Está en la página 1de 10



'(3$57$0(172'((67$'67,&$(,2
*5$'2(1&,(1&,$6$0%,(17$/(6



(67$'67,&$


%ORTXH&iOFXORGHSUREDELOLGDGHV

7HPD9DULDEOHVDOHDWRULDV\PRGHORVGHSUREDELOLGDG


 9DULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVGLVFUHWDV\FRQWLQXDV
 )XQFLRQHV\FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDVRFLDGDVDXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD
 0RGHORVGHSUREDELOLGDGPiVXVXDOHVGHYDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVGLVFUHWDV\FRQWLQXDV



 9DULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVGLVFUHWDV\FRQWLQXDV




&RQFHSWRGHYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD

'H IRUPD VLPLODU D ODV YDULDEOHV HVWDGtVWLFDV GHO EORTXH GH HVWDGtVWLFD GHVFULSWLYD HQ HO
HVWXGLR GH H[SHULPHQWRV DOHDWRULRV UHVXOWD QHFHVDULR PDQHMDU IXQFLRQHV GHILQLGDV VREUH HO
XQLYHUVRRHVSDFLRPXHVWUDOGHWRGRVORVUHVXOWDGRVSRVLEOHVGHOH[SHULPHQWRTXHQRVSURSRUFLRQH
YDORUHV UHDOHV DVRFLDGRV D GLFKRV UHVXOWDGRV D ODV FXDOHV VH OHV OODPD YDULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV (V
GHFLUXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDQRHVRWUDFRVDTXHXQDIXQFLyQUHDOTXHDFDGDSRVLEOHUHDOL]DFLyQGH
XQH[SHULPHQWRDOHDWRULROHDVRFLDXQQ~PHURUHDOGHOFRQMXQWRGHORVQ~PHURVUHDOHV

'HILQLFLyQ'DGRHOHVSDFLRGHSUREDELOLGDG A3 ODIXQFLyQ;HVXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD
VLSDUDFDGDVXEFRQMXQWR% VHFXPSOH; % A

2EVHUYDU TXH OD FRQGLFLyQ SDUD TXH FXDOTXLHU IXQFLyQ UHDO GHILQLGD VREUH HO XQLYHUVR VHD
XQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDVyORHVSDUDJDUDQWL]DUTXHSDUDFXDOTXLHUVXEFRQMXQWRGHYDORUHVUHDOHVHO
FRQMXQWRGHHOHPHQWRVGHOXQLYHUVRHQORVTXHODYDULDEOHSURSRUFLRQDGLFKRVYDORUHVUHDOHVHVXQ
VXFHVRVREUHHOTXHHVWiGHILQLGDODSUREDELOLGDG VXFHVRGHOiOJHEUDGHVXFHVRV 

(OFRQMXQWRGHVXFHVRVSRVLEOHVDVRFLDGRVDOHVSDFLRGHSUREDELOLGDGHVHOGRPLQLRGHOD
YDULDEOHDOHDWRULD;\HOFRQMXQWRGHYDORUHVGHODYDULDEOHHVHOUDQJRGHGLFKDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD

(MHPSOR 6L ODQ]DPRVXQD PRQHGD DO DLUH \ GHILQLPRV ODYDULDEOH DOHDWRULD ; Q~PHUR GH FDUDV
REWHQLGDVDOWLUDUGRVYHFHVXQDPRQHGDDODLUHODYDULDEOH;WUDQVIRUPDHOHVSDFLRPXHVWUDO 
^ FF  F  F   `HQHOFRQMXQWR6 ^`

(QHVWHFDVRODDQWLLPDJHQGHOLQWHUYDOR> VHUiHOVXFHVR^  `RODGHOLQWHUYDOR>@
VHUi ^ FF  F  F ` (YLGHQWHPHQWH SDUD XQ LQWHUYDOR TXH QR FRQWHQJD QLQJ~QYDORU GH ; SRU
HMHPSORHOLQWHUYDOR>@HOVXFHVR;>@ GDGRTXHHVLPSRVLEOHTXHHQGRVODQ]DPLHQWRVVH
REWHQJDHQWUHyFDUDV

 )XQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD

(QJHQHUDOODGHILQLFLyQGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDSHUPLWHFRQVWUXLUXQDPHGLGDDVRFLDGDD
VXV YDORUHV HQ HO FRQMXQWR GH ORV Q~PHURV UHDOHV D WUDYpV GH VXV VXFHVRV DVRFLDGRV OODPDGD
IXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ\GHILQLGDFRPRVLJXH


'HILQLFLyQ
Q 6HD ; XQ
QD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD VVREUH HO HVS
SDFLR GH SUUREDELOLGDG A3  ;
;  OD
D
IXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
QGH;HVXQDIXQFLyQ GHILQLGDHQ
QODUHFWDUHD
DOFRQYDORUUHVHQ>@WDOTXH
)
>@
  [) [ 3 ;[ 
3
GRQGH ;[ ; [[@UHSUHVHQWDDOVXFHV RGHAIRUP
PDGRSRUOR
RVHOHPHQWRRVGHDOR
RVTXH;OH
H
DVRFLDXQYYDORUPHQRURLJXDOD[
[

/DVV SURSLHGDG
GHV PiV LP
PSRUWDQWHV G
GH OD IXQFLyQ GH GLVWUULEXFLyQ VH GHULYDQ GH
H VX SURSLD
D
GHILQLFLyQFFRPRPHGLG
GDGHSURED
DELOLGDGGH VXFHVRV
L  8QDIXQFLy
yQGHGLVWULE
EXFLyQHVQR
RGHFUHFLHQ
QWH
LL  8QDIXQFLy
yQGHGLVWULE
EXFLyQHVFR
RQWLQXDSRUODGHUHFKD
LLL 


(MHUFLFLR &RQVLGHUDQGR HO HMHP
PSOR DQWHULR
RU VREUH HO ODQ]DPLHQ
QWR GH XQD PRQHGD \ OD YDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULD ; Q~PHUR GH FDUDV REWHQLGDV
R
D O WLUDU GRV YHFHV
Y
XQD PRQHGD DO DLUH (VWD
DEOHFHU XQD
D
PHGLGD GH
H SUREDELOLG
GDG DGHFXD
DGD DO H[SH
HULPHQWR DOH
HDWRULR \ FD
DOFXODU OD IXXQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ
G
Q
DVRFLDGDD
D;

2EVVHUYDU TXH HQ JHQHUD
DO OD IXQFLy
yQ GH GLVWULE
EXFLyQ QR HV
H VLHPSUH FRQWLQXD FRPR
F
HQ HOO
FDVR GHO HMHUFLFLR DQWHULRU
D
SH
HUPLWLHQGR FODVLILFDU ODV YDULDEOH
HV DOHDWRULDDV VHJ~Q HO WLSR GH
H
PRQRWRQtD
D \ HO FRQMXQWR GH SXQ
QWRV GH GLVFFRQWLQXLGDG GH VX IXQF
FLyQ GH GLVWWULEXFLyQ R
R HO WLSR GHOO
UDQJRGHG
GLFKDYDULDE
EOH

$Vtt WHQLHQGR HQ FXHQWD HO UDQJR G
GH XQD YDULD
DEOH DOHDWRULD VH GLFHH TXH HV XQD YDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULDG
GLVFUHWDVLVXUDQJRHVWWiGHILQLGR SRUXQFRQMMXQWRILQLWRR
RQXPHUDEOOHGHYDORUH
HVGLVWLQWRV
6LQHPEDUUJRVLODYD
DULDEOHDOHDWRULDSXHGH
HWRPDUWRGRVORVYDORUHVGHXQLLQWHUYDORVH
HPLUUHFWDR
R
WRGDODUHFFWDUHDOVHG
GLUiTXHODY
YDULDEOHDOH
HDWRULDHVFR
RQWLQXD

 9DUULDEOHVDOHD
DWRULDVGLVF
FUHWDV

8Q HMHPSOR GH
H YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD
D
GLLVFUHWD HV HO
H HMHPSOR VREUH HO Q~~PHUR GH FDUDV
F
HQ HOO
ODQ]DPLHQWWR GH XQD PRQHGD GRV YHFHV GRQGH VH REVHUYD TX
XH HO UDQJRR ILQLWR GH OD YDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULD FFRLQFLGH FRQ
Q ORV SXQWR
RV GH GLVFR
RQWLQXLGDG GH
G OD GLVWULE
EXFLyQ \ HVVWD HV FRQV
VWDQWH HQWUH
H
HOORV9HDP
PRVRWURHMH
HPSOR

(MHPSOR3
3DUDDQDOL]]DUODIHUWLOLG
GDGGHXQDGHWHUPLQDG
GDUD]DGH SHUURVVH SODQWHDOD UHDOL]DFLyQ
Q
GH XQ H[SHULPHQWR FR
RQVLVWHQWH HQ HO HVWXG
GLR GH XQD JUDQ FDQWLG
GDG GH FDP
PDGDV GHILQLHQGR XQD
D
YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD TXH
H D FDGD FD
DPDGD VH O H DVLJQD HO Q~PHUR GH FUtDV GH OD PLVPD $VXPLHQGR
R
TXH DK XQ
Q Q~PHUR PtQLPR
P
GH FUtDV GH FFDGD FDPDG
GD  \ XQ Q~PHUR P
Pi[LPR  OD YDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULDVHUiGHWLSRGLVFUHWRFR
RQUDQJR^

`

(QJHQHUDOXQ
QDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDGL VFUHWDHVWDUiFDUDFWHUL]DGDSULQFLLSDOPHQWHS
SRUODIRUPD
D
GHVXIXQFFLyQGHGLVWUULEXFLyQVLH
HQGRXQDIX
XQFLyQFUHFLHQWHHQWUH\GHWLSSRHVFDORQD
DGDFRPROD
D
JUiILFDVLJX
XLHQWH


DXQTXHHQ
QODSUiFWLFD
DHVPiVK
KDELWXDOHOX
XVRGHVXIX
XQFLyQSXQWXDOGHSUREEDELOLGDGR IXQFLyQGH
H
PDVDGHS
SUREDELOLGDGFX\DGHILQ
QLFLyQ\SURS
SLHGDGHVYH
HUHPRVSRV
VWHULRUPHQWHH

