Res Cerdo Pollo

Proporción
Mes por Mes Proporción Mes Proporción
demanda por demanda por demanda

Jan-16 0.1257 Jan-16 0.0256 Jan-16 0.0713

Feb-16 0.1115 Feb-16 0.0490 Feb-16 0.0772
Mar-16 0.0248 Mar-16 0.1063 Mar-16 0.0846
Apr-16 0.0637 Apr-16 0.1198 Apr-16 0.0861
May-16 0.1735 May-16 0.0432 May-16 0.0817

Jun-16 Jun-16 Jun-16

0.0354 0.1340 0.0861
Jul-16 0.1611 Jul-16 0.1149 Jul-16 0.0891
Aug-16 0.0354 Aug-16 0.0726 Aug-16 0.0757
Sep-16 0.0637 Sep-16 0.0704 Sep-16 0.0802
Oct-16 0.0973 Oct-16 0.0726 Oct-16 0.0854
Nov-16 0.0513 Nov-16 0.1322 Nov-16 0.0891
Dec-16 0.0566 Dec-16 0.0592 Dec-16 0.0935
Jan-17 0.0447 Jan-17 0.1496 Jan-17 0.0729
Feb-17 0.0592 Feb-17 0.0298 Feb-17 0.0776
Mar-17 0.0216 Mar-17 0.0790 Mar-17 0.0752
Apr-17 0.0981 Apr-17 0.1580 Apr-17 0.0799
May-17 0.1443 May-17 0.0718 May-17 0.0823
Jun-17 0.1025 Jun-17 0.0774 Jun-17 0.0834
Jul-17 0.1342 Jul-17 0.0284 Jul-17 0.0858
Aug-17 0.1414 Aug-17 0.0478 Aug-17 0.0846
Sep-17 0.0505 Sep-17 0.0480 Sep-17 0.0893
Oct-17 0.0924 Oct-17 0.1441 Oct-17 0.0905
Nov-17 0.0433 Nov-17 0.1236 Nov-17 0.0905
Dec-17 0.0678 Dec-17 0.0424 Dec-17 0.0881
Jan-18 0.0305 Jan-18 0.0241 Jan-18 0.0705
Feb-18 0.0962 Feb-18 0.1408 Feb-18 0.0723
Mar-18 0.0560 Mar-18 0.0566 Mar-18 0.0796
Apr-18 0.1145 Apr-18 0.1548 Apr-18 0.0814
May-18 0.1194 May-18 0.0504 May-18 0.0832
Jun-18 0.1108 Jun-18 0.1527 Jun-18 0.0814
Jul-18 0.0195 Jul-18 0.0805 Jul-18 0.0850
Aug-18 0.0999 Aug-18 0.0791 Aug-18 0.0850
Sep-18 0.1121 Sep-18 0.1371 Sep-18 0.0868
Oct-18 0.1206 Oct-18 0.0791 Oct-18 0.0895
Nov-18 0.0341 Nov-18 0.0704 Nov-18 0.0904
Dec-18 0.0865 Dec-18 0.1149 Dec-18 0.0949
 CONSUMO EN KG *HABITANTE
Carne de
Año Carne de res Carne de pollo cerdo Habitantes
(kg/hab) (kg/hab) (kg/hab)
2016 18.6 31.5 8.7 48,748,000
2017 18.1 32.8 9.4 49,292,000
2018 18.2 33.8 10 49,834,000

HISTORICO DE DEMANDA REAL

Carne de res Carne de pollo Carne de

Año cerdo
(tons ) (tons)
(tons)
2016 906,712.80 1,535,562.00 424,107.60
2017 892,185.20 1,616,777.60 463,344.80
2018 906,978.80 1,684,389.20 498,340.00
901,958.93 1,612,242.93 461,930.80
 País Meta Granja Juan
Año
Ton 35% 15%
2016 1,535,562 537,446.70 80,617.01
2017 1,616,778 565,872.16 84,880.82
2018 1,684,389 589,536.22 88,430.43

Proporción Demanda Alas Pechuga Hueso Otros

Mes
por demanda
ton 10% 50% 15% 25%
Jan-16 0.0347 2,799.20 279.92 1,399.60 419.88 699.80
Feb-16 0.0463 3,732.27 373.23 1,866.13 559.84 933.07
Mar-16 0.0602 4,851.95 485.19 2,425.97 727.79 1,212.99
Apr-16 0.0694 5,598.40 559.84 2,799.20 839.76 1,399.60
May-16 0.0810 6,531.47 653.15 3,265.74 979.72 1,632.87
Jun-16 0.0880 7,091.31 709.13 3,545.66 1,063.70 1,772.83
Jul-16 0.0926 7,464.54 746.45 3,732.27 1,119.68 1,866.13
Aug-16 0.0995 8,024.38 802.44 4,012.19 1,203.66 2,006.09
Sep-16 0.0972 7,837.76 783.78 3,918.88 1,175.66 1,959.44
Oct-16 0.1088 8,770.83 877.08 4,385.42 1,315.62 2,192.71
Nov-16 0.1157 9,330.67 933.07 4,665.34 1,399.60 2,332.67
Dec-16 0.1065 8,584.22 858.42 4,292.11 1,287.63 2,146.05
Jan-17 0.0713 6,049.41 604.94 3,024.71 907.41 1,512.35
Feb-17 0.0772 6,553.53 655.35 3,276.77 983.03 1,638.38
Mar-17 0.0846 7,183.68 718.37 3,591.84 1,077.55 1,795.92
Apr-17 0.0861 7,309.71 730.97 3,654.85 1,096.46 1,827.43
May-17 0.0817 6,931.62 693.16 3,465.81 1,039.74 1,732.90
Jun-17 0.0861 7,309.71 730.97 3,654.85 1,096.46 1,827.43
Jul-17 0.0891 7,561.77 756.18 3,780.88 1,134.26 1,890.44
Aug-17 0.0757 6,427.50 642.75 3,213.75 964.13 1,606.88
Sep-17 0.0802 6,805.59 680.56 3,402.79 1,020.84 1,701.40
Oct-17 0.0854 7,246.69 724.67 3,623.35 1,087.00 1,811.67
Nov-17 0.0891 7,561.77 756.18 3,780.88 1,134.26 1,890.44
Dec-17 0.0935 7,939.85 793.99 3,969.93 1,190.98 1,984.96
Jan-18 0.0729 6,442.64 644.26 3,221.32 966.40 1,610.66
Feb-18 0.0776 6,858.29 685.83 3,429.15 1,028.74 1,714.57
Mar-18 0.0752 6,650.47 665.05 3,325.23 997.57 1,662.62
Apr-18 0.0799 7,066.12 706.61 3,533.06 1,059.92 1,766.53
May-18 0.0823 7,273.95 727.39 3,636.97 1,091.09 1,818.49
Jun-18 0.0834 7,377.86 737.79 3,688.93 1,106.68 1,844.47
Jul-18 0.0858 7,585.69 758.57 3,792.84 1,137.85 1,896.42
Aug-18 0.0846 7,481.78 748.18 3,740.89 1,122.27 1,870.44
Sep-18 0.0893 7,897.43 789.74 3,948.71 1,184.61 1,974.36
Oct-18 0.0905 8,001.34 800.13 4,000.67 1,200.20 2,000.34
 Nov-18 0.0905 8,001.34 800.13 4,000.67 1,200.20 2,000.34
Dec-18 0.0881 7,793.52 779.35 3,896.76 1,169.03 1,948.38

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE

Demanda
t Mes Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
ton
0.74
α 0.15 0.83
β 0.25 0.90
γ 0.25 0.96
Gto 1.74 0.99
Sto -67,576.61 1.04
N 12 1.07
M 3 1.03
Suma 12.00 1.05
1.12
1.15
-67,576.61 1.74 1.11
Jan-16 2,799.20 6,127.36 0.46 -56,871.73 2,677.52 0.54
Feb-16 3,732.27 6,181.28 0.60 -45,389.27 4,878.76 0.60
Mar-16 4,851.95 6,231.73 0.78 -33,628.65 6,599.22 0.64
Apr-16 5,598.40 6,285.66 0.89 -22,100.90 7,831.35 0.66
May-16 6,531.47 6,337.84 1.03 -11,143.08 8,612.97 0.60
Jun-16 7,091.31 6,391.77 1.11 -1,125.40 8,964.15 -0.80
Jul-16 7,464.54 6,443.95 1.16 7,709.37 8,931.80 1.04
Aug-16 8,024.38 6,497.88 1.23 15,310.12 8,599.04 0.91
Sep-16 7,837.76 6,551.80 1.20 21,441.43 7,982.11 0.88
Oct-16 8,770.83 6,603.99 1.33 26,189.80 7,173.67 0.92
Nov-16 9,330.67 6,657.92 1.40 29,576.85 6,227.02 0.94
Dec-16 8,584.22 6,710.10 1.28 31,590.91 5,173.78 0.90
Jan-17 6,049.41 6,764.03 0.89 32,920.54 4,212.74 0.45
Feb-17 6,553.53 6,817.95 0.96 33,199.62 3,229.33 0.50
Mar-17 7,183.68 6,866.66 1.05 32,643.68 2,283.01 0.54
Apr-17 7,309.71 6,920.59 1.06 31,356.06 1,390.35 0.55
May-17 6,931.62 6,972.77 0.99 29,571.23 596.56 0.51
Jun-17 7,309.71 7,026.70 1.04 24,267.09 -878.62 -0.52
Jul-17 7,561.77 7,078.88 1.07 20,966.08 -1,484.22 0.87
Aug-17 6,427.50 7,132.81 0.90 17,623.93 -1,948.70 0.77
Sep-17 6,805.59 7,186.73 0.95 14,484.50 -2,246.38 0.78
Oct-17 7,246.69 7,238.92 1.00 11,583.84 -2,409.95 0.85
Nov-17 7,561.77 7,292.85 1.04 9,003.48 -2,452.55 0.92
Dec-17 7,939.85 7,345.03 1.08 6,888.43 -2,368.18 0.96
Jan-18 6,442.64 7,398.96 0.87 5,974.01 -2,004.74 0.61
Feb-18 6,858.29 7,452.88 0.92 5,431.73 -1,639.12 0.69
Mar-18 6,650.47 7,501.59 0.89 5,083.70 -1,316.35 0.73
 Apr-18 7,066.12 7,555.51 0.94 5,125.24 -976.88 0.76
May-18 7,273.95 7,607.70 0.96 5,675.64 -595.06 0.70
Jun-18 7,377.86 7,661.63 0.96 2,200.57 -1,315.06 0.45
Jul-18 7,585.69 7,713.81 0.98 2,055.20 -1,022.64 1.58
Aug-18 7,481.78 7,767.74 0.96 2,334.11 -697.25 1.38
Sep-18 7,897.43 7,821.66 1.01 2,915.59 -377.57 1.26
Oct-18 8,001.34 7,873.85 1.02 3,575.24 -118.26 1.19
Nov-18 8,001.34 7,927.77 1.01 4,249.35 79.83 1.16
Dec-18 7,793.52 7,979.96 0.98 4,891.51 220.41 1.12
1 Jan-19
2 Feb-19
3 Mar-19
4 Apr-19
5 May-19
6 Jun-19
7 Jul-19
8 Aug-19
9 Sep-19
10 Oct-19
11 Nov-19
12 Dec-19

