Años Trimestres Ventas Pronosticos Error Pronosticos Error

1 2692
2 2871 2692.00 -179.00
1990
3 2900 2871.00 -29.00
4 2811 2915.75 104.75
1 2497 3005.25 508.25
2 2792 3139.50 347.50 3318.50 526.50
1991
3 2838 3318.50 480.50 3347.50 509.50
4 2780 3542.25 762.25 3437.50 657.50
1 2778 3810.75 1032.75 3302.50 524.50
2 3066 4124.00 1058.00 4039.75 973.75
1992
3 3213 4482.00 1269.00 4256.25 1043.25
4 2928 4884.75 1956.75 4451.25 1523.25
1 2874 5332.25 2458.25 4561.75 1687.75
2 3000 5824.50 2824.50 5415.67 2415.67
1993
3 2913 6361.50 3448.50 5788.00 2875.00
4 2916 6943.25 4027.25 6002.00 3086.00
Error Medio Absoluto 1365.75 1438.42
n 3
α 0.5

Años Trimestres Ventas Promedio Doble Ajuste Pronostico

1 2692 2692 2692 2692
2 2871 2781.5 2736.75 2871 2692.00
1990
3 2900 2871.00
1 4 2811 2915.75
2 1 2497 3005.25
3 2 2792 3139.50
1991
4 3 2838 3318.50
5 4 2780 3542.25
6 1 2778 3810.75
7 2 3066 4124.00
1992
8 3 3213 4482.00
9 4 2928 4884.75
10 1 2874 5332.25
11 2 3000 5824.50
1993
12 3 2913 6361.50
13 4 2916 6943.25
IE

-179.00
-29.00
104.75
508.25
84.25
225.75
433.50
770.50
408.83
573.50
941.25

Tendencia 44.75

-179.00 179
-29.00 29
104.75 104.75
508.25 508.25
347.50 347.5
480.50 480.5
762.25 762.25
1032.75 1032.75
1058.00 1058
1269.00 1269
1956.75 1956.75
2458.25 2458.25
2824.50 2824.5
3448.50 3448.5
4027.25 4027.25
1365.75 1438.42
43177 32098
Error 3.16% 4.48%
 Años Trimestres Ventas T SCI
1 1 2692 2761.57 0.97
2 2 2871 2775.60 1.03
1990
3 3 2900 2789.64 1.04
4 4 2811 2803.67 1.00
5 1 2497 2817.70 0.89
6 2 2792 2831.73 0.99
1991
7 3 2838 2845.76 1.00
8 4 2780 2859.80 0.97
9 1 2778 2873.83 0.97
10 2 3066 2887.86 1.06
1992
11 3 3213 2901.89 1.11
12 4 2928 2915.93 1.00
13 1 2874 2929.96 0.98
14 2 3000 2943.99 1.02
1993
15 3 2913 2958.02 0.98
16 4 2916 2972.05 0.98

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.48062366
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.2309991
R^2 ajustado 0.17607047
Error típico 78.2170501
Observaciones 16

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 25728.4932 25728.4932 4.20544044 0.05950097
Residuos 14 85650.697 6117.90693
Total 15 111379.19

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 2749.87812 41.0173671 67.0418 5.8388E-19 2661.90462
Variable X 1 8.69896768 4.24191512 2.05071705 0.05950097 -0.3990354

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico para YResiduos

1 2758.57709 88.931166
2 2767.27606 39.6533271
 3 2775.97503 27.0446142
4 2784.67399 34.2538385
5 2793.37296 -158.0444
6 2802.07193 -91.254419
7 2810.7709 -87.874686
8 2819.46986 -47.065382
9 2828.16883 -10.049537
10 2836.8678 61.1365286
11 2845.56677 161.638118
12 2854.26573 18.4334444
13 2862.9647 3.84779811
14 2871.66367 -4.8511696
15 2880.36264 -13.550137
16 2889.0616 -22.249105
 S TCI CI C I C(30%) I(70%)
0.95 2847.51 1.03 - - - -
1.02 2806.93 1.01 1.02 1.00 0.72 0.70
1.03 2803.02 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.71 0.70
1.00 2818.93 1.01 0.98 1.02 0.68 0.72
0.95 2641.24 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.67 0.68
1.02 2729.69 0.96 0.96 1.01 0.66 0.71
1.03 2743.09 0.96 0.97 1.00 0.67 0.70
1.00 2787.84 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.69 0.69
0.95 2938.48 1.02 1.01 1.01 0.71 0.71
1.02 2997.58 1.04 1.04 0.99 0.74 0.70
1.03 3105.55 1.07 1.04 1.03 0.74 0.72
1.00 2936.26 1.01 1.04 0.97 0.74 0.68
0.95 3040.02 1.04 1.01 1.02 0.71 0.72
1.02 2933.05 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.70
1.03 2815.58 0.95 0.98 0.97 0.68 0.68
1.00 2924.22 0.98 - - - -

12200.00
12000.00
11800.00
f(x) = 238.5482970
11600.00 f(x)
R² ==0.4201848075
11094.18692
R² = 0.3484217592
11400.00
or crítico de F 11200.00
11000.00
10800.00
10600.00
10400.00
Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
10200.00
2837.85162 2661.90462 2837.85162 0.5 1 1.5 2
17.7969708 -0.3990354 17.7969708
 Años Ventas Pronostico SCE SCR SCT
1 1990 11276.39 11109.43 27874.83 128036.90 36429.41
2 1991 10901.87 11347.98 199010.85 14226.32 319655.08
3 1992 11977.86 11586.52 153146.98 14226.32 260726.79
4 1993 11712.88 11825.07 12586.87 128036.90 60334.70
392619.52 284526.45 677145.97
Promedio 11467.25

Años Ventas Pronostico SCE SCR SCT

1 1990 11276.39 11094.00 33264.33 139315.56 36429.41
2 1991 10901.87 11412.22 260458.95 3028.16 319655.08
3 1992 11977.86 11602.58 140835.42 18315.20 260726.79
4 1993 11712.88 11739.57 712.32 74158.47 60334.70
435271.02 234817.39 677145.97

Ventas
12200.00
12000.00
11800.00
f(x) = 238.5482970304x + 10870.8792574241
11600.00 f(x)
R² ==0.4201848075
11094.1869299989 x^0.0408141037
R² = 0.3484217592
11400.00
11200.00
11000.00
10800.00
10600.00
10400.00
10200.00
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
 Fvar S CUA GRADOS C MEDIO F F tabla
Regresion 284526.45 1 284526.45 1.45 38.5063291
Error 392619.52 2 196309.76
Total 677145.97 3

0.025

Fvar S CUA GRADOS C MEDIO F F tabla

Regresion 234817.39 1 234817.388 1.08 38.5063291
Error 435271.02 2 217635.51
Total 670088.41 3