Demanda

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Semanas

Demandad

Pronostico

Error

Error
Adsoluto

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96
125
118
97

102.67
112.00
99.67
92.33
102.00
108.33
113.33
89.67
120.00
119.00
135.33
114.67
115.33
120.00
101.33
90.00
87.33
99.67
103.33
101.00
101.00
97.33
99.00
104.00
113.67
111.67
100.00
110.00
109.00
114.33
104.00
104.67
111.33
113.00

-10.67
-32.00
5.33
28.67
-3.00
11.67
-63.33
100.33
-3.00
-20.00
-7.33
4.33
-2.33
-48.00
-16.33
15.00
21.67
-3.67
-5.33
8.00
-16.00
5.67
25.00
10.00
-16.67
-22.67
44.00
-16.00
-4.00
-1.33
-8.00
20.33
6.67
-16.00

10.67
32.00
5.33
28.67
3.00
11.67
63.33
100.33
3.00
20.00
7.33
4.33
2.33
48.00
16.33
15.00
21.67
3.67
5.33
8.00
16.00
5.67
25.00
10.00
16.67
22.67
44.00
16.00
4.00
1.33
8.00
20.33
6.67
16.00

47
48
49
50

135
147
110
103

DESV.
ESTANDAR
DEMANDA

22.39

DEMANDA
PROMEDIO

107.06

CV

113.33
116.67
126.33
130.67

20.92%

21.67
30.33
-16.33
-27.67

21.67
30.33
16.33
27.67
18.90
MAD

Error Cuadratico

APE

APE`

113.78
1024.00
28.44
821.78
9.00
136.11
4011.11
10066.78
9.00
400.00
53.78
18.78
5.44
2304.00
266.78
225.00
469.44
13.44
28.44
64.00
256.00
32.11
625.00
100.00
277.78
513.78
1936.00
256.00
16.00
1.78
64.00
413.44
44.44
256.00

11.59%
40.00%
5.08%
23.69%
3.03%
9.72%
126.67%
52.81%
2.56%
20.20%
5.73%
3.64%
2.06%
66.67%
19.22%
14.29%
19.88%
3.82%
5.44%
7.34%
18.82%
5.50%
20.16%
8.77%
17.18%
25.47%
30.56%
17.02%
3.81%
1.18%
8.33%
16.27%
5.65%
16.49%

10.39%
28.57%
5.35%
31.05%
2.94%
10.77%
55.88%
111.90%
2.50%
16.81%
5.42%
3.78%
2.02%
40.00%
16.12%
16.67%
24.81%
3.68%
5.16%
7.92%
15.84%
5.82%
25.25%
9.62%
14.66%
20.30%
44.00%
14.55%
3.67%
1.17%
7.69%
19.43%
5.99%
14.16%

469.44
920.11
266.78
765.44
717.98
ECM

16.05%
20.63%
14.85%
26.86%
18.87%
MAPE

19.12%
26.00%
12.93%
21.17%
17.98%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96
125
118
97

101.67
96.67
94.00
97.50
107.00
104.00
102.83
95.83
114.17
116.17
112.50
117.33
117.17
127.67
108.00
102.67
103.67
100.50
96.67
94.17
100.33
100.33
100.00
102.50
105.50
105.33
102.00
111.83
110.33
107.17
107.00
106.83
112.83
108.50

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-9.67
-16.67
11.00
23.50
-8.00
16.00
-52.83
94.17
2.83
-17.17
15.50
1.67
-4.17
-55.67
-23.00
2.33
5.33
-4.50
1.33
14.83
-15.33
2.67
24.00
11.50
-8.50
-16.33
42.00
-17.83
-5.33
5.83
-11.00
18.17
5.17
-11.50

9.67
16.67
11.00
23.50
8.00
16.00
52.83
94.17
2.83
17.17
15.50
1.67
4.17
55.67
23.00
2.33
5.33
4.50
1.33
14.83
15.33
2.67
24.00
11.50
8.50
16.33
42.00
17.83
5.33
5.83
11.00
18.17
5.17
11.50

93.44
277.78
121.00
552.25
64.00
256.00
2791.36
8867.36
8.03
294.69
240.25
2.78
17.36
3098.78
529.00
5.44
28.44
20.25
1.78
220.03
235.11
7.11
576.00
132.25
72.25
266.78
1764.00
318.03
28.44
34.03
121.00
330.03
26.69
132.25

