Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
BL Observer
BL Observer
CONVENCIONES
DATO DE ENTRADA
CALCULO O RESULTADO (el contenido de estas celdas no se debe alterar)
VERIFICACIONES (el contenido de estas celdas no se debe alterar)
INFORMACION GENERAL
NOMBRE DE LA EMPRESA:
FECHA VALORACIN:
PRIMER AO PROYECTADO:
CIFRAS EN:
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE:
EMPRESA X
Jan-13
2013
MILLONES DE PESOS
SE ASUME EN JULIO DE CADA AO
INDICE
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
BALANCE GENERAL
SUPUESTOS DE PROYECCIN ER Y BALANCE
FLUJO DE TESORERIA
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE OPERACIONAL
SUPUESTOS DE TASA DE DESCUENTO Y PERPETUIDAD
RESULTADOS DE LA VALORACIN
GRAFICOS
BETAS DESAPALANCADOS DE DIVERSOS SECTORES
"ER"
"BALANCE"
"SUPUESTOS PROYECCION"
"TESORERIA"
"FCLO"
"SUPUESTOS VALORACIN"
"VALORACIN"
"GRAFICOS"
"BETAS"
ADVERTENCIA
Banca de Inversin Bancolombia, como gestora del Simulador de Valoracin, no certifica, ni
garantiza expresa o implcitamente, la exactitud de los resultados arrojados por el uso de dicho
Simulador. Igualmente Banca de Inversin Bancolombia manifiesta que la autorizacin para el
uso del presente Simulador de Valoracin no constituye una asesora de ningn tipo, ni se
entender que se ha contratado a dicha entidad para la prestacin de servicios financieros.
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
1 Ventas Netas
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.0
116.6
126.0
136.0
146.9
158.7
171.4
185.1
199.9
215.9
2 Costo de Ventas
Utilidad Bruta
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
64.8
43.2
70.0
46.7
75.6
50.4
81.6
54.4
88.2
58.8
95.2
63.5
102.8
68.6
111.1
74.0
119.9
80.0
129.5
86.4
Margen Bruto
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
3 Gastos de Administracin
4 Gastos de Ventas
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.2
4.3
3.3
4.7
3.5
5.0
3.6
5.4
3.8
5.9
4.0
6.3
4.2
6.9
4.4
7.4
4.7
8.0
4.9
8.6
5 Depreciaciones
6 Amortizaciones
Utilidad Operativa (EBIT)
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.6
0.4
32.7
3.9
0.5
34.3
5.1
0.7
36.1
6.2
0.8
38.4
7.1
1.0
41.1
7.8
1.1
44.3
8.3
1.2
48.0
8.8
1.3
52.1
9.3
1.5
56.6
9.8
1.6
61.5
Margen Operacional
EBITDA
30%
33.0
30%
33.0
30%
33.0
30%
33.0
30%
33.0
30%
35.7
29%
38.7
29%
41.9
28%
45.3
28%
49.1
28%
53.1
28%
57.5
28%
62.2
28%
67.3
28%
72.8
Margen EBITDA
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
34%
34%
34%
34%
7 Ingresos Financieros
8 Otros Ingresos no Operacionales
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
0.4
2.2
1.5
2.3
1.5
2.5
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.2
4.7
3.4
6.1
3.7
7.7
4.0
9.6
4.3
9 Egresos Financieros
10 Otros Egresos no Operacionales
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
6.0
3.2
5.6
3.5
4.9
3.8
4.5
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.8
4.3
5.1
4.3
5.6
4.3
6.0
4.3
6.5
11 Diferencia en Cambio
12 Correccin Monetaria
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
-0.5
-0.8
0.2
-1.3
-0.2
-1.9
0.0
-2.5
0.0
-3.2
0.0
-4.0
0.0
-4.9
0.0
-5.9
0.0
-6.9
0.0
-8.2
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
24.7
27.9
29.4
31.7
34.4
37.8
41.8
46.2
51.1
56.5
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
8.2
16.6
9.2
18.7
9.7
19.7
10.5
21.2
11.4
23.1
12.5
25.3
13.8
