Trimestre

2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

IT
72,046
80,605
81,942
334,511
85069
87936
90553
115463
95966
97401
99752
120673
100821
99282
100116
123258

Q
2,021,529
1,635,039
797,979
255,295
4,765,642
4,869,464
4,931,680
5,208,878
5,255,070
5,332,011
5,391,579
5139233.421
5,672,044
5,715,716
5,788,670
5106612.439

PX
0.036
0.049
0.103
1.310
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.018
0.019
0.023
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.024

PIB
11849858.862
12026488.219
12117907.965
12277658.829
12377241.651
12487352.206
12596209.616
12774242.722
12982273.416
13073211.738
13122853.614
13283052.493
13064766.755
13219587.267
13281983.562
13425236.255

POB
113.764977
114.114587
114.468031
114.818957
115.168163
115.511147
115.857912
116.202202
116.545271
116.884725
117.226029
117.564064
117.898203
118.229132
118.564077
118.896009

I
%IT
%Q
104160.869
105389.578
105862.815
106930.59
107471.035
108105.17
108721.186
109931.159 -0.65483048 19.4033687
111392.537
111847.05
111944.879
112985.653 0.04512268 -1.3370361
110813.96
111813.282
112023.674
112915.786 0.02142153 -0.63474412

Demanda Walmart

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2

Modelo lineal
Y
Q
2021529
1635039

X1
PX
0.0356393601
0.0492985183

X2
I
104160.86896409
105389.57845065

2010/3

797979

0.1026869128

105862.81478887

2010/4

255295

1.3102920151

106930.59012024

2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
Promedio

4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246
4242902.61624925

0.0178504806
0.0180586611
0.0183614914
0.0221665779
0.0182616026
0.0182672166
0.0185014446
0.0234807393
0.0177750737
0.0173700023
0.0172951645
0.0241369404
0.1080901376

107471.03477721
108105.17019626
108721.18613703
109931.15880885
111392.53703396
111847.050485
111944.87884598
112985.65259704
110813.96003127
111813.281916
112023.67443893
112915.78555004
109519.32644634

453.2599380364 -2461803.30829739 -45131723.844322

80.7741712368
723971.309118261 8870932.7001225
0.817
865828.109570735
#N/A
29.0214141741
13
#N/A
43512288916076.4 9745558099196.82
#N/A
Tc(0.05,13)
Tp1=
Tp2=

2.160
-3.400
5.611

El modelo es significativo
Y=-45131724-2461803.31X1+453.259938X2
Sustituyendo:
Qx=-45131724-2461803.31PX+453.259938I

zona 1
zona 3

X3
PY
11544406.22
11888559.02

MULTICOLINEALIDAD

11983672.31

r2(x1,x2)

0.076

12428077.77

r2(x1,x3)

0.014

12058637.89
12273190.27
12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57
12606819.188125

r2(x2,x3)

0.893

Modelo doble logaritmico

LN(Y)
LN(X1)
LN(X2)
14.5193647137 -3.33430463 11.5536918
14.3071772152 -3.00986125 11.56541903
13.5898375603 -2.2760706 11.56989933
12.4501750182 0.270250025 11.57993521
15.3769428184
15.3984944274
15.4111902588
15.4658750355
15.4747038829
15.4892390233
15.5003488499
15.4524144864
15.5510601046
15.5587301317
15.5714131168
15.4460468146

-4.02572485
-4.01412987
-3.99749967
-3.80916962
-4.00295464
-4.00264727
-3.98990647
-3.7515748
-4.02995816
-4.05301057
-4.05732832
-3.72401182

11.58497665
11.59085983
11.59654196
11.60760962
11.62081561
11.6248876
11.62576188
11.63501612
11.61560804
11.62458563
11.62646551
11.63439756

8.5341146124 -0.67401155 -86.3416102

1.5098787994 0.035861284 17.45960796
0.9800500427 0.135303438
#N/A
319.3152341133
13
#N/A
11.691420883 0.237991263
#N/A
El modelo doble logaritmico aplica maxima velocimilitud
TC(0.05,13)=
TP1=
TP2=

2.160368656
-18.7949645
5.652185206

El modelo es significativo
Qx=(-86.34161)(PX-0.6740116)(I8.5341146)
Demanda walmart trimestral

zona 1
zona 3

Px=

(Qx/Px)(Px/Qx)

