EJEMPLO 1

Promedio Móvil Simple

n=3
Pronóstico
Periodo(t) Dt Et (Ft+1 - Dt) Abs(Et) Et2 Abs(Et)/Dt Et/Dt
(F t+1)
1 58
2 54
3 60
4 55 57.3 -2.3 2.3 5.4 0.042 -0.042
5 62 56.3 5.7 5.7 32.1 0.091 0.091
6 62 59.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 0.048 0.048
7 65 59.7 5.3 5.3 28.4 0.082 0.082
8 63 63.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000
9 70 63.3 6.7 6.7 44.4 0.095 0.095
Suma 18.3 23.0 119.4 0.4 0.3

N = 6

DAM 3.83
EMC 19.91
PEMA 0.060
PME 0.046
SR 4.783

Promedio Móvil Ponderado

n=3
Pronóstico
Periodo(t) Dt Et Abs(Et) Et2 Abs(Et)/Dt Et/Dt
(F t+1)
1 58 0.2
2 54 0.3
3 60 0.5
4 55 57.8 -2.8 2.8 7.8 0.051 -0.051
5 62 56.3 5.7 5.7 32.5 0.092 0.092
6 62 59.5 2.5 2.5 6.3 0.040 0.040
7 65 60.6 4.4 4.4 19.4 0.068 0.068
8 63 63.5 -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.008 -0.008
9 70 63.4 6.6 6.6 43.6 0.094 0.094
Suma 15.9 22.5 109.8 0.4 0.2

N = 6

DAM 3.75
EMC 18.29
PEMA 0.059
PME 0.039
 SR 4.240

Suavización Exponencial
α= 0.3 Ft= 60
Pronóstico
Periodo(t) Dt Et Abs(Et) Et2 Abs(Et)/Dt Et/Dt
(F t+1)
1 58
2 54
3 60 60
4 55 60.0 -5.0 5.0 25.0 0.091 -0.091
5 62 58.5 3.5 3.5 12.3 0.056 0.056
6 62 59.6 2.5 2.5 6.0 0.040 0.040
7 65 60.3 4.7 4.7 22.2 0.073 0.073
8 63 61.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.021 0.021
9 70 62.1 7.9 7.9 62.6 0.113 0.113
Suma 14.9 24.9 129.7 0.4 0.2

N = 6

DAM 4.15
EMC 21.62
PEMA 0.066
PME 0.035
SR 3.588

ANÁLISIS
PMSIMPLE PMPOND. SUAV.EXPO Regresión
DAM 3.83 3.75 4.15 3.10
EMC 19.91 18.29 21.62 12.46
PEMA 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.05
PME 0.05 0.04 0.04 -0.04
SR 4.78 4.24 3.59 -4.46

Regresión
Pronóstico
Periodo(t) Dt Et Abs(Et) Et2 Abs(Et)/Dt Et/Dt
(F t+1)
1 58 57.89
2 54 54.80
3 60 57.84
4 55 58.31 -3.3 3.3 10.9 0.060 -0.060
5 62 59.62 2.4 2.4 5.7 0.038 0.038
6 62 63.58 -1.6 1.6 2.5 0.025 -0.025
7 65 66.62 -1.6 1.6 2.6 0.025 -0.025
8 63 66.10 -3.1 3.1 9.6 0.049 -0.049
9 70 76.60 -6.6 6.6 43.5 0.094 -0.094
 Suma -13.8 18.6 74.8 0.3 -0.2

N = 6

DAM 3.10
EMC 12.46
PEMA 0.049
PME -0.036
SR -4.462
80

70
f(x) = 0.0138888889x^6 - 0.4064102564x^5 + 4.6549145299x^4 - 26.4481351981x^3 + 77.7717560217x^2 - 109.3715617715x + 111.6666666666
R²
60= 0.8807421535

50

40 Column B
Polynomial (Column B)
30

20

10
50

40 Column B
Polynomial (Column B)
30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Aplicación 1
Elaborar los diferentes pronósticos de ventas de
Series de tiempo y regresión, su evaluación y
análisis para determinar cuál es el que más se
ajusta, con la siguiente información.
Periodo(t) Dt
1 253
2 263
3 285
4 304
5 274 n = 3
6 275 α = 0.2
7 264 Ft = 250
8 267
9 280
10 305
11 264
12 300

PROMEDIO SIMPLE
Periodo(t) Dt Pronóstico Et Abs (Et)
1 253
2 263
3 285
4 304 267.0 -37.0 37.0 DAM 167.0
5 274 284.0 10.0 10.0 9
6 275 287.7 12.7 12.7 DAM 18.6
7 264 284.3 20.3 20.3
8 267 271.0 4.0 4.0
9 280 268.7 -11.3 11.3
10 305 270.3 -34.7 34.7
11 264 284.0 20.0 20.0
12 300 283.0 -17.0 17.0
167.0

PROMEDIO SIMPLE PONDERADO

Periodo(t) Dt Pronóstico Et Abs (Et)
1 253 0.3 Chart Title
2 263 0.3 350
3 285 0.4 300
4 304 268.8 -35.2 35.2 DAM 167.4 f(x) = 0.0151143791x^6 - 0.5908748115x^5 + 8.8828557064x^4 -
f(x) = 1.7972027972x + 266.1515151515
R² = 0.7700604766
5 274 286.0 12.0 12.0 9 250 R² = 0.1387169243

200

150

100
 350

300
f(x) = 0.0151143791x^6 - 0.5908748115x^5 + 8.8828557064x^4 -
f(x) = 1.7972027972x + 266.1515151515
R² = 0.7700604766
250 R² = 0.1387169243

6 275 286.3 11.3 11.3 DAM 18.6 200

7 264 283.4 19.4 19.4
150
8 267 270.3 3.3 3.3
9 280 268.5 -11.5 11.5 100
10 305 271.3 -33.7 33.7
50
11 264 286.1 22.1 22.1
12 300 281.1 -18.9 18.9 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
13 281.1 290.7 167.4
14 290.7 281.6
15 290.6

PROMEDIO SIMPLE PONDERADO

Periodo(t) Dt Pronóstico Et Abs (Et)
1 253 α = 0.2
2 263 Ft = 250
3 285 250
4 304 257.0 -47.0 47.0 DAM 153.5
5 274 266.4 -7.6 7.6 9
6 275 267.9 -7.1 7.1 DAM 17.1
7 264 269.3 5.3 5.3
8 267 268.3 1.3 1.3
9 280 268.0 -12.0 12.0
10 305 270.4 -34.6 34.6
11 264 277.3 13.3 13.3
12 300 274.7 -25.3 25.3
153.5

ANÁLISIS
SIMPLE POND. S.EXPO
DAM 18.56 18.60 17.06
 Chart Title

43791x^6 - 0.5908748115x^5 + 8.8828557064x^4 - 64.0205848073x^3 + 223.6713429544x^2 - 333.3437028656x + 419.2727272727

7972027972x + 266.1515151515
4766
387169243
43791x^6 - 0.5908748115x^5 + 8.8828557064x^4 - 64.0205848073x^3 + 223.6713429544x^2 - 333.3437028656x + 419.2727272727
7972027972x + 266.1515151515
4766
387169243

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Propuesto 1
Elaborar los diferentes pronósticos de ventas de Series de tiempo y regresión, su evaluación y anális
es el que más se ajusta, con la siguiente información.

Periodo(t) Dt
1 1450
2 1530
3 1642
4 1584
5 1462 n = 3
6 1360 α = 0.10
7 1632 Ft = 1420
8 1450
9 1541
10 1496
11 1411
12 1523
sión, su evaluación y análisis para determinar cuál