28.0
15.3
31.0
16.9
34.2
18.6
37.8
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
15%
16%
16%
16%
16%
16%
16%
17%
17%
18%
BALANCE
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
ACTIVOS
1
ACTIVOS CORRIENTES
Disponible
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.8
7.3
7.9
8.6
9.3
10.0
10.8
2
3
Inversiones Temporales
Cuentas por Cobrar (Deudores)
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
23.7
2.2
24.8
2.3
27.9
2.5
43.5
2.7
62.4
2.9
85.1
3.2
112.8
3.4
144.8
3.7
181.5
4.0
223.2
4.3
4
5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
6
7
Pagos x Anticipado
Otros Activos Corrientes
Activos Corrientes
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.2
0.0
37.8
2.3
0.0
40.0
2.5
0.0
44.4
2.7
0.0
61.2
2.9
0.0
81.6
3.2
0.0
105.8
3.4
0.0
135.2
3.7
0.0
169.0
4.0
0.0
207.6
4.3
0.0
251.4
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
37.0
5.6
49.0
9.5
61.0
14.6
73.0
20.7
85.0
27.8
97.0
35.5
109.0
43.8
121.0
52.5
133.0
61.8
145.0
71.5
10
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
31.4
5.1
39.5
6.2
46.5
7.5
52.3
8.9
57.3
10.3
61.5
11.9
65.3
13.6
68.5
15.5
71.3
17.5
73.5
19.6
11
Amortizacin Acumulada
Diferidos e Intangibles, neto
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.4
4.7
0.9
5.3
1.6
5.9
2.4
6.5
3.4
7.0
4.4
7.5
5.6
8.0
7.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
10.0
9.6
12
13
Otros Activos
Valorizaciones
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.4
2.0
5.8
2.0
6.3
2.0
6.8
2.0
7.3
2.0
7.9
2.0
8.6
2.0
9.3
2.0
10.0
2.0
10.8
2.0
14
Inversiones
Activo Largo Plazo
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
47.5
4.0
56.7
4.0
64.7
4.0
71.6
4.0
77.6
4.0
82.9
4.0
87.8
4.0
92.3
4.0
96.3
4.0
99.9
Total Activos
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
85.2
96.7
109.1
132.8
159.2
188.7
223.0
261.3
303.9
351.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
PASIVOS
14
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
Obligaciones Fin. de Corto Plazo
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15
16
Proveedores
Impuestos y Retenciones
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
8.2
1.2
9.2
1.3
9.7
1.4
10.5
1.5
11.4
1.6
12.5
1.7
13.8
1.9
15.3
2.0
16.9
2.2
18.6
17
18
Dividendos x Pagar
Otros Acreedores
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.0
0.0
2.2
19
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.1
11.4
1.2
12.7
1.3
13.5
1.4
14.5
1.5
15.8
1.6
17.2
1.7
18.9
1.9
20.8
2.0
22.9
2.2
25.1
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
26.4
0.0
26.4
16.7
0.0
16.7
6.7
0.0
6.7
5.7
0.0
5.7
4.6
0.0
4.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
Total Pasivos
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
37.8
29.4
20.1
20.2
20.4
20.8
22.5
24.4
26.5
28.7
PATRIMONIO
22
23
Capital
Reservas
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
3.9
5.0
5.6
5.0
7.4
5.0
9.4
5.0
11.5
5.0
13.8
5.0
16.4
5.0
19.2
5.0
22.3
5.0
25.7
24
25
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.8
18.1
3.1
33.0
5.0
49.8
7.5
67.5
10.6
86.6
14.4
107.4
18.9
130.2
24.3
155.4
30.6
183.3
38.0
214.1
26
27
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
16.6
2.0
18.7
2.0
19.7
2.0
21.2
2.0
23.1
2.0
25.3
2.0
28.0
2.0
31.0
2.0
34.2
2.0
37.8
2.0
Total Patrimonio
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
47.4
67.4
