SUSTAINABILITY Phosphorus: A Loomin This underappreciated resource—a key part of fertilizers—is still decades from running out. But we must act now to conserve it, or future KEY CONCEPTS, |= Mining phosphorus fr fertilizer {consuming the mineral faster than geologic cycles canre- plonsh it.The U.S. may un ‘ut ofits accesible domestic sources in afew decades, and few other countries have substantial reserves, which ‘ould also be depleted in about a century 1 cess phosphorusin water ways helps to fed algal blooms, which starve fish of oxygen, creating “dead zones.” ‘Reducing si erosion and recycling phosphors from fam ‘and human waste could help take ood production sustain able and prevent algal blooms —The Editors 42 scientific AMERICAN agriculture will collapse scomplex.as the chemistry oflfemay be, the conditions for the vigorous growth of plants often boil down to three numbers, say, 19-12-5, Those ae the percentages of nitro- ‘gen, phosphorus and potassium, prominently displayed on every package of fertilizer. In the 20th century the three nutrients enabled agri- culture to increase its productivity and the ‘world’s population to grow more than sixfold. But what is their source? We obtain nitrogen from the ai, but we must mine phosphorus and potassium, The world has enough potassium to last several centuries. But phosphorus isa dif- ferent story. Readily available global supplies ‘may start running out by the end of this centu: 1. By then our population may have reached a peak that some say is beyond what the planet ‘can sustainably feed. “Moreover, trouble may surface much sooner. ‘As ast year’s ol price swings have shown, mar- kets can tighten long before a given resource is anywhere near its end. And reserves of phos phorus are even lessevenly distributed than oil’, raising additional supply concerns. The U.S. is the world’s second-largest producer of phospho- ‘us (after China), at 19 percent of the total, but 65 percent of that amount comes froma single source: pit mines near Tampa, Fla., which may i ua ela ee © By David A. Vaccari not last more than a few decades. Meanwhile nearly 40 percent of global reserves are con- trolled by a single country, Morocco, sometimes. referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of phospho- rus.” Although Morocco isa stable, friendly na- tion, the imbalance makes phosphorus a geo- strategic ticking time bomb. Inaddition, fertilizers take an environmental toll, Modern agriculeural practices have tripled the natural rate of phosphorus depletion from the land, and excessive runoff into waterways is feeding uncontrolled algal blooms and throw- ing aquatic ecosystems off-kilter. While little at tention has been paid to it as compared with ‘other elements such as carbon or nitrogen, phos- phorus has become one of the most significant sustainability issues of our time. Green Revelation My interstin phosphorus dates back to the mid- 1990s, when I became involved in a NASA pro- gram aiming to earn how to grow food in space. ‘The design of such a system requires a careful analysis ofthe cycles of all elements that go into food and that would need to be recycled within the closed environment of a spaceship. Such know-how may be necessary for a future trip to ‘Mars, which would last almost three years. June 2009risis Our planer is also a spaceship: it has an es sentially fixed total amount of each element. In the natural cycle, weathering releases phospho- rus from rocks into soil. Taken up by plants, it enters the food chain and makes ts way through very living being. Phosphorus—usually in the form of the phosphate ion PO4*—is an irre placeable ingredient of life. It forms the back: bone of DNA and of cellular membranes, andit is the crucial component in the molecule ade nosine triphosphate, or ATP—the cell's main form of energy storage. An average human body contains about 650 grams of phosphorus, most of it in our bones Land ecosystems use and reuse phosphorus inlocal eyeles an average of 46 times. The min: eral then, through weathering and runoff, sakes its way into the ocean, where marine or sganisms may recycle it some 800 times before it passes into sedimen years tectonic uplift may recurn it to dry land. Harvesting breaks up the cycle because it re moves phosphorus from the land. In prescien- tificagriculture, when human and animal waste served as fertilizers, nutrients went back into Over tens of millions of the soil at roughly the rate they had been with: drawn, But our modern society separates food production and consumption, which limits our ability to retuen nutrients to the land. Instead wwe use them once and then flush them away. Agriculture also accelerates land erosion— because plowing and tilling disturb and expose the soil—so more phosphorus drains away with runoff, And flood control contributes to dis rupting the natural phosphorus