Estación: Lircay

Departamento: Hvca
Provincia: Angaraes

CUADRO DE CALCULO DE PRESIPITACION MAXIMA Y PERIODOS DE RECURRENCIA POSIBLES

Mes Precipitación (mm)
No Año
Max. Precip. xi (xi - x)^2
1 2012 DIC 2.0 Err:522
2 2013 ENE 15.3 Err:522
3 2014 FEB 1.0 Err:522
4 2015 FEB 20.0 Err:522
5 2016 DIC 22.0 Err:522
6 2017 MAR 29.1 Err:522
7 2018 FEB 31.3 Err:522
8 2019 DIC 34.6 Err:522
9 2020 FEB 26.5 Err:522
10 2021 DIC 27.8 Err:522
11 2022 ENE 29.8 Err:522
12 2023 FEB 29.8 Err:522
13 2024 FEB 29.8 Err:522
14 2025 FEB 29.8 Err:522
15 2026 FEB 29.8 Err:522
16 2027 FEB 29.8 Err:522
17 2028 FEB 29.8 Err:522 Para el modelo de probabilidad:
18 2029 FEB 29.8 Err:522
19 2030 FEB 29.8 Err:522
20 2031 FEB 29.8 Err:522
21 2032 FEB 29.8 Err:522
22 2033 FEB 29.8 Err:522
23 2034 FEB 29.8 Err:522
24 2035 FEB 29.8 Err:522
25 2036 FEB 29.8 Err:522
SUMA 656.6 2453.9
 AÑO
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
MAX

AÑO
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
PARA EL CALCULO DE LAS PRESIPITACIONES RECURRENTES A 20 AÑOS 2018
2019

x
x i

2020
26.26 mm 2021
n
2022
MIN
n

x  x
2
i
i 1
S  10.11 mm
n 1

6
 *s  7.88 mm


u  x  0.5772 *   21.71 mm

 x u 
ara el modelo de probabilidad:   
e   
F x  e
  x u 
  
e   
F x  e

GRAFICA DE PRECIPITACION
12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
Col umn B Col umn C Col umn D Col umn E Col umn F Col umn G
Col umn H Col umn I Col umn J Col umn K Col umn L Col umn M
 MES P MAX
FEBRERO 104.1
DICIEMBRE 87.9
ENERO 73.5
ENERO 87.8
FEBRERO 64.8
FEBRERO 72.9
ENERO 64.2
FEBRERO 67.2
FEBRERO 69.3
FEBRERO 68.2
ENERO 68.8
104.1

MES P MIN
JULIO 2.7
JULIO 5.3
JUNIO 4.6
JUNIO 1.5
AGOSTO 4.2
JULIO 5.2
JUNIO 4.8
JUNIO 4.5
AGOSTO 4.2
JUNIO 5.1
JUNIO 4.9
1.5
CION

Col umn F Col umn G

Col umn L Col umn M
 DATOS DE : PRECIPITACIÓN TOTAL (mm)

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL

2012 36.7 104.1 57.5 66.8 21.3 8.5 2.7
2013 73.7 64.2 64.0 12.2 16.6 6.2 5.3
2014 73.5 57.0 48.2 31.1 25.0 4.6 8.8
2015 87.8 74.7 67.4 33.0 13.5 1.5 2.2
2016 26.4 64.8 23.7 41.1 4.4 6.3 7.3
2017 59.6 72.9 52.1 36.8 16.2 5.4 5.2
2018 64.2 66.7 51.1 30.8 15.1 4.8 5.7
2019 62.3 67.2 48.5 34.6 14.8 4.5 5.8
2020 60.1 69.3 12.9 35.3 12.8 4.5 5.2
2021 54.5 68.2 37.6 35.7 12.6 5.1 5.9
2022 60.1 68.8 40.4 34.6 14.3 4.9 5.6
2023 60.2 68.0 38.1 34.2 13.9 4.8 5.6
2024 59.4 68.3 35.5 34.9 13.7 4.7 5.6
2025 58.9 68.5 32.9 34.9 13.5 4.8 5.6
2026 58.6 68.4 36.9 34.9 13.6 4.9 5.7
2027 59.5 68.4 36.8 34.7 13.8 4.8 5.6
SUMA 955.5 1119.3 683.5 565.5 235.1 80.2 87.7
MEDIA 477.8 559.7 341.7 282.7 117.6 40.1 43.9

