RESUMEN

La investigacin desarrollada tuvo por objetivo mejorar el clculo de la demanda de

agua en la empresa SEDALIB S.A. de la ciudad de Trujillo-2016 mediante un sistema
de pronostico va web basado en redes neuronales, con el fin de mejorar el tiempo de
clculo de demanda, elaboracin de informes y el tiempo en el clculo de error de la
demanda de agua potable a cada Distrito de la provincia de Trujillo. La poblacin
estuvo compuesta por 40 procesos de pronstico de consumo de agua potable (en
m3) en el lapso de un mes, los cuales a la vez fueron la muestra definida para la
investigacin. El muestreo fue no probabilstico por conveniencia.

Para la recoleccin de datos se utiliz como instrumento: la ficha de observacin; con

el fin de medir los indicadores propuestos, el tiempo promedio para el clculo de
demanda de agua potable, el tiempo promedio en la elaboracin de informes sobre el
consumo de agua potable y el tiempo en el clculo del margen de error de demanda
de agua potable.
Con un diseo pre-experimental de pre test post test con un solo grupo, con un tipo
de estudio Explicativo Experimental Aplicado se obtuvieron resultados positivos como
la disminucin en el tiempo de clculo de la demanda de agua potable de 31,36
minutos a 3,18 minutos que representa un 89.84%; asimismo, se redujo el tiempo de
elaboracin de informes sobre el consumo de agua potable de 21, 25 minutos a 6.83
segundos que representa un 99.46%, esto fue validado y probado por el representante
de la empresa SEDALIB S.A.

Se logro desarrollar e implementar un Sistema Inteligente para el pronstico va web

basado en redes neuronales para el clculo de demanda de agua potable en la
empresa SEDALIB S.A de la Ciudad de Trujillo. Para el desarrollo de este sistema
inteligente basado en redes neuronales se utiliz la metodologa CommondKADS
como metodologa de adquisicin de conocimiento y as determinar las patrones de
entrada representada en incremento/decremento de agua en funcin del consumo
histrico mensual para la formulacin de demanda de agua potable adecuadas para la
expensa de cada una de las poblaciones; se us la informacin proporcionada por el
encargado (SEDALIB S.A.). Tambin se emple la metodologa XP para el desarrollo
del sistema propiamente dicho. Adems, se opt por JSP (Java Server Page) como
lenguaje de programacin para la codificacin del sistema inteligente basado en redes
neuronales. Asimismo, se eligi MySQL 5.5.24, como gestor de base de datos y
soporte de conexin; y el servidor web Glass Fish 4.1.

Para la contrastacin de la hiptesis planteada se aplic la prueba de Wilcoxon,

debido a que se comprob que la muestra tena una distribucin no normal. La
implementacin del Sistema inteligente basado en redes neuronales para el clculo de
demanda de agua potable, determinando una valuacin de agua potable (en m3) para
el clculo de consumo de cada poblacin est en base a la informacin proporcionada
por los consumos anteriores (histrico de mensual de aos anteriores) respecto a la
misma poblacin que se calcularon a travs de los datos consolidados de consumo
mensual de cada poblacin.

Palabras Clave: Sistema inteligente, pronstico de consumo, metodologa

CommondKADS, metodologa XP, tiempo de clculo de demanda, tiempo de informes.
 ABSTRACT

The research carried out was aimed at improving the calculation of water demand in the
company SEDALIB S.A. Of the city of Trujillo-2016 by means of a web forecast
system based on neural networks, in order to improve the calculation time of demand,
reporting and the time in the calculation of error of the demand of drinking water to
each District of the province of Trujillo. The population was composed of 40 processes
of forecasting drinking water consumption (in m3) within one month, which were at the
same time the sample defined for the investigation. Sampling was non-probabilistic for
convenience.

For the collection of data was used as instrument: the observation sheet; In order to
measure the proposed indicators, the average time for the calculation of drinking water
demand, the average time in the reporting of consumption of drinking water and the
time in the calculation of the margin of error of demand for drinking water.

With a pre-experimental design of pre-test-post test with a single group, with a type of
Explanatory Experimental Applied study, positive results were obtained as the decrease
in the time of calculation of the demand of potable water of 31,36 minutes to 3 , 18
minutes representing 89.84%; Likewise, the reporting time for drinking water
consumption was reduced from 21, 25 minutes to 6.83 seconds, which represents
99.46%. This was validated and tested by the representative of SEDALIB S.A.

It was possible to develop and implement an Intelligent System for web forecasting
based on neural networks for the calculation of demand for drinking water in the
company SEDALIB S.A of the City of Trujillo. For the development of this intelligent
system based on neural networks, the CommondKADS methodology was used as a
methodology to acquire knowledge and thus determine the input patterns represented in
increment / decrement of water as a function of the monthly historical consumption for
the formulation of demand for drinking water Suitable for the expense of each of the
populations; The information provided by the manager (SEDALIB S.A.) was used. The
XP methodology was also used for the development of the system itself. In addition,
JSP (Java Server Page) was chosen as programming language for the coding of the
intelligent system based on neural networks. Likewise, MySQL 5.5.24 was chosen as
database manager and connection support; And the Glass Fish 4.1 web server.

Wilcoxon's test was used to test the hypothesis, because the sample was found to have a
non-normal distribution. The implementation of the Intelligent System based on neural
networks for the calculation of drinking water demand, determining a potable water
valuation (in m3) for the calculation of consumption of each population is based on the
information provided by previous consumption Monthly of previous years) in relation to
the same population that were calculated through the consolidated data of monthly
consumption of each population.

Keywords: Smart system, consumption forecast, CommondKADS methodology, XP

methodology, demand calculation time, reporting time
.