 9DUULDEOHVDOHD
DWRULDVFRQ
QWLQXDV

(MHPSOR6
6XSRQJDPR
RVTXHODJ
JHUHQFLDGHXQKRVSLWD
DOTXLHUHHVWXGLDUHOWLHHPSRGHUHVSXHVWDHQ
Q
VXVHUYLFLR
RGHXUJHQFFLDVGHPDQHUDTXHFFDGDYH]TX
XHXQSDFLH
HQWHLQJUHVDDHQGLFKRV
VHUYLFLRVH
H
SRQHHQP
PDUFKDXQG
GLVSRVLWLYRT
TXHFRQWDE
ELOL]DHOWLHP
PSRTXHGLF
FKRSDFLHQWWHWDUGDHQ DEDQGRQDUU
HVWHVHUYLFFLRELHQSR
RUTXHVHOH GDHODOWD RELHQSRUT
TXHHVLQJUUHVDGRHQHHOKRVSLWDO /DYDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULD T
TXH FRQWDE
ELOL]D GLFKR WLHPSR GH UHVSXHVWD VREUH
V
HO XQ
QLYHUVR GH SSRVLEOHV SD
DFLHQWHV HVV
FRQWLQXD S
SXHV WRPDUUi YDORUHV GHQWUR GH XQ LQWHUYDOR
R R DO PHQ
QRV HQ HO FFRQMXQWR GH
H ORV UHDOHVV
SRVLWLYRV

(Q HVWHFDVR ODIXQFLyQ GHGLVWULEX FLyQDVRFLD
DGDDHVWD YDULDEOHDOHHDWRULDHVF
FRQWLQXDHQ
Q
WRGDODUHFFWDUHDO QRWWLHQHSXQWRVGHGLVFRQ
QWLQXLGDG 

(Q JHQHUDO XQD
X
YDULDEOH
H DOHDWRULD FRQWLQXD HVWDUi FDUD
DFWHUL]DGD SULQFLSDOPH
HQWH SRU OD
D
FRQWLQXLGDG
 VLHQGR XQ
G GH VX IX
XQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ
G
QD IXQFLyQ FUHFLHQWH HHQWUH  \  FRPR OD
D
JUiILFD

(Q JHQHUDOVL GHQRWDPRV


VSRU^[[Q`ORVYDORUHVTXHWR
RPDODYDULDDEOHDOHDWRUULDGLVFUHWD
OD SUREDELOLGDG DVRFLDGD D FDGD XQR GH H
HOORV VHUi 3 ; [L SL SDUD L 
Q YHULILFi
iQGRVH ODVV
VLJXLHQWHVSURSLHGDGH
HV

  SLL Q

 

\ODIXQFLyQSXQWXDOG
GHSUREDELOLG
GDGRIXQFL yQGHPDVD
DGHSUREDE
ELOLGDGVHGGHILQHHQWR
RGDODUHFWD
D
UHDOFRPRH[WHQVLyQG
GHODSUREDE
ELOLGDGGHOUUDQJRGH;VLHQGRQXODIXHUDGHVVXUDQJR
S
>@
 [S [ 3 ; [ 
VLHQGRS [ VL[5D
DQJR ; S [
[ SLVL[ [L 

 )XQ
QFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
Q

$XQ
QTXH OD IX
XQFLyQ SXQWXDO GH SUUREDELOLGDG GH XQD YDULDEOH
Y
DO HDWRULD GLV
VFUHWD HVWi
i
GHWHUPLQDG
GDSRUVXIX
XQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
[ ) [ ) [ 
S [[ 3 ; [ 3 ;[ 3 ;
3

WDPELpQ S
SXHGH VHU FRQVWUXLGD
F
OD IXQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ D SD
DUWLU GH XQDD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GH
H
SUREDELOLGD
DG

'HILQLFLyQ
Q 6HD ; XQD YDULD
DEOH DOHDWR
RULD GLVFUHWWD FRQ IXQ
QFLyQ GH SUREDELOLGD
DG SXQWXDO
S [L 3 ; [L SLODIXQ
QFLyQGHGLV
VWULEXFLyQG
GH;SDUDFD
DGD[HV
V
 



\ DO LJXDO TXH ODV YD
DULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV GLVFFUHWDV HQ OD
O SUiFWLFD HV KDELWXDOO XWLOL]DU OD IXQFLyQ GH
H
GHQVLGDG FFRUUHVSRQGLHQWH D XQD
D IXQFLyQ G H GLVWULEXFLyQ FX\D GHILQLFLyQ \ SURSLHGDGH
HV YHUHPRVV
SRVWHULRUP
PHQWH



 )XQF
FLRQHV\F
FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVD
DVRFLDGDVDXQDY
YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD
D



)XQ
QFLRQHV\F
FDUDFWHUtVWWLFDVGHXQ
QDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDG
GLVFUHWD

 )XQ
QFLyQSXQWWXDOGHSUREDELOLGDG

7HQ
QLHQGRHQFXHQWDTXHX
XQDYDULDEOH
HDOHDWRULDGLVFUHWDWLHQHXQUDQJRRILQLWRRQX
XPHUDEOHD
D
D GLVFUHWD OH FRUUHVS
FDGD YDORU TXH WRPH
H OD YDULDE
EOH DOHDWRULD
SRQGH XQD SUREDELOLGD
DG TXH VH
H
GHWHUPLQDFRPRODPD
DVDGHSURE
EDELOLGDGDVVRFLDGDDVX
XGRPLQLRRSUHLPDJHQQ

3RUUHMHPSORH
HQHOODQ]DP
PLHQWRFRQVVHFXWLYRGHGRVGDGRVDOYDORUGGHODYDULDE
EOHDOHDWRULD
D
TXHVHGHIILQHFRPROD
DVXPDGHS
SXQWRVREWH
HQLGRVOHFR
RUUHVSRQGH
HFRPRSUHLPDJHQHOF
FRQMXQWRGH
H
UHVXOWDGRV GHO H[SHULLPHQWR ^     
   ` GH PDQHUUD TXH FRP
PR HO Q~PH
HUR WRWDO GH
H
SRVLEOHVUH
HVXOWDGRVH
HVODSUR
REDELOLGDGD
DVRFLDGDDOYDORUVH
HUi (VHYLGH
HQWHTXHVH
H
GHEH FXPSOLU TXH OD VXPD GH ODV
O
SUREDELLOLGDGHV DVRFLDGDV D WRGRV ORV YYDORUHV GH OD YDULDEOH
H
DOHDWRULDGHEHVHULJX
XDODGDGR
RTXHVXGR
RPLQLRHVHOOVXFHVRVHJXUR


/DVVSURSLHGDGHVPiVLPS
SRUWDQWHVGH
HODIXQFLyQ
QGHGLVWULEXFLyQVRQODVVVLJXLHQWHV
V
L  /DIXQFLy
yQGHGLVWULEXFLyQHVQ
QRGHFUHFLH
HQWHVLHQGR
RFRQVWDQWHHQHOLQWHULRUGHFDGD
D
GRVSXQWWRVFRQVHFX
XWLYRVGHOUD
DQJR
LL  /RV SXQ
QWRV GH GLVF
FRQWLQXLGDG
G GH ) VH SURGXFHQ
S
HQ
H ORV YDORUUHV [L GHO UDQJR GH OD
D
YDULDEOHVLHQGRHOV
VDOWRTXHVH
HSURGXFHS
SL ) [L ) [L 

LLL 
LYY 


(MHUFLFLR 2EWHQHU OD
D IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO
S
GH SUREDELOLGD
DG FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH DD OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD
D
GLVFUHWD; Q~PHURG
GHFDUDVREWWHQLGDVDOWL UDUGRVYHF
FHVXQDPRQ
QHGDDODLUHH

 (VS
SHUDQ]DPD
DWHPiWLFD0HGLD\YD
DULDQ]D

DYH]FRQRFFLGDVODVIXQFLRQHVTX HFDUDFWHUL]
]DQDXQDY
YDULDEOHDOHDDWRULDGHWLS
SRGLVFUHWR
8QD
HQ HVWH DS
SDUWDGR HVWWXGLDUHPRV FyPR FDOFFXODU XQRV FXDQWRV SD
DUiPHWURV TXH VLQWHWLFHQ FLHUWDVV
FDUDFWHUtVWWLFDV LQWHUHVVDQWHV GH HVWDV YDULD
DEOHV DOHDWR
RULDV (O FR
RQFHSWR PiiV LPSRUWDQ
QWH TXH VH
H
HPSOHDFRQHVWHSURS
SyVLWRHVHOGHHVSHUDQ
Q]DPDWHPiWLFD

'DG
GD XQD YDUULDEOH DOHDWR
RULD GLVFUHWWD ; OD HVS
SHUDQ]D PD
DWHPiWLFD GGH ; YD D VHU
V HO YDORUU
PHGLR GH ORV YDORUHVV GH OD YDULLDEOH FXDQG
GR HVWRV VH
H KDQ SRQG
GHUDGR SRU OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GH
H
SUREDELOLGD
DG'HQRWDUUHPRVPHGLLDQWH( ; OD
DHVSHUDQ]
]DPDWHPiWLLFDGH;\FFX\DH[SUHV
VLyQYHQGUi
i
GDGDSRU




HQ ORV FDVVRV HQ TXH WDO Q~PHUR
R H[LVWD$T
TXt FDEH RE
EVHUYDU OD VLPLOLWXG
V
HQWWUH HVWH FRQFHSWR \ HOO
FRQFHSWRG
GHPHGLDGH
HVFULSWLYDSD
DUDXQFRQM XQWRGHGDWWRVDWUDYpV
VGHVXVIUHFFXHQFLDVUH
HODWLYDV


/D HVSHUDQ]D PDWHPiWLFD GH XQD YDULDEOH HV OR TXH VH FRQRFH FRP~QPHQWH FRPR OD
PHGLDGHODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDRYDORUHVSHUDGRGH;\TXHVHUHSUHVHQWDSRU 