(PxPx)= (-86.34161)(I8.534)(Px-0.674)
|Px|=

0.674

Inelastico; debe subir los precios

I =

0.674

Normal

XY=

Modelo log(X)
Y
2021529
1635039

LN(X1)
-3.3343046309
-3.0098612539

LN(X2)
11.5536918
11.565419034

797979

-2.2760706014

11.5698993348

255295

0.2702500247

11.5799352125

4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

-4.0257248475
-4.0141298713
-3.9974996651
-3.8091696241
-4.0029546418
-4.0026472668
-3.9899064652
-3.7515747995
-4.0299581583
-4.053010567
-4.0573283241
-3.7240118161

11.5849766463
11.5908598304
11.5965419588
11.6076096199
11.6208156117
11.6248875963
11.625761876
11.6350161215
11.6156080384
11.6245856333
11.6264655069
11.6343975592

37335324.3511203 -998808.172536218 -432462470.25693

6222019.89515885 147779.822123345 71948839.936664
0.9241149851
557568.382583733
#N/A
79.1559098694
13
#N/A
49216374498931.7 4041472516341.52
#N/A

TC(0.05,13)
TP1=
TP2=

2.1603686565
-6.7587587952
6222019.89515885

El modelo es significativo
Qx=-43262470.3-998808.1725LN(PX)+37335324.25I

Modelo log(Y)
LN(Y)
14.5193647137
14.3071772152

X1
X2
0.03563936 104160.869
0.049298518 105389.5785

13.5898375603

0.102686913 105862.8148

12.4501750182

1.310292015 106930.5901

15.3769428184
15.3984944274
15.4111902588
15.4658750355
15.4747038829
15.4892390233
15.5003488499
15.4524144864
15.5510601046
15.5587301317
15.5714131168
15.4460468146

0.017850481 107471.0348
0.018058661 108105.1702
0.018361491 108721.1861
0.022166578 109931.1588
0.018261603 111392.537
0.018267217 111847.0505
0.018501445 111944.8788
0.023480739 112985.6526
0.017775074 110813.96
0.017370002 111813.2819
0.017295165 112023.6744
0.02413694 112915.7856

0.0001464443
3.280278824E-005
0.865270043
41.7446528361
10.3221629607

-1.88957194 -0.79904877
0.29400831 3.602529403
0.351617054
#N/A
13
#N/A
1.607249185
#N/A

TC(0.05,13)
TP1=
TP2=

2.160368656
-6.42693379
4.464385767

El modelo es significativo
Qx=e(-0.799049-1.889572Px+0.000146444I)

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

Y
Q
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

X1
PX
0.0356393601
0.0492985183
0.1026869128
1.3102920151
0.0178504806
0.0180586611
0.0183614914
0.0221665779
0.0182616026
0.0182672166
0.0185014446
0.0234807393
0.0177750737
0.0173700023
0.0172951645
0.0241369404

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

Modelo lineal
Y
Q
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

X1
PX
0.0356393601
0.0492985183
0.1026869128
1.3102920151
0.0178504806
0.0180586611
0.0183614914
0.0221665779
0.0182616026
0.0182672166
0.0185014446
0.0234807393
0.0177750737
0.0173700023
0.0172951645
0.0241369404

-3585221.032

4630429.651

X2
I
104160.869
105389.5785
105862.8148
106930.5901
107471.0348
108105.1702
108721.1861
109931.1588
111392.537
111847.0505
111944.8788
112985.6526
110813.96
111813.2819
112023.6744
112915.7856

1240240.583
408485.119
0.374
1543443.451
8.3564
14
19906799384049.4 33351047631223.8

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2

Modelo lineal
Y
Q
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

X2
I
104160.868964093
105389.57845065
105862.814788873
106930.590120236
107471.034777207
108105.170196258
108721.186137033
109931.158808849
111392.537033957
111847.050484997
111944.878845977
112985.652597039
110813.960031265
111813.281916
112023.674438928
112915.785550043

529.214
102.819
0.654
26.492
34844120244415.4

-53716231.2624749
11264312.5450723
1146850.55605271
14
18413726770857.9

Y
Q
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464

X3
PY
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27

2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57

2.2778330107
0.6775473025
0.447
11.3022399662
23789710628496.7

-24473326.2906597
8549413.55378418
1450815.93759158
14
29468136386776.5

X3
PY
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27
12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57

