2.

a)

A1=sube el PNB

1
 A1=constante el PNB

A1=baja el PNB

B=acciones aumentan

P ( A 1 )=0.4

P ( A 2 )=0.3

P ( A 3 )=0.3

P ( AB )=0.8
1

P ( AB )=0.2
2

B
P ( ) =0.1
A 3

P ( B )=P ( A1 ) P ( AB )+ P ( A ) P ( AB )+ P ( A ) P ( AB )
1
2
2
3
3

P ( B )=( 0.4 )( 0.8 ) + P ( 0.3 ) ( 0.2 ) + P ( 0.3 )( 0.1 )

P(B)= 0.41
b)
A1=sube el PNB

B́=acciones disminuyen

B́ B
P ( )
A1
=1−P
A1 ( )
=1−0.8=0.2

3.
A1=graduados primaria

A2=graduados secundaria

A3 =graduados universidad

B=desempleo

a)
 P ( A 1 )=0.4

P ( A 2 )=0.5

P ( A 3 )=0.1

P ( AD )=0.1
1

P ( AD )=0.05
2

D
P ( ) =0.0 2
A 3

(0.5)(0.05)
( 0.4 ) ( 0.1 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.05 ) +(0.1)(0.02)

0.025
0.067

0.3731

(0.4)(0.9)
b)
( 0.4 ) ( 0.9 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.95 ) +(0.1)( 0.98)

0.36
0.933

1.3859

4.

A1=graduados primaria

A2=graduados secundaria

A3 =graduados universidad
 B=desempleo

a)
P ( A 1 )=0.4

P ( A 2 )=0.5

P ( A 3 )=0.1

P ( AD )=0.1
1

D
P ( )A2
=0.05

D
P ( ) =0.02
A 3

(0.5)(0.05)
( 0.4 ) ( 0.1 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.05 ) +(0.1)(0.02)

0.025
0.067

0.3731

(0.4)(0.9)
b)
( 0.4 ) ( 0.9 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.95 ) +(0.1)( 0.98)

0.36
0.933

1.3859

5.
 1
P ( A )=
2
3
P ( A ∪ B)=
4
5
P ( B́ )=
8

5 3
P ( B́ )=1−¿ P ( B )=1− =
8 8
a) P ( A ∪ B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )−P ( A ∩B )
3 1 3
= +¿ −P ( A ∩ B )
4 2 8
1
P ( A ∩ B )=
8

b) P ( Á ∩ B́ )=1−P ( A ∪ B )

3 1
1− =
4 4

c) P ( Á ∪ B́ ) =1−P ( A ∩B )

1 7
1− =
8 8

d) P ( Á ∩B )=P ( B )−P ( A ∩ B )
3 1 1
− =
8 8 4

7.
A=el hombre vive dentro de 25 años
B=esposa vive dentro de 25 años
C=ambos vivan dentro de 25 años

3
P ( A )=
5
 2
P ( B )=
3

a) Ambos vivan
P ( C ) =P ( A ∩ B )= ( 35 )( 23 )= 25
b) Viva solamente el hombre
3 1 1
P ( D )=P ( A ∩ B́ )= ( )( )
=
5 3 5
c) Viva solamente la mujer
2 2 4
P ( E )=P ( Á ∩ B )= ( )( )
=
5 3 15
d) Viva una al menos

( 35 )+( 32 )−( 25 )= 1315

P ( F )=P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )−P ( A ∩ B ) =

8.

a) La probabilidad de extraer al azar una bola roja, será

 

 
b) la probabilidad de extraer una bola blanca:
 

c) la probabilidad de extraer una bola azul:

 

La probabilidad de extraer una bola que no sea roja, dado que se trata de
sucesos excluyentes (cada bola es de un solo color) será la suma de las
probabilidades de extraer una bola blanca y de extraer una bola azul:
 

 
Tambien se puede calcular:
 

 
De la misma manera, la probabilidad de extraer una bola que sea roja o blanca:
 
P(roja o blanca) = P(roja)+P(blanca) = 0,4 + 0,2667 = 0,6667

9.

20 80
P (C)= P (C ')=
100 100

120
a) P ( C , C , C ) = =1.2
100

10.

1
P ( A ∩ B )=
3

1
P ( Á ∩ B́ )=
6

1
P ( A ∩ B )=P ( A ) . P ( B )=
3

1 5
P ( Á ∩ B́ )=1−P ( A ∪ B )=1− =P ( A ∪ B )=
6 6

P ( A ∪ B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )−P ( A ∩B )

5 1
=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −
6 3

7
P ( A )+ P (B)=
6

1
P ( A ) . P ( B )=
3

2 1
P ( A )= P ( B )=
3 2
 1
11. P ( A )=P ( B )=
2
P ( DA )=0.25 P ( DB )=0.05
D
B
P ( )=
( B)
P . P (B )

D D D
P( ) . P ( A)+ P( ). P( B)
A B

(0. 05)( 0.5)

( 0.25 )( 0. 5 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.05 ) +( 0. 05)(0.5)

P ( DB )= 16

12.