AÑO MES P MAX AÑO MES

2017 FEBRERO 72.9 72.9 2017 JULIO
2018 ENERO 64.2 68.8 2018 JUNIO
2019 FEBRERO 67.2 68.5 2019 JUNIO
2020 FEBRERO 69.3 68.4 2020 AGOSTO
2021 FEBRERO 68.2 68.3 2021 JUNIO
2022 ENERO 68.8 2022 JUNIO
2023 FEBRERO 68.0 2023 JUNIO
2024 FEBRERO 68.3 2024 JUNIO
2025 FEBRERO 68.5 2025 JUNIO
2026 FEBRERO 68.4 2026 JUNIO
2027 FEBRERO 68.4 2027 JUNIO
MAX 72.9 MIN

72.9
69.3
68.8
68.5
68.4
68.4
68.3
68.2
68
67.2
ACIÓN TOTAL (mm)

AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ANUAL

0.9 22.9 23.0 23.8 98.9 466.9
12.5 7.2 23.1 14.5 87.9 387.1
9.3 31.1 45.8 9.9 51.9 395.8
11.9 3.1 3.2 16.0 5.1 319.2
4.2 4.2 22.1 9.5 30.1 243.9
7.8 13.7 23.4 14.7 54.7 362.6
9.1 11.8 23.5 12.9 45.9 341.7
8.5 12.8 23.6 12.6 37.5 332.6
4.2 9.1 19.2 13.1 34.7 280.3
6.7 10.3 22.3 12.6 40.6 312.2
7.3 11.5 22.4 13.2 42.7 325.9
7.2 11.1 22.2 12.9 40.3 318.5
6.8 11.0 21.9 12.9 39.2 313.9
6.4 10.6 21.6 12.9 39.5 310.2
6.9 10.9 22.1 12.9 40.4 316.1
6.9 11.0 22.0 13.0 40.4 316.9
116.4 192.3 361.4 217.3 729.6 5343.8
58.2 96.2 180.7 108.6 364.8 2671.9

P MIN
5.2
4.8
4.5
4.2
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.2
 m Y=Pp Tr
X=logTr X2=(logTr)² X.Y
(orden) (mm) (años)
1 72.9 10.000 1.000 1.000 72.900
2 69.3 5.000 0.699 0.489 48.439
3 68.8 3.333 0.523 0.273 35.971
4 68.5 2.500 0.398 0.158 27.259
5 68.4 2.000 0.301 0.091 20.590
6 68.4 1.667 0.222 0.049 15.180
7 68.3 1.429 0.155 0.024 10.589
8 68.2 1.250 0.097 0.009 6.609
9 68 1.111 0.046 0.002 3.109
10 67.2 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Suma 688.000 3.440 2.096 240.646

Promedio 68.800 0.344 0.210 24.065
Desv. Est. 8.520

A 23.578
B 18.289
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY
2012 73.4 208.4 114.9 133.6 21.3
2013 147.4 128.3 127.9 24.3 33.2
2014 146.9 113.9 96.3 62.2 50.0
2015 175.6 149.3 134.7 65.9 27.0
2016 49.2 129.6 47.4 82.2 8.7
2017 118.5 145.9 104.2 73.6 28.0
2018 127.5 133.4 102.1 61.6 29.4
2019 123.5 134.4 96.9 69.1 28.6
2020 118.9 138.5 97.1 70.5 24.4
2021 107.5 136.4 89.6 71.4 23.8
2022 119.2 137.7 98.0 69.3 26.8
2023 119.3 136.1 96.7 68.4 26.6
2024 117.7 136.6 95.7 69.7 26.0
2025 116.5 137.1 95.4 69.9 25.5
2026 116.1 136.8 95.1 69.7 25.8
2027 117.8 136.9 96.2 69.4 26.2
2028 117.5 136.7 95.8 69.4 26.0
2029 117.1 136.8 95.6 69.6 25.9
2030 117.0 136.8 95.6 69.6 25.9
2031 117.1 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2032 117.3 136.8 95.8 69.5 26.0
2033 117.2 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2034 117.1 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2035 117.1 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2036 117.2 136.8 95.7 69.6 26.0
2037 117.2 136.8 95.7 69.6 26.0
2038 117.2 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2039 117.1 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9
2040 117.2 136.8 95.7 69.6 25.9