47
48
49
50

135
147
110
103

DESV.
ESTANDAR
DEMANDA

22.39

DEMANDA
PROMEDIO

107.06

CV

20.92%

109.00
114.00
119.67
122.00

26.00
33.00
-9.67
-19.00

26.00
33.00
9.67
19.00
17.45
MAD

676.00
1089.00
93.44
361.00
625.09
ECM

APE

APE`

10.51%
20.83%
10.48%
19.42%
8.08%
13.33%
105.67%
49.56%
2.42%
17.34%
12.11%
1.40%
3.69%
77.31%
27.06%
2.22%
4.89%
4.69%
1.36%
13.61%
18.04%
2.59%
19.35%
10.09%
8.76%
18.35%
29.17%
18.97%
5.08%
5.16%
11.46%
14.53%
4.38%
11.86%

9.51%
17.24%
11.70%
24.10%
7.48%
15.38%
51.38%
98.26%
2.48%
14.78%
13.78%
1.42%
3.56%
43.60%
21.30%
2.27%
5.14%
4.48%
1.38%
15.75%
15.28%
2.66%
24.00%
11.22%
8.06%
15.51%
41.18%
15.95%
4.83%
5.44%
10.28%
17.00%
4.58%
10.60%

19.26%
22.45%
8.79%
18.45%
17.18%
MAPE

23.85%
28.95%
8.08%
15.57%
16.53%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96
125
118
97

101.22
101.67
97.89
98.56
98.44
98.78
102.78
101.22
109.33
108.22
109.00
114.33
115.89
115.00
112.00
108.11
114.22
105.22
102.89
102.78
100.67
96.89
95.78
101.56
104.78
103.89
101.67
107.00
106.56
106.11
109.22
108.44
108.56
109.00

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-9.22
-21.67
7.11
22.44
0.56
21.22
-52.78
88.78
7.67
-9.22
19.00
4.67
-2.89
-43.00
-27.00
-3.11
-5.22
-9.22
-4.89
6.22
-15.67
6.11
28.22
12.44
-7.78
-14.89
42.33
-13.00
-1.56
6.89
-13.22
16.56
9.44
-12.00

9.22
21.67
7.11
22.44
0.56
21.22
52.78
88.78
7.67
9.22
19.00
4.67
2.89
43.00
27.00
3.11
5.22
9.22
4.89
6.22
15.67
6.11
28.22
12.44
7.78
14.89
42.33
13.00
1.56
6.89
13.22
16.56
9.44
12.00

85.05
469.44
50.57
503.75
0.31
450.38
2785.49
7881.49
58.78
85.05
361.00
21.78
8.35
1849.00
729.00
9.68
27.27
85.05
23.90
38.72
245.44
37.35
796.49
154.86
60.49
221.68
1792.11
169.00
2.42
47.46
174.83
274.09
89.20
144.00

47
48
49
50

135
147
110
103

109.00
114.11
114.44
116.22

26.00
32.89
-4.44
-13.22

26.00
32.89
4.44
13.22
16.91
MAD

676.00
1081.68
19.75
174.83
570.68
ECM

APE

APE`

10.02%
27.08%
6.77%
18.55%
0.56%
17.69%
105.56%
46.73%
6.55%
9.32%
14.84%
3.92%
2.56%
59.72%
31.76%
2.96%
4.79%
9.61%
4.99%
5.71%
18.43%
5.93%
22.76%
10.92%
8.02%
16.73%
29.40%
13.83%
1.48%
6.10%
13.77%
13.24%
8.00%
12.37%

9.11%
21.31%
7.26%
22.77%
0.56%
21.48%
51.35%
87.71%
7.01%
8.52%
17.43%
4.08%
2.49%
37.39%
24.11%
2.88%
4.57%
8.76%
4.75%
6.05%
15.56%
6.31%
29.47%
12.25%
7.42%
14.33%
41.64%
12.15%
1.46%
6.49%
12.11%
15.27%
8.70%
11.01%

19.26%
22.37%
4.04%
12.84%
16.56%
MAPE

23.85%
28.82%
3.88%
11.38%
16.10%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96
125
118
97

103.92
103.92
100.00
99.00
101.75
100.50
102.25
96.25
104.08
106.83
109.75
110.67
110.00
111.75
111.08
109.42
108.08
108.92
106.92
110.92
104.17
101.50
101.83
101.50
101.08
99.75
101.17
106.08
105.17
104.83
106.25
106.08
107.42
110.17

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-11.92
-23.92
5.00
22.00
-2.75
19.50
-52.25
93.75
12.92
-7.83
18.25
8.33
3.00
-39.75
-26.08
-4.42
0.92
-12.92
-8.92
-1.92
-19.17
1.50
22.17
12.50
-4.08
-10.75
42.83
-12.08
-0.17
8.17
-10.25
18.92
10.58
-13.17

11.92
23.92
5.00
22.00
2.75
19.50
52.25
93.75
12.92
7.83
18.25
8.33
3.00
39.75
26.08
4.42
0.92
12.92
8.92
1.92
19.17
1.50
22.17
12.50
4.08
10.75
42.83
12.08
0.17
8.17
10.25
18.92
10.58
13.17