Demanda
Mes Pronostico Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton
Jan-16 2,799.20 -50,049.04 -52,848.24 52,848.24 2,792,936,415.11 1887.98%
Feb-16 3,732.27 -44,895.18 -48,627.45 48,627.45 2,364,628,544.70 1302.89%
Mar-16 4,851.95 -36,612.01 -41,463.96 41,463.96 1,719,259,922.95 854.58%
Apr-16 5,598.40 -25,967.32 -31,565.73 31,565.73 996,395,143.32 563.83%
May-16 6,531.47 -14,178.13 -20,709.60 20,709.60 428,887,362.20 317.07%
Jun-16 7,091.31 -2,625.14 -9,716.45 9,716.45 94,409,450.71 137.02%
Jul-16 7,464.54 8,387.42 922.88 922.88 851,703.60 12.36%
Aug-16 8,024.38 17,191.59 9,167.21 9,167.21 84,037,767.14 114.24%
Sep-16 7,837.76 25,127.95 17,290.19 17,290.19 298,950,586.71 220.60%
Oct-16 8,770.83 32,810.93 24,040.10 24,040.10 577,926,521.87 274.09%
Nov-16 9,330.67 38,341.25 29,010.58 29,010.58 841,613,647.82 310.92%
Dec-16 8,584.22 39,824.84 31,240.62 31,240.62 975,976,464.58 363.93%
Jan-17 6,049.41 19,969.82 13,920.41 13,920.41 193,777,781.91 230.11%
Feb-17 6,553.53 22,307.92 15,754.39 15,754.39 248,200,792.90 240.40%
Mar-17 7,183.68 23,378.43 16,194.75 16,194.75 262,269,903.01 225.44%
Apr-17 7,309.71 22,953.87 15,644.16 15,644.16 244,739,878.20 214.02%
May-17 6,931.62 19,603.91 12,672.29 12,672.29 160,586,894.26 182.82%
Jun-17 7,309.71 -24,047.12 -31,356.82 31,356.82 983,250,339.42 428.98%
Jul-17 7,561.77 24,430.58 16,868.81 16,868.81 284,556,785.73 223.08%
Aug-17 6,427.50 17,647.40 11,219.90 11,219.90 125,886,120.44 174.56%
Sep-17 6,805.59 13,788.21 6,982.63 6,982.63 48,757,054.72 102.60%
Oct-17 7,246.69 11,259.90 4,013.20 4,013.20 16,105,801.81 55.38%
Nov-17 7,561.77 8,630.48 1,068.72 1,068.72 1,142,158.03 14.13%
Dec-17 7,939.85 5,910.00 -2,029.86 2,029.86 4,120,315.88 25.57%
Jan-18 6,442.64 2,049.14 -4,393.50 4,393.50 19,302,863.87 68.19%
Feb-18 6,858.29 1,984.30 -4,874.00 4,874.00 23,755,865.63 71.07%
Mar-18 6,650.47 2,034.09 -4,616.38 4,616.38 21,310,930.67 69.41%
Apr-18 7,066.12 2,076.49 -4,989.63 4,989.63 24,896,412.95 70.61%
May-18 7,273.95 2,105.69 -5,168.26 5,168.26 26,710,919.91 71.05%
Jun-18 7,377.86 -2,654.76 -10,032.62 10,032.62 100,653,429.53 135.98%
Jul-18 7,585.69 773.57 -6,812.12 6,812.12 46,404,999.86 89.80%
Aug-18 7,481.78 795.64 -6,686.14 6,686.14 44,704,414.75 89.37%
Sep-18 7,897.43 1,272.13 -6,625.30 6,625.30 43,894,568.06 83.89%
Oct-18 8,001.34 2,148.30 -5,853.04 5,853.04 34,258,118.21 73.15%
Nov-18 8,001.34 3,165.01 -4,836.33 4,836.33 23,390,080.17 60.44%
Dec-18 7,793.52 4,176.71 -3,616.81 3,616.81 13,081,287.97 46.41%
-2,244.76 14,800.92 393,656,423.57 261.28%

ME -2,244.76
MAD 14,800.92
MSE 393,656,423.57
MAPE 261.28%
10,000.00
9,000.00
Consumo 2016 -2018
f(x) = 550.705388986014 Pollo
x + 3138.49872159091
R² = 0.918394290075706
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 2016
6 7 8 Linear
9 10(2016)
11 12
2017 2018
 Ft

α 0.25
β 0.35

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

Demanda
Mes St Gt Ft
ton
-67,576.61 1.74
Jan-16 2,799.20 -49,981.35 6,159.47 -43,821.88
Feb-16 3,732.27 -31,933.34 10,320.46 -21,612.88
Mar-16 4,851.95 -14,996.68 12,636.13 -2,360.54
Apr-16 5,598.40 -370.81 13,332.54 12,961.73
May-16 6,531.47 11,354.17 12,769.89 24,124.06
-50,049.04 Jun-16 7,091.31 19,865.87 11,279.53 31,145.40
-44,895.18 Jul-16 7,464.54 25,225.18 9,207.45 34,432.63
-36,612.01 Aug-16 8,024.38 27,830.57 6,896.73 34,727.30
-25,967.32 Sep-16 7,837.76 28,004.92 4,543.89 32,548.81
-14,178.13 Oct-16 8,770.83 26,604.32 2,463.32 29,067.64
-2,625.14 Nov-16 9,330.67 24,133.40 736.34 24,869.73
8,387.42 Dec-16 8,584.22 20,798.35 -688.65 20,109.71
17,191.59 Jan-17 6,049.41 16,594.63 -1,918.92 14,675.71
25,127.95 Feb-17 6,553.53 12,645.17 -2,629.61 10,015.56
32,810.93 Mar-17 7,183.68 9,307.59 -2,877.40 6,430.18
38,341.25 Apr-17 7,309.71 6,650.06 -2,800.44 3,849.62
39,824.84 May-17 6,931.62 4,620.12 -2,530.77 2,089.35
19,969.82 Jun-17 7,309.71 3,394.44 -2,073.99 1,320.45
22,307.92 Jul-17 7,561.77 2,880.78 -1,527.87 1,352.91
23,378.43 Aug-17 6,427.50 2,621.56 -1,083.85 1,537.71
22,953.87 Sep-17 6,805.59 2,854.68 -622.91 2,231.77
19,603.91 Oct-17 7,246.69 3,485.50 -184.10 3,301.40
-24,047.12 Nov-17 7,561.77 4,366.49 188.68 4,555.17
24,430.58 Dec-17 7,939.85 5,401.34 484.84 5,886.18
17,647.40 Jan-18 6,442.64 6,025.30 533.53 6,558.83
13,788.21 Feb-18 6,858.29 6,633.69 559.73 7,193.43
11,259.90 Mar-18 6,650.47 7,057.69 512.22 7,569.91
8,630.48 Apr-18 7,066.12 7,443.96 468.14 7,912.11
5,910.00 May-18 7,273.95 7,752.57 412.30 8,164.87
2,049.14 Jun-18 7,377.86 7,968.12 343.44 8,311.56
1,984.30 Jul-18 7,585.69 8,130.09 279.93 8,410.02
2,034.09 Aug-18 7,481.78 8,177.96 198.71 8,376.66
 2,076.49 Sep-18 7,897.43 8,256.86 156.77 8,413.63
2,105.69 Oct-18 8,001.34 8,310.56 120.70 8,431.25
-2,654.76 Nov-18 8,001.34 8,323.78 83.08 8,406.86
773.57 t Dec-18 7,793.52 8,253.52 29.41 8,282.94
795.64 1 Jan-20 8,312.35 t
1,272.13 2 Feb-20 8,341.76 1
2,148.30 3 Mar-20 8,371.17 2
3,165.01 4 Apr-20 8,400.59 3
4,176.71 5 May-20 8,430.00 4
5,735.08 6 Jun-20 8,459.41 5
5,982.36 7 Jul-20 8,488.83 6
6,229.64 8 Aug-20 8,518.24 7
6,476.92 9 Sep-20 8,547.65 8
6,724.20 10 Oct-20 8,577.07 9
6,971.48 11 Nov-20 8,606.48 10
7,218.76 12 Dec-20 8,253.52 11
7,466.04 12
7,713.32
7,960.61
8,207.89
8,455.17

Demanda
Mes Ft Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton
Jan-16 2,695.96 -43,821.88 -46,517.84 46,517.84 2,163,909,118.21 1725.47%
Feb-16 3,594.61 -21,612.88 -25,207.49 25,207.49 635,417,644.78 701.26%
Mar-16 4,672.99 -2,360.54 -7,033.53 7,033.53 49,470,592.42 150.51%
Apr-16 5,391.91 12,961.73 7,569.82 7,569.82 57,302,203.70 140.39%
May-16 6,290.56 24,124.06 17,833.50 17,833.50 318,033,600.29 283.50%
Jun-16 6,829.75 31,145.40 24,315.64 24,315.64 591,250,590.08 356.03%
Jul-16 7,189.21 34,432.63 27,243.42 27,243.42 742,203,947.01 378.95%
Aug-16 7,728.40 34,727.30 26,998.89 26,998.89 728,940,268.85 349.35%
Sep-16 7,548.67 32,548.81 25,000.14 25,000.14 625,006,752.47 331.19%
Oct-16 8,447.33 29,067.64 20,620.31 20,620.31 425,197,191.56 244.10%
Nov-16 8,986.52 24,869.73 15,883.21 15,883.21 252,276,517.07 176.74%
Dec-16 8,267.60 20,109.71 11,842.11 11,842.11 140,235,623.05 143.24%
Jan-17 5,850.32 14,675.71 8,825.39 8,825.39 77,887,474.04 150.85%
Feb-17 6,337.85 10,015.56 3,677.70 3,677.70 13,525,499.47 58.03%
Mar-17 6,947.26 6,430.18 -517.08 517.08 267,368.38 7.44%
Apr-17 7,069.14 3,849.62 -3,219.52 3,219.52 10,365,316.19 45.54%
May-17 6,703.50 2,089.35 -4,614.15 4,614.15 21,290,334.46 68.83%
Jun-17 7,069.14 1,320.45 -5,748.69 5,748.69 33,047,427.05 81.32%
Jul-17 7,312.91 1,352.91 -5,960.00 5,960.00 35,521,567.13 81.50%
Aug-17 6,215.97 1,537.71 -4,678.26 4,678.26 21,886,108.46 75.26%
Sep-17 6,581.62 2,231.77 -4,349.84 4,349.84 18,921,120.02 66.09%
Oct-17 7,008.20 3,301.40 -3,706.80 3,706.80 13,740,360.16 52.89%
Nov-17 7,312.91 4,555.17 -2,757.73 2,757.73 7,605,086.41 37.71%
Dec-17 7,678.55 5,886.18 -1,792.37 1,792.37 3,212,580.21 23.34%
Jan-18 6,233.26 6,558.83 325.57 325.57 105,994.77 5.22%
Feb-18 6,635.41 7,193.43 558.02 558.02 311,389.04 8.41%
Mar-18 6,434.33 7,569.91 1,135.58 1,135.58 1,289,540.52 17.65%
Apr-18 6,836.48 7,912.11 1,075.63 1,075.63 1,156,976.59 15.73%
May-18 7,037.55 8,164.87 1,127.32 1,127.32 1,270,849.57 16.02%
Jun-18 7,138.09 8,311.56 1,173.47 1,173.47 1,377,035.01 16.44%
Jul-18 7,339.16 8,410.02 1,070.86 1,070.86 1,146,736.24 14.59%
Aug-18 7,238.62 8,376.66 1,138.04 1,138.04 1,295,132.70 15.72%
Sep-18 7,640.77 8,413.63 772.86 772.86 597,308.55 10.11%
Oct-18 7,741.31 8,431.25 689.95 689.95 476,027.74 8.91%
Nov-18 7,741.31 8,406.86 665.55 665.55 442,957.41 8.60%
Dec-18 7,540.23 8,282.94 742.70 742.70 551,605.34 9.85%
2,338.40 8,788.58 194,348,217.92 163.24%

