n Mes At Ft Error Abs. Error % Abs. ∑ Error Abs. MAD Error Nor. ∑ Error Nor.

TS
1 Ene 200 223 23 11.50% 23 23.0 -23 -23 -1
2 Feb 230 229 1 0.43% 24 12.0 1 -22 -1.8
3 Mar 260 234 26 10.00% 50 16.7 26 4 0.2
4 Abr 180 240 60 33.33% 110 27.5 -60 -56 -2.0
5 May 270 246 24 8.89% 134 26.8 24 -32 -1.2
6 Jun 240 251 11 4.58% 145 24.2 -11 -43 -1.8
7 Jul 250 257 7 2.80% 152 21.7 -7 -50 -2.3
8 Ago 300 263 37 12.33% 189 23.6 37 -13 -0.6
9 Sep 320 268 52 16.25% 241 26.8 52 39 1.5
10 Oct 350 274 76 21.71% 317 31.7 76 115 3.6
11 Nov 240 280 40 16.67% 357 32.5 -40 75 2.3
12 Dic 210 286 76 36.19% 433 36.1 -76 -1 0

SUMA % 174.70% 45.50

n 12
MAPE 14.56%

http://www.gestiondeoperaciones.net/proyeccion-de-demanda/error-porcentual-absoluto-m
 400

350

300 40.0
f(x) = 5.6993006993x + 217.1212121212 35.0
250 R² = 0.170195911
30.0 27.5 26
200
25.0 23.0
150
20.0 16.7
100
15.0 12.0
50 10.0
0 5.0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
0.0
At Linear (At) Ft Ene Feb Mar Abr M

-porcentual-absoluto-medio-mape-en-un-pronostico-de-demanda/

TS
4

3 3.6

2 2.3
1 1.5
0
0.2 0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
-1 -0.6
-1 -1.2
-2
-1.8 -2 -1.8
-3 -2.3

-4
 MAD
40.0
36.1
35.0 31.7 32.5
30.0 27.5 26.8 26.8
23.0 24.2 23.6
25.0 21.7
20.0 16.7
15.0 12.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic

2.3

Nov 0
Dic
n Año At Ft Error Abs. ∑ Error Abs. MAD Error Nor. ∑ Error Nor. TS
1 2005 20 23 3
2 2006 30 24 6
3 2007 40 22 18
4 2008 50 25 25
5 2009 60 23 37
6 2010
7 2011
400

350

300
f(x) = 5.6993006993x + 217.1212121212
250 R² = 0.170195911
200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
At Linear (At) Ft