P ( A )=0.4
P ( B )=0.3
P ( C ) =0.2
P ( D )=0.1

P ( DA )= 0.05
D
P ( )= 0.04
B

D
P ( )= 0.02
C

P ( DD )=0.01
 a) P ( D )=P ( DA ) . P ( A ) + P ( DB ) . P ( B ) + P ( DC ) . P ( C )+ P ( DD ). P ( D )
( 0. 05 ) ( 0. 4 )+ ( 0.04 ) ( 0.3 ) + ( 0. 02 ) ( 0. 2 )+ ( 0.01 )( 0.1 )=0.037

b)

D
B
P ( )=
( B)
P
. P ( B)

D D D D D
P ( ) . P ( A ) + P ( ) . P ( B ) + P ( ) . P ( C )+ P ( ) . P ( D )
A B C D

(0. 04)(0. 3)
( 0. 05 )( 0. 4 ) + ( 0. 04 )( 0. 3 ) + ( 0. 02 )( 0. 2 ) + ( 0.01 ) (0.1)

P ( DB )=0.3243
13.

P ( A )=0.4
P ( B )=0.4
P ( C ) =0.15
P ( D )=0.05

P ( VA )= 0.1
V
P ( )= 0.08
B

V
P ( )= 0.04
C

P ( VD )=0.01
a)
P ( VA ) . P ( A )+ P ( VB ). P ( B ) + P ( VC ) . P ( C ) + P ( VD ) . P ( D )
( 0. 1 )( 0. 4 ) + ( 0. 08 ) ( 0. 4 )+ ( 0.04 )( 0.15 ) + ( 0.01 ) ( 0.05 )=0.0785

b)
C
P ( )=
( C)
P
' . P (C )

V V V V V
P ( ) ' . P ( A )+ P ( ) ' . P ( B ) + P ( ) ' . P (C ) + P ( ) ' . P ( D )
A B C D

(0.96)( 0.15)
=0.1563
( 0. 9 )( 0. 4 ) + ( 0. 92 ) ( 0. 4 ) + ( 0. 96 )( 0. 15 ) + ( 0.99 ) (0.05)

14.

P ( K )=0.5
P ( L )=0.3
P ( M )=0.2

P ( CK )= 0.7
C
P ( )= 0.8
L

C
P ( )= 0.9
M

C
K
P ( )=
( K)
P
. P(K)

C C C C
P ( ) . P ( K ) + P ( ) . P ( L ) + P ( ). P ( M )
K L M

( 0. 7 ) ( 0.5 )
=0.4545
( 0.7 )( 0. 5 ) + ( 0. 8 ) ( 0. 3 )+ ( 0. 9 )( 0.2 )
 15.

P ( A )=0.5 P ( B )=0.25 P ( EA )=0.6 P ( EB )=0.84

E
A
P ( )=
( A)
P
. P(A)

E E E
P ( ). P ( A ) + P ( ) . P ( B )
A B

(0. 0)(0. 6)
=0.588
( 0.5 )( 0. 6 ) + ( 0. 2 5 )( 0. 84 )

16.

17.

P ( A )=0. 125
P ( B )=0. 25
P ( C ) =0.5

P ( DA )= 0.01
D
P ( )= 0.015
B

D
P ( )= 0.02
C

a)

P ( DA ) . P ( A ) + P ( DB ) . P ( B ) + P ( DC ) . P ( C )
( 0. 125 )( 0. 01 ) + ( 0. 25 ) ( 0.015 )+ ( 0.5 ) ( 0. 02 )=0.0 15

b)
D
C
P ( )=
( C)
P
. P (C)

D D D D
P( ) . P ( A)+ P( ). P( B)+ P( ). P (C )
A B C

( 0. 5 ) ( 0.02 )
=0.667
( 0.125 )( 0. 01 ) + ( 0. 25 )( 0.015 )+ ( 0.5 ) ( 0. 02 )
18.

p(a) = 1/2
p(b) = 1/3
p(a∩b) =1/4

 p(a/b) = p(a∩b) / p(b)

p(b/a) = p(a∩b) / p(a)
p(aUb) = p(a) + p(b) - p(a∩b)

P ( B́Á ) = P ¿´¿ ¿
P ( B́ ∩ Á )= p ( a ) +¿p(b) - p(a∩b)

p(a/b) = (1/4) / (1/3) = 0.75

p(b/a) = (1/4)/(1/2) = 0.5
p(aUb) = 0.5+0.333-0.25 = 0.5833

P ( B́Á )= 58 =0.625
P ( B́ ∩ Á )=0.5+ 0.667−0.75=0.417
19.

P ( A )=0.25
P ( B )=0. 375
P ( C ) =0.375

( DA )= 0.05
P

D
P ( )= 0.03
B

D
P ( )= 0.02
C

D
B
P ( )=
( B)
P
. P ( B)

D D D D
P( ) . P ( A)+ P( ). P( B)+ P( ). P (C )
A B C

( 0. 03 ) ( 0.375 )
=0. 36
( 0. 05 )( 0. 25 ) + ( 0. 03 ) ( 0. 375 )+ ( 0. 02 )( 0. 375 )

20.

P ( A )=0.5
P ( B )=0.3
P ( C ) =0.2

P ( DA )= 0.001
 P ( DB )= 0.002
D
P ( )= 0.008
C

D
C
P ( )=
( C)
P. P (C)

D D D D
P( ) . P ( A)+ P( ). P( B)+ P( ). P (C )
A B C

( 0. 2 )( 0. 008 )
=0. 4324
( 0. 001 )( 0. 5 ) + ( 0. 3 )( 0.002 ) + ( 0. 2 ) ( 0.008 )