ME 2,338.40
MAD 8,788.58
MSE 194,348,217.92
MAPE 163.24%
 α 0.25
SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
Demanda
Mes Ft Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton
2,695.96
Jan-16 2,695.96 2,695.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
Feb-16 3,594.61 2,920.62 -673.99 673.99 454,260.91 18.75%
Mar-16 4,672.99 3,358.71 -1,314.28 1,314.28 1,727,327.09 28.13%
Apr-16 5,391.91 3,867.01 -1,524.90 1,524.90 2,325,318.99 28.28%
May-16 6,290.56 4,472.90 -1,817.66 1,817.66 3,303,900.78 28.90%
Jun-16 6,829.75 5,062.11 -1,767.64 1,767.64 3,124,554.51 25.88%
Jul-16 7,189.21 5,593.89 -1,595.33 1,595.33 2,545,065.78 22.19%
Aug-16 7,728.40 6,127.52 -1,600.89 1,600.89 2,562,842.24 20.71%
Sep-16 7,548.67 6,482.81 -1,065.87 1,065.87 1,136,075.03 14.12%
Oct-16 8,447.33 6,973.94 -1,473.39 1,473.39 2,170,877.96 17.44%
Nov-16 8,986.52 7,477.08 -1,509.44 1,509.44 2,278,396.28 16.80%
Dec-16 8,267.60 7,674.71 -592.89 592.89 351,513.54 7.17%
Jan-17 5,850.32 7,218.61 1,368.29 1,368.29 1,872,214.54 23.39%
Feb-17 6,337.85 6,998.42 660.57 660.57 436,354.54 10.42%
Mar-17 6,947.26 6,985.63 38.37 38.37 1,472.40 0.55%
Apr-17 7,069.14 7,006.51 -62.63 62.63 3,922.82 0.89%
May-17 6,703.50 6,930.76 227.26 227.26 51,646.96 3.39%
Jun-17 7,069.14 6,965.35 -103.79 103.79 10,772.20 1.47%
Jul-17 7,312.91 7,052.24 -260.66 260.66 67,946.02 3.56%
Aug-17 6,215.97 6,843.17 627.20 627.20 393,384.25 10.09%
Sep-17 6,581.62 6,777.78 196.17 196.17 38,482.14 2.98%
Oct-17 7,008.20 6,835.39 -172.81 172.81 29,864.39 2.47%
Nov-17 7,312.91 6,954.77 -358.14 358.14 128,262.96 4.90%
Dec-17 7,678.55 7,135.71 -542.84 542.84 294,672.69 7.07%
Jan-18 6,233.26 6,910.10 676.84 676.84 458,113.01 10.86%
Feb-18 6,635.41 6,841.43 206.02 206.02 42,444.65 3.10%
Mar-18 6,434.33 6,739.65 305.32 305.32 93,220.56 4.75%
Apr-18 6,836.48 6,763.86 -72.62 72.62 5,273.52 1.06%
May-18 7,037.55 6,832.28 -205.27 205.27 42,135.34 2.92%
Jun-18 7,138.09 6,908.73 -229.35 229.35 52,603.28 3.21%
Jul-18 7,339.16 7,016.34 -322.82 322.82 104,212.89 4.40%
Aug-18 7,238.62 7,071.91 -166.71 166.71 27,793.17 2.30%
Sep-18 7,640.77 7,214.13 -426.64 426.64 182,025.08 5.58%
Oct-18 7,741.31 7,345.92 -395.39 395.39 156,329.55 5.11%
Nov-18 7,741.31 7,444.77 -296.54 296.54 87,935.37 3.83%
Dec-18 7,540.23 7,468.63 -71.60 71.60 5,126.50 0.95%
Jan-19 7,468.63 7,468.63 -397.72 636.95 737,953.94 9.66%
Feb-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
Mar-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
Apr-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
May-19 7,468.63 7,468.63 ME -397.72
Jun-19 7,468.63 7,468.63 MAD 636.95
Jul-19 7,468.63 7,468.63 MSE 737,953.94
Aug-19 7,468.63 7,468.63 MAPE 9.66%
Sep-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
Oct-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
Nov-19 7,468.63 7,468.63
Dec-19 7,468.63
 N 3
PROMEDIO MOVIL
Demanda Promedio
Mes Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton movil
Jan-16 2,799.20
Feb-16 3,732.27
Mar-16 4,851.95
Apr-16 5,598.40 3,794.47 -1,803.93 1,803.93 ### 32.22%
May-16 6,531.47 4,727.54 -1,803.93 1,803.93 ### 27.62%
Jun-16 7,091.31 5,660.61 -1,430.70 1,430.70 ### 20.18%
Jul-16 7,464.54 6,407.06 -1,057.48 1,057.48 ### 14.17%
Aug-16 8,024.38 7,029.11 -995.27 995.27 990,565.69 12.40%
Sep-16 7,837.76 7,526.74 -311.02 311.02 96,734.93 3.97%
Oct-16 8,770.83 7,775.56 -995.27 995.27 990,565.69 11.35%
Nov-16 9,330.67 8,210.99 -1,119.68 1,119.68 ### 12.00%
Dec-16 8,584.22 8,646.42 62.20 62.20 3,869.40 0.72%
Jan-17 6,049.41 8,895.24 2,845.83 2,845.83 ### 47.04%
Feb-17 6,553.53 7,988.10 1,434.57 1,434.57 ### 21.89%
Mar-17 7,183.68 7,062.39 -121.29 121.29 14,711.40 1.69%
Apr-17 7,309.71 6,595.54 -714.17 714.17 510,034.21 9.77%
May-17 6,931.62 7,015.64 84.02 84.02 7,059.30 1.21%
Jun-17 7,309.71 7,141.67 -168.04 168.04 28,237.19 2.30%
Jul-17 7,561.77 7,183.68 -378.09 378.09 142,950.76 5.00%
Aug-17 6,427.50 7,267.70 840.20 840.20 705,929.70 13.07%
Sep-17 6,805.59 7,099.66 294.07 294.07 86,476.39 4.32%
Oct-17 7,246.69 6,931.62 -315.07 315.07 99,271.36 4.35%
Nov-17 7,561.77 6,826.59 -735.17 735.17 540,477.43 9.72%
Dec-17 7,939.85 7,204.68 -735.17 735.17 540,477.43 9.26%
Jan-18 6,442.64 7,582.77 1,140.13 1,140.13 ### 17.70%
Feb-18 6,858.29 7,314.75 456.46 456.46 208,354.91 6.66%
Mar-18 6,650.47 7,080.26 429.80 429.80 184,724.32 6.46%
Apr-18 7,066.12 6,650.47 -415.65 415.65 172,768.42 5.88%
May-18 7,273.95 6,858.29 -415.65 415.65 172,768.42 5.71%
Jun-18 7,377.86 6,996.85 -381.02 381.02 145,173.47 5.16%
Jul-18 7,585.69 7,239.31 -346.38 346.38 119,978.07 4.57%
Aug-18 7,481.78 7,412.50 -69.28 69.28 4,799.12 0.93%
Sep-18 7,897.43 7,481.78 -415.65 415.65 172,768.42 5.26%
Oct-18 8,001.34 7,654.97 -346.38 346.38 119,978.07 4.33%
Nov-18 8,001.34 7,793.52 -207.83 207.83 43,192.11 2.60%
Dec-18 7,793.52 7,966.71 173.19 173.19 29,994.52 2.22%
Jan-19 7,932.07 7,932.07 -227.93 698.26 864,111.03 10.05%
Feb-19 7,908.98 7,908.98
Mar-19 7,878.19 7,878.19
Apr-19 7,906.41 7,906.41
May-19 7,897.86 7,897.86
Jun-19 7,894.15 7,894.15
Jul-19 7,899.47 7,899.47 ME -227.93
Aug-19 7,897.16 7,897.16 MAD 698.26
Sep-19 7,896.93 7,896.93 MSE 864,111.03
Oct-19 7,897.85 7,897.85 MAPE 10.05%
Nov-19 7,897.31 7,897.31
Dec-19 7,897.37
 W1 0.1
W2 0.4
W3 0.5
N 3
PROMEDIO PONDERADO
Demanda Promedio
Mes Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton ponderado
Jan-16 2,799.20
Feb-16 3,732.27
Mar-16 4,851.95
Apr-16 5,598.40 4,198.80 -1,399.60 1,399.60 ### 25.00%
May-16 6,531.47 5,113.21 -1,418.26 1,418.26 ### 21.71%
Jun-16 7,091.31 5,990.29 -1,101.02 1,101.02 ### 15.53%
Jul-16 7,464.54 6,718.08 -746.45 746.45 557,193.20 10.00%
Aug-16 8,024.38 7,221.94 -802.44 802.44 643,906.39 10.00%
Sep-16 7,837.76 7,707.13 -130.63 130.63 17,064.04 1.67%
Oct-16 8,770.83 7,875.09 -895.74 895.74 802,358.21 10.21%
Nov-16 9,330.67 8,322.96 -1,007.71 1,007.71 ### 10.80%
Dec-16 8,584.22 8,957.45 373.23 373.23 139,298.30 4.35%
Jan-17 6,049.41 8,901.46 2,852.05 2,852.05 ### 47.15%
Feb-17 6,553.53 7,391.46 837.93 837.93 702,127.15 12.79%
Mar-17 7,183.68 6,554.95 -628.73 628.73 395,295.77 8.75%
Apr-17 7,309.71 6,818.19 -491.51 491.51 241,586.79 6.72%
May-17 6,931.62 7,183.68 252.06 252.06 63,533.67 3.64%
Jun-17 7,309.71 7,108.06 -201.65 201.65 40,661.55 2.76%
Jul-17 7,561.77 7,158.47 -403.29 403.29 162,646.20 5.33%
Aug-17 6,427.50 7,397.93 970.43 970.43 941,727.87 15.10%
Sep-17 6,805.59 6,969.43 163.84 163.84 26,842.98 2.41%
Oct-17 7,246.69 6,729.97 -516.72 516.72 267,000.26 7.13%
Nov-17 7,561.77 6,988.33 -573.43 573.43 328,826.47 7.58%
Dec-17 7,939.85 7,360.12 -579.74 579.74 336,093.13 7.30%
Jan-18 6,442.64 7,719.30 1,276.66 1,276.66 ### 19.82%
Feb-18 6,858.29 7,153.44 295.14 295.14 87,109.99 4.30%
Mar-18 6,650.47 6,800.19 149.72 149.72 22,416.50 2.25%
Apr-18 7,066.12 6,712.82 -353.31 353.31 124,825.18 5.00%
May-18 7,273.95 6,879.08 -394.87 394.87 155,923.50 5.43%
Jun-18 7,377.86 7,128.47 -249.39 249.39 62,196.63 3.38%
Jul-18 7,585.69 7,305.12 -280.57 280.57 78,717.61 3.70%
Aug-18 7,481.78 7,471.38 -10.39 10.39 107.98 0.14%
Sep-18 7,897.43 7,512.95 -384.48 384.48 147,824.98 4.87%
Oct-18 8,001.34 7,699.99 -301.35 301.35 90,811.40 3.77%
Nov-18 8,001.34 7,907.82 -93.52 93.52 8,746.40 1.17%
Dec-18 7,793.52 7,990.95 197.44 197.44 38,980.88 2.53%
Jan-19 7,990.95 7,897.43 -169.59 616.16 680,180.21 8.86%
Feb-19 7,897.43 7,913.02
Mar-19 7,913.02 7,924.45
Apr-19 7,924.45 7,914.58
May-19 7,914.58 7,917.17
Jun-19 7,917.17 7,918.37
Jul-19 7,918.37 7,916.86 ME -169.59
Aug-19 7,916.86 7,917.51 MAD 616.16
Sep-19 7,917.51 7,917.50 MSE 680,180.21
Oct-19 7,917.50 7,917.34 MAPE 8.86%
Nov-19 7,917.34 7,917.44
Dec-19 7,917.42
 País Meta Granja Juan
Año
Ton 35% 15%
2016 906,713 317,349.48 47,602.42
2017 892,185 312,264.82 46,839.72
2018 906,979 317,442.58 47,616.39

Proporción Demanda Milanesa Costilla Chorizo

Mes por demanda
ton 35% 15% 10%
1 Jan-16 0.0522 2,484.30 869.50 372.64 248.43
2 Feb-16 0.0381 1,812.84 634.50 271.93 181.28
3 Mar-16 0.0930 4,427.81 1,549.73 664.17 442.78
4 Apr-16 0.1227 5,840.28 2,044.10 876.04 584.03
5 May-16 0.0498 2,371.29 829.95 355.69 237.13
6 Jun-16 0.0631 3,005.44 1,051.90 450.82 300.54
7 Jul-16 0.0631 3,005.44 1,051.90 450.82 300.54
8 Aug-16 0.1204 5,731.42 2,006.00 859.71 573.14
9 Sep-16 0.1160 5,520.66 1,932.23 828.10 552.07
10 Oct-16 0.0843 4,010.83 1,403.79 601.62 401.08
11 Nov-16 0.1181 5,622.59 1,967.91 843.39 562.26
12 Dec-16 0.0792 3,769.52 1,319.33 565.43 376.95
Jan-17 0.0256 1,200.65 420.23 180.10 120.07
Feb-17 0.0490 2,294.15 802.95 344.12 229.42
Mar-17 0.1063 4,980.86 1,743.30 747.13 498.09
Apr-17 0.1198 5,612.03 1,964.21 841.80 561.20
May-17 0.0432 2,024.53 708.58 303.68 202.45
Jun-17 0.1340 6,277.17 2,197.01 941.58 627.72
Jul-17 0.1149 5,380.99 1,883.35 807.15 538.10
Aug-17 0.0726 3,402.04 1,190.71 510.31 340.20
Sep-17 0.0704 3,298.05 1,154.32 494.71 329.80
Oct-17 0.0726 3,402.04 1,190.71 510.31 340.20
Nov-17 0.1322 6,193.70 2,167.79 929.05 619.37
Dec-17 0.0592 2,773.52 970.73 416.03 277.35
Jan-18 0.1496 7,123.94 2,493.38 1,068.59 712.39
Feb-18 0.0298 1,421.34 497.47 213.20 142.13
Mar-18 0.0790 3,761.78 1,316.62 564.27 376.18
Apr-18 0.1580 7,525.54 2,633.94 1,128.83 752.55
May-18 0.0718 3,418.64 1,196.53 512.80 341.86
Jun-18 0.0774 3,684.77 1,289.67 552.72 368.48
Jul-18 0.0284 1,351.15 472.90 202.67 135.11
Aug-18 0.0478 2,277.22 797.03 341.58 227.72
Sep-18 0.0480 2,285.05 799.77 342.76 228.51
Oct-18 0.1441 6,861.52 2,401.53 1,029.23 686.15
Nov-18 0.1236 5,884.35 2,059.52 882.65 588.43
Dec-18 0.0424 2,021.09 707.38 303.16 202.11

