Binomial distribution

2 n
0.1666 p

cumulative
X P(X) probability
0 0.69456 0.69456
1 0.27769 0.97224
2 0.02776 1.00000
1.00000

0.333 expected value

0.278 variance
0.527 standard deviation

Binomial distribution (n = 2, p = 0.1666)

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50
P(X)

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
0 1 2
X
Binomial distribution

20 n
0.1666 p

cumulative
X P(X) probability
0 0.02613 0.02613
1 0.10445 0.13058
2 0.19837 0.32894
3 0.23792 0.56687
4 0.20214 0.76901
5 0.12931 0.89831
6 0.06462 0.96294
 7 0.02584 0.98877
8 0.00839 0.99717
9 0.00224 0.99940
10 0.00049 0.99990
11 0.00009 0.99998
12 0.00001 1.00000
13 0.00000 1.00000
14 0.00000 1.00000
15 0.00000 1.00000
16 0.00000 1.00000
17 0.00000 1.00000
18 0.00000 1.00000
19 0.00000 1.00000
20 0.00000 1.00000
1.00000

3.332 expected value

2.777 variance
1.666 standard deviation

Binomial distribution (n = 20, p = 0.1666)

0.25

0.20

0.15
P(X)

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X
 Concepto Frecuencia
1 azules 10 P(Azul)=
2 amarillos 10 P(Azul y azul)=
3 rojos 10 P(Azul o cafe)=
4 verdes 10
5 naranjas 10
6 café 10
60

P(REY Y FICHA ROJA)=

0.538461538461538

Siguiente dia
P(propina>=50)= 0.4
P(en uno de los siguientes dos dias >=50
Son sinonimos P(dia uno >=50 o dia dos >=50)= 0.8
P(DIA 1 SI Y DIA DOS NO) O P(DIA UNO NO Y DIA DOS SI)

Teorema de Bayes
DEFECTUOSOS NO DEFECTUOSO
A1 HE 30% 3% 97%
A2 SS 20% 5% 95%
A3 CC 50% 4% 96%
B1 B2

3.10%

CONDICIONALES A
MARGINALES
PRIORI

DEFECTUOSO 0.03
HE 0.3
NO DEFECTUOS 0.97

DEFECTUOSO 0.05
SS 0.2
NO DEFECTUOS 0.95
 DEFECTUOSO 0.04
CC 0.5
NO DEFECTUOS 0.96

Primer paso(DENOMINADOR)

Aprobar 0.9
Tareas 0.8
Reprobar 0.1

Aprobar 0.6
No tareas 0.2
Reprobar 0.4
 0.166666666666667
0.025423728813559
0.333333333333333

Primer paso(DENOMINADOR)
P=(Defectuoso)= 0.039
1
P=(No Defectuoso)= 0.961

CONDICIONALES A CONJUNTAS
POSTERIORI "y"

0.2307692307692 0.009

0.3028095733611 0.291

0.2564102564103 0.01

0.1977107180021 0.19
 0.5128205128205 0.02

0.4994797086368 0.48
1

Primer paso(DENOMINADOR)
P=(Aprobar)= 0.84 1
P=(Reprobar)= 0.16

0.8571428571429 0.72

0.5 0.08

0.1428571428571 0.12

0.5 0.08