Pronstico de ventas por el mtodo de regresin lineal

AO
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sumas 19,995

VENTAS (en

9,000

18,004,900

39,980,085

9,300,000

( x ) ( x )

94,000
99498.7437

m=

regresin
387.27
501.21
615.15
729.09
843.03
956.97
1,070.91
1,184.85
1,298.79
1,412.73
1,526.67

n ( xy ) ( x )( y )
n

m=

XY
798,000
1,197,600
998,500
1,398,600
1,799,100
1,600,000
2,401,200
2,602,600
2,203,300
3,006,000

Y2
160,000
360,000
250,000
490,000
810,000
640,000
1,440,000
1,690,000
1,210,000
2,250,000

miles) Y
400
600
500
700
900
800
1200
1300
1100
1500

r=

r=

Recta de
X2
3,980,025
3,984,016
3,988,009
3,992,004
3,996,001
4,000,000
4,004,001
4,008,004
4,012,009
4,016,016

y)

0.9447

0.9447

n ( xy) x y
n

(x ) ( x)

94,000
825

a =

113.94

113.94

y m x
n

a= - 2,269,218
10
Pronstico para 2005:
y=
x=
y=
y=

226,921.82

a+mx
2005
1,526.67 miles de pesos
1,526,666.67 Unidades

1526.67

Pronstico de Ventas

2000
Venta

1500
1000
500
0

1995

VENTAS (en miles) Y

Recta de regresin

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Aos

practica 4.xls

2002

2003

2004

2005