$GHPiV VL J ;  HV XQD WUDQVIRUPDFLyQ GH XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD GLVFUHWD ; HQWRQFHV
7 J ;  HV XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD \ VX HVSHUDQ]D PDWHPiWLFD SXHGH FDOFXODUVH D WUDYpV GH OD
IXQFLyQSXQWXDOGHSUREDELOLGDGGHODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD;


9HDPRV DOJXQDV GH ODV SURSLHGDGHV PiV LPSRUWDQWHV GH OD HVSHUDQ]D PDWHPiWLFD SDUD
YDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVGLVFUHWDV

3URSLHGDGHV
L  8QDFRQVWDQWHNHVXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDGLVFUHWDVLHQGR( N N
LL  \ 
LLL  6L;H<VRQGRVYDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVGLVFUHWDVHQWRQFHV( ;< ( ; ( < 
LY  6L;H<VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV( ;< ( ; ( < 

&RPR HQ OD HVWDGtVWLFD GHVFULSWLYD ODV WUDQVIRUPDFLRQHV GDGDV SRU ODV SRWHQFLDV GH XQD
YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD GLVFUHWD UHFLEHQ HVSHFLDO DWHQFLyQ DVt FRPR ODV SRWHQFLDV GH OD YDULDEOH
FHQWUDGD GDGR TXH VRQ XQD H[WHQVLyQ GH VX YDORU HVSHUDGR R YDORU PHGLR \ WDPELpQ SHUPLWHQ
REWHQHURWUDVPHGLGDVGHLQWHUpVGHODYDULDEOHFRPRVXGHVYLDFLyQWtSLFDRYDULDQ]D

(QJHQHUDOOODPDUHPRVPRPHQWRRUGLQDULRGHRUGHQUGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD;DOYDORU
PHGLR GH X
GDGDSRU

 \ OR GHQRWDUHPRV SRU P r  HV GHFLU P r

E X r  \ HQ HVWH FDVR GLVFUHWR YLHQH

1yWHVHTXHHOPRPHQWRRUGLQDULRGHRUGHQ HVODPHGLDRHVSHUDQ]DPDWHPiWLFD
GHODYDULDEOH

/RVPRPHQWRVFHQWUDOHVGHRUGHQUGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDGLVFUHWDVHGHILQHQFRPRHO
YDORUPHGLRGH HVGHFLU



(QSDUWLFXODUHOPRPHQWRFHQWUDGRGHRUGHQSURSRUFLRQDHOYDORUPHGLRRHVSHUDGRGH
ODVGHVYLDFLRQHVDOFXDGUDGRHQWHXQDYDULDEOH\VXPHGLDOODPDGRYDULDQ]DGH;


\FX\DUDt]FXDGUDGDSRVLWLYDUHFLEHHOQRPEUHGHGHVYLDFLyQWtSLFDRHVWiQGDU


3URSLHGDGHV
L  9DU N 
LL  9DU ;N 9DU ; \9DU N; N9DU ; 
LLL  
LY  6L;H<VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV9DU ;< 9DU ; 9DU < 

 &DPELRGHYDULDEOHGHWLSRGLVFUHWR

6HD;XQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDGLVFUHWDFRQIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ) [ \IXQFLyQSXQWXDOGH
SUREDELOLGDG S [ 3 ; [  6L HQ XQ H[SHULPHQWR DOHDWRULR VH GHVHD DQDOL]DU XQD FLHUWD

WUDQVIRUPD
DFLyQ GH ;
; = J ;  HQWRQFHV UHVXOWD FRQ
QYHQLHQWH GLVSRQHU GGH ODV IXQF
FLRQHV TXH
H
FDUDFWHUL]D
DQDHVWDQX
XHYDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD
DTXHWDPELLpQVHUiGHWLSRGLVFUHWWR

(QUHDOLGDGHOOSURFHVRFR
RQVLVWHHQH
HVWDEOHFHUOODPHGLGDG
GHSUREDELOLGGDGVREUHORVVXFHVRVV
GHOiOJHEUD
DGHWHUPLQD
DGRVSRUODYDULDEOHDOH
HDWRULD;VR
REUHHOVXEF
FRQMXQWRGHHQ~PHURVUUHDOHVGHOD
D
WUDQVIRUPD
DFLyQ LQYHUVVD \D TXH ;  \ J  SRU OR TX
XH = J ;   $GH
HPiV SDUD
D


FXDOTXLHU VVXEFRQMXQWR
R % $ J %  \\ GDGR TXH
H ; HV XQD YDULDEOH DOOHDWRULD ; $ A HVV
GHFLU= %
% ; J % ; $ A
A\SRUWD
DQWR= J ; HVXQDYD
DULDEOHDOHDDWRULDVLHQG
GRVXUDQJR
R
ILQLWRRQXP
PHUDEOHSRUUVHUXQDWUD
DQVIRUPDFLy
yQVREUHHOUDQJRGH;
;TXHHVILQLLWRRQXPHUDEOH

(QSDUWLFXODUG
GDGRXQSXQWR]MGHOUD
DQJRGH= J ; VXSUR
J
REDELOLGDGSSXQWXDOYLHQHGDGDSRU

GRODQRWDFLy
yQDEUHYLDG
GD= J ; S
SDUDWRGR]
\HQJHQHUUDOXWLOL]DQG


2EVVHUYDU TXH REWHQLHQGR
R OD IXQFLyQ
Q SXQWXDO GH SUREDELOLG
GDG GH OD YYDULDEOH WUDQVIRUPDGD
HVWDPRVREWHQLHQGRVVXIXQFLyQG
GHGLVWULEXF LyQDOXWLOL]D
DUODUHODFLyQHQWUHDPEEDV

(MHPSOR 6HD ; XQD
D YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD G
GLVFUHWD TXH
H WRPD YDORUHV ^` FRQ SUREDELOLGDGHVV
^
` UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 6XSRQJDPR
6
RV OD WUDQVIIRUPDFLyQ = ; ;  HHQWRQFHV OR
RV SRVLEOHVV
YDORUHVGH=VRQ^
`\VXIXQFLLyQSXQWXDO GHSUREDELOLGDGGH=S= ] 3 = ] VHUi

VLHQGR SDUD
DWRGR]

 )XQ
QFLRQHV\F
FDUDFWHUtVWWLFDVGHXQ
QDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDF
FRQWLQXD

 )XQ
QFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
Q

(Q HO FDVR GH
H XQD YDULDE
EOH DOHDWRUL D FRQWLQXD ; HV GHFLU VX UDQJRR GH YDORUH
HV FXEUH XQ
Q
LQWHUYDORVVHPLUUHFWDR
RWRGDODUHF
FWDUHDOODIIXQFLyQGHG
GLVWULEXFLyQ
QHVFRQWLQXXD\VHGHILQ
QHFRPRHQ
Q
HOFDVRJHQHUDOSDUDFDGD[

) [ 3
3 ;[ 3 ;
[@ 

VLHQGRXQD
DIXQFLyQFR
RQODVVLJXLH
HQWHVFDUDFFWHUtVWLFDV
L  8QDIXQFLy
yQGHGLVWULE
EXFLyQHVQR
RGHFUHFLHQ
QWH
LL  8QDIXQFLy
yQGHGLVWULE
EXFLyQHVFR
RQWLQXD

LLL 
LY 


1RREVWDQWHH
HQHOFDVRF
FRQWLQXRHVVKDELWXDOXWWLOL]DUODIXQFLyQGHGHQQVLGDGDVRF
FLDGDDXQD
D
GLVWULEXFLyQ
QFRPRKHUUUDPLHQWD~
~WLOHQODDS
SOLFDFLyQSUi
iFWLFDGHIR
RUPDVLPLODDUDODIXQFLyQSXQWXDOO
GHSUREDELLOLGDGGHOFD
DVRGLVFUHWR
R

 )XQ
QFLyQGHGHQVLGDG

6LODIXQFLyQG
GHGLVWULEXFLLyQ) [ GH XQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDFRQWLQXD;
;HVGHULYDE
EOHVHGLFH
H
TXH;HVD
DEVROXWDPH
HQWHFRQWLQX
XD\HQWDO FDVRDOD GHULYDGDGHODIXQFLyQQGHGLVWULE
EXFLyQVHOH
H
OODPDIXQFLyQGHGHQVVLGDGI )TXH SDUDFDGD[

f( x)

dF(
d x)

dx


$VttDPEDVIXQFLRQHVVRQFDUDFWHUtVVWLFDVGHXQ
QDYDULDEOH DOHDWRULDFFRQWLQXDSX
XHVQRVyOR
R
OD IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG VH REWLH
HQH D SDUWLLU GH OD GLV
VWULEXFLyQ OD IXQFLyQ GGH GLVWULEXF
FLyQ SXHGH
H
REWHQHUVHDSDUWLUGHXQDIXQFLyQ
QGHGHQVLG DG
x

F( x )

f ( t ).dt

P
P( X d x )

f

GH GRQGH VH GHGXFH


HQ ODV SURSLHGDGHV E
EiVLFDV GH XQD IXQFLyQ H GHQVVLGDG VLPLODUHV D ODVV
SURSLHGDGH
HVGHXQDIX
XQFLyQGHS
SUREDELOLGDG
GSXQWXDO 
L  I [ 
LL  


HOFiOFXORGHODSUREDE
ELOLGDGGHFX
XDOTXLHULQWH
HUYDORGHYD
DORUHVGHODDYDULDEOHD
DOHDWRULD\D
D
DVtFRPRH
TXH

DSUREDELOLG
GDGGHXQD YDULDEOHDOH
HDWRULDHVWi
iGHWHUPLQD
DGDSRUHOiiUHDGHOLPLWWDGDSRUVX
X
HVGHFLUOD
IXQFLyQGH
HGHQVLGDG YpDVHODV
VLJXLHQWHJUi
iILFD LQWHUUSUHWiQGRVH
HODIXQFLyQQGHGLVWULEX
XFLyQHQXQ
Q
SXQWRFRPRHOiUHDHQ
QFHUUDGDSR
RUODGHQVLG
GDGSRUGHEDMRGHHVHSXQWR