88.9
112.6
138.8
167.9
200.5
236.8
277.4
322.6
Pasivos y Patrimonio
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
85.2
96.7
109.1
132.8
159.2
188.7
223.0
261.3
303.9
351.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Check
SUPUESTOS DE PROYECCION
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
7.7%
2.0%
3.2%
3.7%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
5.6%
3.5%
1.3%
1.7%
9.0%
4.0%
4.4%
5.9%
4.0%
4.0%
3.6%
4.41%
3.4%
4.45%
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
4.50%
3.4%
4.49%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
SUPUESTOS MACROECONMICOS
11.36%
-5.26%
-8.89%
9.46%
-6.37%
-11.82%
1.50%
-2.72%
-8.98%
-2.62%
0.67%
1.97%
1.91%
-3.22%
-3.36%
-4.00%
-1.65%
-0.94%
-2.7%
2.8%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
2,244
1,967
2,044
2,153
1,914
1,899
1,943
1,847
1,768
1,799
1,780
1,834
1,814
1,775
1,753
1,704
1,724
1,688
1,677
1,735
1,590
1,630
1,608
1,649
1,627
1,668
1,646
1,687
1,665
1,707
9.70%
6.25%
6.14%
8.01%
3.66%
9.70%
4.35%
3.66%
5.27%
4.35%
4.85%
5.62%
4.61%
5.31%
4.42%
5.35%
4.74%
5.04%
4.3%
4.9%
4.3%
5.0%
4.3%
5.0%
4.3%
5.0%
4.3%
5.0%
4.3%
5.0%
5.25%
1.45
0.71%
4.25%
1.40
1.91%
0.25%
1.34
1.68%
0.25%
1.30
3.08%
0.25%
1.26
1.58%
0.25%
1.23
1.83%
0.25%
1.29
1.74%
0.75%
1.31
1.91%
1.00%
1.32
2.11%
1.3%
1.36
1.8%
1.8%
1.36
1.8%
1.8%
1.36
1.8%
1.8%
1.36
1.8%
1.8%
1.36
1.8%
1.8%
1.36
1.8%
Control
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100
100
0%
100
0%
100
0%
100
0%
108
8%
117
8%
126
8%
136
8%
147
8%
159
8%
171
8%
185
8%
200
8%
216
8%
2 Costo de Ventas
Costo de Ventas/Ventas Netas
3 Gastos de Administracin
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
65
60%
3
70
60%
3
76
60%
3
82
60%
4
88
60%
4
95
60%
4
103
60%
4
111
60%
4
120
60%
5
130
60%
5
3
0%
3
0%
3
0%
3
0%
3
5%
3
5%
3
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
5
5%
5
5%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
5
4%
0
5
4%
0
5
4%
0
6
4%
0
6
4%
0
7
4%
0
7
4%
0
8
4%
0
9
4%
5 Depreciaciones
Depreciaciones Activos Histricos
3
2
4
2
5
2
6
2
7
2
8
2
8
2
9
2
9
2
10
2
1
0
0
2
1
0
3
1
0
4
1
0
5
1
0
6
1
0
6
1
0
7
1
0
7
1
0
8
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
0
2
1
3
1
3
1
5
1
6
1
8
1
10
31
5%
2
34
5%
3
50
5%
3
70
5%
3
93
5%
3
121
5%
3
154
5%
4
191
5%
4
234
5%
4
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
29
5%
2
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
7.0
3.0
8.4%
8.0%
4.0
3.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
4.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Amortizacion en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual en USD (E.A)
Tasa de Inters (N.A.S.V)
1
6.1%
6.0%
1
6.1%
6.0%
1
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
9
1
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
Spread (E.A)
Intereses Pagados en MM Pesos
Deuda Nueva Largo Plazo en USD
3.0%
0
3.0%
1
3.0%
1
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
5
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
4
1
4
2
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Amortizacion en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual en USD
2
6.1%
4
6.1%
3
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
9 Egresos Financieros
15.0
Saldo en MM Pesos
Amortizacin en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual (E.A)