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE

Demanda
Mes Yt Dt/Yt St Gt
ton

α 0.15
β 0.25
γ 0.25
Gto 0.26
Sto -7,103.81
N 12
M 3
Suma 12.00

-7,103.81 0.26
Jan-16 2,484.30 3,808.93 0.65 -5,630.32 368.57
Feb-16 1,812.84 3,816.92 0.47 -3,896.53 709.87
Mar-16 4,427.81 3,824.39 1.16 -2,116.79 977.34
Apr-16 5,840.28 3,832.37 1.52 -423.86 1,156.24
May-16 2,371.29 3,840.10 0.62 1,161.23 1,263.45
Jun-16 3,005.44 3,848.08 0.78 2,472.52 1,275.41
Jul-16 3,005.44 3,855.81 0.78 3,731.98 1,271.42
Aug-16 5,731.42 3,863.79 1.48 5,140.73 1,305.75
Sep-16 5,520.66 3,871.78 1.43 6,360.36 1,284.22
Oct-16 4,010.83 3,879.51 1.03 7,002.48 1,123.70
Nov-16 5,622.59 3,887.49 1.45 7,476.37 961.25
Dec-16 3,769.52 3,895.22 0.97 7,958.03 841.35
Jan-17 1,200.65 3,903.20 0.31 7,792.58 589.65
Feb-17 2,294.15 3,911.19 0.59 8,572.09 637.12
Mar-17 4,980.86 3,918.40 1.27 10,172.29 877.89
Apr-17 5,612.03 3,926.38 1.43 9,016.58 369.49
May-17 2,024.53 3,934.11 0.51 8,280.12 93.00
Jun-17 6,277.17 3,942.09 1.59 7,953.76 -11.84
Jul-17 5,380.99 3,949.82 1.36 7,734.58 -63.67
Aug-17 3,402.04 3,957.80 0.86 7,028.06 -224.39
Sep-17 3,298.05 3,965.79 0.83 6,319.63 -345.40
Oct-17 3,402.04 3,973.51 0.86 5,570.00 -446.46
Nov-17 6,193.70 3,981.50 1.56 5,069.96 -459.85
Dec-17 2,773.52 3,989.23 0.70 4,550.95 -474.64
Jan-18 7,123.94 3,997.21 1.78 5,738.82 -59.01
Feb-18 1,421.34 4,005.19 0.35 5,697.17 -54.67
Mar-18 3,761.78 4,012.41 0.94 6,357.37 124.05
 Apr-18 7,525.54 4,020.39 1.87 4,768.13 -304.28
May-18 3,418.64 4,028.12 0.85 4,423.16 -314.45
Jun-18 3,684.77 4,036.10 0.91 4,023.15 -335.84
Jul-18 1,351.15 4,043.83 0.33 3,391.03 -409.91
Aug-18 2,277.22 4,051.81 0.56 2,924.45 -424.08
Sep-18 2,285.05 4,059.80 0.56 2,542.28 -413.60
Oct-18 6,861.52 4,067.52 1.69 2,915.16 -216.98
Nov-18 5,884.35 4,075.51 1.44 2,983.03 -145.77
t Dec-18 2,021.09 4,083.23 0.49 2,881.12 -134.80
1 Jan-19
2 Feb-19
3 Mar-19
4 Apr-19
5 May-19
6 Jun-19
7 Jul-19
8 Aug-19
9 Sep-19
10 Oct-19
11 Nov-19
12 Dec-19

Demanda
Mes Pronostico Et |Et| Et^2
ton
Jan-16 2,484.30 -6,492.79 -8,977.09 8,977.09 80,588,164.77
Feb-16 1,812.84 -2,484.23 -4,297.07 4,297.07 18,464,806.39
Mar-16 4,427.81 -3,575.93 -8,003.74 8,003.74 64,059,813.18
Apr-16 5,840.28 -1,832.66 -7,672.94 7,672.94 58,873,935.47
May-16 2,371.29 483.57 -1,887.72 1,887.72 3,563,491.72
Jun-16 3,005.44 2,656.10 -349.34 349.34 122,041.73
Jul-16 3,005.44 3,093.19 87.75 87.75 7,700.68
Aug-16 5,731.42 4,844.91 -886.51 886.51 785,907.44
Sep-16 5,520.66 6,060.44 539.78 539.78 291,360.74
Oct-16 4,010.83 9,114.72 5,103.89 5,103.89 26,049,679.24
Nov-16 5,622.59 12,042.40 6,419.81 6,419.81 41,213,995.36
Dec-16 3,769.52 6,069.33 2,299.81 2,299.81 5,289,129.66
Jan-17 1,200.65 5,061.47 3,860.81 3,860.81 14,905,873.45
Feb-17 2,294.15 1,993.17 -300.98 300.98 90,590.86
Mar-17 4,980.86 2,934.77 -2,046.09 2,046.09 4,186,475.09
Apr-17 5,612.03 -24,735.33 -30,347.36 30,347.36 920,962,003.03
May-17 2,024.53 9,439.71 7,415.18 7,415.18 54,984,942.68
Jun-17 6,277.17 9,423.64 3,146.47 3,146.47 9,900,288.54
Jul-17 5,380.99 6,514.84 1,133.85 1,133.85 1,285,613.34
Aug-17 3,402.04 7,709.02 4,306.98 4,306.98 18,550,099.73
Sep-17 3,298.05 6,273.54 2,975.49 2,975.49 8,853,525.31
Oct-17 3,402.04 6,197.83 2,795.79 2,795.79 7,816,443.92
Nov-17 6,193.70 6,657.82 464.12 464.12 215,408.92
Dec-17 2,773.52 3,033.03 259.51 259.51 67,345.02
Jan-18 7,123.94 1,915.56 -5,208.38 5,208.38 27,127,236.01
Feb-18 1,421.34 1,392.95 -28.39 28.39 805.96
Mar-18 3,761.78 2,039.32 -1,722.46 1,722.46 2,966,870.10
Apr-18 7,525.54 -9,872.75 -17,398.29 17,398.29 302,700,406.70
May-18 3,418.64 3,639.88 221.24 221.24 48,946.52
Jun-18 3,684.77 4,278.81 594.04 594.04 352,882.42
Jul-18 1,351.15 2,909.87 1,558.72 1,558.72 2,429,611.21
Aug-18 2,277.22 2,607.71 330.49 330.49 109,226.29
Sep-18 2,285.05 2,055.38 -229.68 229.68 52,751.46
Oct-18 6,861.52 1,981.30 -4,880.22 4,880.22 23,816,535.30
Nov-18 5,884.35 3,453.69 -2,430.66 2,430.66 5,908,104.15
Dec-18 2,021.09 1,832.27 -188.81 188.81 35,650.13
-1,481.72 3,899.15 47,407,712.85

ME -1,481.72
MAD 3,899.15
MSE 47,407,712.85
MAPE 101.07%
Otros
40% Consumo 2016-2018 Cerdo
993.72
725.14
8,000.00
1,771.12
2,336.11 7,000.00
948.52
6,000.00
1,202.18
1,202.18 5,000.00
2,292.57 f(x) = − 91.7008599044562 x + 4564.08783937897
4,000.00
2,208.26 R² = 0.02076835600334
1,604.33 3,000.00
2,249.04 2,000.00
1,507.81
480.26 1,000.00
917.66 0.00
1,992.34 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,244.81
2016 2017
809.81 2018 Linear (2018)
2,510.87
2,152.40
1,360.82
1,319.22
1,360.82
2,477.48
1,109.41
2,849.57
568.54
1,504.71
3,010.22
1,367.46
1,473.91
540.46
910.89
914.02
2,744.61
2,353.74
808.43

Ct Ft

0.91 α 0.25
0.47 β 0.35
1.12
1.61 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
0.66 Demanda
Mes St Gt
1.10 ton
0.83 -7,103.81 0.26
0.97 Jan-16 2,484.30 -4,706.59 839.19
0.94 Feb-16 1,812.84 -2,447.33 1,336.21
1.19 Mar-16 4,427.81 273.61 1,820.87
1.48 Apr-16 5,840.28 3,030.93 2,148.63
0.72 May-16 2,371.29 4,477.49 1,902.90
0.58 -6,492.79 Jun-16 3,005.44 5,536.66 1,607.60
0.24 -2,484.23 Jul-16 3,005.44 6,109.55 1,245.45
0.32 -3,575.93 Aug-16 5,731.42 6,949.11 1,103.39
-2.24 -1,832.66 Sep-16 5,520.66 7,419.53 881.85
1.01 483.57 Oct-16 4,010.83 7,228.75 506.43
1.13 2,656.10 Nov-16 5,622.59 7,207.03 321.58
0.82 3,093.19 Dec-16 3,769.52 6,588.83 -7.34
1.00 4,844.91 Jan-17 1,200.65 5,236.28 -478.17
0.92 6,060.44 Feb-17 2,294.15 4,142.12 -693.76
1.04 9,114.72 Mar-17 4,980.86 3,831.48 -559.67
1.30 12,042.40 Apr-17 5,612.03 3,856.87 -354.90
0.66 6,069.33 May-17 2,024.53 3,132.61 -484.18
0.47 5,061.47 Jun-17 6,277.17 3,555.61 -166.66
0.25 1,993.17 Jul-17 5,380.99 3,886.96 7.64
0.36 2,934.77 Aug-17 3,402.04 3,771.46 -35.46
-1.52 -24,735.33 Sep-17 3,298.05 3,626.51 -73.78
0.82 9,439.71 Oct-17 3,402.04 3,515.06 -86.97
1.04 9,423.64 Nov-17 6,193.70 4,119.50 155.02
0.79 6,514.84 Dec-17 2,773.52 3,899.27 23.69
0.87 7,709.02 Jan-18 7,123.94 4,723.20 303.77
0.82 6,273.54 Feb-18 1,421.34 4,125.57 -11.72
0.93 6,197.83 Mar-18 3,761.78 4,025.83 -42.53
1.28 6,657.82 Apr-18 7,525.54 4,868.86 267.42
0.65 3,033.03 May-18 3,418.64 4,706.87 117.13
0.66 1,915.56 Jun-18 3,684.77 4,539.19 17.44
0.25 1,392.95 Jul-18 1,351.15 3,755.26 -263.04
0.42 2,039.32 Aug-18 2,277.22 3,188.48 -369.35
 -0.75 -9,872.75 Sep-18 2,285.05 2,685.61 -416.08
0.80 3,639.88 Oct-18 6,861.52 3,417.52 -14.28
1.01 4,278.81 Nov-18 5,884.35 4,023.52 202.81
0.69 2,909.87 t Dec-18 2,021.09 3,675.02 9.86
0.85 2,607.71 1 Jan-20
0.84 2,055.38 2 Feb-20
1.29 1,981.30 3 Mar-20
1.45 3,453.69 4 Apr-20
0.66 1,832.27 5 May-20
1811.79 6 Jun-20
1722.85 7 Jul-20
1633.92 8 Aug-20
1544.99 9 Sep-20
1456.06 10 Oct-20
1367.12 11 Nov-20
1278.19 12 Dec-20
1189.26
1100.32
1011.39
922.46
833.53

