CUADRO: RESUMEN DE PROYECCIONES DE LA POBLACIN T

METODO O MODELO DE PROYEC

AO

ARITMETICO

GEOMETRICO

2001

34.000

34.000

2015

787.170

787.170

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

840.968
894.766
948.564
1002.361
1056.159
1109.957
1163.755
1217.553
1271.351
1325.149
1378.946

985.234
1233.133
1543.407
1931.752
2417.809
3026.165
3787.593
4740.608
5933.415
7426.350
9294.929

2027

1432.744

11633.671

2028

1486.542

14560.875

2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037

1540.340
1594.138
1647.936
1701.734
1755.531
1809.329
1863.127
1916.925
1970.723

18224.606
22810.187
28549.567
35733.060
44724.027
55977.253
70061.958
87690.584
109754.831

2038

2024.521

137370.770

2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048

2078.319
2132.116
2185.914
2239.712
2293.510
2347.308
2401.106
2454.904
2508.701
2562.499

171935.288
215196.750
269343.435
337114.227
421937.153
528102.782
660981.254
827293.914
1035453.300
1295988.666

2049

2616.297

1622078.584

2050

2670.095

2030217.548

OYECCIONES DE LA POBLACIN TOTAL (RURAL Y URBANO) DE ICA

METODO O MODELO DE PROYECCION POBLACION
DISMINUCION DE LA RATA DE
CRECIMIENTO

CURVA LOGISTICA

POBLACIN

34.000

34.000

34.000

787.170

787.170

787.170

794.007
800.646
807.093
813.352
819.431
825.333
831.063
836.628
842.032
847.278
852.373

794.573
801.809
808.878
815.779
822.513
829.080
835.481
841.717
847.789
853.698
859.447

809.849
832.407
854.845
877.164
899.368
921.457
943.433
965.299
987.057
1008.708
1030.256

857.320

865.037

1051.700

862.124

870.469

1073.045

866.788
871.317
875.715
879.985
884.131
888.158
892.067
895.863
899.549

875.747
880.872
885.846
890.672
895.353
899.892
904.290
908.552
912.679

1094.292
1115.442
1136.499
1157.464
1178.339
1199.126
1219.828
1240.447
1260.984

903.129

916.674

1281.441

906.604
909.979
913.256
916.438
919.527
922.528
925.441
928.269
931.016
933.683

920.541
924.283
927.902
931.402
934.785
938.054
941.213
944.265
947.212
950.057

1301.821
1322.126
1342.357
1362.517
1382.607
1402.630
1422.587
1442.479
1462.310
1482.080

936.273

952.803

1501.791

938.787

955.453

1521.445

CENSO
AO
Habitantes
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Kp =
Ka =
P sat =
Kd =
n=
a=
b=

666.976
676.667
686.254
695.663
704.822
713.692
722.321
730.767
739.087
747.338
755.508
763.558
771.507
779.372
787.170
0.224
53.798
1023.012
0.02941926
7
0.534
-0.041

Chart Title

Chart Title

CUADRO: RESUMEN DE PROYECCIONES DE LA POBLACI

METODO O MODELO DE PR
AO

ARITMETICO

GEOMETRICO

2001

666.976

666.976

2005

704.822

704.822

2006

714.284

714.614

2007
2008

723.745
733.207

724.543
734.609

2009

742.668

744.815

2010
2011
2012
2013

752.130
761.591
771.053
780.514

755.164
765.655
776.293
787.078

2014

789.976

798.014

2015

799.437

809.101

Differencia

12.267

21.931

YECCIONES DE LA POBLACIN TOTAL (RURAL Y URBANO) DE ICA

METODO O MODELO DE PROYECCION POBLACION
DISMINUCION DE LA RATA DE
CRECIMIENTO

CURVA LOGISTICA

POBLACIN

666.976

666.976

666.976

704.822

704.822

704.822

713.538

713.828

713.883

721.975
730.141

722.643
731.265

722.788
731.538

738.046

739.690

740.135

745.698
753.105
760.274
767.214

747.917
755.943
763.769
771.392

748.581
756.880
765.032
773.040

773.931

778.814

780.907

780.433

786.034

788.635

-6.737

-1.136

1.465

CENSO
AO
Habitantes
2001
666.976
2002
2003
2004
2005
2015

Kp =
Ka =
P sat =
Kd =
n=
a=
b=

676.667
686.254
695.663
704.822
787.170

0.014
9.462
976.894
0.03256025
2
0.465
-0.046

Chart Title

Chart Title