3URSLHGDGHV
L  6HDNXQDFRQVWDQWH \ 
LL  6L;H<VRQGRVYDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVFRQWLQXDVHQWRQFHV( ;< ( ; ( < 
LLL  6L;H<VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV( ;< ( ; ( < 

(Q HVWH FDVR ORV PRPHQWRV RUGLQDULRV GH RUGHQ U GH XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD FRQWLQXD ;
HVWiGHILQLGRSRU

VLHQGRORVFDVRVSDUWLFXODUHVGHRUGHQ\ORVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDODVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVPiVUHOHYDQWHV
GHXQDYDULDEOHVXPHGLD\VXYDULDQ]D
 

$VLPLVPRORVPRPHQWRVFHQWUDOHVGHRUGHQUGH;VHGHILQHQFRPRORVPRPHQWRVGH
RUGHQUGHODGHVYLDFLyQGHODYDULDEOHUHVSHFWRGHVXPHGLD HVGHFLU


\ HQ SDUWLFXODU HO PRPHQWR FHQWUDGR GH RUGHQ  GH XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD FRQWLQXD HV HO YDORU
SURPHGLRGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVDOFXDGUDGRFRQUHVSHFWRDVXPHGLDVHGHQRPLQDYDULDQ]D



SHUDQ]DPD
DWHPiWLFD0HGLD\YD
DULDQ]D
 (VS

$OLJXDOTXHHQ
QHOFDVRGLVFUHWRVHL QWURGXFHHOOFRQFHSWRG
GHHVSHUDQ]]DPDWHPi
iWLFDGHXQD
D
YDULDEOH DOOHDWRULD FRQ
QWLQXD WDPELpQ OODPDG
GR YDORU HV
VSHUDGR R PHGLD GH OOD YDULDEOH 'DGD XQD
D
YDULDEOH DOOHDWRULD FRQ
QWLQXD ; OD
D HVSHUDQ]]D PDWHPiWWLFD GH ; VH
V REWLHQH PHGLDQWH OD VLJXLHQWH
H
H[SUHVLyQ


HSUHVHQWDH
HOYDORUSURPHGLRGHODDYDULDEOHD
DOSRQGHUDUU
HQORVFDVVRVHQTXH WDOQ~PHUR H[LVWD\UH
VXVYDORUHVVSRUVXIXQ
QFLyQGHGHQVLGDG 

(YLGHQWHPHQWH
H ORV OtPLWH
HV GH LQWHJUUDFLyQ SXHG
GHQ UHGXFLUUVH DO UDQJRR GH OD YDULDEOH GDGR
R
TXHVLHOUD
DQJRRVRSRUWHHVWiDF
FRWDGRSRUUHMHPSORH
HVXQLQWHUYDOR DE VXXIXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDG
G
HVQXODIXH
HUDGHGLFKR
RLQWHUYDOR\
\DTXHFXEUUHWRGDODP
PDVDGHSUREDELOLGDGHQHOPLVP
PR

$GH
HPiVVLJ ;
; HVXQDWUUDQVIRUPDF LyQGHXQDYDULDEOHDOH
HDWRULDFRQWWLQXD;7 J ; HVXQD
J
D
YDULDEOHDOH
HDWRULD\VX
XHVSHUDQ]D
DPDWHPiWLFFDSXHGHFDOFXODUVHDWUDYpVGHO DIXQFLyQG
GHGHQVLGDG
G
GH;





/D HVSHUDQ]D
D PDWHPiWLFD GH ODV YDULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV FRQWLQXDV FXPSOH OD
DV PLVPDVV
SURSLHGDGH
HV TXH HQ
Q HO FDVR GLVFUHWR OOD GLIHUHQF
FLD HVWi HQ
Q VX GHVDDUUROOR LQWHUUFDPELDQGR
R
VXPDWRULRVVSRULQWHJUD
DOHV\IXQFLRQHVSXQWX
XDOHVGHSUR
REDELOLGDGSRUIXQFLRQHHVGHGHQVLG
GDG


\VXUDt]FXDGUDGDSRVLWLYDUHFLEHHOQRPEUHGHGHVYLDFLyQWtSLFDRHVWiQGDU


3URSLHGDGHV
L  9DU ;N 9DU ; 
LL  9DU N; N9DU ; 
LLL  
LY  6L;H<VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV9DU ;< 9DU ; 9DU < 

 &DPELRGHYDULDEOHGHWLSRFRQWLQXR

(QRFDVLRQHVHVQHFHVDULRWUDQVIRUPDUODYDULDEOH;SRUPHGLRGHDOJXQDIXQFLyQDQWHVGH
SURFHGHU D VX WUDWDPLHQWR 3RU HMHPSOR HQ ODV FLHQFLDV H[SHULPHQWDOHV VRQ IUHFXHQWHV FDPELRV
FRPRORVVLJXLHQWHV
 &DPELRGHRULJHQGHDEVFLVDV;;K
 &DPELRGHHVFDODGHPHGLGD;;K
 7UDQVIRUPDFLyQORJDUtWPLFD SRUHMHPSORSDUDUHGXFLUODPDJQLWXG ;ORJ ; 
 7UDQVIRUPDFLyQH[SRQHQFLDO SRUHMHPSORSDUDDXPHQWDUODPDJQLWXG ;H[S ; 

(Q JHQHUDO HVWRV FDPELRV SXHGHQ HVFULELUVH FRPR = J ;  \ VL ) [  HV OD IXQFLyQ GH
GLVWULEXFLyQGH;HQWRQFHVODIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQGH=SXHGHREWHQHUVHFRPRVLJXH


$GHPiV VL OD IXQFLyQ J HV VLHPSUH HVWULFWDPHQWH PRQyWRQD FUHFLHQWH R GHFUHFLHQWH HO
VXFHVRDQWHULRUSXHGHH[SUHVDUVHFRPR




\SRUWDQWR







(MHPSOR6
6XSRQJDPR
RVXQDYDULD
DEOHDOHDWRUULDFRQWLQXD
D;FRQIXQF
FLyQGHGLVWUULEXFLyQ
x


F x x   
x >  @ 

x!

\VHD Z X 2 (QWRQFFHVHOUDQJ
JRGHODYDUULDEOH=HVH
HOLQWHUYDORFRQWRGRVORRVFXDGUDGRVGHORV
SXQWRVGH>@HVGH
HFLUHOLQWHUY
YDOR>@\
\SDUDFXDOT
TXLHU]>
@WHQGUHPRRVTXH

VLHQGRSDUD]!\
SDUD]

2EVVHUYDU TXH
H XQD YH] REWHQLGD
R
OD IXQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ GH XQD WUUDQVIRUPDF
FLyQ GH XQD
D
YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD FR
RQWLQXD UHV
VXOWD LQPHG
GLDWR REWHQHU OD IXQFLLyQ GH GHQQVLGDG GH OD YDULDEOH
H
WUDQVIRUPD
DGDPHGLDQWWHGHULYDFLy
yQGHVXIXQ
QFLyQGHGLV
VWULEXFLyQ

$VttHQHOHMHP
PSORDQWHULR
RUODIXQFLyQ
QGHGHQVLG
GDGYLHQHGD
DGDSRU

SDUD]>@VLHQGR
HQHOUHVWR

YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD ; TXH FRQWDELOLFH HO Q~PHUR GH YHFHV TXH KD RFXUULGR HO VXFHVR $ GH
SUREDELOLGDG S TXH GHILQH GLFKR H[SHULPHQWR GH %HUQRXOOL DO UHSHWLUOR Q YHFHV GH IRUPD
LQGHSHQGLHQWH

(VWR HV HO PRGHOR ELQRPLDO VH FRUUHVSRQGH FRQ OD VXPD GH YDULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV GH WLSR
%HUQRXOOL GH SDUiPHWUR S LQGHSHQGLHQWHV H LGpQWLFDV (VWD FRQGLFLyQ GH LQGHSHQGHQFLD HQ ODV Q
UHDOL]DFLRQHV GHO H[SHULPHQWR VH WUDGXFH HOHJLU Q REMHWRV FRQ UHHPSOD]DPLHQWR HQ SREODFLRQHV
ILQLWDV XQD XUQD FDUWDV HWF  R VLQ UHHPSOD]DPLHQWR HQ HO FDVR GH SREODFLRQHV LQILQLWDV
SURGXFFLyQGHSLH]DVGHXQDPiTXLQDSDFLHQWHVHQXQVHUYLFLRGHXUJHQFLDVHWF 

'HILQLFLyQ 6H GLFH TXH ; VLJXH XQD GLVWULEXFLyQ ELQRPLDO GH SDUiPHWURV Q \ S ;B QS  VL VX
IXQFLyQSXQWXDOGHSUREDELOLGDGODVLJXLHQWH

0,25

3UREDELOLGDG

0,20

p   p pq 
GRQGHVHK
KDGHQRWDGR
RSRUT S
S

 'LV
VWULEXFLyQ%
%LQRPLDO

6LUUHSHWLPRVQ
QYHFHVXQ H[SHULPHQ WRGHWLSRG
GLFRWyPLFR HQLJXDOGDGGGHFRQGLF
FLRQHV\GH
H
IRUPDLQGH
HSHQGLHQWH FRPRVXFH
HGHFXDQGR
RWLUDPRVXQ
QDPRQHGDDODLUHQYYHFHVVXUJH
HXQQXHYR
R
PRGHORGH
HSUREDELOLGD
DGFRQRFLGR
RFRPRPR
RGHORELQRP
PLDO$VRFLDG
GRDHVWHP
PRGHORGHIILQLPRVXQD
D