Demanda
%Et Mes Ft Et |Et|
ton
361.35% Jan-16 2,484.30 -3,867.39 -6,351.69 6,351.69
237.03% Feb-16 1,812.84 -1,111.12 -2,923.96 2,923.96
180.76% Mar-16 4,427.81 2,094.48 -2,333.33 2,333.33
131.38% Apr-16 5,840.28 5,179.56 -660.72 660.72
79.61% May-16 2,371.29 6,380.40 4,009.11 4,009.11
11.62% Jun-16 3,005.44 7,144.25 4,138.81 4,138.81
2.92% Jul-16 3,005.44 7,355.00 4,349.56 4,349.56
15.47% Aug-16 5,731.42 8,052.49 2,321.07 2,321.07
9.78% Sep-16 5,520.66 8,301.39 2,780.73 2,780.73
127.25% Oct-16 4,010.83 7,735.17 3,724.34 3,724.34
114.18% Nov-16 5,622.59 7,528.60 1,906.02 1,906.02
61.01% Dec-16 3,769.52 6,581.49 2,811.97 2,811.97
321.56% Jan-17 1,200.65 4,758.11 3,557.46 3,557.46
13.12% Feb-17 2,294.15 3,448.36 1,154.21 1,154.21
41.08% Mar-17 4,980.86 3,271.81 -1,709.04 1,709.04
540.76% Apr-17 5,612.03 3,501.97 -2,110.06 2,110.06
366.27% May-17 2,024.53 2,648.43 623.90 623.90
50.13% Jun-17 6,277.17 3,388.95 -2,888.22 2,888.22
21.07% Jul-17 5,380.99 3,894.60 -1,486.39 1,486.39
126.60% Aug-17 3,402.04 3,736.00 333.96 333.96
 90.22% Sep-17 3,298.05 3,552.74 254.69 254.69
82.18% Oct-17 3,402.04 3,428.10 26.06 26.06
7.49% Nov-17 6,193.70 4,274.52 -1,919.18 1,919.18
9.36% Dec-17 2,773.52 3,922.96 1,149.44 1,149.44
73.11% Jan-18 7,123.94 5,026.98 -2,096.96 2,096.96
2.00% Feb-18 1,421.34 4,113.85 2,692.50 2,692.50
45.79% Mar-18 3,761.78 3,983.30 221.53 221.53
231.19% Apr-18 7,525.54 5,136.28 -2,389.26 2,389.26
6.47% May-18 3,418.64 4,824.00 1,405.35 1,405.35
16.12% Jun-18 3,684.77 4,556.64 871.86 871.86
115.36% Jul-18 1,351.15 3,492.23 2,141.08 2,141.08
14.51% Aug-18 2,277.22 2,819.13 541.91 541.91
10.05% Sep-18 2,285.05 2,269.53 -15.53 15.53
71.12% Oct-18 6,861.52 3,403.24 -3,458.28 3,458.28
41.31% Nov-18 5,884.35 4,226.33 -1,658.01 1,658.01
9.34% Dec-18 2,021.09 3,684.88 1,663.79 1,663.79
101.07% 296.63 2,074.44

ME 296.63
MAD 2,074.44
MSE 6,261,220.52
MAPE 69.54%
Cerdo

8 9 10 11 12

7
ar (2018)
 α 0.25
AL DOBLE SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
Demanda
Ft Mes
ton Ft Et |Et|

-3,867.39 Jan-16 2,484.30 2,484.30 0.00 0.00

-1,111.12 Feb-16 1,812.84 2,484.30 671.45 671.45
2,094.48 Mar-16 4,427.81 2,316.43 -2,111.38 2,111.38
5,179.56 Apr-16 5,840.28 2,844.28 -2,996.00 2,996.00
6,380.40 May-16 2,371.29 3,593.28 1,221.99 1,221.99
7,144.25 Jun-16 3,005.44 3,287.78 282.34 282.34
7,355.00 Jul-16 3,005.44 3,217.20 211.76 211.76
8,052.49 Aug-16 5,731.42 3,164.26 -2,567.17 2,567.17
8,301.39 Sep-16 5,520.66 3,806.05 -1,714.61 1,714.61
7,735.17 Oct-16 4,010.83 4,234.70 223.87 223.87
7,528.60 Nov-16 5,622.59 4,178.73 -1,443.85 1,443.85
6,581.49 Dec-16 3,769.52 4,539.70 770.18 770.18
4,758.11 Jan-17 1,200.65 4,347.15 3,146.50 3,146.50
3,448.36 Feb-17 2,294.15 3,560.53 1,266.38 1,266.38
3,271.81 Mar-17 4,980.86 3,243.93 -1,736.92 1,736.92
3,501.97 Apr-17 5,612.03 3,678.16 -1,933.86 1,933.86
2,648.43 May-17 2,024.53 4,161.63 2,137.10 2,137.10
3,388.95 Jun-17 6,277.17 3,627.35 -2,649.81 2,649.81
3,894.60 Jul-17 5,380.99 4,289.81 -1,091.18 1,091.18
3,736.00 Aug-17 3,402.04 4,562.60 1,160.56 1,160.56
3,552.74 Sep-17 3,298.05 4,272.46 974.41 974.41
3,428.10 Oct-17 3,402.04 4,028.86 626.82 626.82
4,274.52 Nov-17 6,193.70 3,872.15 -2,321.54 2,321.54
3,922.96 Dec-17 2,773.52 4,452.54 1,679.02 1,679.02
5,026.98 Jan-18 7,123.94 4,032.79 -3,091.15 3,091.15
4,113.85 Feb-18 1,421.34 4,805.57 3,384.23 3,384.23
3,983.30 Mar-18 3,761.78 3,959.52 197.74 197.74
5,136.28 Apr-18 7,525.54 3,910.08 -3,615.46 3,615.46
4,824.00 May-18 3,418.64 4,813.95 1,395.30 1,395.30
4,556.64 Jun-18 3,684.77 4,465.12 780.35 780.35
3,492.23 Jul-18 1,351.15 4,270.03 2,918.88 2,918.88
2,819.13 Aug-18 2,277.22 3,540.31 1,263.09 1,263.09
 2,269.53 Sep-18 2,285.05 3,224.54 939.49 939.49
3,403.24 Oct-18 6,861.52 2,989.67 -3,871.85 3,871.85
4,226.33 Nov-18 5,884.35 3,957.63 -1,926.72 1,926.72
3,684.88 Dec-18 2,021.09 4,439.31 2,418.22 2,418.22
3,694.73 Jan-19 4,439.31 3,834.75 -150.05 1,687.26
3,704.59 Feb-19 3,834.75 3,985.89
3,714.45 Mar-19 3,985.89 3,948.11
3,724.30 Apr-19 3,948.11 3,957.55
3,734.16 May-19 3,957.55 3,955.19
3,744.01 Jun-19 3,955.19 3,955.78 ME
3,753.87 Jul-19 3,955.78 3,955.64 MAD
3,763.72 Aug-19 3,955.64 3,955.67 MSE
3,773.58 Sep-19 3,955.67 3,955.66 MAPE
3,783.44 Oct-19 3,955.66 3,955.67
3,793.29 Nov-19 3,955.67 3,955.66
3,675.02 Dec-19 3,955.67

Et^2 %Et

40,343,975.67 255.67%
8,549,562.83 161.29%
5,444,405.83 52.70%
436,549.76 11.31%
16,072,939.60 169.07%
17,129,787.40 137.71%
18,918,678.24 144.72%
5,387,364.86 40.50%
7,732,442.67 50.37%
13,870,727.87 92.86%
3,632,898.55 33.90%
7,907,165.22 74.60%
12,655,528.23 296.29%
1,332,196.30 50.31%
2,920,821.75 34.31%
4,452,357.02 37.60%
389,254.13 30.82%
8,341,798.30 46.01%
2,209,348.62 27.62%
111,531.65 9.82%
 64,865.31 7.72%
678.93 0.77%
3,683,233.90 30.99%
1,321,206.52 41.44%
4,397,245.44 29.44%
7,249,578.98 189.43%
49,074.14 5.89%
5,708,553.10 31.75%
1,975,020.63 41.11%
760,147.51 23.66%
4,584,217.32 158.46%
293,663.70 23.80%
241.07 0.68%
11,959,669.25 50.40%
2,749,007.15 28.18%
2,768,201.19 82.32%
6,261,220.52 69.54%
 N 3
L SIMPLE PROMEDIO MOVIL
Demanda Promedio
Mes Et |Et|
Et^2 %Et ton movil
Jan-16 2,484.30
0.00 0.00% Feb-16 1,812.84
450,848.82 37.04% Mar-16 4,427.81
4,457,905.23 47.68% Apr-16 5,840.28 2,908.32 -2,931.96 2,931.96
8,976,034.16 51.30% May-16 2,371.29 4,026.98 1,655.69 1,655.69
1,493,251.17 51.53% Jun-16 3,005.44 4,213.13 1,207.69 1,207.69
79,716.58 9.39% Jul-16 3,005.44 3,739.00 733.56 733.56
44,840.57 7.05% Aug-16 5,731.42 2,794.06 -2,937.37 2,937.37
6,590,342.32 44.79% Sep-16 5,520.66 3,914.10 -1,606.56 1,606.56
2,939,886.98 31.06% Oct-16 4,010.83 4,752.51 741.68 741.68
50,117.26 5.58% Nov-16 5,622.59 5,087.64 -534.95 534.95
2,084,714.99 25.68% Dec-16 3,769.52 5,051.36 1,281.84 1,281.84
593,169.54 20.43% Jan-17 1,200.65 4,467.65 3,266.99 3,266.99
9,900,460.23 262.07% Feb-17 2,294.15 3,530.92 1,236.77 1,236.77
1,603,707.03 55.20% Mar-17 4,980.86 2,421.44 -2,559.41 2,559.41
3,016,896.23 34.87% Apr-17 5,612.03 2,825.22 -2,786.81 2,786.81
3,739,825.31 34.46% May-17 2,024.53 4,295.68 2,271.15 2,271.15
4,567,210.11 105.56% Jun-17 6,277.17 4,205.80 -2,071.37 2,071.37
7,021,516.74 42.21% Jul-17 5,380.99 4,637.91 -743.08 743.08
1,190,677.86 20.28% Aug-17 3,402.04 4,560.90 1,158.86 1,158.86
1,346,908.66 34.11% Sep-17 3,298.05 5,020.07 1,722.02 1,722.02
949,483.13 29.55% Oct-17 3,402.04 4,027.03 624.99 624.99
392,902.55 18.42% Nov-17 6,193.70 3,367.38 -2,826.32 2,826.32
5,389,556.27 37.48% Dec-17 2,773.52 4,297.93 1,524.41 1,524.41
2,819,106.00 60.54% Jan-18 7,123.94 4,123.09 -3,000.85 3,000.85
9,555,216.79 43.39% Feb-18 1,421.34 5,363.72 3,942.37 3,942.37
### 238.10% Mar-18 3,761.78 3,772.93 11.16 11.16
39,100.66 5.26% Apr-18 7,525.54 4,102.35 -3,423.19 3,423.19
### 48.04% May-18 3,418.64 4,236.22 817.58 817.58
1,946,864.68 40.81% Jun-18 3,684.77 4,901.99 1,217.22 1,217.22
608,944.37 21.18% Jul-18 1,351.15 4,876.32 3,525.17 3,525.17
8,519,881.88 216.03% Aug-18 2,277.22 2,818.19 540.97 540.97
1,595,405.44 55.47% Sep-18 2,285.05 2,437.71 152.66 152.66
 882,632.71 41.11% Oct-18 6,861.52 1,971.14 -4,890.38 4,890.38
### 56.43% Nov-18 5,884.35 3,807.93 -2,076.42 2,076.42
3,712,238.05 32.74% Dec-18 2,021.09 5,010.31 2,989.22 2,989.22
5,847,800.20 119.65% Jan-19 4,922.32 4,922.32 -53.54 1,909.41
3,942,304.19 55.13% Feb-19 4,275.92 4,275.92
Mar-19 3,739.77 3,739.77
Apr-19 4,312.67 4,312.67
May-19 4,109.45 4,109.45
Jun-19 4,053.97 4,053.97
-150.05 Jul-19 4,158.70 4,158.70 ME
1687.26 Aug-19 4,107.37 4,107.37 MAD
3,942,304.19 Sep-19 4,106.68 4,106.68 MSE
55.13% Oct-19 4,124.25 4,124.25 MAPE
Nov-19 4,112.77 4,112.77
Dec-19 4,114.56
 W1 0.1
W2 0.4
W3 0.5
N 3
VIL PROMEDIO PONDERADO
Demanda Promedio
Et^2 %Et Mes Et |Et|
ton ponderado
Jan-16 2,484.30
Feb-16 1,812.84
Mar-16 4,427.81
8,596,412.27 50.20% Apr-16 5,840.28 3,187.47 -2,652.81 2,652.81
2,741,296.66 69.82% May-16 2,371.29 4,872.55 2,501.26 2,501.26
1,458,507.09 40.18% Jun-16 3,005.44 3,964.54 959.10 959.10
538,115.89 24.41% Jul-16 3,005.44 3,035.26 29.82 29.82
8,628,119.30 51.25% Aug-16 5,731.42 2,942.02 -2,789.40 2,789.40
2,581,026.39 29.10% Sep-16 5,520.66 4,368.43 -1,152.23 1,152.23
550,081.88 18.49% Oct-16 4,010.83 5,353.44 1,342.61 1,342.61
286,171.60 9.51% Nov-16 5,622.59 4,786.82 -835.77 835.77
1,643,106.57 34.01% Dec-16 3,769.52 4,967.69 1,198.17 1,198.17
10,673,247.10 272.10% Jan-17 1,200.65 4,534.88 3,334.23 3,334.23
1,529,595.82 53.91% Feb-17 2,294.15 2,670.39 376.24 376.24
6,550,595.63 51.39% Mar-17 4,980.86 2,004.29 -2,976.57 2,976.57
7,766,292.41 49.66% Apr-17 5,612.03 3,528.15 -2,083.87 2,083.87
5,158,128.98 112.18% May-17 2,024.53 5,027.77 3,003.24 3,003.24
4,290,555.33 33.00% Jun-17 6,277.17 3,755.16 -2,522.01 2,522.01
552,171.10 13.81% Jul-17 5,380.99 4,509.60 -871.39 871.39
1,342,946.54 34.06% Aug-17 3,402.04 5,403.82 2,001.78 2,001.78
2,965,345.47 52.21% Sep-17 3,298.05 4,481.13 1,183.08 1,183.08
390,607.93 18.37% Oct-17 3,402.04 3,547.94 145.90 145.90
7,988,085.29 45.63% Nov-17 6,193.70 3,360.44 -2,833.25 2,833.25
2,323,818.87 54.96% Dec-17 2,773.52 4,787.47 2,013.95 2,013.95
9,005,105.92 42.12% Jan-18 7,123.94 4,204.44 -2,919.49 2,919.49
15,542,317.74 277.37% Feb-18 1,421.34 5,290.75 3,869.40 3,869.40
124.47 0.30% Mar-18 3,761.78 3,837.60 75.82 75.82
11,718,214.92 45.49% Apr-18 7,525.54 3,161.82 -4,363.72 4,363.72
668,429.31 23.92% May-18 3,418.64 5,409.61 1,990.97 1,990.97
1,481,613.84 33.03% Jun-18 3,684.77 5,095.72 1,410.94 1,410.94
12,426,818.07 260.90% Jul-18 1,351.15 3,962.40 2,611.25 2,611.25
292,648.45 23.76% Aug-18 2,277.22 2,491.35 214.13 214.13
23,304.99 6.68% Sep-18 2,285.05 2,047.55 -237.51 237.51
23,915,799.24 71.27% Oct-18 6,861.52 2,188.53 -4,672.99 4,672.99
4,311,507.26 35.29% Nov-18 5,884.35 4,572.50 -1,311.84 1,311.84
8,935,433.10 147.90% Dec-18 2,021.09 5,915.29 3,894.20 3,894.20
5,056,834.71 63.22% Jan-19 5,915.29 4,050.43 -2.02 1,950.88
Feb-19 4,050.43 4,354.51
Mar-19 4,354.51 4,593.44
Apr-19 4,593.44 4,388.96
May-19 4,388.96 4,443.57
Jun-19 4,443.57 4,467.31
-53.54 Jul-19 4,467.31 4,436.71 ME
1,909.41 Aug-19 4,436.71 4,449.98 MAD
5,056,834.71 Sep-19 4,449.98 4,449.64 MSE
63.22% Oct-19 4,449.64 4,446.40 MAPE
Nov-19 4,446.40 4,448.48
Dec-19 4,448.05
ERADO
Et^2 %Et

