Año Trimestre Ventas de Papel Año
1977 1 3,017.60 1980
2 3,043.54
3 2,094.35
4 2,809.84
1978 1 3,274.80 1981
2 3,163.28
3 2,114.31
4 3,024.57
1979 1 3,327.48
2 3,493.48
3 2,439.93
4 3,490.79
Trimestre Ventas de Papel
1 3,685.08
2 3,661.32
3 2,378.43
4 3,459.55
1 3,849.63
2 3,701.18
3 2,642.38
4 3,585.52
Año Trimestre Periodo Ventas de Papel Promedio Movible Movible Doble
1977 1 1 3017.6
2 2 3043.54
3 3 2094.35 2741.33 2773.48
4 4 2809.84 2805.63 2820.60
1978 1 5 3274.8 2835.57 2838.06
2 6 3163.28 2840.56 2867.40
3 7 2114.31 2894.24 2900.83
4 8 3024.57 2907.41 2948.69
1979 1 9 3327.48 2989.96 3030.66
2 10 3493.48 3071.37 3129.64
3 11 2439.93 3187.92 3232.62
4 12 3490.79 3277.32 3298.30
1980 1 13 3685.08 3319.28 3311.59
2 14 3661.32 3303.91 3300.00
3 15 2378.43 3296.10 3316.66
4 16 3459.55 3337.23 3342.22
1981 1 17 3849.63 3347.20 3380.19
2 18 3701.18 3413.19 3428.93
3 19 2642.38 3444.68
4 20 3585.52
Estacionalidad
Índices Estacionales Sin Ajuste
Año/Trimestre 1 2 3 4 Suma
75.51% 1977 0.7551 0.9962 1.7513
99.62% 1978 1.1539 1.1032 0.7289 1.0257 4.0117
115.39% 1979 1.0979 1.1163 0.7548 1.0584 4.0273
110.32% 1980 1.1128 1.1095 0.7171 1.0351 3.9745
72.89% 1981 1.1389 1.0794 2.2183
102.57% Suma 4.5035 4.4083 2.9559 4.1154 15.9831
109.79% Promedio 1.1259 1.1021 0.7390 1.0288 3.9958
111.63%
75.48% Factor de Ajuste 1.0010572
105.84%
111.28% Índices Estacionales Ajustados
110.95% Año/Trimestre 1 2 3 4 Suma
71.71% 1977 0.0000 0.0000 0.7559 0.9972 1.7532
103.51% 1978 1.1551 1.1044 0.7296 1.0268 4.0159
113.89% 1979 1.0991 1.1174 0.7556 1.0595 4.0316
107.94% 1980 1.1140 1.1107 0.7179 1.0362 3.9787
1981 1.1401 1.0805 0.0000 0.0000 2.2206
Suma 4.5082 4.4130 2.9590 4.1197 16.0000
Promedio 1.1271 1.1032 0.7398 1.0299 4.0000
Año Trimestre Año-Trimestre Periodo Ventas de Papel
1977 1 1977 - 1 1 3017.60
2 1977 - 2 2 3043.54
3 1977 - 3 3 2094.35
4 1977 - 4 4 2809.84 4500.00
1978 1 1978 - 1 5 3274.80
4000.00
2 1978 - 2 6 3163.28
3 1978 - 3 7 2114.31 3500.00
4 1978 - 4 8 3024.57
3000.00
1979 1 1979 - 1 9 3327.48
2 1979 - 2 10 3493.48 2500.00
3 1979 - 3 11 2439.93 2000.00
4 1979 - 4 12 3490.79
1500.00
1980 1 1980 - 1 13 3685.08
2 1980 - 2 14 3661.32 1000.00
3 1980 - 3 15 2378.43
500.00
4 1980 - 4 16 3459.55
1981 1 1981 - 1 17 3849.63 0.00
2 1981 - 2 18 3701.18 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3
7 7 77 77 77 78 78 78 7
3 1981 - 3 19 2642.38 1 9 19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9
4 1981 - 4 20 3585.52
 Ventas de Papel
4500.00

