Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
16
Series: X
Sample 1949:01 1960:12
Observations 144
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
280.2986
265.5000
622.0000
104.0000
119.9663
0.577068
2.606228
Jarque-Bera
Probability
8.922525
0.011548
600
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
LOGX
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
AC
0.954
0.899
0.851
0.808
0.779
0.756
0.738
0.727
0.734
0.744
0.758
0.762
0.717
PAC
0.954
-0.118
0.054
0.024
0.116
0.044
0.038
0.100
0.204
0.064
0.106
-0.042
-0.485
Q-Stat
133.72
253.36
361.29
459.44
551.20
638.37
721.86
803.60
887.42
974.33
1065.2
1157.6
1240.0
Prob
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
Prob.*
0.0000
Prob.
0.9753
0.0001
-8.14E-06
0.045897
-3.426269
-3.382153
16.96943
0.000068
Coefficient
-0.341224
Std. Error
0.082514
t-Statistic
-4.135324
Prob.
0.0001
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
ERROR
Partial Correlation
AC
PAC
.|.
|
1 -0.007 -0.007
*|.
|
2 -0.075 -0.075
**|.
|
3 -0.204 -0.206
.|.
|
4 -0.040 -0.054
.|.
|
5 0.080 0.049
.|.
|
6 0.037 -0.009
*|.
|
7 -0.061 -0.073
.|*
|
8 0.052 0.078
.|** |
9 0.201 0.222
.|.
|
10 -0.017 -0.026
*|.
|
11 -0.113 -0.081
***|.
|
12 -0.402 -0.350
Q-Stat
0.0063
0.7549
6.3815
6.5973
7.4814
7.6712
8.1888
8.5649
14.281
14.322
16.155
39.669
Prob
0.937
0.686
0.094
0.159
0.187
0.263
0.316
0.380
0.113
0.159
0.135
0.000
Los dos coeficientes son significativos y los valores son menores a los
obtenidos mediante el AR(1). Ahora, debemos analizar los residuos:
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
ERROR
Partial Correlation
.|.
|
.|.
|
*|.
|
*|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
*|.
|
.|.
|
.|*
|
*|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|*
|
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
AC
0.030
0.021
-0.124
-0.147
0.045
0.060
-0.075
-0.043
0.098
-0.077
0.030
0.006
0.037
PAC
0.030
0.020
-0.126
-0.143
0.060
0.052
-0.122
-0.054
0.146
-0.096
-0.031
0.045
0.076
Q-Stat
0.1204
0.1804
2.2844
5.2684
5.5496
6.0438
6.8403
7.1001
8.4610
9.3103
9.4385
9.4432
9.6473
Prob
0.729
0.914
0.516
0.261
0.353
0.418
0.446
0.526
0.488
0.503
0.581
0.665
0.722
1952
1954
1956
YF
1958
1960