Per: Construccin en progreso | Construction | Peru | Oxford Business Group

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Per: Construccin en progreso

Latin America | 22 Mar 2012

In English El rpido crecimiento econmico de los ltimos aos ha originado un boom en el sector construccin que ha transformado el panorama urbano del Per. Sin embargo, a pesar de la expansin de 75,2% del segmento en los ltimos cinco aos, se estima que el dficit de vivienda todava requiere de una inversin de $13.500 millones en los prximos diez aos para cerrar la brecha, segn la Cmara de Comercio de Lima. sta es una situacin prometedora para las compaas de construccin, especialmente considerando que los fuertes fundamentos macroeconmicos han resultado en un impresionante crecimiento del PBI, a casi un promedio de 7% en el perodo de cinco aos mencionado anteriormente, incluso en medio de un ambiente exgeno dbil. Se espera que el crecimiento econmico siga su trayectoria ascendente, con un promedio de 6,5% del 2011 al 2013, segn las previsiones del Banco Central de Reserva del Per (BCRP). El efecto de este crecimiento en el sector construccin ha sido impresionante, el relativamente bajo nivel de desempleo y el aumento de los sueldos ha sido una pieza fundamental en la expansin del mercado inmobiliario. Ms an, los proyectos de infraestructura patrocinados por el estado de $20.500 millones para los siguientes cinco aos impulsarn incluso ms el desarrollo del sector. Segn la informacin que maneja el Banco Mundial, la proporcin de la poblacin que se encuentra por debajo de la lnea de pobreza se redujo de 44,5% a 31,3% de 2006 a 2010. Entre tanto, la renta nacional bruta per cpita ha aumentado de $2950 a $4700 durante el mismo perodo, un aumento anual promedio de 11,9%. El aumento de poder adquisitivo de la clase media del pas est teniendo un efecto palpable en la compra de una vivienda. El "segmento B" de la poblacin fue responsable de 49% de todas las compras de viviendas en Lima y Callao en 2011, de acuerdo con Gino Layseca, General Gerente de la consultora Tinsa Per. La tendencia del sector se orienta ya no a construir proyectos sociales de 10 o 20 unidades habitacionales, sino hacia los denominados megaproyectos, con 500 o ms viviendas, coment Layseca a la prensa local. Tambin indic que actualmente hay por lo menos 20 proyectos de este tipo en las reas metropolitanas de Lima y Callao, lo que ha reducido los costos de construccin debido a las economas de escala. El reciente auge del sector vivienda se ha centrado principalmente en el desarrollo de viviendas para compradores de medianos y altos ingresos, usualmente excluyendo a compradores de bajos

http://www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com/economic_updates/per%C3%BA-construcci%C3%B3n-en-progreso

3/24/2013

Per: Construccin en progreso | Construction | Peru | Oxford Business Group

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recursos. La Cmara Peruana de la Construccin recientemente observ que slo en el rea de Lima Metropolitana se tuvo un dficit de 394,903 viviendas. Se calcula que alrededor del 58% del dficit total es de viviendas con un valor mximo de slo $ 30.000. Ante la falta de desarrollo del sector privado, en 1998 el Ministerio de Vivienda, Construccin y Saneamiento (MVCS) inici el fondo MiVivienda, que proporciona viviendas econmicas y de bajo costo para los segmentos C, D y E de la poblacin. La Asociacin de Bancos (Asbanc) anunci recientemente que las tasas de inters sobre los prstamos concedidos por MiVivienda se reducira a 5% este ao. La reduccin podra resultar en un aumento del 30% en los prstamos hipotecarios durante todo el ao. De acuerdo con el Plan Estratgico 2008-15 del MVCS, el dficit nacional de vivienda cuantitativo (ciudadanos sin vivienda) fue de 260.927, mientras que el dficit cualitativo de vivienda (aquellos con viviendas inadecuadas) fue de 1,25 millones. Alrededor del 60% del dficit es en las zonas urbanas, y el 21,5% del dficit nacional de viviendas se encuentra slo en Lima, seguida por las ciudades de Piura (7,1%), Cajamarca (7%) y Cusco (5,6%). Tambin se estim que el Per tiene una demanda promedio anual de 200.000 viviendas, un signo muy positivo para el mercado de bienes races. En un futuro cercano, las compaas de construccin tambin tendrn varias oportunidades debido a las grandes inversiones en la red de infraestructura. Existen planes para invertir $20.500 millones en importantes proyectos de infraestructura durante los prximos cinco aos que se enfocarn en la construccin y pavimentacin de la red vial nacional, de los cuales $11.000 millones de la inversin total sern reservados para obras viales. La mayor parte del presupuesto restante, alrededor $8.300 millones, se destinar a la expansin de las redes ferroviarias. El BCRP prev que la industria de la construccin seguir expandindose en 2012 y 2013, registrando un crecimiento del 8,7% y 7,6% , respectivamente. Si bien esta tasa es slo la mitad de la alcanzada en los ltimos cinco aos, las perspectivas a largo plazo para el sector construccin son muy positivas mientras el Per contina cerrando las brechas en sus dficits de vivienda e infraestructura.