HQRWURFDVR

'HQVLGDGGHSUREDELOLGDG% 

$OJ
JXQRVPRG
GHORVGHSUREDELOLGDG
GGLVFUHWRV

 'LV
VWULEXFLyQG
GH%HUQRXOOL

8Q H[SHULPHQ
QWR DOHDWRULR
R GH WLSR G
GLFRWyPLFR HV DTXHO HQ
H HO TXH VVyOR KD\ GR
RV SRVLEOHVV
UHVXOWDGRV R HQ HO TXH WRGRV OR
RV UHVXOWDG
GRV VH FODV
VLILFDQ HQ GRV
G
JUXSRV GLVMXQWRV TXH VRQ HOO
REMHWLYRGH
HOHVWXGLRR
RFXUUHHOVXFHVR$RVX
XFRQWUDULR3RUHMHPSORDOODQ]DUUXQDPRQH
HGDDODLUH\\
YHU VL VDOH
H FDUD R QR
Q DO H[DP
PLQDU XQD S
SLH]D GH XQ SURFHVR GH SURGXFFFLyQ \ HVWXGLDU VL HVV
GHIHFWXRVD
DRQRHQWUH
HRWURV

/D SUREDELOLGD
DG DVRFLDGD
D D OD RFXUUUHQFLD R UHD
DOL]DFLyQ GH
H$ HV 3 $ S VLHQGR
R S T OD
D
SUREDELOLGD
DGGHVXVX
XFHVRFRPS
SOHPHQWDULR $VtXQDY
YDULDEOHDOHDWRULDGHILQQLGDVREUHH
HVWHWLSRGH
H
H[SHULPHQWRVTXHDVLLJQHHOYDOR
RUVLRFXUUUHHOVXFHVR
R$\VLR
RFXUUHHOVXXFHVRFRPS
SOHPHQWDULR
GHILQHHOP
PRGHORGH%
%HUQRXOOL

'HILQLFLyQ
Q6HGLFHT
TXH;VLJXH
HXQDGLVWULE
EXFLyQGH%
%HUQRXOOLGH
HSDUiPHWURRSS;b S VLL
VXIXQFLyQSXQWXDOGHSUREDELOLGD
DGHV

E X   E X

 n

0,30




x Varr X

SDUDx


3RU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UHSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GH SUREDELOLGDG GH XQD
YDULDEOHELQRPLDOB Q S  



 0RGH
HORVGHS
SUREDELOLGDGPiV
VXVXDOHV
VGHYDULDEOHVDOH
HDWRULDV
GLVFUUHWDV\FR
RQWLQXDV
V


VWLFDVGHOP
PRGHOR%HUUQRXOOL
&DUDFWHUtV
x E X  p   q p 

n x  x
p q
x


f x

p  p

0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
0

10


&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHOPRGHOR%LQRPLDO

x E X E X    X n E X    E X n
x Var X Var X   Var X n npq 

p   p

np 


 'LVWULEXFLyQ+LSHUJHRPpWULFD

(QODSUiFWLFDODUHSHWLFLyQGHOH[SHULPHQWRDOHDWRULRGHWLSRGLFRWyPLFRQRVLHPSUHSXHGH
UHDOL]DUVH HQ FRQGLFLRQHV GH LQGHSHQGHQFLD FRPR HQ HO SURFHVR VLQ UHHPSOD]DPLHQWR HQ
SREODFLRQHVILQLWDV

3RUHMHPSORVXSRQJDPRVTXHYDPRVDUHDOL]DUXQDLQVSHFFLyQHQXQDSHUUHUDFRQXQWRWDO
GH 1 DQLPDOHV GH ORV FXDOHV . HVWiQ HQIHUPRV $O UHDOL]DU OD LQVSHFFLyQ VREUH XQD PXHVWUD
DOHDWRULD GH WDPDxR Q VH GHVHD VDEHU OD FDQWLGDG GH DQLPDOHV HQIHUPRV TXH VHUiQ
LQVSHFFLRQDGRV

6LXQDYH]DQDOL]DGRXQSHUURpVWHVHGHYXHOYHDODSHUUHUD\VHPH]FODFRQHOUHVWR FRQ
UHHPSOD]DPLHQWR ODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDTXHFRQWDELOL]DORVHQIHUPRVVHJXLUtDXQPRGHORELQRPLDO
6LQ HPEDUJR FXDQGR VH VHSDUDQ ORV DQLPDOHV DO LQVSHFFLRQDUORV VLQ UHHPSOD]DPLHQWR  FDGD
LQVSHFFLyQHVXQH[SHULPHQWRGLFRWyPLFRTXHQRVHUHSLWHGHIRUPDLQGHSHQGLHQWHHOSURFHVRGH
%HUQRXOOLVLHQGRPRGHOL]DGRHVWHH[SHULPHQWRFRQODGLVWULEXFLyQKLSHUJHRPpWULFD

'HILQLFLyQ 6HDQ 1 . \ Q WUHV HQWHURV SRVLWLYRV FRQ .1 \ Q1 VH GLFH TXH ; VLJXH XQD
GLVWULEXFLyQ KLSHUJHRPpWULFD GH SDUiPHWURV 1 Q \ . ;H 1Q.  VL VX IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GH
SUREDELOLGDGYLHQHGDGDSRU



f x

K N  K


x n  x

VLLmax^ n  N  K ` d x d min^ K  n`

RDOHUWDHQ
QXQGHWHUP
PLQDGRLQWHUY
YDORGHWLHP
PSRQ~PHUURGHPXWDF
FLRQHVHQXXQDSODFDGH
HFXOWLYRHQ
Q
XQGtDHWFF

Q6HGLFHT
TXH;VLJXHXQDGLVWULE XFLyQGH3R
RLVVRQGHSDUiPHWUROO;P O VLVXIXQFLyQ
Q
'HILQLFLyQ
GHSUREDELLOLGDGSXQWX
XDOYLHQHGDGDSRU

HQ
QRWURFDVR

f x

SDUDDx

 

HQR
RWURFDVR


3RUU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UH
HSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GHH SUREDELOLG
GDG GH XQD
D
YDULDEOHGH
H3RLVVRQP
P O  
'HQVLG
GDGGHSUREDELOLGDGGH3 
0,25

0,20

3UREDELOLGDG

2EVVHUYDU TXH HO UDQJR GH


G OD YDULDE
EOH DOHDWRULD TXH FRQWWDELOL]D HO QQ~PHUR GH YHFHV TXH
H
RFXUUHHOVVXFHVRGHLQWHUpV$GX
XUDQWHODUH DOL]DFLyQGH
HOH[SHULPH
HQWRHVWiDFFRWDGRSRU ORVYDORUHVV
DQWHULRUHVGDGRTXH VHUtDLPSRV
VLEOHREWHQH
HUPiVUHVS
SXHVWDVHQ$TXHODVTTXHFRQWLHQH . RTXH
H
ODVTXHVHUHDOL]DQ Q
Q <SRURWUUDSDUWHHVVHJXURTXH
HODFRQWDELOL]DFLyQGHHUHVSXHVWDV
VHQ$VHUi
i
SRVLWLYD\G
GHDOPHQRVVODFDQWLGDGGHUHSHWLFFLRQHVTXHVXSHUHODVTXHQRHVWiiQHQ$ 1. 

3RUU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UH
HSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GHH SUREDELOLG
GDG GH XQD
D
YDULDEOHKLSHUJHRPpWUULFDH 1 
Q .  

O Ox
e

x


'HQVLGDGG
GHSUREDELOLGDGGH+
+ 
0,25

0,15

0,10

0,20

3UREDELOLGDG

0,05

0,15
0,00
0

0,10

0,00
5


&DUDFWHUtV
VWLFDVGHOP
PRGHOR+LS
SHUJHRPpWUULFR
6LG
GHQRWDPRVSRUS .1HQWRQFHV
x E X np 

x

Var X

10
;

15

20

lim P X
x 6HDD;B QS \O QSHQWRQFHV nof

N n
npq
N   


(MHPSOR (Q HO PXQLLFLSLR GH 0XUFLD KD\ 
 HVWDFLRQ
QHV PHWHRUR
ROyJLFDV /DD SUREDELOLG
GDG GH TXH
H
XQDHVWDFLyQIXQFLRQH
HHV6H
HUHDOL]DXQ
QDLQVSHFFLy
yQGHHV
VWDFLRQHVHHOHJLGDVDOD
D]DU&XiOO
HVODSURED
DELOLGDGGHTXHIXQFLRQ
QHQPiVGH
H"

(Q HVWHFDVR FRPRVHWUDWDGHXQD SREODFLyQIILQLWDODYDUULDEOH;TXHHFXHQWDHOQ~PHURGH
H
HVWDFLRQHVV PHWHRUROy
yJLFDV IXQFLRQDQGR VH
H DMXVWD D XQD KLSHUJHRPpWULFD GH SDUiPH
HWURV 1 
0 1S 
 Q GHIRUP
PDTXH



 'LV
VWULEXFLyQG
GH3RLVVRQ
Q

(Q HVWH FDVR VXSRQLHQG
GR TXH HO S URFHVR GH %HUQRXOOL SX
XHGH UHSHWLLUVH LQGHILQLGDPHQWH \
\
GH IRUPD LQGHSHQGLHQ
QWH \ HO REMMHWLYR FRQVLLVWH HQ FRQWDELOL]DU HO Q~PHUR GHH YHFHV TXH
H RFXUUH XQ
Q
GHWHUPLQDG
GRVXFHVR REWHQLpQGR
RVHPHGLDQ WHFRPROtP
PLWHGHODGLVWULEXFLyQEELQRPLDOHO PRGHORGH
H
3RLVVRQ(
(VWHPRGHOR
RWDPELpQV
VHDGDSWDD
DSURFHVRV GHFRQWHRG
GHRFXUUHQFFLDGHXQV
VXFHVREDMR
R
FLHUWDV FRQ
QGLFLRQHV FRPR
F
TXH QR SXHGH FFRQWDELOL]DUUVH PiV GH XQD YH] ODD RFXUUHQFLLD GH GLFKR
R
VXFHVR HQ
Q XQ LQWHUYYDOR GH WLHP
PSR VXILFLH
HQWHPHQWH SHTXHxR TXH HO FRQQWHR QR GH
HSHQGH GHOO
PSR GHGLFD
PRPHQWR HQ HO TXH VH KDJD VLQR
V
GHO WLHP
DGR D GLFKR
R FRQWHR \ HV LQGHSH
HQGLHQWH GH
H
FXDOTXLHUR
RWURLQWHUYDOOR3RUHMHP
PSORODFDQ
QWLGDGGHOOD
DPDGDVUHFR
RJLGDVHQXXQVHUYLFLRG
GHDWHQFLyQ
Q