CUADRO DE CALCULO DE PRESIPITACION MAXIMA Y PERIODOS DE RECURRENCIA POSIBLES

Mes Precipitación (mm)
No Año
Max. Precip. xi
1 2017 MAR 145.9
2 2018 FEB 133.4
3 2019 DIC 134.4
4 2020 FEB 138.5
5 2021 DIC 136.4
6 2022 ENE 137.7
7 2023 FEB 136.1
8 2024 FEB 136.6
 9 2025 FEB 137.1
10 2026 FEB 136.8
11 2027 FEB 136.9
12 2028 FEB 136.7
13 2029 FEB 136.8
14 2030 FEB 136.8
15 2031 FEB 136.8
16 2032 FEB 136.8
17 2033 FEB 136.8
18 2034 FEB 136.8
19 2035 FEB 136.8
20 2036 FEB 136.8
21 2037 FEB 136.8
22 2038 FEB 136.8
23 2039 FEB 136.8
24 2040 FEB 136.8

Periodo Variable Precip. Prob. de

Retorno Reducida (mm) ocurrencia
Años YT XT'(mm) F(xT)
2 0.3665129206 136.44391068 0.49
5 1.4999399868 139.43467802 0.8
10 2.2503673273 141.41482623 0.9
25 3.1985342614 143.91674874 0.96
50 3.9019386579 145.77281779 0.98
75 4.3107841108 146.85163588 0.9867
100 4.6001492268 147.61518191 0.99
500 6.2136072641 151.87260415 0.998
 JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
17.0 5.4 1.7 45.8 46.0 47.6 197.7
12.4 10.6 25.0 14.3 46.2 28.9 175.7
9.5 17.5 18.6 62.1 91.5 19.7 103.7
3.0 4.3 23.8 6.2 45.6 32.0 107.7
12.6 14.5 8.4 8.4 44.1 19.0 61.2
10.9 10.5 15.5 27.4 54.7 29.4 129.2
9.7 11.5 0.8 23.7 56.4 25.8 115.5
9.1 11.6 13.4 25.5 58.4 25.2 10.0
9.1 10.5 0.1 18.2 51.8 26.3 9.0
10.3 11.7 7.6 20.6 53.1 25.1 65.0
9.8 11.2 0.5 23.1 54.9 26.4 65.7
9.6 11.3 1.8 22.2 54.9 25.8 53.0
9.6 11.3 4.7 22.0 54.6 25.8 8.0
9.7 11.2 1.1 21.2 53.9 25.9 7.0
9.8 11.3 3.1 21.8 54.3 25.8 39.7
9.7 11.2 1.5 22.1 54.5 25.9 34.7
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.9 54.5 25.8 28.5
9.7 11.2 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 23.6
9.7 11.2 1.5 21.8 54.3 25.8 26.7
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.9 54.4 25.8 30.7
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.9 54.4 25.8 28.8
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 27.7
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 27.5
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.3
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.6
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.2
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.0
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.1
9.7 11.3 1.5 21.8 54.4 25.8 28.2

DE RECURRENCIA POSIBLES
Precipitación (mm)
(xi - x)^2
131.83 PARA EL CALCULO DE LAS PRESIPITACIONES RECURRENTES A 20 AÑOS
1.04
0.00
16.84 x
x i

n
3.80
10.91
2.78 n

x  x
2
4.86 i
i 1
S 
n 1
 n

x  x
2
i
i 1
7.00 S 
n 1
5.54
5.93 6
5.11  *s 

5.66
5.83
5.61 u  x  0.5772 *  
5.63
5.63
5.57
5.66
5.66
5.63
5.63
5.64
5.64

Corrección
intervalo fijo
XT (mm)
177.3770838849
181.2650814213
183.8392740962
187.091773365
189.5046631241
190.9071266445
191.8997364839
197.4343853919

tiempo duracion
Hr 25 años
24 7.795
18 10.528
12 15.909
8 23.987
6 32.906
5 37.418
4 46.773
3 62.364
 2 93.546
1 187.092

c= 0.45
A= 10
I= 187.092
Qmax= 233.865
 ANUAL
208.4
175.7
146.9
175.6
129.6
145.9
133.4
134.4
138.5
136.4
137.7
136.1
136.6
137.1
136.8
136.9
136.7
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8
136.8

S RECURRENTES A 20 AÑOS

x
x i
 137.00 mm
n
 3.38 mm

2.64 mm

135.48 mm