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PRESENTADO POR:
PRESENTADO A:
UNIVERSIDAD DE CÓRDOBA
FACULTA DE INGENIERIAS
MONTERIA-CÓRDOBA
2018
1. a) Para 6 semanas n=6
28 + 16 + 73 + 61 + 57 + 43
𝑓7 = = 46.33
6
16 + 73 + 61 + 57 + 43 + 44
𝑓8 = = 49
6
73 + 61 + 57 + 43 + 44 + 68
𝑓9 = = 57.67
6
61 + 57 + 43 + 44 + 68 + 68
𝑓10 = = 56.83
6
57 + 43 + 44 + 68 + 68 + 73
𝑓11 = = 58.83
6
43 + 44 + 68 + 68 + 73 + 84
𝑓12 = = 63.33
6
44 + 68 + 68 + 73 + 84 + 93
𝑓13 = = 71.67
6
68 + 68 + 73 + 84 + 93 + 128
𝑓14 = = 85.67
6
68 + 73 + 84 + 93 + 128 + 100
𝑓15 = = 91
6
(44−46.33)+(68−49)+(68−57.67)+(73−56.83)+(84−58.83)+(93−63.33)+
(128−71.67)+(100−85.67)+(130−91)+(148−101.33)+(147−113.83)+
(142−124.33)+(134−132.5)+(159−133.5)
𝑀𝐴𝐷
14
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 18.16
Para 4 semanas n=4
𝑓 28+16+73+61
5= 4 = 44.5
𝑓 16+73+61+57
6= 4 = 51.75
𝑓 73+61+57+43
7= 4 =58.5
𝑓 61+57+43+44
8= 4 = 51.25
𝑓 57+43+44+68
9= 4 = 53
𝑓 43+44+68+68
10= 4 = 55.75
𝑓 44+68+68+73
11= = 63.25
4
𝑓 68+68+73+84
12= 4 = 73.25
𝑓 68+73+84+93
13= 4 = 79.5
𝑓 73+84+93+128
14= = 94.5
4
𝑓 84+93+128+100
15= 4 = 101.25
𝑓 93+128+100+130
16= = 112.75
4
𝑓 128+100+130+148
17= 4 = 126.5
𝑓 100+130+148+147
18= 4 = 131.25
𝑓 130+148+147+142
19= = 141.75
4
𝑓 148+147+142+134
20= 4 = 142.75
𝑓 147+142+134+159
21= 4 = 145.5
𝑀𝐴𝐷 =
(57−44.5)+(43−51.75)+(44−58.5)+(68−51.25)+(68−53)+(73−55.75)+
(84−63.25)+(93−73.25)+(128−79.5)+(100−94.5)+(130−101.25)+
(148−112.75)+(147−126.5)+(142−131.25)+(134−141.75)+(159−142.75)
16
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 24.06
b) con n=5
1 28 0
2 16 0
3 73 0
4 61 0
5 57 0
6 43 55,05
7 44 51,55
8 68 48,8
9 68 55,6
10 73 61,35
11 84 66,35
12 93 74,7
13 128 83,55
14 100 102,4
15 130 104,4
16 148 114,7
17 147 130,65
18 142 139,1
19 134 141,1
20 159 139,55
21 147,2
𝑓6 =(57∗0.4)+(61∗0.3)+(73∗0.15)+(16∗0.10)+(28∗0.05)= 55.05
𝑓7 =(43∗0.4)+(57∗0.3)+(61∗0.15)+(73∗0.10)+(16∗0.05)= 51.55
𝑓8 =(44∗0.4)+(43∗0.3)+(57∗0.15)+(61∗0.10)+(73∗0.05)= 48.8
𝑓9 =(68∗0.4)+(44∗0.3)+(43∗0.15)+(57∗0.10)+(61∗0.05)= 55.6
𝑓12 =(84∗0.4)+(73∗0.3)+(68∗0.15)+(68∗0.10)+(44∗0.05)=74.7
𝑓13 =(93∗0.4)+(84∗0.3)+(73∗0.15)+(68∗0.10)+(68∗0.05)= 83.55
𝑓17 =(148∗0.4)+(130∗0.3)+(100∗0.15)+(128∗0.10)+(93∗0.05)=130.65
𝑀𝐴𝐷 =
(43−55.05)+(44−51.55)+(68−48.8)+(68−55.6)+(73−61.35)+(84−66.35)+
(93−74.7)+(128−83.55)+(100−102.4)+(130−104.4)+(1448−114.7)+
(147−130.65)+(142−139.10)+(134−141.1)+(159−139.55)
15
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 26.50
180
160
140
120
UNIDADES
100
80 Demanda