7,037,394.22 45.42%
6,256,284.32 105.48%
919,870.08 31.91%
889.50 0.99%
7,780,741.32 48.67%
1,327,626.56 20.87%
1,802,602.47 33.47%
698,505.22 14.86%
1,435,612.24 31.79%
11,117,060.84 277.70%
141,557.72 16.40%
8,859,944.59 59.76%
4,342,527.42 37.13%
9,019,475.40 148.34%
6,360,528.86 40.18%
759,323.87 16.19%
4,007,105.73 58.84%
1,399,688.61 35.87%
21,286.63 4.29%
8,027,321.71 45.74%
4,055,988.16 72.61%
8,523,443.30 40.98%
14,972,279.20 272.24%
5,748.91 2.02%
19,042,058.27 57.99%
3,963,962.71 58.24%
1,990,764.37 38.29%
6,818,616.80 193.26%
45,851.30 9.40%
56,409.69 10.39%
21,836,831.98 68.10%
1,720,936.21 22.29%
15,164,789.39 192.68%
5,439,788.71 64.01%

-2.02
1,950.88
5,439,788.71
64.01%
 País Meta Granja Juan
Año
Ton 35% 15%
2016 424,108 148,437.66 22,265.65
2017 463,345 162,170.68 24,325.60
2018 498,340 174,419.00 26,162.85

Proporción
Mes por Demanda Para asar sobrebarriga cadera hueso
demanda Ton 30% 8% 5% 15%
1 Jan-16 0.0577 1,285.28 385.59 102.82 64.26 192.79
2 Feb-16 0.1205 2,683.97 805.19 214.72 134.20 402.60
3 Mar-16 0.0374 831.65 249.50 66.53 41.58 124.75
4 Apr-16 0.0917 2,041.33 612.40 163.31 102.07 306.20
5 May-16 0.0475 1,058.47 317.54 84.68 52.92 158.77
6 Jun-16 0.0255 567.04 170.11 45.36 28.35 85.06
7 Jul-16 0.1426 3,175.41 952.62 254.03 158.77 476.31
8 Aug-16 0.0679 1,512.10 453.63 120.97 75.60 226.81
9 Sep-16 0.0594 1,323.09 396.93 105.85 66.15 198.46
10 Oct-16 0.1409 3,137.60 941.28 251.01 156.88 470.64
11 Nov-16 0.0781 1,738.91 521.67 139.11 86.95 260.84
12 Dec-16 0.1307 2,910.79 873.24 232.86 145.54 436.62
Jan-17 0.1257 3,056.85 917.05 244.55 152.84 458.53
Feb-17 0.1115 2,712.41 813.72 216.99 135.62 406.86
Mar-17 0.0248 602.76 180.83 48.22 30.14 90.41
Apr-17 0.0637 1,549.95 464.98 124.00 77.50 232.49
May-17 0.1735 4,219.31 1,265.79 337.54 210.97 632.90
Jun-17 0.0354 861.08 258.32 68.89 43.05 129.16
Jul-17 0.1611 3,917.93 1,175.38 313.43 195.90 587.69
Aug-17 0.0354 861.08 258.32 68.89 43.05 129.16
Sep-17 0.0637 1,549.95 464.98 124.00 77.50 232.49
Oct-17 0.0973 2,367.98 710.39 189.44 118.40 355.20
Nov-17 0.0513 1,248.57 374.57 99.89 62.43 187.29
Dec-17 0.0566 1,377.73 413.32 110.22 68.89 206.66
Jan-18 0.0447 1,170.34 351.10 93.63 58.52 175.55
Feb-18 0.0592 1,547.87 464.36 123.83 77.39 232.18
Mar-18 0.0216 566.30 169.89 45.30 28.31 84.94
Apr-18 0.0981 2,567.21 770.16 205.38 128.36 385.08
May-18 0.1443 3,775.30 1,132.59 302.02 188.77 566.30
Jun-18 0.1025 2,680.47 804.14 214.44 134.02 402.07
Jul-18 0.1342 3,511.03 1,053.31 280.88 175.55 526.65
Aug-18 0.1414 3,699.80 1,109.94 295.98 184.99 554.97
Sep-18 0.0505 1,321.36 396.41 105.71 66.07 198.20
Oct-18 0.0924 2,416.19 724.86 193.30 120.81 362.43
Nov-18 0.0433 1,132.59 339.78 90.61 56.63 169.89
Dec-18 0.0678 1,774.39 532.32 141.95 88.72 266.16

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE

Demanda
Mes Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
Ton
0.95
α 0.15 1.20
β 0.25 0.34
γ 0.25 1.03
Gto 0.44 1.48
Sto -16,702.91 0.66
N 12 1.75
M 3 0.97
Suma 12.00 0.68
1.29
0.67
-16,702.91 0.44 0.98
Jan-16 1,285.28 1,788.57 0.72 -13,993.65 677.64 0.69
Feb-16 2,683.97 1,802.10 1.49 -10,983.27 1,260.83 0.57
Mar-16 831.65 1,814.76 0.46 -7,900.40 1,716.34 0.15
Apr-16 2,041.33 1,828.29 1.12 -4,959.38 2,022.51 0.40
May-16 1,058.47 1,841.38 0.57 -2,388.86 2,159.51 0.64
Jun-16 567.04 1,854.91 0.31 -65.19 2,200.55 -3.43
Jul-16 3,175.41 1,868.00 1.70 2,087.85 2,188.67 1.65
Aug-16 1,512.10 1,881.53 0.80 3,869.10 2,086.82 0.72
Sep-16 1,323.09 1,895.06 0.70 5,353.03 1,936.09 0.49
Oct-16 3,137.60 1,908.15 1.64 6,560.14 1,753.85 0.94
Nov-16 1,738.91 1,921.68 0.90 7,456.12 1,539.38 0.48
Dec-16 2,910.79 1,934.78 1.50 8,090.22 1,313.06 0.71
Jan-17 3,056.85 1,948.31 1.57 8,659.49 1,127.11 0.54
Feb-17 2,712.41 1,961.84 1.38 9,032.46 938.58 0.45
Mar-17 602.76 1,974.06 0.31 9,088.88 718.04 0.11
Apr-17 1,549.95 1,987.58 0.78 8,915.32 495.14 0.30
May-17 4,219.31 2,000.68 2.11 8,989.13 389.81 0.57
Jun-17 861.08 2,014.21 0.43 7,934.40 28.67 -1.88
Jul-17 3,917.93 2,027.30 1.93 7,125.27 -180.78 1.17
Aug-17 861.08 2,040.83 0.42 6,083.03 -396.14 0.47
Sep-17 1,549.95 2,054.36 0.75 5,305.54 -491.48 0.41
Oct-17 2,367.98 2,067.45 1.15 4,471.18 -577.20 0.76
Nov-17 1,248.57 2,080.98 0.60 3,700.50 -625.57 0.42
Dec-17 1,377.73 2,094.07 0.66 2,904.29 -668.23 0.61
Jan-18 1,170.34 2,107.60 0.56 2,224.74 -671.06 0.53
Feb-18 1,547.87 2,121.13 0.73 1,834.00 -600.98 0.62
Mar-18 566.30 2,133.35 0.27 1,806.51 -457.61 0.20
 Apr-18 2,567.21 2,146.88 1.20 2,421.66 -189.42 0.63
May-18 3,775.30 2,159.97 1.75 2,899.61 -22.58 0.89
Jun-18 2,680.47 2,173.50 1.23 2,232.07 -183.82 -0.54
Jul-18 3,511.03 2,186.60 1.61 2,191.68 -147.96 1.36
Aug-18 3,699.80 2,200.13 1.68 2,928.87 73.33 0.81
Sep-18 1,321.36 2,213.65 0.60 3,040.92 83.01 0.42
Oct-18 2,416.19 2,226.75 1.09 3,132.85 85.24 0.76
Nov-18 1,132.59 2,240.28 0.51 3,142.33 66.30 0.39
t Dec-18 1,774.39 2,253.37 0.79 3,165.22 55.45 0.59
1 Jan-19
2 Feb-19
3 Mar-19
4 Apr-19
5 May-19
6 Jun-19
7 Jul-19
8 Aug-19
9 Sep-19
10 Oct-19
11 Nov-19
12 Dec-19