Tasa de Inters (T.A)
10.0
Spread (E.A)
Intereses Pagados en MM Pesos
D. LEASING
Intereses Leasing Financiero Actual
Intereses Leasing Financiero Nuevo
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
-1
3
3%
0
4
3%
0
4
3%
0
4
3%
0
5
3%
0
5
3%
0
6
3%
0
6
3%
0
6
3%
0
12 Correccin Monetaria
AXI Activos
-1
0
-1
0
-2
0
-3
0
-3
0
-4
0
-5
0
-6
0
-7
0
-8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
8
AXI
AXI
AXI
AXI
PPE Histrico
PPE Nuevo
Depreciacin Acumulada PPE histrica
Depreciacin Acumulada Inversiones Nuevas
AXI Inventario
AXI Patrimonio
13 Impuesto de Renta
Tarifa Impuesto de Renta
Renta Lquida
Utilidad antes de Impuestos
Deducciones, otros ajustes
Renta Presuntiva
Patrimonio Ajustado por Valorizaciones Ao Anterior
% Aplicado a Patrimonio Ajustado
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
10
10
10
10
10
33.0%
8
33.0%
25
25
9
33.0%
28
28
10
33.0%
29
29
10
33.0%
32
32
11
33.0%
34
34
12
33.0%
38
38
14
33.0%
42
42
15
33.0%
46
46
17
33.0%
51
51
19
33.0%
56
56
0
2
28
6.0%
0
1
45
3.0%
0
2
65
3.0%
0
3
87
3.0%
0
3
111
3.0%
0
4
137
3.0%
0
5
166
3.0%
0
6
198
3.0%
0
7
235
3.0%
0
8
275
3.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
Disponible
Das de Ventas Netas
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
6
18
6
18
7
18
7
18
8
18
9
18
9
18
10
18
11
18
3
4
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
4
7
4
4
7
4
4
7
4
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
4
7
4
7
4
7
4
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
2
12
0
2
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
4
12
0
4
12
0
4
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
25
25
25
25
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
109
121
133
145
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
0
12
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
10
10
1%
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
10
Opcin 1: Inversiones en Millones de Pesos
Depreciacin Acumulada
15
21
28
36
44
53
62
72
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
20%
ok
8%
28%
ok
8%
36%
ok
8%
44%
ok
8%
52%
ok
8%
60%
ok
8%
68%
ok
8%
76%
ok
8%
84%
ok
8%
92%
ok
1
0
1
2
0
2
6
0
3
10
0
4
15
0
5
21
0
6
27
0
6
34
0
7
41
0
7
49
0
8
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
4
3
2
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
1
ok
10
12
14
15
17
20
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
1
0
2
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
8
0
10
0
11
0
13
0
16
0
1
10
1%
50%
1
10
1%
50%
1
10
1%
50%
1
10
1%
50%
1
10
1%
50%
2
10
1%
50%
2
10
1%
50%
2
10
1%
50%
2
10
1%
50%
2
10
1%
50%
10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
8%
8%
ok
8%
16%
ok
8%
24%
ok
8%
32%
ok
8%
40%
ok
8%
48%
ok
8%
56%
ok
8%
64%
ok
8%
72%
ok
8%
80%
ok
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
3
0
4
0
6
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
0
0
ok
11
Otros Activos
12
% Ventas Netas
Valorizaciones
Incremento Valorizaciones
13
Inversiones
Incremento Inversiones
10
11
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
PASIVOS
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
15
Proveedores
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
8
6
9
6
10
6
10
6
11
6
12
6
14
6
15
6
17
6
19
Dividendos x Pagar
Dividendos Pagados
Otros Acreedores
18
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
