promedio

promnedio movil 4 movil

aos trimestre ventas en miles trimestre centrado
1 4.80

1 2 4.10 5.350
3 6.00 5.600 5.475
4 6.50 5.875 5.738
1 5.80 6.075 5.975
2 5.20 6.300 6.188
2
3 6.80 6.350 6.325
4 7.40 6.450 6.400
1 6.00 6.625 6.538
2 5.60 6.725 6.675
3
3 7.50 6.800 6.763
4 7.80 6.875 6.838
1 6.30 7.000 6.938
2 5.90 7.150 7.075
4
3 8.00 7.433 7.292
4 8.40 8.200 7.817

TRIMESTRE t VENTAS Yt tYt t2

1 5.161 5.16 1
2 4.881 9.76 4
3 5.505 16.51 9
4 5.752 23.01 16
5 6.237 31.18 25
6 6.190 37.14 36
7 6.239 43.67 49
8 6.549 52.39 64
9 6.452 58.06 81
10 6.667 66.67 100
11 6.881 75.69 121
12 6.903 82.83 144
13 6.774 88.06 169
14 7.024 98.33 196
15 7.339 110.09 225
16 7.434 118.94 256
total 136 101.986 917.51 1496
6.3741269731
valor INDICE VENTAS
estacional ESTACIONBAL DESESTACIONALIZ
IRREGULAR IRREGULAR ADAS
0.93 5.161 CAUCULO DEL INDICE

0.84 4.881 trimestre

1.096 1.09 5.505 1
1.133 1.13 5.752 2
0.971 0.93 6.237 3
0.840 0.84 6.190 4
1.075 1.09 6.239
1.156 1.13 6.549
0.918 0.93 6.452
0.839 0.84 6.667
1.109 1.09 6.881
1.141 1.13 6.903
0.908 0.93 6.774
0.834 0.84 7.024
1.097 1.09 7.339
1.075 1.13 7.434

b1= 0.6436
b0=
T=
CAUCULO DEL INDICE ESTACIONAL
indice
valor del componente estacional
0,971-0,918-0,908 0.932
0.84
1.09
1.13
TRIMESTRE VENTAS Yt
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15