Demanda
Mes Pronostico Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton
Jan-16 1,285.28 -15,827.71 -17,113.00 17,113.00 292,854,620.70 1331.46%
Feb-16 2,683.97 -15,986.70 -18,670.67 18,670.67 348,594,090.76 695.64%
Mar-16 831.65 -3,335.00 -4,166.65 4,166.65 17,360,982.68 501.01%
Apr-16 2,041.33 -6,373.97 -8,415.30 8,415.30 70,817,337.22 412.25%
May-16 1,058.47 -4,338.35 -5,396.82 5,396.82 29,125,689.21 509.87%
Jun-16 567.04 -150.33 -717.37 717.37 514,619.84 126.51%
Jul-16 3,175.41 3,728.48 553.08 553.08 305,892.78 17.42%
Aug-16 1,512.10 4,144.26 2,632.16 2,632.16 6,928,249.83 174.07%
Sep-16 1,323.09 4,069.00 2,745.91 2,745.91 7,540,029.87 207.54%
Oct-16 3,137.60 9,414.52 6,276.91 6,276.91 39,399,611.77 200.05%
Nov-16 1,738.91 5,571.60 3,832.68 3,832.68 14,689,461.71 220.41%
Dec-16 2,910.79 8,845.03 5,934.24 5,934.24 35,215,175.90 203.87%
Jan-17 3,056.85 6,467.19 3,410.34 3,410.34 11,630,417.81 111.56%
Feb-17 2,712.41 5,577.90 2,865.49 2,865.49 8,211,011.60 105.64%
Mar-17 602.76 1,469.48 866.72 866.72 751,207.05 143.79%
Apr-17 1,549.95 3,934.92 2,384.97 2,384.97 5,688,086.98 153.87%
May-17 4,219.31 6,014.54 1,795.23 1,795.23 3,222,865.75 42.55%
Jun-17 861.08 -32,141.84 -33,002.93 33,002.93 ### 3832.72%
Jul-17 3,917.93 13,121.50 9,203.57 9,203.57 84,705,669.92 234.91%
Aug-17 861.08 4,977.13 4,116.05 4,116.05 16,941,857.93 478.01%
Sep-17 1,549.95 2,803.03 1,253.08 1,253.08 1,570,219.63 80.85%
Oct-17 2,367.98 4,509.03 2,141.05 2,141.05 4,584,090.29 90.42%
Nov-17 1,248.57 1,867.01 618.43 618.43 382,461.72 49.53%
Dec-17 1,377.73 2,186.79 809.06 809.06 654,576.22 58.72%
Jan-18 1,170.34 1,211.19 40.84 40.84 1,668.15 3.49%
Feb-18 1,547.87 702.68 -845.19 845.19 714,353.29 54.60%
Mar-18 566.30 138.10 -428.20 428.20 183,353.01 75.61%
Apr-18 2,567.21 407.37 -2,159.84 2,159.84 4,664,897.00 84.13%
May-18 3,775.30 1,261.32 -2,513.98 2,513.98 6,320,087.64 66.59%
Jun-18 2,680.47 -5,420.37 -8,100.83 8,100.83 65,623,515.42 302.22%
Jul-18 3,511.03 2,393.64 -1,117.39 1,117.39 1,248,563.12 31.83%
Aug-18 3,699.80 951.74 -2,748.06 2,748.06 7,551,809.00 74.28%
Sep-18 1,321.36 1,216.72 -104.63 104.63 10,947.73 7.92%
Oct-18 2,416.19 2,371.06 -45.14 45.14 2,037.40 1.87%
Nov-18 1,132.59 1,343.43 210.84 210.84 44,454.41 18.62%
Dec-18 1,774.39 1,950.29 175.90 175.90 30,939.67 9.91%
-1,491.10 4,372.57 60,479,943.24 297.60%

ME -1,491.10
MAD 4,372.57
MSE 60,479,943.24
MAPE 297.60%
 Consumo 2016-2018 Res
4,500.00
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
otros 2,500.00
f(x) = − 91.9793478680611 x + 2624.9992611424
42% 2,000.00 R² = 0.074411730918558
539.82
1,500.00
1,127.27
1,000.00
349.29
500.00
857.36
444.56 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
238.16
1,333.67 2016 2017
635.08 Linear (2017) 2018

555.70
1,317.79
730.34
1,222.53
1,283.88
1,139.21
253.16
650.98
1,772.11
361.65
1,645.53
361.65
650.98
994.55
524.40
578.65
491.54
650.11
237.84
1,078.23
1,585.63
1,125.80
1,474.63
1,553.91
554.97
1,014.80
475.69
 745.24

Ft

α 0.25
β 0.35

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

Demanda
Mes St Gt Ft
Ton
-16,702.91 0.44
Jan-16 1,285.28 -12,205.53 1,574.37 -10,631.17
Feb-16 2,683.97 -7,302.38 2,739.44 -4,562.94
Mar-16 831.65 -3,214.29 3,211.47 -2.83
Apr-16 2,041.33 508.21 3,390.33 3,898.54
May-16 1,058.47 3,188.53 3,141.82 6,330.35
-15,827.71 Jun-16 567.04 4,889.52 2,637.53 7,527.06
-15,986.70 Jul-16 3,175.41 6,439.14 2,256.77 8,695.91
-3,335.00 Aug-16 1,512.10 6,899.96 1,628.18 8,528.14
-6,373.97 Sep-16 1,323.09 6,726.88 997.74 7,724.62
-4,338.35 Oct-16 3,137.60 6,577.86 596.38 7,174.24
-150.33 Nov-16 1,738.91 5,815.41 120.79 5,936.19
3,728.48 Dec-16 2,910.79 5,179.84 -143.94 5,035.90
4,144.26 Jan-17 3,056.85 4,541.14 -317.11 4,224.03
4,069.00 Feb-17 2,712.41 3,846.13 -449.37 3,396.76
9,414.52 Mar-17 602.76 2,698.26 -693.85 2,004.41
5,571.60 Apr-17 1,549.95 1,890.80 -733.61 1,157.18
8,845.03 May-17 4,219.31 1,922.71 -465.68 1,457.04
6,467.19 Jun-17 861.08 1,308.05 -517.82 790.23
5,577.90 Jul-17 3,917.93 1,572.15 -244.15 1,328.00
1,469.48 Aug-17 861.08 1,211.27 -285.00 926.27
3,934.92 Sep-17 1,549.95 1,082.19 -230.43 851.76
6,014.54 Oct-17 2,367.98 1,230.81 -97.76 1,133.05
-32,141.84 Nov-17 1,248.57 1,161.93 -87.65 1,074.28
13,121.50 Dec-17 1,377.73 1,150.14 -61.10 1,089.04
4,977.13 Jan-18 1,170.34 1,109.36 -53.99 1,055.38
2,803.03 Feb-18 1,547.87 1,178.50 -10.89 1,167.61
4,509.03 Mar-18 566.30 1,017.28 -63.51 953.77
1,867.01 Apr-18 2,567.21 1,357.13 77.67 1,434.80
2,186.79 May-18 3,775.30 2,019.92 282.46 2,302.38
1,211.19 Jun-18 2,680.47 2,396.90 315.54 2,712.45
702.68 Jul-18 3,511.03 2,912.09 385.42 3,297.51
138.10 Aug-18 3,699.80 3,398.08 420.62 3,818.70
 407.37 Sep-18 1,321.36 3,194.37 202.10 3,396.47
1,261.32 Oct-18 2,416.19 3,151.40 116.33 3,267.73
-5,420.37 Nov-18 1,132.59 2,733.94 -70.50 2,663.45
2,393.64 t Dec-18 1,774.39 2,441.18 -148.29 2,292.89
951.74 1 Jan-20 2,292.89
1,216.72 2 Feb-20 2,144.60
2,371.06 3 Mar-20 1,996.32
1,343.43 4 Apr-20 1,848.03
1,950.29 5 May-20 1,699.74
1,891.21 6 Jun-20 1,551.45
1,923.77 7 Jul-20 1,403.16
1,956.33 8 Aug-20 1,254.87
1,988.89 9 Sep-20 1,106.58
2,021.45 10 Oct-20 958.29
2,054.01 11 Nov-20 810.00
2,086.57 12 Dec-20 661.71
2,119.13
2,151.68
2,184.24
2,216.80
2,249.36

Demanda
Mes Ft Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton
Jan-16 1,285.28 -10,631.17 -11,916.45 11,916.45 142,001,829.20 927.15%
Feb-16 2,683.97 -4,562.94 -7,246.92 7,246.92 52,517,808.68 270.01%
Mar-16 831.65 -2.83 -834.48 834.48 696,357.14 100.34%
Apr-16 2,041.33 3,898.54 1,857.21 1,857.21 3,449,236.62 90.98%
May-16 1,058.47 6,330.35 5,271.88 5,271.88 27,792,735.43 498.07%
Jun-16 567.04 7,527.06 6,960.02 6,960.02 48,441,875.70 1227.44%
Jul-16 3,175.41 8,695.91 5,520.50 5,520.50 30,475,951.12 173.85%
Aug-16 1,512.10 8,528.14 7,016.04 7,016.04 49,224,818.21 463.99%
Sep-16 1,323.09 7,724.62 6,401.53 6,401.53 40,979,573.26 483.83%
Oct-16 3,137.60 7,174.24 4,036.63 4,036.63 16,294,417.45 128.65%
Nov-16 1,738.91 5,936.19 4,197.28 4,197.28 17,617,154.01 241.37%
Dec-16 2,910.79 5,035.90 2,125.11 2,125.11 4,516,113.02 73.01%
Jan-17 3,056.85 4,224.03 1,167.19 1,167.19 1,362,329.90 38.18%
Feb-17 2,712.41 3,396.76 684.34 684.34 468,327.49 25.23%
Mar-17 602.76 2,004.41 1,401.65 1,401.65 1,964,628.23 232.54%
Apr-17 1,549.95 1,157.18 -392.77 392.77 154,265.87 25.34%
May-17 4,219.31 1,457.04 -2,762.27 2,762.27 7,630,135.93 65.47%
Jun-17 861.08 790.23 -70.86 70.86 5,020.62 8.23%
Jul-17 3,917.93 1,328.00 -2,589.92 2,589.92 6,707,710.63 66.10%
Aug-17 861.08 926.27 65.19 65.19 4,249.29 7.57%
Sep-17 1,549.95 851.76 -698.19 698.19 487,472.04 45.05%
Oct-17 2,367.98 1,133.05 -1,234.93 1,234.93 1,525,048.22 52.15%
Nov-17 1,248.57 1,074.28 -174.29 174.29 30,378.66 13.96%
Dec-17 1,377.73 1,089.04 -288.70 288.70 83,344.82 20.95%
Jan-18 1,170.34 1,055.38 -114.97 114.97 13,217.45 9.82%
Feb-18 1,547.87 1,167.61 -380.27 380.27 144,603.30 24.57%
Mar-18 566.30 953.77 387.47 387.47 150,136.47 68.42%
Apr-18 2,567.21 1,434.80 -1,132.41 1,132.41 1,282,353.53 44.11%
May-18 3,775.30 2,302.38 -1,472.92 1,472.92 2,169,492.13 39.01%
Jun-18 2,680.47 2,712.45 31.98 31.98 1,022.84 1.19%
Jul-18 3,511.03 3,297.51 -213.52 213.52 45,590.48 6.08%
Aug-18 3,699.80 3,818.70 118.91 118.91 14,138.61 3.21%
Sep-18 1,321.36 3,396.47 2,075.11 2,075.11 4,306,087.61 157.04%
Oct-18 2,416.19 3,267.73 851.53 851.53 725,107.80 35.24%
Nov-18 1,132.59 2,663.45 1,530.85 1,530.85 2,343,516.41 135.16%
Dec-18 1,774.39 2,292.89 518.50 518.50 268,843.14 29.22%
574.86 2,326.19 12,941,524.76 162.02%

