a)Calcule un pronóstico para el día 15 utilizando suavizamiento exponencial con parámetros alfa ig

Día Demanda 0.3 0.5 0.9

1 200
2 134 200.00 200.00 200.00
3 157 153.80 167.00 193.40 210
4 165 156.04 162.00 189.76 200
5 177 162.31 163.50 187.28 190
6 125 172.59 170.25 186.26
180
7 146 139.28 147.63 180.13
170
8 150 143.98 146.81 176.72
160
9 182 148.20 148.41 174.05
150
10 197 171.86 165.20 174.84
140
11 136 189.46 181.10 177.06
130
12 163 152.04 158.55 172.95
120
13 157 159.71 160.78 171.96 1 2
14 169 157.81 158.89 170.46
15 165.64 163.94 170.31

b)Calcule un pronóstico para el día 15 utilizando promedios móviles para tres y cinco períodos.
3 5
Dia Demanda N=3 N=5
1 200.0
2 134.0 210.0
3 157.0 200.0
4 165.0 163.7 190.0
5 177.0 152.0 180.0

Demanda
6 125.0 166.3 166.6 170.0
7 146.0 155.7 151.6 160.0
8 150.0 149.3 154.0 150.0
9 182.0 140.3 152.6 140.0
10 197.0 159.3 156.0 130.0
11 136.0 176.3 160.0 120.0
1 2 3
12 163.0 171.7 162.2
13 157.0 165.3 165.6
14 169.0 152.0 167.0
15 163.0 164.4

c)Calcule un pronóstico para el día 15 utilizando mínimos cuadrados.

X Y X.Y X2 Y2 Ypronóstico
1 200 200 1 40000 32336.2
2 134 268 4 17956 21665.2
 3 157 471 9 24649 25383.9
4 165 660 16 27225 26677.4
5 177 885 25 31329 28617.5
6 125 750 36 15625 20210.1
7 146 1022 49 21316 23605.4
8 150 1200 64 22500 24252.1
9 182 1638 81 33124 29425.9
10 197 1970 100 38809 31851.2
11 136 1496 121 18496 21988.6
12 163 1956 144 26569 26354.0
13 157 2041 169 24649 25383.9
14 169 2366 196 28561 27324.1
Total 105 2258 16923 1015 370808

X Promedio: 7.5
Y Promedio: 161.3

Pendiente de la Recta (b) = -0.05

Secante Y (a) = 161.7

Y(15)pron = 160.9

d) En cada uno de los métodos hallar el MAD (desviación) y el TS (señal de rastreo).

Día Demanda 0.3 ERRABS ER_ABS_AC MAD

1 200
1 2 134 200.00 66.00 66.00 66.0
2 3 157 153.80 3.20 69.20 34.6
3 4 165 156.04 8.96 78.16 26.1
4 5 177 162.31 14.69 92.85 23.2
5 6 125 172.59 47.59 140.44 28.1
6 7 146 139.28 6.72 147.16 24.5
7 8 150 143.98 6.02 153.18 21.9
8 9 182 148.20 33.80 186.99 23.4
9 10 197 171.86 25.14 212.13 23.6
10 11 136 189.46 53.46 265.58 26.6
11 12 163 152.04 10.96 276.55 25.1
12 13 157 159.71 2.71 279.26 23.3
13 14 169 157.81 11.19 290.44 22.3

Día Demanda 0.5 ERRABS ER_ABS_AC MAD

1 200
1 2 134 200.00 66.00 66.00 66.0
2 3 157 167.00 10.00 76.00 38.0
 3 4 165 162.00 3.00 79.00 26.3
4 5 177 163.50 13.50 92.50 23.1
5 6 125 170.25 45.25 137.75 27.6
6 7 146 147.63 1.63 139.38 23.2
7 8 150 146.81 3.19 142.56 20.4
8 9 182 148.41 33.59 176.16 22.0
9 10 197 165.20 31.80 207.95 23.1
10 11 136 181.10 45.10 253.05 25.3
11 12 163 158.55 4.45 257.50 23.4
12 13 157 160.78 3.78 261.28 21.8
13 14 169 158.89 10.11 271.39 20.9

