Forecasting

1400

1200

1000

800

Demand
Value

Forecast
600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Time
Luis Diego Piacenza
3/12/17

Suavizacin exponencial simple

Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1)
1) then
then enter
enter the
the
past
past demands
demands inin the
the shaded
shaded area.
area.

Alpha 0.3
Data Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared
Perodo 1 1194 1194
Perodo 2 1079 1194 -115 115 13225
Perodo 3 1083 1159.5 -76.5 76.5 5852.25
Perodo 4 1248 1136.55 111.45 111.45 12421.1025
Perodo 5 1247 1169.985 77.015 77.015 5931.310225
Perodo 6 1176 1193.0895 -17.0895 17.0895 292.0510103
Perodo 7 1295 1187.96265 107.03735 107.03735 11456.9943
Perodo 8 1273 1220.073855 52.926145 52.926145 2801.176825
Perodo 9 1068 1235.951699 -167.951699 167.9516985 28207.77303
Perodo 10 1208 1185.566189 22.43381105 22.43381105 503.2758782
Perodo 11 1294 1192.296332 101.7036677 101.7036677 10343.63603
Perodo 12 1073 1222.807433 -149.807433 149.8074326 22442.26686
Perodo 13 1160 1177.865203 -17.8652028 17.86520281 319.1654714
Perodo 14 1031 1172.505642 -141.505642 141.505642 20023.84671
Perodo 15 1299 1130.053949 168.9460506 168.9460506 28542.76802
Perodo 16 1202 1180.737765 21.26223544 21.26223544 452.0826557
Perodo 17 1004 1187.116435 -183.116435 183.1164352 33531.62884
Perodo 18 1172 1132.181505 39.81849536 39.81849536 1585.512573
Perodo 19 1030 1144.127053 -114.127053 114.1270532 13024.98428
Perodo 20 1030 1109.888937 -79.8889373 79.88893727 6382.242298
Perodo 21 1239 1085.922256 153.0777439 153.0777439 23432.79568
Perodo 22 1085 1131.845579 -46.8455793 46.84557926 2194.508297
Perodo 23 1013 1117.791905 -104.791905 104.7919055 10981.34346
Perodo 24 1088 1086.354334 1.645666161 1.645666161 2.708217114
Total -357.173221 2071.805552 253950.4231
Average -15.5292705 90.07850224 11041.32275
Bias MAD MSE
SE
Next period 1086.84803