Modelo doble log

LN(Y)
14.5193647137
14.3071772152
13.5898375603
12.4501750182
15.3769428184
15.3984944274
15.4111902588
15.4658750355
15.4747038829
15.4892390233
15.5003488499
15.4524144864
15.5510601046
15.5587301317
15.5714131168
15.4460468146

LN(X)
-3.3343046309
-3.0098612539
-2.2760706014
0.2702500247
-4.0257248475
-4.0141298713
-3.9974996651
-3.8091696241
-4.0029546418
-4.0026472668
-3.9899064652
-3.7515747995
-4.0299581583
-4.053010567
-4.0573283241
-3.7240118161

Modelo log(X)
Y
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

-0.772

12.341

-1429060.31046045

0.056
0.931
188.968
11.107

0.205
0.242
14
0.823

241762.385771993
0.714
34.940
38022682733650.7

LN(Y)
14.5193647137
14.3071772152
13.5898375603
12.4501750182
15.3769428184
15.3984944274
15.4111902588
15.4658750355
15.4747038829
15.4892390233
15.5003488499
15.4524144864
15.5510601046
15.5587301317
15.5714131168
15.4460468146

LN(X)
11.5536918
11.565419034
11.5698993348
11.5799352125
11.5849766463
11.5908598304
11.5965419588
11.6076096199
11.6208156117
11.6248875963
11.625761876
11.6350161215
11.6156080384
11.6245856333
11.6264655069
11.6343975592

Y
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

22.303
6.753
0.438
10.909
5.224

-243.760
78.356
0.692
14
6.705

57739436.7647002
11138524.0091715
0.657
26.8713691774
35015006777237.4

LN(Y)
14.5193647137
14.3071772152
13.5898375603
12.4501750182
15.3769428184
15.3984944274

LN(X)
16.2617115677
16.2910870687
16.2990556404
16.3354688071
16.3052917984
16.3229277886

Y
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464

15.4111902588
15.4658750355
15.4747038829
15.4892390233
15.5003488499
15.4524144864
15.5510601046
15.5587301317
15.5714131168
15.4460468146

16.3399647898
16.3778234229
16.3530129817
16.3669253683
16.3713206361
16.4114591338
16.3593471843
16.3827711517
16.3851884
16.4180739073

4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246

10.1344036636
4.6719781992
0.252
4.7053808672
3.0008706086

-150.6505490925
76.3816819633
0.7985943695
14
8.928541537

28705191.4751515
8446409.19683355
0.452
11.5498584354
24075303397740.7

X1

X1 PX

LN(X)
-3.3343046309
-3.0098612539
-2.2760706014
0.2702500247
-4.0257248475
-4.0141298713
-3.9974996651
-3.8091696241
-4.0029546418
-4.0026472668
-3.9899064652
-3.7515747995
-4.0299581583
-4.053010567
-4.0573283241
-3.7240118161

Modelo log(Y)
LN(Y)
14.51936471
14.30717722
13.58983756
12.45017502
15.37694282
15.39849443
15.41119026
15.46587504
15.47470388
15.48923902
15.50034885
15.45241449
15.5510601
15.55873013
15.57141312
15.44604681

X
0.0356393601
0.0492985183
0.1026869128
1.3102920151
0.0178504806
0.0180586611
0.0183614914
0.0221665779
0.0182616026
0.0182672166
0.0185014446
0.0234807393
0.0177750737
0.0173700023
0.0172951645
0.0241369404

-741651.03903854

-2.25253833

15.2786655189

882672.767818907
1043180.72265351
14
15235164281622.5

0.433333112
0.659
27.02095088
7.858034802

0.1427224123
0.5392704956
14
4.0713773439

LN(X)
11.5536918
11.565419034
11.5698993348
11.5799352125
11.5849766463
11.5908598304
11.5965419588
11.6076096199
11.6208156117
11.6248875963
11.625761876
11.6350161215
11.6156080384
11.6245856333
11.6264655069
11.6343975592

LN(Y)
14.51936471
14.30717722
13.58983756
12.45017502
15.37694282
15.39849443
15.41119026
15.46587504
15.47470388
15.48923902
15.50034885
15.45241449
15.5510601
15.55873013
15.57141312
15.44604681