60 Pronóstico
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021
PERIODO
C) Con α=0.3
α 0.3
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico
1 28 30
2 16 29,40
3 73 25,38
4 61 39,67
5 57 46,07
6 43 49,35
7 44 47,44
8 68 46,41
9 68 52,89
10 73 57,42
11 84 62,09
12 93 68,67
13 128 75,97
14 100 91,58
15 130 94,10
16 148 104,87
17 147 117,81
18 142 126,57
19 134 131,20
20 159 132,04
21 140,13
𝑓2=30+0.3(28−30)=29.40
𝑓3=29.4+0.3(16−29.4)=25.38
𝑓4=25.38+0.3(73−25.38)=39.67
𝑓5=39.67+0.3(61−39.67)=46.07
𝑓6=46.07+0.3(57−46.07)=49.35
𝑓7=49.35+0.3(43−49.35)=47.44
𝑓8=47.44+0.3(44−47.44)=46.41
𝑓9=46.41+0.3(68−46.41)=52.89
𝑓10=52.89+0.3(68−52.89)=57.42
𝑓11=57.42+0.3(73−57.42)=62.09
𝑓12=62.09+0.3(84−62.09)=68.67
𝑓13=68.67+0.3(93−68.67)=75.97
𝑓14=75.97+0.3(128−75.97)=91.58
𝑓15=91.58+0.3(100−91.58)=94.10
𝑓16=94.10+0.3(130−94.10)=104.87
𝑓17=104.87+0.3(148−104.87)=117.81
𝑓18=117.81+0.3(147−117.81)=126.57
𝑓19=126.57+0.3(142−126.57)=131.2
𝑓20=131.2+0.3(134−131.2)=132.04
𝑓21=132.04+0.3(159−132.04)=140.13
𝑀𝐴𝐷 =
(28−30)+(16−29.4)+(73−25.38)+(61−39.67)+(57−46.07)+(43−49.35)
+(44−47.44)+(68−46.41)+(68−58.89)+(73−57.42)+(84−62.09)+
(93−68.67)+(128−75.97)+(100−91.58)+(130−94.10)+(148−104.87)+
(147−117.81)+(142−126.57)+(134−131.2)+(159−132.04)
20
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 78.45
Con α=0.2
α 0.2
Periodo Demanda Pronóstico
1 28 29
2 16 28,8
3 73 26,24
4 61 35,59
5 57 40,67
6 43 43,94
7 44 43,75
8 68 43,80
9 68 48,64
10 73 52,51
11 84 56,61
12 93 62,09
13 128 68,27
14 100 80,22
15 130 84,17
16 148 93,34
17 147 104,27
18 142 112,82
19 134 118,65
20 159 121,72
21 129,18
𝑓2=29+0.2(28−29)=28.8
𝑓3=28.8+0.2(16−28.8)=26.24
𝑓4=26.24+0.2(73−26.24)=35.59
𝑓5=35.59+0.2(61−35.59)=40.67
𝑓6=40.67+0.2(57−40.67)=43.94
𝑓7=43.94+0.2(43−43.94)=43.75
𝑓8=43.75+0.2(44−43.75)=43.80
𝑓9=43.80+0.2(68−43.80)=48.64
𝑓10=48.64+0.2(68−48.64)=52.21
𝑓11=52.21+0.2(73−52.21)=56.61
𝑓12=56.61+0.2(84−56.61)=62.09
𝑓13=62.09+0.2(93−62.09)=68.27
𝑓14=68.27+0.2(128−68.27)=80.22
𝑓15=80.22+0.2(100−80.22)=84.17
𝑓16=84.17+0.2(130−84.17)=93.34
𝑓17=93.34+0.2(148−93.34)=104.27
𝑓18=104.27+0.2(147−104.27)=112.82
𝑓19=112.82+0.2(142−112.82)=118.65
𝑓20=118.65+0.2(134−118.65)=121.72
𝑓21=121.72+0.2(159−121.72)=129.18
𝑀𝐴𝐷 =
(28−29)+(16−28.8)+(73−26.24)+(61−35.39)+(57−40.67)+(43−43.94)
+(44−43.75)+(68−43.80)+(68−48.64)+(73−52.51)+(84−56.61)+
(93−62.09)+(128−68.27)+(100−80.22)+(130−84.17)+(148−93.34)+
(147−104.27)+(142−112.82)+(134−118.65)+(159−121.72)
20
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 71.21