10
X

15

20


&DUDFWHUtV
VWLFDVGHOP
PRGHORGH3RLVVRQ
x

x


0,05



eO

Ox
x

 x

   

2EVHUYDUTXHSDUDQ!\SVH
HFRQVLGHUDXQDEXHQDDSUR[LPDFLLyQ

VWULEXFLyQ*
*HRPpWULFD
D
 'LV

HUQRXOOL SXHGH UHSHWLUUVH LQGHILQLLGDPHQWH \
6XS
SRQLHQGR TXH
T
HO SURF
FHVR GH %H
\ GH IRUPD
D
LQGHSHQGLH
HQWHSHURD
DKRUDHOREMMHWLYRFRQVLVVWHHQFRQWWDELOL]DUHOQ
Q~PHURGHYYHFHVTXHVHUHSLWHOD
D
UHDOL]DFLyQ
Q GHO H[SHULPHQWR KDV
VWD TXH RFX
XUUH SRU SULPHUD YH] XQ
X GHWHUPLQQDGR VXFHV
VR (Q HVWH
H
FDVRVHREWLHQHXQP
PRGHORJHRP
PpWULFR

(MH
HPSORVXVXD
DOHVHQORV TXHHVWHWLLSRGHPRG
GHORVDSDUHFHVRQFRQQWDELOL]DUHO Q~PHURGH
H
YHFHV TXH
H KD\ TXH ODQ]DU XQD PRQHGD KD
DVWD TXH VDOJD
V
OD SULP
PHUD FDUD HO Q~PHUR
R GH SLH]DVV
SURGXFLGDVV SRU XQD PiTXLQD TXH KD\ T
TXH LQVSHF
FFLRQDU KDV
VWD HQFRQWWUDU OD SULP
PHUD SLH]D
D
GHIHFWXRVD
DHWF

'HILQLFLyQ
Q 6H GLFH TXH ; VLJ
JXH XQD GLVVWULEXFLyQ JHRPpWULFD
J
DUiPHWUR S
R GH 3DVFFDO FRQ SD
;G O VLVXIXQFLyQSXQWXDOGHSUREDELOLGD
DGHV

f x

pq
p x

SDUDx 
HQRWUURFDVR


2EVVHUYDU TXH HVWD GHILQ
QLFLyQ FRQWD
DELOL]D OD FDQWLGDG
F
GH
H QR RFXUUHHQFLDV GHO VXFHVR GH
H
LQWHUpV DQWWHV GH REWH
HQHU OD SULP
PHUD VLHQGR
R WDPELpQ KDELWXDO
K
HO XVR GHO PRRGHOR JHRP
PpWULFR SDUD
D
FRQWDELOL]D
DU OD FDQWLGD
DG GH UHDOL]DFLRQHV G
GHO H[SHULPHQWR KDVWD OD SULPHUDD RFXUUHQFLD
D HV GHFLU
< ;




3UREDELOLGDG

0,25
0,20
0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
0

10

20
;

30

40


&DUDFWHUtV
VWLFDVGHOP
PRGHORJHR
RPpWULFR

x


x

x 3URRSLHGDGGHIDOWDGHPHPRULD P X

a  b X t a P X

b 


 'LV
VWULEXFLyQX
XQLIRUPHG
GLVFUHWD

(VWWH PRGHOR VH DSOLFD HQ H[SHULP
PHQWRV DOHD
DWRULRV FRQ
Q XQ Q~PHHUR ILQLWR GH
H P~OWLSOHVV
UHVXOWDGRV SRVLEOHV R
R XQD SDUWLF
FLyQ GH VXFFHVRV GLVMXQWRV FRQ OD
D SURSLHGDGG GH HTXLSUUREDELOLGDG
QHFHVDULD HQHOFRQFH
HSWRGHSUREDELOLGDGG H/DSODFH (VGHFLU3 $L SL SSDDUDFDGDVX
XFHVRGHOD
D
SDUWLFLyQLNSRUOR
RTXHS N
NFRPRSRUUHMHPSORH
HQHOODQ]DPLHQWRGHXXQGDGR\Y
YHUFXiOGH
H
VXV  FD
DUDV VH KD REWHQLGR
R (VWH P
PRGHOR UHS
SUHVHQWD GLFKR FRQFHHSWR GH HTXLOLEULR
H
R
R
HTXLSUREDE
ELOLGDG GDG
GR TXH WUDWD GH UHSDUUWLU OD PDVD
D GH SUREDE
ELOLGDG SRU LJXDO HQWUH
H WRGRV ORVV
SXQWRVGHOUDQJRGHOD
DYDULDEOH

'HILQLFLyQ
Q6HGLFHTXH;VLJXHXQDGLVWULEX
XFLyQ8QLIRUPHGHSDUi
iPHWURS  N;U S VL; $L L
SDUDLNN\VLVXIXQ
QFLyQSXQWXD
DOGHSURED
DELOLGDGHV
I [
[ NVL[ N\
\I [ HQ
QRWURFDVR

VWLFDVGHOP
PRGHORXQLLIRUPHGLVF
FUHWR
&DUDFWHUtV

x P ( ;


x ( ;
; 

x


3RUU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UH
HSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GHH SUREDELOLG
GDG GH XQD
D
YDULDEOHXQ
QLIRUPHGLVFFUHWDU S  FRPRH

HQHOH[SHULLPHQWRDOHD
DWRULRGHOODQQ]DPLHQWRGHXQGDGR
R
HTXLOLEUDGR
R
)XQFLyQGHGH QVLGDGGHOODQ]DPLH
HQWRGHXQGDGR
0,22

3UREDELOLGDG

0,20

0,18

0,16

0,14

0,12
1

3
4
[ QGHODFDUUD

0RGHORVGHSUREDELOLGDGFRQWLQXRV

 'LVWULEXFLyQ8QLIRUPH

/DYHUVLyQFRQWLQXDGHOPRGHORXQLIRUPHPDQWLHQHODSURSLHGDGGHHTXLOLEULRDOUHSDUWLUSRU
LJXDOODPDVDGHSUREDELOLGDGFXDQGRHOUDQJRGHODYDULDEOHHVXQLQWHUYDORHQHOVHQWLGRGHTXH
ODIXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGHVFRQVWDQWHHQHVWHFDVRDOLJXDOTXHORHVODSUREDELOLGDGSXQWXDOHQHO
GLVFUHWR (VWH PRGHOR UHSUHVHQWD HO SUREOHPD GH HOHFFLyQ GH XQ SXQWR DO D]DU GHQWUR GH XQ
LQWHUYDOR

$Vt VH GLFH TXH ; WLHQH XQD GLVWULEXFLyQ XQLIRUPH VL VX IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG I [  WRPD HO
YDORU FRQVWDQWH N HQ HO LQWHUYDOR >D E@ \ HV QXOD IXHUD GH GLFKR LQWHUYDOR \ VH UHSUHVHQWD SRU
;U DE GRQGHODFRQVWDQWHNHVWiGHWHUPLQDGDSRUODFRQGLFLyQGHTXHI [ VHDXQDIXQFLyQGH
GHQVLGDGHVGHFLUN\

$GHPiVSRULQWHJUDFLyQVHREWLHQHVXIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ) [ VL[D) [  VL

[ >D E@ \ ) [   VL [!E < VXV SULQFLSDOHV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV PHGLD \ YDULDQ]D VRQ

Funcin de densidad del modelo Uniforme en [0,4]

 \

Funcin de distribucin del modelo Uniforme en [0,4]

0,5

1,0

0,4

0,8

0,3

0,6

0,2

0,4

0,1

0,2

0,0

0,0
-1

2
U04

-1

2
U04



 'LVWULEXFLyQ([SRQHQFLDO

(O HVWXGLR \ DQiOLVLV GH WLHPSRV GH YLGD R VXSHUYLYHQFLD UHTXLHUH OD XWLOL]DFLyQ YDULDEOHV
DOHDWRULDV FRQWLQXDV VLHQGR HO PRGHOR H[SRQHQFLDO XQR GH ORV SULPHURV \ PiV FRQRFLGRV 3RU
HMHPSORGDGRXQLQWHUYDORGHORQJLWXGWODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDTXHFRQWDELOL]DHOQ~PHURGHYHFHV
TXHRFXUUHXQGHWHUPLQDGRVXFHVRGXUDQWHGLFKRLQWHUYDOR1 W VHFRUUHVSRQGHDXQPRGHORGH
3RLVVRQGHSDUiPHWUROWGRQGHOHVHOSDUiPHWURGHOPRGHORHQHOLQWHUYDORXQLWDULRHVGHFLUHO
Q~PHURSURPHGLRGHYHFHVTXHVHRFXUUHHOVXFHVRSRUXQLGDGGHWLHPSR

(Q HVWH FRQWH[WR OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD TXH PLGH OD GXUDFLyQ GH WLHPSR HQWUH GRV
RFXUUHQFLDVFRQVHFXWLYDVFRUUHVSRQGHDXQPRGHORH[SRQHQFLDO;Exp O FX\DGLVWULEXFLyQHVWi
GHWHUPLQDGD SRU OD SUREDELOLGDG GH TXH HO WLHPSR WUDQVFXUULGR VHD PD\RU TXH XQ GHWHUPLQDGR
LQWHUYDORGHORQJLWXGW




RHTXLYDOHQWHPHQWH

F x




(MHPSOR 8Q H[SHULPHQWR FRQVLVWH HQ HOHJLU DO D]DU XQ Q~PHUR UHDO HQ HO LQWHUYDOR > @ /DV
JUiILFDVGHODVIXQFLRQHVGHGHQVLGDG\GLVWULEXFLyQGHODYDULDEOH;DVRFLDGDDOH[SHULPHQWRVRQ


F(x)

'HQVLGD
DGGHSUREDELOLGDGG
GH* 
0,30



3RUU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UH


HSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ SXQWXDO GHH SUREDELOLG
GDG GH XQD
D
YDULDEOHJH
HRPpWULFDG
G S  

P X d x   e  Ox  x t  \ f x

Oe  Ox  x t  




&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHOPRGHORH[SRQHQFLDO

x P ( ; 

)XQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGGH( 
([SRQHQWLDO0HGLD 
0,35
0,30

x 
x 3URSLHGDGGHIDOWDGHPHPRULD 

(VWD~OWLPDSURSLHGDGOHSURSRUFLRQDXQHVSHFLDOLQWHUpVDOPRGHORH[SRQHQFLDOHQHVWXGLRV
GH ILDELOLGDG GDGR TXH LPSOLFD TXH OD XQLGDG R VLVWHPD QR VH GHVJDVWD HQ HO VHQWLGR GH TXH
LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH GHO WLHPSR TXH KD\D HVWDGR IXQFLRQDQGR OD SUREDELOLGDG GH TXH VLJD
IXQFLRQDQGRHVODPLVPDTXHXQDQXHYD

(MHPSOR (Q XQD SODQWD GH SURFHVDGR GH UHVLGXRV VyOLGRV VH GHVFDUJDQ XQD PHGLD GH 
FDPLRQHVGHEDVXUDFDGDKRUDGXUDQWHHOSHULRGRGHPi[LPDDFWLYLGDGTXHVHHVWLPDHQXQDV
KRUDV 6HD 7 OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD TXH PLGH HO WLHPSR HQWUH GRV GHVFDUJDV FRQVHFXWLYDV GH ORV
FDPLRQHVGHEDVXUDGXUDQWHGLFKRSHULRGRGHPi[LPDDFWLYLGDG
 4Xp SUREDELOLGDG KD\ GH TXH HO WLHPSR 7 HQWUH GRV GHVFDUJDV FRQVHFXWLYDV VHD PD\RU
TXHPLQXWRV"\TXHVHDPD\RUTXHWPLQXWRV"
 &XiOHVVRQODIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ\GHGHQVLGDGGHODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD7"

(Q SULPHU OXJDU SRGHPRV REVHUYDU TXH HO Q~PHUR GH GHVFDUJDV GH FDPLRQHVGH EDVXUD
FDGD KRUD;K ; VH PRGHOL]D DWUDYpV GH XQD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH 3RLVVRQ GH PHGLD  GHVFDUJDV
SRUKRUD$VtGLYLGLHQGRORVPLQXWRVGHXQDKRUDHQWUHODVGHVFDUJDVTXHVHSURGXFHQSRU
WpUPLQR PHGLR REWHQHPRV XQD GXUDFLyQ PHGLD GH  PLQXWRV HQWUH FDGD GRV GHVFDUJDV
FRQVHFXWLYDV ( 7 PLQXWRVGDGRTXH7PLGHHOWLHPSRTXHWUDQVFXUUHHQWUHGRVGHVFDUJDV
FRQVHFXWLYDV

6LFRQVLGHUDPRVODYDULDEOH;TXHPLGHHOQ~PHURGHGHVFDUJDVGHFDPLRQHVGHEDVXUD
HQ XQ LQWHUYDOR GH  PLQXWRV REVHUYDPRV TXH ; VLJXH XQ PRGHOR GH 3RLVVRQ GH PHGLD 
GHVFDUJD SRU FDGD  PLQXWRV 3RU WDQWR TXH HO WLHPSR HQWUH GRV GHVFDUJDV FRQVHFXWLYDV VHD
PD\RU TXH  PLQXWRV 7!  HTXLYDOHQWH D TXH QR VH SURGX]FD QLQJXQD RWUD GHVFDUJD HQ ORV
VLJXLHQWHVPLQXWRV ;  
P T ! 

P X 

e 




e  

Densidad

0,25

0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00



 'LVWULEXFLyQ1RUPDO

9HDPRV DKRUD XQR GH ORV PRGHORV PiV XWLOL]DGRV HQ OD SUiFWLFD \D TXH SURSRUFLRQD XQ
PRGHORGHGLVWULEXFLyQXQLILFDGRDOTXHVHDSUR[LPDQORVPRGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHQXPHURVDV
YDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVDVRFLDGDVDH[SHULPHQWRVQDWXUDOHVWDOHVFRPRHOSHVRDOWXUDFRHILFLHQWHGH
LQWHOLJHQFLDSXQWXDFLRQHVGHXQH[DPHQHUURUHVGHPHGLGD

'HILQLFLyQ6HGLFHTXH;VLJXHXQDGLVWULEXFLyQQRUPDOGHPHGLD\GHVYLDFLyQWtSLFD ! 
;N  VLVXIXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGYLHQHGDGDSRU
 xP



e 
SV

f x

   f  x  f 


&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHOPRGHORQRUPDO
 P ( ; 
 
 0RGD/DGHQVLGDGI [ DOFDQ]DVXPi[LPRHQ[ 
 6LPpWULFDI [ HVVLPpWULFDUHVSHFWRGH[ 
 /RVSXQWRVGHLQIOH[LyQGHI [ VRQ[ \[ 
 /DSUREDELOLGDGHQHOLQWHUYDOR  HV

 6L;N  HQWRQFHV


N  

 6L X i { N P i  Vi  i


 k VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV
X X   X k { N P   P k  V   V k 

 6L X { N P  V HQWRQFHV< D;EN ED 



3RUHMHPSORHOJUiILFRVLJXLHQWHUHSUHVHQWDODIXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGGHXQDYDULDEOHQRUPDO
;N    WDPELpQ OODPDGD FDPSDQD GH *DXVV \ HO iUHD VRPEUHDGD FRUUHVSRQGH D OD
SUREDELOLGDG3 ;  


)XQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGGHXQDYDULDEOH1 
Normal; Mean=5; StDev=2
0,954

0,20

0,15
Densidad

(Q JHQHUDO VL FRQVLGHUDPRV XQ LQWHUYDOR GH WLHPSR GH ORQJLWXG W PLQXWRV OD YDULDEOH
DOHDWRULD;WTXHPLGHHOQ~PHURGHGHVFDUJDVGHFDPLRQHVGHEDVXUDWLHQHXQDGLVWULEXFLyQGH
 t
t
3RLVVRQGHPHGLDGHGHVFDUJDV E X t
HQGLFKRLQWHUYDOR\


t   
P T ! t P X t  e  t  
e  t   


<SRUWDQWR7HVXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDFRQWLQXDFRQGLVWULEXFLyQH[SRQHQFLDOGHPHGLD
\DTXHVXIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQHV
FT t P T d t   P T ! t   e  t   SDUDWRGRW
VLHQGRVXIXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDG
d
f T t
FT t  e  t   SDUDWRGRW!

dt

(Q HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWHVH UHSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG GH XQD YDULDEOH H[SRQHQFLDO
7Exp O \HOiUHDVRPEUHDGDFRUUHVSRQGHDODSUREDELOLGDG3 7 

0,632

0,20

0,10

0,05

0,00

5
X

$VtHQODSUiFWLFDHVKDELWXDOXWLOL]DUODUHODFLyQHQWUHFXDOTXLHUPRGHORQRUPDO\ODQRUPDO
HVWiQGDURWLSLILFDGDGDGDHQOD~OWLPDSURSLHGDGSDUDHOFiOFXORGHSUREDELOLGDGHVDWUDYpVGHOD





GLVWULEXFLyQ
Q GH pVWD ~OWLPD
~

N  
  WHQLHQGR
R HQ FXHQWD
D ODV GRV V LJXLHQWHV SURSLHGDGHV
S
V

JHQHUDOHVGHODVIXQFLRQHVGHGLV
VWULEXFLyQ




GDGRTXHS
SDUDFXDOTX
XLHUQRUPDO ;N  VHWLHQHTXH

P X d x

X  P x  P
P

d
V
V

P Z d z 

GRQGH=N
N  HVX
XQDQRUPDOH
HVWiQGDU

$GH
HPiV GHELG
GR D OD VLP
PHWUtD GH OD GLVWULEXFLyQ QRUPDO FRQ UHVSHFWRR D VX PHG
GLD VyOR HVV
QHFHVDULR HOXVRGHOD
DIXQFLyQGH
HGLVWULEXFLy
yQGHODQRUUPDOHVWiQG
GDUSDUDYDOORUHVSRVLWLY
YRV\DTXH
H
SDUDFDGDSXQWRQHJD
DWLYR]VH
HFXPSOHTX
XH
P Z d z P Z !  z   P Z d  z 

$GHPiV QR HV QHFHVDULR FRQRFHU HO PRGHOR GH GLVWULEXFLyQ GH OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD
SREODFLRQDOSDUDDSUR[LPDUODGLVWULEXFLyQGHVXHVWDGtVWLFRPHGLDPXHVWUDOGDGRSRUODVVXPDV
SDUFLDOHV SRQGHUDGDV ~QLFDPHQWH TXH H[LVWDQ VXV SDUiPHWURV PHGLD \ YDULDQ]D FRPR VH
REVHUYDHQHOVLJXLHQWH7HRUHPD&HQWUDOGHO/tPLWH

7HRUHPD GH /LQGHEHUJ/pY\  6HD ; ;  ;Q  XQD VXFHVLyQ GH YDULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV

LQGHSHQGLHQWHVHLGpQWLFDPHQWHGLVWULEXLGDVFRQPHGLDP\YDULDQ]D V ILQLWDV(QWRQFHV

Sn  nm

V n


o N 
 
L


(VWHUHVXOWDGRWDPELpQSXHGHHVFULELUVHFRPR

Xn  m


oN 

L

n
GRQGH X n


 7HR
RUHPDVFHQ
QWUDOHVGHOOtPLWH

/RVVWHRUHPDV FHQWUDOHVG
GHOOtPLWHVR
RQUHVXOWDGR
RVGHWHRUtD
DGHODSUREEDELOLGDGTX
XHSHUPLWHQ
Q
DSOLFDUODG
GLVWULEXFLyQ QRUPDOFRP
PRPRGHOR DSUR[LPDGR
RHQGLYHUVD
DVVLWXDFLRQQHVH[SHULP
PHQWDOHVOR
R
TXHOHDSR
RUWDXQDLPSRUWDQWHXWLOLGDGSUiFWWLFDDOPRGH
HORQRUPDO HQORV SURFFHVRVGHOD
DLQIHUHQFLD
D
HVWDGtVWLFD
D &RPR VH
H UHIOHMD GH
HO VLJXLHQWH UHVXOWDGR 'H 0RLYUH \ /DSODFHH VREUH OD GLVWULEXFLyQ
G
Q
OtPLWHGHX
XQDYDULDEOH
HGHFRQWHRGHp[LWRVH
HQXQSURFH
HVRGH%HUQ
QRXOOLHVGHHFLUHQXQD
DUHSHWLFLyQ
Q
GHH[SHULP
PHQWRVLQGH
HSHQGLHQWHV
VGH%HUQRX
XOOLFRQHOPLLVPRSDUiP
PHWURGHp[L WR