4000.00

3500.00

3000.00

2500.00
Ventas de Papel
2000.00

1500.00

1000.00

500.00

0.00
-1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4
7 7 77 77 77 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 80 8 0 80 80 81 81 81 81
1 9 19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9
Año Trimestre Año-Trimestre Periodo Ventas de Papel Tendencia Estacionalidad
1977 1 1977 - 1 1 3017.60 2754.80 112.71%
2 1977 - 2 2 3043.54 2792.49 110.32%
3 1977 - 3 3 2094.35 2830.18 73.98%
4 1977 - 4 4 2809.84 2867.87 102.99%
1978 1 1978 - 1 5 3274.80 2905.56 112.71%
2 1978 - 2 6 3163.28 2943.25 110.32%
3 1978 - 3 7 2114.31 2980.94 73.98%
4 1978 - 4 8 3024.57 3018.63 102.99%
1979 1 1979 - 1 9 3327.48 3056.32 112.71%
2 1979 - 2 10 3493.48 3094.01 110.32%
3 1979 - 3 11 2439.93 3131.70 73.98%
4 1979 - 4 12 3490.79 3169.39 102.99%
1980 1 1980 - 1 13 3685.08 3207.08 112.71%
2 1980 - 2 14 3661.32 3244.77 110.32%
3 1980 - 3 15 2378.43 3282.46 73.98%
4 1980 - 4 16 3459.55 3320.15 102.99%
1981 1 1981 - 1 17 3849.63 3357.83 112.71%
2 1981 - 2 18 3701.18 3395.52 110.32%
3 1981 - 3 19 2642.38 3433.21 73.98%
4 1981 - 4 20 3585.52 3470.90 102.99%

Tendencia de la serie
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00 Ventas de Papel
2000.00 Tendencia
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
-1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4
7 7 77 77 77 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 81
1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 19 1 9 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 19 19 19
 Pronóstico |Error| |Error/Xt| Índices Estacionales Ajustados
3104.83 87.23 2.89% Trimestre Índice
3080.81 37.27 1.22% 1 1.1270615574
2093.64 0.71 0.03% 2 1.1032480715
2953.72 143.88 5.12% 3 0.739755739
3274.75 0.05 0.00% 4 1.0299346322
3247.13 83.85 2.65%
2205.17 90.86 4.30%
3108.99 84.42 2.79% Tendencia
3444.66 117.18 3.52% Intercepto (a) 2717.1128947
3413.46 80.02 2.29% Pendiente (b) 37.689533835
2316.69 123.24 5.05%
3264.26 226.53 6.49%
3614.57 70.51 1.91% MAD = 77.03
3579.78 81.54 2.23% MSE = 8568.13
2428.22 49.79 2.09% MAPE = 2.54%
3419.53 40.02 1.16%
3784.49 65.14 1.69%
3746.11 44.93 1.21%
2539.74 102.64 3.88%
3574.80 10.72 0.30%

Pronósticos de las ventas con Tendencia y Estacionalidad

4500.00

4000.00

3500.00
ntas de Papel
ndencia
3000.00 Ventas de
Pronóstic
2500.00

2000.00

1500.00
-1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4
77 77 77 77 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 81
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
y Estacionalidad

Ventas de Papel
Pronóstico

-1 -2 -3 -4
81 81 81 81
19 19 19
Año Trimestre Año-Trimestre Periodo Ventas de Papel Promedio Móvil Móvil Doble
1977 1 1977 - 1 1 3017.60
2 1977 - 2 2 3043.54
3 1977 - 3 3 2094.35 2741.33 2773.48
4 1977 - 4 4 2809.84 2805.63 2820.60
1978 1 1978 - 1 5 3274.80 2835.57 2838.06
2 1978 - 2 6 3163.28 2840.56 2867.40
3 1978 - 3 7 2114.31 2894.24 2900.83
4 1978 - 4 8 3024.57 2907.41 2948.69
1979 1 1979 - 1 9 3327.48 2989.96 3030.66
2 1979 - 2 10 3493.48 3071.37 3129.64
3 1979 - 3 11 2439.93 3187.92 3232.62
4 1979 - 4 12 3490.79 3277.32 3298.30
1980 1 1980 - 1 13 3685.08 3319.28 3311.59
2 1980 - 2 14 3661.32 3303.91 3300.00
3 1980 - 3 15 2378.43 3296.10 3316.66
4 1980 - 4 16 3459.55 3337.23 3342.22
1981 1 1981 - 1 17 3849.63 3347.20 3380.19
2 1981 - 2 18 3701.18 3413.19 3428.93
3 1981 - 3 19 2642.38 3444.68
4 1981 - 4 20 3585.52