19
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
2
6
2
6
2
6
2
6
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
26
0
17
0
7
0
6
0
5
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
0
4
0
6
0
7
0
9
0
12
0
14
0
16
0
19
0
22
0
26
2
10%
2
2
10%
3
2
10%
5
2
10%
7
2
10%
11
2
10%
14
3
10%
19
3
10%
24
3
10%
31
3
10%
38
16
17
22
23
Capitalizaciones
Reservas
24
Incremento de reserva
% de Utilidad Neta Ao Anterior
Revalorizacin del Patrimonio
25
Utilidades Retenidas
Dividendos pagados
18
0
33
0
50
0
68
0
87
0
107
0
130
0
155
0
183
0
214
0
26
19
19
19
19
19
17
19
20
21
23
25
28
31
34
38
TESORERIA
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
UTILIDAD NETA
16.6
18.7
19.7
21.2
23.1
25.3
28.0
31.0
34.2
37.8
VARIACIN DE ACTIVOS
ACTIVOS CORRIENTES
-0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
1
3
Disponible
Cuentas por Cobrar (Deudores)
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
5
6
Inventarios
Pagos x Anticipado
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.0
10.5
12.0
-2.6
1.1
-0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
9.2
12.0
-3.9
1.2
-0.5
0.4
0.0
0.0
8.0
12.0
-5.1
1.3
-0.7
0.5
0.0
0.0
6.9
12.0
-6.2
1.4
-0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
-7.1
1.5
-1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
5.3
12.0
-7.8
1.6
-1.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
4.9
12.0
-8.3
1.7
-1.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
4.5
12.0
-8.8
1.9
-1.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
4.0
12.0
-9.3
2.0
-1.5
0.7
0.0
0.0
3.6
12.0
-9.8
2.2
-1.6
0.8
0.0
VARIACIN DE PASIVOS
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
Obligaciones Fin. de Corto Plazo
Proveedores
Impuestos y Retenciones
Dividendos x Pagar
Otros Acreedores
Otros Pasivos Corrientes
PASIVOS LARGO PLAZO
Obligaciones Fin. de Largo Plazo
Otros Pasivos de Largo Plazo
4.4
-2.0
0.1
7.2
-1.0
0.1
0.1
9.4
11.4
-2.0
1.3
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-9.8
-9.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
-10.0
-10.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
PATRIMONIO
Capital
Revalorizacin del Patrimonio
Dividendos
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.9
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.5
0.0
3.1
0.0
3.1
0.0
3.8
0.0
3.8
0.0
4.6
0.0
4.6
0.0
5.4
0.0
5.4
0.0
6.3
0.0
6.3
0.0
7.4
0.0
7.4
0.0
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
25
21.7
1.1
3.2
15.5
19.0
22.7
27.7
32.0
36.6
41.8
Caja Inicial
Crdito de Tesorera
2.0
0.0
23.7
0.0
24.8
0.0
27.9
0.0
43.5
0.0
62.4
0.0
85.1
0.0
112.8
0.0
144.8
0.0
181.5
0.0
Caja Final
23.7
24.8
27.9
43.5
62.4
85.1
112.8
144.8
181.5
223.2
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
30.0
32.7
9.9
22.8
34.3
10.8
23.5
36.1
11.3
24.8
38.4
11.9
26.4
41.1
12.7
28.4
44.3
13.6
30.7
48.0
14.6
33.4
52.1
15.8
36.3
56.6
17.2
39.4
61.5
18.7
42.8
3.0
25.8
4.4
27.9
5.8
30.6
7.0
33.4
8.0
36.4
8.8
39.6
9.4
42.9
10.1
46.4
10.7
50.1
11.3
54.2
-6.2
1.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-7.3
-0.1
-7.2
-0.1
-0.1
1.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.2
-0.1
-1.0
-0.1
0.5
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.7
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
0.4
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.0