cycle. Typically river floods would redistribute phosphorus-rich sediment to lower lands where itis again avail: ns trap sedi able for ecosystems. Instead di www ScientificAmerican.com screntiric american 43,CONCENTRATED RESOURCES Together wth itvogen and potassium, phosphors i rua ingredient in {ertizes tis extracted from phosphorus ich ock in the form of phosphate. ‘Morocco, Cina, South Ac and the US hold 83 percent ofthe world’s ‘eal exploitable phosphate rock and contribute two thirds ofthe annual phosphorus production (circles, below). Atcurrent rates of ‘extraction (bars, below), known U.S. reserves are projected to last {40 years. Globally about 90 yeas’ worth of phosphorus remains ‘nce the resource starts runing out, ess economia supplies may ‘ave tobe tapped which could resin higher pices and market . [soLUTIONS} Restoring Balance to PHASE QUTLEAD the Phosphorus Cycle coca nat na eS aa | yds sedmertatinand—tensof milo of ersater-gelogic pit a it IR (areen arrows). Moder agricultur's voracious need of fertlizers has tripled thera of consumption ofthe phosphorus on land orange a. = Lepedes od ‘ows, but a combination of tactics (boxes) could mitigate the problem. oes through waste treat 4, SEEK NEW SOURCES ientplants and usualy ends INTEGRATE FARMING REDUCE EROSION raat cycling un waste coud nin wate eng er mpc aie ch os fet) to the ond rch cul lea help farmers tse ertzermoreethcenty Precareas. Thus, the findings to date are not enough to allay concerns about fucure supply. Society should therefore face the reality of an impending phosphorus crisis and begin to make a serious effort at conservation. Rock Steady The standard approaches to conservation apply to phosphorus as well reduce, recycle and reuse. ‘We can reduce fertilizer usage through more efficient agricultural practices suchas terracing and no-till farming to diminish erosion [see *No-Til: The Quiet Revolution,” by David R. Higgins and John P. Reganold; Scieyri#c AMERICAN, July 2008]. The inedible biomass harvested with cops, such as stalks and stems, should be returned tothe sol with is phospho: 8 should animal waste (including bones) from meat and dairy production, less than half of which is ow used as fertilizer ‘We will also have o treat our wastewater t0 recover phosphorus from sold waste. This task is difficule because residual biosolids are con taminated with many pollutants, especially heavy metals such a lead and cadmium, which teach from old pipes. Making agriculture sus tainable over the long term begins with renew ing ous efforts to phase out toxic metals from cour plumbing. Half the phosphorus we excrete isin our urine, from which it would be relatively easy to recover. And separating solid and liquid human waste—which can be done in treatment plants or at the source, using specialized toilets— would have an added advantage. Urine is also rich nitrogen, so recycling it could offset some of the nitrogen thats currently extracted from the atmosphere, t great cost in energy Meanwhile new discoveries are likely just to forestall the depletion of reserves, not to prevent it. For traly sustainable agriculture, the delay would have to be indefinite. Such an achieve ‘ment would be posible only with a world pop- ulation small enough tobe fed using natural and mostly untreated minerals that are low-grade sources of phosphorus. As with other resources, the ultimate question is how many humans the earth can really sustain ‘We are running out of phosphorus deposits that are relatively easily and cheaply exploit able. is possible that the optimists are correct about the relative ease of obtaining new sourc- E es and that shortages can be averted. But given the stakes, we should not leave our future to chance, . PHOSPHORUS FACTS The average adult needs about one gram of phosphorus a dy. Tosustain one person's balanced et, modern agrcltre requires mining 2.5 ilograms of phosphate rocks yer. Atleast as much phosphorus ends up washed away by eoson as ends ‘pin food. the ilinosiver basin, for example about 12 kilograms of ols eroded foreach logram of «com produced. A phosphorusueled outburst plant growth 40 milion years ago took enough carbon dioxide fom the atmosphere to cause a perod ‘of labalcoling. The extra phospho tuscame rom the upto the Himalayan Tibetan plateau ‘> MORE TO EXPLORE Phosphorus inthe Environment: Natural Flows and Human Interference. Vaclav Sin ‘Anna Review of Energy and the Environment Vol 25, pages 53-88; November 2000, Eutrophication of Lakes Cannot ‘Be Controlled by Reducing Nite gen input Results of a 37-Year Whole-Ecosystem Experiment. David W. Schindler et al. Proceed ings of the National Academy of Séences USA, Vo. 15, No. 32, pages 11254-11258; August 12,2008. Phosphate Rock Statistics and Information. US. Geological Survey ‘valle at http:iminerals.usgs ‘govimineras/pubsicommodity ‘Phosphate rock sciewriric american 47