Día Demanda 0.9 ERRABS ER_ABS_AC MAD

1 200
1 2 134 200.00 66.00 66.00 66.0
2 3 157 193.40 36.40 102.40 51.2
3 4 165 189.76 24.76 127.16 42.4
4 5 177 187.28 10.28 137.44 34.4
5 6 125 186.26 61.26 198.70 39.7
6 7 146 180.13 34.13 232.83 38.8
7 8 150 176.72 26.72 259.55 37.1
8 9 182 174.05 7.95 267.50 33.4
9 10 197 174.84 22.16 289.66 32.2
10 11 136 177.06 41.06 330.72 33.1
11 12 163 172.95 9.95 340.67 31.0
12 13 157 171.96 14.96 355.62 29.6
13 14 169 170.46 1.46 357.08 27.5
onencial con parámetros alfa igual a 0.3, 0.5 y 0.9.

S.E.
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demanda 0.3 0.5 0.9

para tres y cinco períodos.

Pronóstico Movil
210.0
200.0
190.0
180.0
Demanda

170.0 Demanda
N=3
160.0
N=5
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Días

(Y - Y)2 Pronostico
1032736056.7 161.7 38.3
463594466.29 161.8 -27.8
 636397204.38 161.8 -4.8
702905489.15 161.9 3.1
808864353 161.9 15.1
403411727.58 162.0 -37.0
550344376.42 162.1 -16.1
580913396.25 162.1 -12.1
855208450.92 162.2 19.8
1001986290.6 162.2 34.8
477536414.93 162.3 -26.3
685968596.13 162.3 0.7
636397204.38 162.4 -5.4
737398918.88 162.4 6.6

ñal de rastreo).

ERR_NORM ER_NOR_AC TS
TS
-66.0 -66.0 -1.0
4.0
3.2 -62.8 -1.8
9.0 -53.8 -2.1 3.0
14.7 -39.2 -1.7
2.0
-47.6 -86.7 -3.1
6.7 -80.0 -3.3 1.0
6.0 -74.0 -3.4 0.0
33.8 -40.2 -1.7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-1.0
25.1 -15.1 -0.6
-53.5 -68.5 -2.6 -2.0
11.0 -57.6 -2.3
-3.0
-2.7 -60.3 -2.6
11.2 -49.1 -2.2 -4.0

ERR_NORM ER_NOR_AC TS

-66.0 -66.0 -1.0

-10.0 -76.0 -2.0
 3.0 -73.0 -2.8
13.5 -59.5 -2.6
-45.3 -104.8 -3.8
-1.6 -106.4 -4.6
3.2 -103.2 -5.1
33.6 -69.6 -3.2
31.8 -37.8 -1.6
-45.1 -82.9 -3.3
4.4 -78.4 -3.4
-3.8 -82.2 -3.8
10.1 -72.1 -3.5

ERR_NORM ER_NOR_AC TS

-66.0 -66.0 -1.0

-36.4 -102.4 -2.0
-24.8 -127.2 -3.0
-10.3 -137.4 -4.0
-61.3 -198.7 -5.0
-34.1 -232.8 -6.0
-26.7 -259.5 -7.0
8.0 -251.6 -7.5
22.2 -229.4 -7.1
-41.1 -270.5 -8.2
-10.0 -280.4 -9.1
-15.0 -295.4 -10.0
-1.5 -296.9 -10.8
 11 12 13 14 15

Demanda
N=3
N=5

15
TS

7 8 9 10 11 12 13
TS_0.3 TS_0.5 TS_0.9

-1.0 -1.0 -1.0

-1.8 -2.0 -2.0
-2.1 -2.8 -3.0
-1.7 -2.6 -4.0
-3.1 -3.8 -5.0
-3.3 -4.6 -6.0
-3.4 -5.1 -7.0
-1.7 -3.2 -7.5
-0.6 -1.6 -7.1
-2.6 -3.3 -8.2
-2.3 -3.4 -9.1
-2.6 -3.8 -10.0
-2.2 -3.5 -10.8
 4.0

2.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

-12.0