Peru: Construction in progress Rapid economic growth in recent years has seen a construction boom that has transformed Peru urban landscape. However, despite the sector expanding 75.2% over the past five years, the housing deficit is still estimated to require $13.5bn worth of investment over the next decade to close the gap, according to the Lima Chamber of Commerce. This bodes well for local construction companies, especially considering strong macroeconomic fundamentals have resulted in impressive GDP growth averaging almost 7% over the same five time period, even amidst a weak exogenous environment. Economic growth is expected to continue its upward trajectory, averaging 6.5% from 2011 to 2013, according to forecasts from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (Banco Central de Reserva del Per, BCRP). The effect of this growth on the construction sector has been remarkable as relatively low unemployment and rising wages have been instrumental in driving the expansion of the real estate market. Furthermore, $20.5bn in government-sponsored infrastructure projects over the next five years will further fuel the sectors development.

http://www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com/economic_updates/per%C3%BA-construcci%C3%B3n-en-progreso

3/24/2013

Per: Construccin en progreso | Construction | Peru | Oxford Business Group

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According to World Bank data, the proportion of the population below the national poverty line fell from 44.5% to 31.3% from 2006 to 2010. Meanwhile, gross national income (GNI) per capita has increased from $2950 to $4700 during the same time period, an average annual increase of 11.9%. The increased spending power of the countrys middle class is having a palpable effect on home buying as the B-segment of the population was responsible for 49% of all home purchases in Lima and Callao in 2011, according to Gino Layseca, the general manager for consulting firm Tinsa The recent tendency of the social housing sector is no longer oriented towards the development of housing projects of 10 or 20 housing units, but towards mega-projects with 500 or more dwellings, Layseca told local press. He also indicated that there are currently at least 20 such projects in the metropolitan areas of Lima and Callao, which have reduced construction costs due to economies of scale. Indeed, the recent housing boom has focused primarily on developing homes for middle- and high income buyers, for the most part excluding low-income homebuyers. The Peruvian Chamber of Construction recently found that the Lima metropolitan area alone had a deficit of 394,903 Some 58% of the total deficit is reckoned to be for homes with a maximum value of just $30,000. In the absence of private sector development, in 1998 the Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation (Ministerio de Vivienda, Construccin y Saneamiento, MVCS) initiated the real estate fund MiVivienda, which supplies economic and low-cost housing for the C, D and E segments of the population. The Association of Banks (Asbanc) recently announced that interest rates on loans provided by MiVivienda would fall to 5% this year. The reduction could potentially result in a 30% increase in mortgage loans throughout the year. According to the 2008-15 Strategic Plan of the MVCS, the national quantitative housing deficit (those citizens without homes) totalled 260,927, while the qualitative housing deficit (those with insufficient housing) was 1.25m. About 60% of the deficit is in urban zones, with 21.5% of the national housing deficit alone found in Lima, which was followed by the cities of Piura (7.1%), Cajamarca (7%) and Cusco (5.6%). It was also estimated that Peru has an average annual demand for 200,000 houses, a very positive sign for the real estate market. Construction companies will also have plenty of opportunities in the near future as a result of massive investments to the infrastructure network. Plans to pour $20.5bn into major infrastructure projects over the next five years will focus on the construction and paving of the national road network, with $11bn of the total investment reserved for road works. The majority of the remaining budget, some $8.3bn, will go towards the expansion of rail networks. The BCRP forecasts the construction industry to continue expanding in 2012 and 2013, posting 8.7% and 7.6% growth, respectively. Although this rate is only half the level seen over the past five long-term prospects for the construction industry look bright as Peru continues to close gaps in its housing and infrastructure deficits.

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3/24/2013

Per: Construccin en progreso | Construction | Peru | Oxford Business Group

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