X
104160.868964093
105389.57845065
105862.814788873
106930.590120236
107471.034777207
108105.170196258
108721.186137033
109931.158808849
111392.537033957
111847.050484997
111944.878845977
112985.652597039
110813.960031265
111813.281916
112023.674438928
112915.785550043

-665738352.958614
129246506.557297
1141516.54258822
14
18242840238035.9

0.000204743
6.2086E-005
0.437
10.87502792
5.215378676

-7.3881390815
6.8018272191
0.6925126853
14
6.7140334699

LN(X)
16.2617115677
16.2910870687
16.2990556404
16.3354688071
16.3052917984
16.3229277886

LN(Y)
14.51936471
14.30717722
13.58983756
12.45017502
15.37694282
15.39849443

X
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27

16.3399647898
16.3778234229
16.3530129817
16.3669253683
16.3713206361
16.4114591338
16.3593471843
16.3827711517
16.3851884
16.4180739073

15.41119026
15.46587504
15.47470388
15.48923902
15.50034885
15.45241449
15.5510601
15.55873013
15.57141312
15.44604681

12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57

-465053661.406107
138089458.789289
1443768.472177
14
29182543617532.5

8.0871E-007
0.000000373
0.251
4.700768517
2.998668477

4.8399577249
4.7065621937
0.7986928459
14
8.9307436688

X2

X2 I

X2

X3

X3 PY

X3

X4

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
PROMEDIO

QX
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.42088557
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.43910246
4242902.61624925

PY
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27
12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57
12606819.188125

II
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

PERIODO
2010-13

-2147937.84779722
979352.829133613
0.625
4.588272163
33299595803228

-689470.750051248
956964.38763151
1346991.63836391
11
19958251212045.3

-152956.241
871323.1453
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-7610283.45489068
1011896.89303472
0.962
19.1729965604
29252012437100.1

-3884047.52636025
728852.904826923
617593.735117029
3
1144266064967.41

-2309254.67
666304.0312
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

TC(0.05,3)

3.182

TP1=

8.669

zona 3

TP2=

-3.466

zona 1

PERIODO
2010-2011

PERIODO
2010-2012

TP3=

-5.329

zona1

TP4=

-7.521

zona 1

-3990135.61165468
1222465.02661983
0.769
5.8246568378
33496092187029.3

-1817915.00831396
1028464.3680141
1199035.12038498
7
10063796539416.4

-1080851.63
1001509.541
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

X5

X6

III
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

IV
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

2.653682494 -28641339.5911
0.661575364 8347301.777517
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

7.760517514 -88192333.0959
0.895205834 10573813.32951
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

Donde:
B0=
B1=
B2=
B3=
B4=
BA=

4.126689067 -45851573.2987
0.860592528 10422154.22487
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

BA>BO
Q

BA=-101995919

Bo=88192333

-88192333.095949 88192333.09595

Q1= -88192333.1+7.7X1

7.7605175137
-2309254.66718782
-3884047.52636025
-7610283.45489068
-101995918.744388 101995918.7444

Q2= -101995919+7.7X1

-13803585.6484

El PIB/HAB es mayor en todos los trimestres menos en el primero

Q2

Q1

Q1= -88192333.1+7.7X1
Q2= -101995919+7.7X1

XY=(Qx/Px)(Py/Px)
(Qx/Px)

(Py/Qx)

XY=

= -88192333.1+7.7X1

= -101995919+7.7X1

(Qx/Px)(Py/Px)

7.76

2.97127234
23.058611

Y
Trimestre
Q
2010/1
2021529
2010/2
1635039
2010/3
797979
2010/4
255295
2011/1
4765642
2011/2
4869464
2011/3
4931680
2011/4
5208878
2012/1
5255070
2012/2
5332011
2012/3
5391579
2012/4
5139233.420886
2013/1
5672044
2013/2
5715716
2013/3
5788670
2013/4
5106612.439102

X1
PX
0.0356393601
0.0492985183
0.1026869128
1.3102920151
0.0178504806
0.0180586611
0.0183614914
0.0221665779
0.0182616026
0.0182672166
0.0185014446
0.0234807393
0.0177750737
0.0173700023
0.0172951645
0.0241369404

