Año Mes Casos (Sin Vacunación) Estacionalidad Nivel

2004 1 1513 0.2994955805

2 1694 0.3165806181
3 2893 0.515604191
4 5685 0.7412476648
5 9306 1.0224076521
6 11353 1.4976558861
7 7914 2.4367094343
8 6766 1.4105182053
9 7105 1.736266763
10 6228 1.1089115436
11 4378 0.8421101826
12 3071 0.6733597974
13 1925 0.3991324812 5371.6154
2005 1 1987 0.2994955805 5534.5694
2 1816 0.3165806181 5619.6579
3 3733 0.515604191 5808.8461
4 4309 0.7412476648 5879.4497
5 5637 1.0224076521 5922.8798
6 6892 1.4976558861 5896.2312
7 10097 2.4367094343 5837.9194
8 10812 1.4105182053 6042.2937
9 13515 1.736266763 6240.3796
10 10329 1.1089115436 6536.2432
11 6307 0.8421101826 6676.4793
12 4402 0.6733597974 6736.5576
13 2814 0.3991324812 6829.865
2006 1 2049 0.2994955805 6901.0052
2 2422 0.3165806181 7026.2882
3 3228 0.515604191 7040.3904
4 4267 0.7412476648 7016.4673
5 6740 1.0224076521 7055.6274
6 15963 1.4976558861 7390.2987
7 20945 2.4367094343 7549.0288
8 9841 1.4105182053 7577.3306
9 8293 1.736266763 7442.0841
10 5409 1.1089115436 7324.2035
11 4430 0.8421101826 7243.0649
12 3909 0.6733597974 7207.8439
13 2740 0.3991324812 7252.9645
2007 1 2074 0.2994955805 7299.1834
2 2028 0.3165806181 7303.9254
3 3622 0.515604191 7353.7274
4 5365 0.7412476648 7415.5068
5 5993 1.0224076521 7371.7734
6 8087 1.4976558861 7297.3569
7 10168 2.4367094343 7138.3705
 8 11086 1.4105182053 7261.5738
9 13501 1.736266763 7369.5989
10 9539 1.1089115436 7530.3264
11 5683 0.8421101826 7543.2449
12 4191 0.6733597974 7516.7277
13 2821 0.3991324812 7554.0743
2008 1 2663 0.2994955805 7722.5074
2 3041 0.3165806181 7930.9845
3 3906 0.515604191 7975.1915
4 5768 0.7412476648 8031.263
5 7709 1.0224076521 8065.5043
6 12538 1.4976558861 8158.2623
7 61653 2.4367094343 9486.5127
8 8043 1.4105182053 9279.1085
9 8196 1.736266763 9014.8884
10 6011 1.1089115436 8821.4331
11 5502 0.8421101826 8723.8403
12 4749 0.6733597974 8671.5001
13 2764 0.3991324812 8613.632
2009 1 2607 0.2994955805 8690.5959
2 2703 0.3165806181 8749.6928
3 4480 0.515604191 8815.5133
4 5615 0.7412476648 8794.7772
5 6897 1.0224076521 8714.7154
6 8074 1.4976558861 8541.1188
7 7386 2.4367094343 8207.0903
8 12665 1.4105182053 8334.0159
9 23070 1.736266763 8767.7544
10 8213 1.1089115436 8738.1435
11 9515 0.8421101826 8996.3414
12 8794 0.6733597974 9364.8044
13 3936 0.3991324812 9471.5291
2010 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2011 1
2
3
4
 5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2012 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Tendencia Proyección Lower Upper

Alpha 0.073378574
Beta 0
Gamma 0

MSE 5695.102174

75.85207101
75.85207101 1631.49242763
75.85207101 1776.150687563
75.85207101 2936.628814299 12

Casos (Sin Vacunación)

75.85207101 4362.018780017 Casos (Sin
Vacunación)
75.85207101 6088.746069591
Proyección
75.85207101 8984.036033036 Int Conf Sup
75.85207101 14552.23173125 10
Int Conf Inf
75.85207101 8341.482265621
75.85207101 10622.73323632
75.85207101 7004.142185215
75.85207101 5568.112735003 8

75.85207101 4546.748504843
75.85207101 2719.053978226
75.85207101 2068.231756206
6
75.85207101 2208.737786263
75.85207101 3661.893292641
75.85207101 5274.898150086
75.85207101 7251.241623912
4
75.85207101 10680.50220404
75.85207101 18192.84003604
75.85207101 10755.03323024
75.85207101 13287.96672367
2
75.85207101 8336.726153421
75.85207101 6231.662129479
75.85207101 4928.264470345
75.85207101 2907.159638987
0
75.85207101 2194.948162555
75.85207101 2334.793276787
75.85207101 3805.044203218
75.85207101 5507.158453151
75.85207101 7659.222592594
75.85207101 11153.98015571
75.85207101 17966.36788109
75.85207101 10175.79228888
75.85207101 12739.72865162
75.85207101 8256.346548759
75.85207101 6405.240308423
75.85207101 5130.393596581
75.85207101 3030.445198879
75.85207101 2285.129220065
75.85207101 2468.809463945
75.85207101 4128.358516332
75.85207101 5967.817252206
75.85207101 8288.776489211
75.85207101 12192.95029396
75.85207101 20064.14416311
75.85207101 13487.88964376
75.85207101 16242.70703555
75.85207101 10080.82708072
75.85207101 7492.494423979
75.85207101 5925.359099778
75.85207101 3491.352374083
75.85207101 2602.462062207
75.85207101 2775.287502172
75.85207101 4550.487913618
75.85207101 6590.703829322
75.85207101 9069.399262275
75.85207101 13165.24510353
75.85207101 20997.05414417
75.85207101 11683.24103317
75.85207101 14601.77418472
75.85207101 9806.777280362
75.85207101 7422.355404398
75.85207101 6108.850342199
75.85207101 3768.07264181
2859.398466586 1189.347592 4529.449341
3022.51583306 1237.864777 4807.166889
4961.779392513 2023.71334 7899.845445
7189.424341803 2920.36275 11458.48593
9993.970783945 4043.294252 15944.64732
14753.09281496 5945.079324 23561.10631
24188.34106527 9709.122423 38667.55971
14108.69932109 5641.330106 22576.06854
17498.69661473 6970.140802 28027.25243
11260.10709249 4468.273275 18051.94091
8614.829115968 3405.843293 13823.81494
6939.580004655 2733.448015 11145.71199
4143.695215478 1626.235199 6661.155232
 Peso_Conf 0.1

Tendencia inicial 1

Proyección de casos a un año (modelo Holt-Winters)

12
Casos (Sin
Vacunación)
Proyección
Int Conf Sup
10
Int Conf Inf

0
Año
 Sigma SQ 0.1268301

Av Conf 0.59730464

MRSE 0.35613214

Max 24188.3411

Holt-Winters) Acum 125390.435

r1 0.0088912