Ajuste del Modelo

4500.00

4000.00

3500.00

3000.00

2500.00

2000.00

1500.00
-3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1
7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 81
1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 19
 Estacionalidad Tendencia Ciclo Pronóstico |Error| |Error/Xt| Índices Estacionales Ajustado
112.71% 2754.80 Trimestre
110.32% 2792.49 1
73.98% 2830.18 98.00% 2051.70 42.65 2.04% 2
102.99% 2867.87 98.35% 2905.03 95.19 3.39% 3
112.71% 2905.56 97.68% 3198.67 76.13 2.32% 4
110.32% 2943.25 97.42% 3163.45 0.17 0.01%
73.98% 2980.94 97.31% 2145.90 31.59 1.49%
102.99% 3018.63 97.68% 3036.95 12.38 0.41% Tendencia
112.71% 3056.32 99.16% 3415.74 88.26 2.65% Intercepto (a)
110.32% 3094.01 101.15% 3452.77 40.71 1.17% Pendiente (b)
73.98% 3131.70 103.22% 2391.35 48.58 1.99%
102.99% 3169.39 104.07% 3397.03 93.76 2.69%
112.71% 3207.08 103.26% 3732.37 47.29 1.28% MAD =
110.32% 3244.77 101.70% 3640.72 20.60 0.56% MSE =
73.98% 3282.46 101.04% 2453.52 75.09 3.16% MAPE =
102.99% 3320.15 100.66% 3442.26 17.29 0.50%
112.71% 3357.83 100.67% 3809.68 39.95 1.04%
110.32% 3395.52 100.98% 3782.96 81.78 2.21%
73.98% 3433.21
102.99% 3470.90

del Modelo

Ventas de Papel
Pronóstico

-4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2
9 0 0 0 0 1 1
1 97 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98
ices Estacionales Ajustados
Índice
1.1270615574
1.1032480715
0.739755739
1.0299346322

Tendencia
2717.112894737
37.6895338346

50.71
3456.75
1.68%
1990 Demanda 1991 Demanda 1992 Demanda periodo Año
1 12 1 16 1 14 1 1990
2 25 2 32 2 45 2 1990
3 76 3 71 3 84 3 1990
4 52 4 62 4 47 4 1990
5 1991
6 1991
7 1991
8 1991
9 1992
10 1992
11 1992
12 1992
13 1993
14 1993
15 1993
16 1993
Trimestre Demanda MA(4) Centrada Estacionalidacoef est tendencia Xt
1 12 0.32 31.5 10
2 25 0.80 33.9 27
3 76 41.25 41.75 1.82035928 1.65 36.3 60
4 52 42.25 43.125 1.2057971 1.24 38.7 48
1 16 44 43.375 0.36887608 0.32 41.1 13
2 32 42.75 44 0.72727273 0.80 43.5 35
3 71 45.25 45 1.57777778 1.65 45.9 76
4 62 44.75 46.375 1.33692722 1.24 48.3 60
1 14 48 49.625 0.28211587 0.32 50.7 16
2 45 51.25 49.375 0.91139241 0.80 53.1 42
3 84 47.5 1.65 55.5 92
4 47 1.24 57.9 72
1 0.32 60.3 19
2 0.80 62.7 50
3 1.65 65.1 108
4 1.24 67.5 83
periodo 1 2 3 4 suma
1990 1.82 1.21 3.03
1991 0.37 0.73 1.58 1.34 4.01
1992 0.28 0.91 1.19
suma 0.65 1.64 3.40 2.54 8.23 suma tota
Promedio 0.33 0.82 1.70 1.27 4.12

0.97199223 factor ajuste

periodo 1 2 3 4 suma
1990 1.77 1.17 2.94
1991 0.36 0.71 1.53 1.30 3.90
1992 0.27 0.89 1.16
suma 0.63 1.59 3.30 2.47 8.00
prome 0.32 0.80 1.65 1.24 4.00
periodo Año Trimestre Demanda MA(4) Centrada Estacionalidad coef est
1 1990 1 12 0.31637956
2 1990 2 25 0.79638489
3 1990 3 76 41.25 41.75 1.8203592814 1.65148141
4 1990 4 52 42.25 43.125 1.2057971014 1.23575414
5 1991 1 16 44 43.375 0.3688760807 0.31637956
6 1991 2 32 42.75 44 0.7272727273 0.79638489
7 1991 3 71 45.25 45 1.5777777778 1.65148141
8 1991 4 62 44.75 46.375 1.3369272237 1.23575414
9 1992 1 14 48 49.625 0.282115869 0.31637956
10 1992 2 45 51.25 49.375 0.9113924051 0.79638489
11 1992 3 84 47.5 1.65148141
12 1992 4 47 1.23575414
13 1993 1 0.31637956
14 1993 2 0.79638489
15 1993 3 1.65148141
16 1993 4 1.23575414
tendencia ciclo pronostico
31.5
33.9
36.3 1.15 69
38.7 1.11 53
41.1 1.06 14
43.5 1.01 35
45.9 0.98 74
48.3 0.96 57
50.7 0.98 16
53.1 0.93 39
55.5
57.9
60.3
62.7
65.1
67.5