142.01
572.01
25.00
484.00
7.56
380.25
2730.06
8789.06
166.84
61.36
333.06
69.44
9.00
1580.06
680.34
19.51
0.84
166.84
79.51
3.67
367.36
2.25
491.36
156.25
16.67
115.56
1834.69
146.01
0.03
66.69
105.06
357.84
112.01
173.36

47
48
49
50

135
147
110
103

109.67
110.58
113.33
114.42

25.33
36.42
-3.33
-11.42

25.33
36.42
3.33
11.42
16.82
MAD

641.78
1326.17
11.11
130.34
588.29
ECM

APE

APE`

12.95%
29.90%
4.76%
18.18%
2.78%
16.25%
104.50%
49.34%
11.04%
7.91%
14.26%
7.00%
2.65%
55.21%
30.69%
4.21%
0.84%
13.45%
9.10%
1.76%
22.55%
1.46%
17.88%
10.96%
4.21%
12.08%
29.75%
12.85%
0.16%
7.23%
10.68%
15.13%
8.97%
13.57%

11.47%
23.02%
5.00%
22.22%
2.70%
19.40%
51.10%
97.40%
12.41%
7.33%
16.63%
7.53%
2.73%
35.57%
23.48%
4.04%
0.85%
11.86%
8.34%
1.73%
18.40%
1.48%
21.77%
12.32%
4.04%
10.78%
42.34%
11.39%
0.16%
7.79%
9.65%
17.83%
9.85%
11.95%

18.77%
24.77%
3.03%
11.08%
16.37%
MAPE

23.10%
32.93%
2.94%
9.98%
16.14%
MAPE`

N
3
6
9
12

MAD
18.90
17.45
16.91
16.82

ECM
717.98
625.09
570.68
588.29

MAPE
18.87%
17.18%
16.56%
16.37%

MAPE`
17.98%
16.53%
16.10%
16.14%

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96
125
118
97

103.92
103.80
103.56
103.57
103.75
103.70
103.86
103.33
104.19
104.32
104.27
104.50
104.65
104.73
104.41
104.21
104.22
104.27
104.18
104.12
104.17
103.98
103.97
104.17
104.27
104.20
104.04
104.44
104.34
104.35
104.43
104.35
104.55
104.69

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-11.92
-23.80
1.44
17.43
-4.75
16.30
-53.86
86.67
12.81
-5.32
23.73
14.50
8.35
-32.73
-19.41
0.79
4.78
-8.27
-6.18
4.88
-19.17
-0.98
20.03
9.83
-7.27
-15.20
39.96
-10.44
0.66
8.65
-8.43
20.65
13.45
-7.69

11.92
23.80
1.44
17.43
4.75
16.30
53.86
86.67
12.81
5.32
23.73
14.50
8.35
32.73
19.41
0.79
4.78
8.27
6.18
4.88
19.17
0.98
20.03
9.83
7.27
15.20
39.96
10.44
0.66
8.65
8.43
20.65
13.45
7.69

142.01
566.32
2.07
303.67
22.55
265.67
2901.30
7512.54
164.05
28.30
563.27
210.13
69.74
1071.42
376.56
0.62
22.86
68.34
38.24
23.79
367.53
0.96
401.22
96.63
52.83
230.90
1596.52
109.06
0.44
74.90
71.10
426.52
180.79
59.11

47
48
49
50
51

135
147
110
103

104.61
104.92
105.34
105.38
105.36

30.39
42.08
4.66
-2.38

30.39
42.08
4.66
2.38
16.31
MAD

923.45
1771.10
21.75
5.68
545.89
ECM

APE

APE`
Alpha

12.95%
29.75%
1.37%
14.40%
4.80%
13.58%
107.73%
45.62%
10.95%
5.37%
18.54%
12.18%
7.39%
45.46%
22.83%
0.75%
4.39%
8.61%
6.31%
4.47%
22.55%
0.95%
16.15%
8.62%
7.49%
17.07%
27.75%
11.11%
0.63%
7.66%
8.78%
16.52%
11.39%
7.93%

11.47%
22.93%
1.39%
16.82%
4.58%
15.72%
51.86%
83.89%
12.29%
5.10%
22.76%
13.87%
7.98%
31.25%
18.59%
0.76%
4.59%
7.93%
5.94%
4.68%
18.40%
0.94%
19.27%
9.44%
6.97%
14.58%
38.40%
10.00%
0.63%
8.29%
8.07%
19.79%
12.86%
7.34%

0.01

22.51%
28.63%
4.24%
2.31%
15.78%
MAPE

29.05%
40.11%
4.43%
2.26%
15.66%
MAPE`