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
0.3
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.1
-0.1
-0.9
-0.1
0.2
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-0.1
-1.1
-0.1
0.1
1.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.6
-0.1
-1.3
-0.1
0.1
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.7
-0.1
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
1.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.9
-0.1
-1.6
-0.1
0.0
2.1
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.1
-0.2
-1.8
-0.2
12.0
0.4
12.0
0.4
12.0
0.5
12.0
0.5
12.0
0.5
12.0
0.6
12.0
0.6
12.0
0.7
12.0
0.7
12.0
0.8
19.6
15.5
17.6
20.6
23.6
26.8
30.1
33.6
37.3
41.4
-21.0%
ok
13.1%
alto
17.0%
alto
14.7%
alto
13.6%
alto
12.6%
alto
11.5%
alto
11.1%
alto
10.8%
alto
7.9%
33.2%
9.6%
21.6%
9.3%
22.0%
9.0%
23.3%
8.7%
24.5%
8.4%
25.9%
8.1%
27.4%
8.1%
29.5%
8.1%
31.7%
1
3
4
5
6
15
16
18
INDICADORES
Crecimiento FCLO real
Check crecimiento FCLO
Crecimiento FCLO mximo terico
Retorno de Capital Invertido Nuevo
NOPLAT ajustado = Flujo de Caja Bruto
Capital Invertido
Tasa de Inversin ( Capital Invertido/NOPLAT ajustado)
6.2
24%
2.1
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
12.4
44%
13.0
43%
12.9
38%
12.8
35%
12.8
32%
12.7
30%
12.7
27%
12.8
25%
12.8
24%
0
41
11
25
5
56%
43%
37%
33%
30%
28%
27%
27%
26%
26%
23
54
12
37
5
24
68
13
49
6
25
81
14
61
6
26
95
15
73
7
28
109
16
85
7
31
122
18
97
8
33
137
19
109
9
36
151
20
121
9
39
165
22
133
10
43
180
24
145
11
SUPUESTOS DE VALORACIN
EMPRESA X
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
1.11
0.81
1.11
0.81
0.94
0.81
0.85
0.81
0.83
0.81
0.82
0.81
0.82
0.81
0.82
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
57%
33%
6.2%
56%
33%
6.2%
25%
33%
6.2%
7%
33%
6.2%
5%
33%
6.2%
3%
33%
6.2%
2%
33%
6.2%
2%
33%
6.2%
2%
33%
6.2%
1%
33%
6.2%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.1%
10.9%
0.9%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
10.9%
1.2%
12.3%
8.9%
12.3%
9.0%
12.1%
8.9%
11.9%
8.7%
12.2%
9.0%
12.2%
9.0%
12.2%
9.0%
12.2%
9.0%
12.2%
9.0%
12.2%
9.0%
8.8%
5.6%
8.5%
5.3%
8.5%
5.4%
8.2%
5.0%
8.1%
4.9%
8.1%
5.0%
8.1%
5.0%
8.1%
5.0%
8.1%
5.0%
8.1%
5.0%
Spread (EA)
Beneficio Tributario
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
3.0%
33.0%
5.9%
5.7%
5.7%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
3.1%
3.5%
3.8%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
1.1%
2.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.8%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
Beneficio Tributario
Costo Promedio Deuda en USD, en Pesos, con Beneficio Tributario (E.A.)
33.0%
2.1%
33.0%
2.4%
33.0%
2.6%
33.0%
2.7%
33.0%
2.9%
33.0%
2.9%
33.0%
2.9%
33.0%
2.9%
33.0%
2.9%
33.0%
2.9%
3. ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Patrimonio
Deuda en Pesos
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
Deuda en USD
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
9.9%
9.7%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
1. COSTO DE PATRIMONIO
(Promedio Mercado)
2. COSTO DEUDA
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
Puntaje
Menor
0-4 Riesgo >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mayor Riesgo
Tamao de la compaa
Acceso a capital patrimonial
1
1
0
Multinacional
Transa en Bolsa
1
Muy grande
Grupo Ec.
2
Grande
S.A.