ME 574.86
MAD 2,326.19
MSE 12,941,524.76
MAPE 162.02%
 α 0.25
SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
Demanda
Mes Ft Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
ton

Jan-16 1,285.28 1,285.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

Feb-16 2,683.97 1,285.28 -1,398.69 1,398.69 1,956,336.58 52.11%
Mar-16 831.65 1,634.96 803.30 803.30 645,294.55 96.59%
Apr-16 2,041.33 1,434.13 -607.20 607.20 368,694.29 29.75%
May-16 1,058.47 1,585.93 527.46 527.46 278,216.64 49.83%
Jun-16 567.04 1,454.07 887.03 887.03 786,820.13 156.43%
Jul-16 3,175.41 1,232.31 -1,943.10 1,943.10 3,775,630.35 61.19%
Aug-16 1,512.10 1,718.08 205.98 205.98 42,429.67 13.62%
Sep-16 1,323.09 1,666.59 343.50 343.50 117,992.79 25.96%
Oct-16 3,137.60 1,580.71 -1,556.89 1,556.89 2,423,914.25 49.62%
Nov-16 1,738.91 1,969.93 231.02 231.02 53,371.00 13.29%
Dec-16 2,910.79 1,912.18 -998.61 998.61 997,221.98 34.31%
Jan-17 3,056.85 2,161.83 -895.01 895.01 801,049.44 29.28%
Feb-17 2,712.41 2,385.59 -326.83 326.83 106,815.85 12.05%
Mar-17 602.76 2,467.29 1,864.53 1,864.53 3,476,486.20 309.33%
Apr-17 1,549.95 2,001.16 451.21 451.21 203,589.34 29.11%
May-17 4,219.31 1,888.36 -2,330.95 2,330.95 5,433,335.05 55.24%
Jun-17 861.08 2,471.09 1,610.01 1,610.01 2,592,135.58 186.98%
Jul-17 3,917.93 2,068.59 -1,849.34 1,849.34 3,420,048.35 47.20%
Aug-17 861.08 2,530.93 1,669.84 1,669.84 2,788,374.33 193.92%
Sep-17 1,549.95 2,113.47 563.52 563.52 317,549.55 36.36%
Oct-17 2,367.98 1,972.59 -395.39 395.39 156,335.29 16.70%
Nov-17 1,248.57 2,071.43 822.86 822.86 677,104.83 65.90%
Dec-17 1,377.73 1,865.72 487.99 487.99 238,129.71 35.42%
Jan-18 1,170.34 1,743.72 573.38 573.38 328,762.66 48.99%
Feb-18 1,547.87 1,600.38 52.50 52.50 2,756.61 3.39%
Mar-18 566.30 1,587.25 1,020.96 1,020.96 1,042,351.87 180.29%
Apr-18 2,567.21 1,332.01 -1,235.19 1,235.19 1,525,702.60 48.11%
May-18 3,775.30 1,640.81 -2,134.49 2,134.49 4,556,056.00 56.54%
Jun-18 2,680.47 2,174.43 -506.03 506.03 256,067.48 18.88%
Jul-18 3,511.03 2,300.94 -1,210.09 1,210.09 1,464,317.80 34.47%
Aug-18 3,699.80 2,603.46 -1,096.33 1,096.33 1,201,945.27 29.63%
 Sep-18 1,321.36 2,877.55 1,556.19 1,556.19 2,421,731.75 117.77%
Oct-18 2,416.19 2,488.50 72.31 72.31 5,228.11 2.99%
Nov-18 1,132.59 2,470.42 1,337.83 1,337.83 1,789,795.25 118.12%
Dec-18 1,774.39 2,135.97 361.57 361.57 130,734.82 20.38%
Jan-19 2,135.97 2,045.57 -84.48 942.42 1,288,397.94 63.33%
Feb-19 2,045.57 2,068.17
Mar-19 2,068.17 2,062.52
Apr-19 2,062.52 2,063.93
May-19 2,063.93 2,063.58
Jun-19 2,063.58 2,063.67
Jul-19 2,063.67 2,063.65
Aug-19 2,063.65 2,063.65
Sep-19 2,063.65 2,063.65
Oct-19 2,063.65 2,063.65
Nov-19 2,063.65 2,063.65
Dec-19 2,063.65

ME -84.48
MAD 942.42
MSE 1,288,397.94
MAPE 63.33%
 N 3
PROMEDIO MOVIL
Demanda Promedio
Mes Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
Ton movil
Jan-16 1,285.28
Feb-16 2,683.97
Mar-16 831.65
Apr-16 2,041.33 1,600.30 -441.03 441.03 194,506.32 21.60%
May-16 1,058.47 1,852.32 793.85 793.85 630,200.46 75.00%
Jun-16 567.04 1,310.49 743.45 743.45 552,715.50 131.11%
Jul-16 3,175.41 1,222.28 -1,953.13 1,953.13 3,814,705.49 61.51%
Aug-16 1,512.10 1,600.30 88.21 88.21 7,780.25 5.83%
Sep-16 1,323.09 1,751.51 428.43 428.43 183,550.45 32.38%
Oct-16 3,137.60 2,003.53 -1,134.07 1,134.07 1,286,123.39 36.14%
Nov-16 1,738.91 1,990.93 252.02 252.02 63,512.27 14.49%
Dec-16 2,910.79 2,066.53 -844.25 844.25 712,766.41 29.00%
Jan-17 3,056.85 2,595.77 -461.08 461.08 212,591.66 15.08%
Feb-17 2,712.41 2,568.85 -143.56 143.56 20,610.30 5.29%
Mar-17 602.76 2,893.35 2,290.59 2,290.59 5,246,806.23 380.02%
Apr-17 1,549.95 2,124.01 574.06 574.06 329,539.72 37.04%
May-17 4,219.31 1,621.71 -2,597.60 2,597.60 6,747,531.77 61.56%
Jun-17 861.08 2,124.01 1,262.92 1,262.92 1,594,972.26 146.67%
Jul-17 3,917.93 2,210.11 -1,707.82 1,707.82 2,916,632.50 43.59%
Aug-17 861.08 2,999.44 2,138.36 2,138.36 4,572,569.61 248.33%
Sep-17 1,549.95 1,880.03 330.08 330.08 108,954.07 21.30%
Oct-17 2,367.98 2,109.65 -258.32 258.32 66,731.79 10.91%
Nov-17 1,248.57 1,593.00 344.43 344.43 118,634.30 27.59%
Dec-17 1,377.73 1,722.17 344.43 344.43 118,634.30 25.00%
Jan-18 1,170.34 1,664.76 494.42 494.42 244,448.19 42.25%
Feb-18 1,547.87 1,265.55 -282.32 282.32 79,707.38 18.24%
Mar-18 566.30 1,365.32 799.02 799.02 638,435.64 141.10%
Apr-18 2,567.21 1,094.84 -1,472.37 1,472.37 2,167,868.06 57.35%
May-18 3,775.30 1,560.46 -2,214.84 2,214.84 4,905,535.91 58.67%
Jun-18 2,680.47 2,302.93 -377.53 377.53 142,529.13 14.08%
Jul-18 3,511.03 3,007.66 -503.37 503.37 253,385.12 14.34%
Aug-18 3,699.80 3,322.27 -377.53 377.53 142,529.13 10.20%
Sep-18 1,321.36 3,297.10 1,975.74 1,975.74 3,903,556.13 149.52%
Oct-18 2,416.19 2,844.06 427.87 427.87 183,070.75 17.71%
Nov-18 1,132.59 2,479.12 1,346.52 1,346.52 1,813,128.90 118.89%
Dec-18 1,774.39 1,623.38 -151.01 151.01 22,804.66 8.51%
Jan-19 1,774.39 1,774.39 -8.65 895.58 1,333,244.49 63.04%
Feb-19 1,560.46 1,560.46
Mar-19 1,703.08 1,703.08
Apr-19 1,679.31 1,679.31
May-19 1,647.62 1,647.62
Jun-19 1,676.67 1,676.67
Jul-19 1,667.87 1,667.87 ME -8.65
Aug-19 1,664.05 1,664.05 MAD 895.58
Sep-19 1,669.53 1,669.53 MSE 1,333,244.49
Oct-19 1,667.15 1,667.15 MAPE 63.04%
Nov-19 1,666.91 1,666.91
Dec-19 1,667.86
 W1 0.1
W2 0.4
W3 0.5
N 3
PROMEDIO PONDERADO
Demanda Promedio
Mes Et |Et| Et^2 %Et
Ton ponderado
Jan-16 1,285.28
Feb-16 2,683.97
Mar-16 831.65
Apr-16 2,041.33 1,617.95 -423.39 423.39 179,257.02 20.74%
May-16 1,058.47 1,621.73 563.26 563.26 317,258.06 53.21%
Jun-16 567.04 1,428.93 861.90 861.90 742,864.87 152.00%
Jul-16 3,175.41 911.04 -2,264.37 2,264.37 5,127,359.54 71.31%
Aug-16 1,512.10 1,920.36 408.27 408.27 166,681.59 27.00%
Sep-16 1,323.09 2,082.92 759.83 759.83 577,340.79 57.43%
Oct-16 3,137.60 1,583.92 -1,553.68 1,553.68 2,413,924.99 49.52%
Nov-16 1,738.91 2,249.25 510.33 510.33 260,439.99 29.35%
Dec-16 2,910.79 2,256.81 -653.98 653.98 427,693.19 22.47%
Jan-17 3,056.85 2,464.72 -592.13 592.13 350,612.21 19.37%
Feb-17 2,712.41 2,866.63 154.22 154.22 23,783.07 5.69%
Mar-17 602.76 2,870.02 2,267.27 2,267.27 5,140,490.66 376.15%
Apr-17 1,549.95 1,692.03 142.08 142.08 20,186.37 9.17%
May-17 4,219.31 1,287.32 -2,931.99 2,931.99 8,596,556.50 69.49%
Jun-17 861.08 2,789.91 1,928.83 1,928.83 3,720,371.65 224.00%
Jul-17 3,917.93 2,273.26 -1,644.67 1,644.67 2,704,936.19 41.98%
Aug-17 861.08 2,725.33 1,864.25 1,864.25 3,475,410.35 216.50%
Sep-17 1,549.95 2,083.82 533.87 533.87 285,018.91 34.44%
Oct-17 2,367.98 1,511.20 -856.78 856.78 734,068.27 36.18%
Nov-17 1,248.57 1,890.08 641.51 641.51 411,531.26 51.38%
Dec-17 1,377.73 1,726.47 348.74 348.74 121,618.69 25.31%
Jan-18 1,170.34 1,425.09 254.75 254.75 64,896.98 21.77%
Feb-18 1,547.87 1,261.12 -286.75 286.75 82,226.66 18.53%
Mar-18 566.30 1,379.85 813.55 813.55 661,867.77 143.66%
Apr-18 2,567.21 1,019.33 -1,547.87 1,547.87 2,395,914.67 60.29%
May-18 3,775.30 1,664.91 -2,110.39 2,110.39 4,453,764.50 55.90%
Jun-18 2,680.47 2,971.16 290.70 290.70 84,505.52 10.85%
Jul-18 3,511.03 3,107.07 -403.96 403.96 163,181.60 11.51%
Aug-18 3,699.80 3,205.23 -494.56 494.56 244,594.24 13.37%
Sep-18 1,321.36 3,522.36 2,201.00 2,201.00 4,844,408.34 166.57%
Oct-18 2,416.19 2,491.70 75.51 75.51 5,701.17 3.13%
Nov-18 1,132.59 2,106.62 974.03 974.03 948,730.90 86.00%
Dec-18 1,774.39 1,664.91 -109.48 109.48 11,986.70 6.17%
Jan-19 1,664.91 1,581.85 -8.49 953.57 1,507,854.04 66.38%
Feb-19 1,581.85 1,655.47
Mar-19 1,655.47 1,634.33
Apr-19 1,634.33 1,626.97
May-19 1,626.97 1,637.54
Jun-19 1,637.54 1,632.76
Jul-19 1,632.76 1,632.99 ME -8.49
Aug-19 1,632.99 1,634.09 MAD 953.57
Sep-19 1,634.09 1,633.35 MSE 1,507,854.04
Oct-19 1,633.35 1,633.52 MAPE 66.38%
Nov-19 1,633.52 1,633.61
Dec-19 1,633.51