1 1274 1274.00 1274 1274
2 1297 1274.00 1274 1274
3 1317 1278.60 1275 1282.28
4 1370 1286.28 1280 1292.424
5 1447 1303.02 1290 1316.4192
6 1485 1331.82 1309 1354.85536
7 1433 1362.46 1338 1386.964288
8 1561 1376.56 1365 1387.8514304
9 1699 1413.45 1384 1442.96114432
10 1711 1470.56 1425 1516.248915456
11 1746 1518.65 1480 1557.1191323648
12 1820 1564.12 1528 1600.49530589184
13
14
15 SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
 ft+α*(dt-ft) α =$ numero
0.2 dt=$ letra
Demanda At At' at bt Yt
1 1274
2 1297
3 1317
4 1370
5 1447
6 1485
7 1433
8 1561
9 1699
10 1711
11 1746
12 1820
13
14
ST =  dt + (1 - ) ST – 1

Año 2011 2012 2013 2014

Demanda 1080 1190 1100 1220

Alfa 0.2
|Dt - F*| |Dt - F*|
Año Demanda 0.5645241 0.56452407 MAD MAD
1 1080 1080 1080
2 1190 1080 1080 110 110
3 1100 1142.09765 1142.09765 42.0976505 42.0976482
4 1220 1118.33251 1118.33251 101.667488 101.667488
5 1300 1175.72626 1175.72626 124.273741 124.273743
6 1245.88178 94.5097198 94.5097198

mad SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

ft+α*(dt-ft) α =$ numero
0 dt=$ letra
100
240
14
61.6
53.04
8.176
114.9056
48.94336
130.63398
98.38039
99.028234
110.58306
106.34984
43.809901
106.28594
33.771565
19.737061

4) bt= alfa(Ft-Dt)/(1-alfa)
5) Yt=at + btp

p
1
2
2015
1300
Semana Demanda Chart Title
1 600
6000
2 1550
3 1500 5000
4 1500 f(x) = 359.615384615385 x + 441.666666666667
4000R² = 0.933186101557578
5 2400
6 3100 3000
7 2600
2000
8 2900
9 3800 1000
10 4500
0
11 4000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
12 4900
13 5116.667 5116.66667 Syx 363.877797 desviacion estandar ls= MEDIA +T(ERROR
14 5476.282 5476.28205 R 0.96601558 coef de correlacion LI =y-T(Sxy)
15 5835.897 5835.89744 R2 0.9331861 coef determinacion superior 70
16 6195.513 6195.51282 0.9331861 coef relacion
y=a+bx
a 441.666667
b 359.615385 NC 0.9
GL 2
T 1.81246112
1.81246112
18 13000
15 12000
12 11000
10 10000
20 14000
28 16000
35 19000
30 1700
20 13000
40
= MEDIA +T(ERROR 5776.18103
4457.15231
 Prom_Moviles Prom_Moviles Prom_Moviles
Simples 3 Simples 5 Simples 7

Semana Demanda F* |Dt - F*| F* |Dt - F*| F*

1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1066.66667 433.333333
5 1500 1300 200
6 1300 1333.33333 33.3333333 1240 60
7 1800 1433.33333 366.666667 1340 460
8 1700 1533.33333 166.666667 1420 280 1328.57143
9 1300 1600 300 1560 260 1457.14286
10 1700 1600 100 1520 180 1442.85714
11 1700 1566.66667 133.333333 1560 140 1542.85714
12 1500 1566.66667 66.6666667 1640 140 1571.42857
13 2300 1633.33333 666.666667 1580 720 1571.42857
14 2300 1833.33333 466.666667 1700 600 1714.28571
15 2000 2033.33333 33.3333333 1900 100 1785.71429
16 2200.00 2200 1960 1828.57143

MAD 241.666667 302.5

EMC EMC
(Dt - F*)2 (Dt - F*)2
Prom_Moviles
EMC EMC
Simples 7
|Dt - F*| (Dt - F*)2 (Dt - F*)2

371.428571
157.142857
257.142857
157.142857
71.4285714
728.571429
585.714286
214.285714

317.857143