3
Mediana
Limitada
4
Pequea
Unipersonal
0
1
Muy fcil
Monopolio
Fcil
Oligopolio
Dificil
Lider
Muy Dificil
Medio
Imposible
Pequeo
Nivel de la gerencia
Dependencia de empleados claves
0
2
Muy preparado
Atomizacin
Experiencial
nico gerente
0
2
Disponibilidad ilimitada
Muy flexible
No disponibilidad
Rigidez absoluta
Produccin propia
Concentracin proveedores
Concentracin de clientes
0
2
2
100%
Atomizacin
Atomizacin
0%
Unico proveedor
Unico cliente
1
2
Alta
Cobertura ilimitada
Nula
Dificil cobertura
0
0
SI Integrado
Permanente
Informacin manual
Inexistente
Sistemas de Calidad
Riesgo geogrfico
0
4
Certificado
Zona de alta seguridad
No existente
Zona de baja seguridad
0
4.80%
Certificado
No existente
1.2%
0.0%
3.0%
VALORACIN
EMPRESA X
Fecha Valoracin:
31 de Marzo 2013
2013p
2014p
20
2015p
16
2016p
18
2017p
21
2018p
24
2019p
27
2020p
30
2021p
34
2022p
37
41
615
Costo de Capital
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Factor de Descuento
Valor Presente Flujo de Caja Libre Anual
1.02
19
1.13
14
1.24
14
1.36
15
1.49
16
1.64
16
1.80
17
1.98
17
2.18
17
2.40
17
162
256
419
2
11
432
21
411
MULTIPLOS DE VALORACIN
2013p
13.7x
8.7x
4.3x
14.4x
4.0x
13.2x
13.1x
12.1x
9.0%
180.0
8.0%
160.0
7.0%
140.0
6.0%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
VENTAS NETAS
200.0
120.0
5.0%
100.0
4.0%
80.0
3.0%
60.0
2.0%
40.0
1.0%
20.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022p
0.0%
EBITDA
100
20%
90
10%
80
0%
70
-10%
60
-20%
50
-30%
40
-40%
30
-50%
20
-60%
10
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022p
-70%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
0.0
MARGEN
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013p 2014p
2016p
Margen Operacional
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
Margen EBITDA
20%
180
15%
160
10%
140
5%
120
0%
100
-5%
80
-10%
60
-15%
40
-20%
20
0
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2022p
-25%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
Margen Bruto
2015p
Beta Desapalancado
1 (Promedio Mercado)
0.81
2 Advertising
3 Aerospace/Defense
1.24
0.92
4 Air Transport
5 Apparel
0.56
0.85
0.93
7 Auto Parts
8 Bank
1.06
0.46
9 Banks (Regional)
10 Beverage
0.33
0.77
11 Beverage (Alcoholic)
0.79
12 Biotechnology
13 Broadcasting
1.15
1.18
14
15
16
17
18
0.67
0.70
0.85
1.20
0.76
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Chemical (Diversified)
Chemical (Specialty)
Coal & Related Energy
Computer Services
Computer Software
Computers/Peripherals
Construction
Diversified
1.09
0.83
1.02
0.97
1.19
0.65
0.74
0.64
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
Educational Services
Electrical Equipment
Electronics
Electronics (Consumer & Office)
Engineering
Entertainment
Environmental & Waste Services
Farming/Agriculture
Financial Svcs.
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insu
Food Processing
Food Wholesalers
Furn/Home Furnishings
Healthcare Equipment
Healthcare Facilities
Healthcare Products
Healthcare Services
Heathcare Information and Techn
Heavy Construction
Homebuilding
Hotel/Gaming
Household Products
Information Services
1.14
0.85
0.75
0.82
0.73
1.24
1.06
0.72
0.48
0.52
0.71
0.60
0.78
1.18
0.51
0.89
0.80
1.22
0.84
0.81
0.89
0.83
1.16
Sector
Beta Desapalancado
50 Insurance (General)
51 Insurance (Life)
0.51
0.51
52 Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
53 Internet software and services
0.64
1.02
54 Investment Co.
0.48
55 Machinery
56 Metals & Mining
0.87
1.07
0.75
1.01
1.29
60 Oil/Gas Distribution
61 Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
0.70
0.98
0.66
0.63
0.88
65 Power
66 Precious Metals
0.52
1.18
67
68
69
70
71
0.69
NA
0.69
0.72
0.75
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
0.65
0.78
0.84
0.78
0.56
0.54
0.65
0.79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
0.75
1.19
1.04
0.72
0.96
1.00
0.61
0.89
0.78
0.70
1.02
0.71
0.55
0.52
0.63
0.58
0.23
0.60