7HRUHPD 'H 0RLYUH
H/DSODFH  6HD ; ;  ;Q  XQD VXFHVLyQ
V
GHH YDULDEOHV
V DOHDWRULDVV
LQGHSHQGLH
HQWHVHLGpQ
QWLFDPHQWHGLVWULEXLGDVVFRQ;Qb
b S SDUDWRGRQ\VHD6
6Q (QWRQFHV
Sn  np L

o N 
 
np
npq

 n
X 
n i  i


 'LVWULEXFLRQHVDVRFLDGDVDOPRGHORQRUPDO

'LVWULEXFLyQFKLFXDGUDGRGH3HDUVRQ
6HD = =  =Q XQ FRQMXQWR GH Q YDULDEOHV DOHDWRULDV QRUPDOHV HVWiQGDU H
LQGHSHQGLHQWHV =LN    OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD ; GDGD SRU OD VXPD GH FXDGUDGRV VLJXH XQ
PRGHORGHGLVWULEXFLyQFKLFXDGUDGRGH3HDUVRQGHQJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDG

\SRUWDQWRVLHPSUHHVSRVLWLYD

$GHPiVVXVSULQFLSDOHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVRQ
 
\ OD VLJXLHQWH JUiILFD UHSUHVHQWD OD IRUPD GH VX IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG SDUD DOJXQRV JUDGRV GH
OLEHUWDG Q GI 
Grfica de distribucin

Chicuadrado

(VWWHUHVXOWDGR
RQRVSURSRUFLRQDODFR
RQYHUJHQFLD
DGHOPRGHORELQRPLDO DOQRUPDO\
\SRUWDQWR
DSUR[LPDU OD GLVWULEXFFLyQ ELQRPLLDO SRU XQ P
PRGHOR QRUUPDO FXDQGR HO Q~PHUUR GH UHSHWWLFLRQHV GHOO
H[SHULPHQWRHVVXILFLH
HQWHPHQWHJUDQGH

B n  p  o N n p 
L

n p q w B n  p | N P

np V 

0,25

0,20

npq 

npp | N P

O V

0,15

0,10

0,05

0,00

VLHQGRODD
DSUR[LPDFLy
yQEXHQDFX
XDQGRO!

2EVVHUYDU TXH
H HQ ODV DQWHULRUHV
D
D
DSUR[LPDFLR
RQHV VH DSUR[LPD
D
XXQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD
D
GLVFUHWD ;
; SRU XQD YDULDEOH
Y
DOH
HDWRULD FRQWWLQXD < WHQ
QLHQGR HQ FXHQWD TXHH ODV GLVFUH
HWDV WLHQHQ
Q
FRQFHQWUDG
GDODPDVDGHSUREDELOLGDGHQXQ FRQMXQWRG
GHSXQWRV\ODVFRQWLQXXDVWLHQHQS
SUREDELOLGDG
G
SXQWXDO QX
XOD 3DUD HYLWDU HVWH
H LQFRQYHQLLHQWH HQ OD SUiFWLFD VH UHDOL]DD XQD FRUUUHFFLyQ SRUU
FRQWLQXLGDG
GSDUDFRQFFHQWUDUHQODPDVDGH SUREDELOLGD
DGTXHKD\HQWRUQRDXXQSXQWRGH
HODYDULDEOH
H
FRQWLQXDSDUDDSUR[LP
PDUODSURED
DELOLGDGSXQ
QWXDOGHODY
YDULDEOHGLVF
FUHWD




Densidad

VLHQGRDFH
HSWDEOHHVWD
DDSUR[LPDF
FLyQFXDQGR
RQS!QT!
!\S
SVLE LHQFXDQWRPD\RUVHD
Q\PiVVH
HDSUR[LPHSDPHMRUHVODDSUUR[LPDFLyQ

$VLPLVPR WHQ
QLHQGR HQ FXHQWD OD
D DSUR[LPDFLyQ GHO PRGHOR
P
ELQ RPLDO DO 3RLVVRQ
3
OD
D
GLVWULEXFLyQ
GHWHUPLQDG
QQRUPDOWD
DPELpQVH XWLOL]DEDMR
X
GDVFRQGLFLR
RQHVFRPR
RDSUR[LPDF
FLyQGHXQD
D
GLVWULEXFLyQ
QGH3RLVVR
RQ

P O

df
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10



10

15
X

20

25

30



2WUDVSURSLHGDGHVGHLQWHUpVGHHVWHPRGHORVRQ

x $GLWLYLGDGRUHSURGXFWLYLGDG6L; H<
VRQLQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWRQFHV


;<
x 6L 6 HV OD YDULDQ]D LQVHVJDGD GH XQD PXHVWUD DOHDWRULD VLPSOH GH WDPDxR Q GH XQD

YDULDEOHQRUPDO1  HQWRQFHV



3RU HMHPSOR HO JUiILFR VLJXLHQWH UHSUHVHQWD OD IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG GH XQD YDULDEOH FRQ
GLVWULEXFLyQ)GH6QHGHFRUSDUDDOJXQRVJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDG QP OODPDGRVJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDGGHO
QXPHUDGRU Q GI \GHOGHQRPLQDGRU P GI 

Grfica de distribucin
F

0,6
0,5

0,1
0,0

Densidad

0,3

0,2

0,1

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10

12



8QD SURSLHGDG GH XWLOLGDG SDUD HO FiOFXOR GH FXDQWLOHV GH HVWH PRGHOR HQ ORV SUREOHPDV
LQIHUHQFLDOHVHVODSUHVHUYDFLyQGHOPRGHORPHGLDQWHODWUDQVIRUPDFLyQ< ;LQWHUFDPELDQGRORV
SDUiPHWURVHVGHFLUVL HQWRQFHV 

2WUDDSOLFDFLyQGHLQWHUpVHQLQIHUHQFLDHVODWUDQVIRUPDFLyQGDGDSRU HOFRFLHQWHGHGRV
YDULDQ]DVLQVHVJDGDV6L HVODYDULDQ]DLQVHVJDGDGHXQDPXHVWUDDOHDWRULDVLPSOHGHWDPDxR
QGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDSREODFLRQDO;N P;V; \ HVODYDULDQ]DLQVHVJDGDGHRWUDPXHVWUD
DOHDWRULD VLPSOH GH WDPDxR P GH XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD SREODFLRQDO <N P<V<  VLHQGR ; H <
LQGHSHQGLHQWHVHQWUHVtHQWRQFHV





df
2
5
10
15
20

0,4

-2,5

0,3

-5,0

0,4

df2
2
4
6
8
2
4
6
8
2
4
6
8

0,2

Grfica de distribucin

0,0

df1
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
7
7
7
7

0,7

Densidad

'LVWULEXFLyQGHW6WXGHQW
6HD=XQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULDQRUPDON  HLQGHSHQGLHQWHGHXQDYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD;FRQ
GLVWULEXFLyQ FKLFXDGUDGR  OD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD 7 GDGD SRU HO FRFLHQWH HQWUH XQD QRUPDO
HVWiQGDU \ OD UDt] FXDGUDGD GH XQD FKLFXDGUDGR WLSLILFDGD VLJXH XQ PRGHOR GH GLVWULEXFLyQ W GH
6WXGHQWFRQORVPLVPRVJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDGTXHODFKLFXDGUDGR


2EVHUYDU TXH HVWD GLVWULEXFLyQ WLHQH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VLPLODUHV D OD GLVWULEXFLyQ QRUPDO
HVWiQGDU FRPR VH PXHVWUD HQ ODV VLJXLHQWHV JUiILFDV GH OD IXQFLyQ GH GHQVLGDG SDUD DOJXQRV
JUDGRVGHOLEHUWDG Q GI FRPRODVLPHWUtDUHVSHFWRGHODPHGLD\VLH[LVWHQVXVYDORUHVPHGLR\
YDULDQ]DVRQ





\ DGHPiV FRQYHUJH D OD QRUPDO HVWiQGDU SRU OR TXH HO LQWHUpV SULQFLSDO GH HVWH PRGHOR W GH
6WXGHQWVHFHQWUDHQORVSUREOHPDVFRQWDPDxRPXHVWUDOSHTXHxR Q FRPRVHxDOy*RVVHW





2WUDDSOLFDFLyQGHLQWHUpVHQLQIHUHQFLDHVTXHVLHVODPHGLD\6 YDULDQ]DLQVHVJDGDGH
XQD PXHVWUD DOHDWRULD VLPSOH GH WDPDxR Q GH XQD YDULDEOH DOHDWRULD SREODFLRQDO ;N PV 
HQWRQFHV


'LVWULEXFLyQGH)GH6QHGHFRU
6HDQ;H<GRVYDULDEOHVDOHDWRULDVLQGHSHQGLHQWHVFRQGLVWULEXFLRQHVFKLFXDGUDGR; 

H<
ODYDULDEOHDOHDWRULD7GDGDSRUHOFRFLHQWHHQWUHDPEDVFKLFXDGUDGRVWLSLILFDGDVVLJXH
XQPRGHORGHGLVWULEXFLyQ)GH6QHGHFRUFRQJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDG QP 





2EVHUYDUTXHHVWDGLVWULEXFLyQWLHQHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVLPLODUHVDODGLVWULEXFLyQFKLFXDGUDGR
GH3HDUVRQHVVLHPSUHSRVLWLYD\VXVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSULQFLSDOHVVLH[LVWHQVRQ










También podría gustarte