X2
I
104160.869
105389.5785
105862.8148
106930.5901
107471.0348
108105.1702
108721.1861
109931.1588
111392.537
111847.0505
111944.8788
112985.6526
110813.96
111813.2819
112023.6744
112915.7856

X3
PY
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27
12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57

-1.4397442923 726.3218166199 -2076923.04 -56928282.6564

1.3850822699 274.759559138 811176.6308 14387559.9105
0.8321271599 863160.1838368
#N/A
#N/A
19.8275589896
12
#N/A
#N/A
44317300979739 8940546035534
#N/A
#N/A

TC=
TP1=
TP2=
TP3=

2.1788128297
-2.5603832266
2.6434815185
-1.0394648199

LN(Y)
LN(X)
LN(X2)
LN(X3)
14.51936471 -3.33430463 11.5536918 16.26171157
14.30717722 -3.00986125 11.56541903 16.29108707
13.58983756 -2.2760706 11.56989933 16.29905564
12.45017502 0.270250025 11.57993521 16.33546881
15.37694282 -4.02572485 11.58497665 16.3052918
15.39849443 -4.01412987 11.59085983 16.32292779
15.41119026 -3.99749967 11.59654196 16.33996479
15.46587504 -3.80916962 11.60760962 16.37782342
15.47470388 -4.00295464 11.62081561 16.35301298
15.48923902 -4.00264727 11.6248876 16.36692537
15.50034885 -3.98990647 11.62576188 16.37132064
15.45241449 -3.7515748 11.63501612 16.41145913
15.5510601 -4.02995816 11.61560804 16.35934718
15.55873013 -4.05301057 11.62458563 16.38277115
15.57141312 -4.05732832 11.62646551 16.3851884
15.44604681 -3.72401182 11.63439756 16.41807391

2.92307525 3.419552705 -0.69833748 -74.8683768

3.015837915 5.4896055 0.043840122 21.12788017
0.981498451 0.135619753
#N/A
#N/A
212.1981084
12
#N/A
#N/A
11.70869954 0.220712609
#N/A
#N/A

TC=
TP1=
TP2=
TP3=

2.17881283
-15.9291866
0.622914107
0.969241495

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4

Utilidad
bruta
15,804
17,655
17,929
22,671
18,862
19,025
19,763
26,048
11,002
22,094
22,705
28,613
21,606
21,855
22,542
27,620

Utilidad de
operacin
5,734
6,186
5,966
17,714
6,533
5,956
6,588
11,002
6,604
6,975
7,315
11,505
6,726
6,996
7,374
10,407

Gastos de
operacin
10,070
11,469
11,963
4,957
12,329
13,069
13,175
15,046
4,398
15,119
15,390
17,108
14,880
14,859
15,168
17,213

Modelo lineal

Modelo doble logaritmo

Y
Trimestre
Q
2010/1
2021529
2010/2
1635039
2010/3
797979
2010/4
255295
2011/1
4765642
2011/2
4869464
2011/3
4931680
2011/4
5208878
2012/1
5255070
2012/2
5332011
2012/3
5391579
2012/4
5139233.420886
2013/1
5672044
2013/2
5715716
2013/3
5788670
2013/4
5106612.439102

X
PMKT
10,070
11469
11963
4957
12329
13069
13175
15046
4398
15119
15390
17108
14880
14859
15168
17213

LN(Y)
14.519365
14.307177
13.589838
12.450175
15.376943
15.398494
15.41119
15.465875
15.474704
15.489239
15.500349
15.452414
15.55106
15.55873
15.571413
15.446047

285.2381828429 566663.7788378
110.2714381458 1476725.611142
0.323
1604358.24742
6.6909724985
14
17222331610372 36035515404901

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4

Modelo lineal
Y
Q
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878

X
PMKT
10,070
11469
11963
4957
12329
13069
13175
15046

1.2511728
0.4922925
0.3157159
6.4593397
3.7663056

X2
II
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

X3
III
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
PERIODO
2010-13

PERIODO
2010-11

PERIODO
2010-12

5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.420886
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.439102

