Demanda real

Trimestres Periodo (x) x*y x² Y

(y) Chart Title
2014 I 1 $ 119,057,229 119057229 1 164789711 $ 400,000,000
II 2 $ 140,200,658 280401316 4 169577950
II 3 $ 106,688,760 320066280 9 174366189 $ 350,000,000
IV 4 $ 89,578,116 358312464 16 179154428
$ 300,000,000
2015 I 5 $ 102,783,431 513917155 25 183942666
II 6 $ 138,751,234 832507404 36 188730905 $ 250,000,000
II 7 $ 162,773,145 1139412015 49 193519144
$ 200,000,000
IV 8 $ 274,777,766 2198222128 64 198307383
2016 I 9 $ 195,642,755 1760784795 81 203095622 $ 150,000,000
II 10 $ 367,366,692 3673666920 100 207883861
II 11 $ 322,852,020 3551372220 121 212672100 $ 100,000,000
IV 12 $ 273,028,492 3276341904 144 217460339
$ 50,000,000
∑ 78 2,293,500,298 18,024,061,830 650
Promedio 6.50 191,125,024.83 $-
0 2 4 6 8 10

a= 160001471.90
(b)= 4788238.91
 Demanda no
factor estancional x*yd Periodo (x)
hart Title estacional (yd)
0.73 163514154 163514154 13
1.13 124377613 248755226 14
1.03 103277457 309832370 15
1.11 80582237 322328950 16
0.73 141163589 705817947
1.13 123091771 738550626 a=
1.03 157568580 1102980061 b=
1.11 247183220 1977465761
0.73 268697331 2418275976
1.13 325905690 3259056905 Dem
1.03 312529038 3437819415 400000000
1.11 245609617 2947315403 350000000
12.00 2293500298 17631712795
300000000
1.00 191125025 1469309400
6 8 10 12 14 250000000

Promedio Factor estacional 200000000

T(I) 139161138 0.73 150000000
T(II) 215439528 1.13 100000000
T(III) 197437975 1.03 50000000
T(IV) 212461458 1.11 0
1 2 3 4

Y
 Factor
Y Pronóstico
estacional
314941427 0.73 229907242
333990105 1.13 377408818
353038782 1.03 363629946
372087459 1.1 413017079.993

67308622
19048677

Demanda Real
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Y Demanda real (y)

 Desviación DA Media
x y Y Desviación (y-Y) SCEP (SCEPt-1 + Dt) ∑DA (∑DAt-1 + Dat)
Absoluta (DA) (∑DA/x)

SUMA

Error Cuadrático Medio

Error estándar

DA M
EPAM
Señal de Seguimiento Error Porcentual
Error Cuadrático
(SCEP/DAM) Absoluto Medio