Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Calculo Poblacional
Calculo Poblacional
DATOS
AO
1940
1972
1981
1993
POBLACIN
3107
4072
4209
5075
Kc [( P 2 / P1) [1 /( t 2 t1)] ] 1
Kcp
Kc1
Kc2
Kc3
Kc4
Kc4
Kc4
( Kci ti )
ti
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.0084882176
0.00368352
0.0157139724
0.00599568
0
Anulado
Kcp =
0.0086161483
Kcp =
0.007830831
Kcp =
0.0093083462
t1
t2
t3
t4
t4
t4
=
=
=
=
=
=
32
9
12
14
10
Anulado
0.0093083462
Kcp =
0.93
20 AOS
Pf Pi Ka (tf ti)
Pf1
5482
Pf2
5487
30.15625
15.2222222222
72.1666666667
Pf3
5815
Ka4 =
31.642857
Ka4 =
Ka4 =
0
Anulado
Kap =
Kap =
Kap =
35.9850746269
31.2380952381
37.132075
5815
37.13
20
Pf Pi Ka (tf ti)
Pf
6558
Ka
37.132075
Pi
5815
(tf-ti) =
20
AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
POBLACIN
3107
3721
4072
4209
5075
METODO ARITMETICO
7000
6000
5000
POBLACIN
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1940
1961
1972
1981
AOS
1993
2015
2000
1000
0
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
AOS
Pi .e KG ( tf
Pf
Pf1
5471
Pf2
5475
Pf3
ti )
5942
KG1 =
KG2 =
KG3 =
0.0084523953
0.0036767567
0.0155917863
KG4 =
0.0059777822
KG4 =
KG4 =
0
Anulado
KGp =
KGp =
KGp =
0.0085725052
0.0077883952
0.0092579037
5942
0.93
20
Pi .e KG ( tf
Pf
Pf
ti )
7151
KG
0.00925790
Pi
5942
(tf-ti) =
20
AO
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
POBLACIN
3107
3721
4072
4209
5075
METODO GEOMTRICO
8000
7000
6000
2015
METODO GEOMTRICO
8000
7000
6000
POBLACIN
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
AOS
Pf Pi Pi * Ks (tf ti)
Pf1
5466
Pf2
5470
Pf3
6033
Ks1 =
Ks2 =
Ks3 =
0.009705906
0.0037382668
0.0171457987
Ks4 =
0.0062350457
Ks4 =
Ks4 =
0
Anulado
Ksp =
Ksp =
Ksp =
0.0095115465
0.0087298885
0.0103770373
6033
1.04
20
2015
Pf Pi Pi * Ks (tf ti)
Pf
7285
Ks
0.01037704
Pi
6033
(tf-ti) =
20
AO
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
POBLACIN
3107
3721
4072
4209
5075
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
AOS
Pf Pi (1 Kc ) ( tf ti )
Pf1
5471
Pf2
5475
Pf3
5943
Kc [( P 2 / P1) [1 /( t 2 t1)] ] 1
Kc1 =
Kc2 =
Kc3 =
0.0084882176
0.00368352
0.0157139724
Kc4 =
0.0059956848
Kc4 =
Kc4 =
0
Anulado
Kcp =
0.0086161483
Kcp =
0.007830831
Kcp =
0.00930835
2016
5943
0.93
20
Pf Pi (1 Kc ) (tf ti )
Pf
7152
Kc
0.00930835
Pi
5943
(tf-ti) =
20
AO
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
POBLACIN
3107
3721
4072
4209
5075
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1940
1961
1972
1983
1993
AOS
CUADRO RESUMEN
METODO
POBLACION
POBLACION
2015
METODO
MTODO ARITMTICO
MTODO GEOMTRICO
MTODO DE INTERS SIMPLE
MTODO DE INTERS COMPUESTO
ACTUAL
FUTURA
5815
5942
6558
7151
6033
5943
7286
7152
Por lo tanto del cuadro anterior tomaremos como poblacin actual y de diseo a las encontradas por el Mtodo
de Interes Simple, ya que se observa que es la ms crtica de todas.
POBLACION (Hab)
ACTUAL (2016) DISEO (2035)
6033
7286
2007
5518
t1 =
t2 =
t3 =
32
9
12
1993
t4 =
14
t4 =
t4 =
10
Anulado
2015
2035
5815
6558
2015
2035
1993
2015
2035
t1 =
t2 =
t3 =
32
9
12
t4 =
14
t4 =
t4 =
10
Anulado
2015
2035
5942
7151
1993
2015
2035
t1 =
t2 =
t3 =
32
9
12
t4 =
14
t4 =
t4 =
10
Anulado
1993
t 1)]
2016
2035
6033
7286
2016
2035
] 1
t1 =
t2 =
t3 =
32
9
12
t4 =
14
t4 =
t4 =
10
Anulado
1993
2015
2035
5943
7152
2015
2035