4398
15119
15390
17108
14880
14859
15168
17213

0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

-1241971.66422
1181833.973614
0.4230358068
2.0163269787
2529976277929

-1410195.69221 -765026.6 299.24017

1189618.244925
1089215 116.5233
1671359.564637 #N/A
#N/A
11 #N/A
#N/A
0727870737344 #N/A
#N/A

55236.01687125
1845282.966634
0.6724097357
1.5394453276
0438753593252

-1348095.40368 -781190.51 598.27631

1852409.761367 1840551.8 244.63875
1821860.304635 #N/A
#N/A
3 #N/A
#N/A
9957524908816 #N/A
#N/A

-1659405.97389
1731874.524992
0.3633722922
0.9988593076
5828456615521

-1877658.12225 -1539601 343.16302

1810006.547113 1788327.3 174.10767
1990385.178478 #N/A
#N/A
7 #N/A
#N/A
7731432110924 #N/A
#N/A

delo doble logaritmo

LN(X)
9.217316
9.347403
9.3895738
8.508556
9.4197095
9.4779983
9.4860764
9.6188675
8.3889052
9.6237075
9.6414732
9.7473015
9.6077733
9.606361
9.6269432
9.7534202

3.269364
4.6333725
0.7635961
14
8.1631066

X4
IV
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

Modelo log(Y)
LN(Y)
14.5193647
14.3071772
13.5898376
12.450175
15.3769428
15.3984944
15.4111903
15.465875
15.4747039
15.489239
15.5003488
15.4524145
15.5510601
15.5587301
15.5714131
15.4460468

Modelo log(X)
X
10070
11469
11963
4957
12329
13069
13175
15046
4398
15119
15390
17108
14880
14859
15168
17213

0.0001441 13.178006
5.042E-005 0.6752257
0.3684467 0.7335851
8.1675656
14
4.3953521 7.53406

Y
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.4
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.4

2298224.5
1097215.3
0.2386065
4.3873388
1.27E+013

0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

1074739.8
1591894.6
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-3306810
3027584
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

948833.89
1933689
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

Conclucion:
La publicidad no afecta a la demanda

delo log(X)
LN(X)
9.217316
9.347403
9.3895738
8.508556
9.4197095
9.4779983
9.4860764
9.6188675
8.3889052
9.6237075
9.6414732
9.7473015
9.6077733
9.606361
9.6269432
9.7534202

-17369225
10326802
1701893.4
14
4.06E+013

o afecta a la demanda

DATOS DE P(x) E (x) PARA EL TRIOMESTRE 2015

P(x)=y
TIEMPO= x

Modelo lineal
Y
Trimestre
PX
2010/1
0.0356
2010/2
0.0493
2010/3
0.1027
2010/4
1.3103
2011/1
0.0179
2011/2
0.0181
2011/3
0.0184
2011/4
0.0222
2012/1
0.0183
2012/2
0.0183
2012/3
0.0185
2012/4
0.0235
2013/1
0.0178
2013/2
0.0174
2013/3
0.0173
2013/4
0.0241
2014/1
0.0010
2014/2
0.0009
2014/3
0.0008
2014/4
0.0008
2015/1
0.0007
Rational Function:
y=(a+bx)/(1+cx+dx^2)
Coefficient Data:
a=
-4.78E-04
b=
8.34E-04
c=
-5.60E-01
d=
7.77E-02

X
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
PERIODO
2010-13

PERIODO
2010-11

PERIODO

-0.0192974713
0.0172846576
0.0817542152
1.2464625824
0.126613415

0.2721186433
0.1671346842
0.3187133376
14
1.4220946816

Y
PX
0.0356
0.0493
0.1027
1.3103
0.0179
0.0181
0.0184
0.0222
0.0183
0.0183
0.0185
0.0235
0.0178
0.0174
0.0173
0.0241

X
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

X4
II
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0.3970278543
0.216072568
0.350
1.4833658407
0.5426652867

-0.026503754 -0.0292033236
0.2191293207 0.197650748
0.3024209603
#N/A
11
#N/A
1.0060428098
#N/A

0.9060118003
0.4982432079
0.591
1.0857886103
0.841500094

0.2114642312 0.095776144
0.4668750967 0.4469988735
0.4401740625
#N/A
3
#N/A
0.5812596158
#N/A

2010-12

PERIODO
2011-13

0.5611319237
0.300693325
0.430
1.3198082132
0.6476840196

0.1113123312 0.0489807489
0.2926159309 0.2876606462
0.3502645476
#N/A
7
#N/A
0.8587967729
#N/A

0.0048072781
0.0004300061
0.975
39.5336020621
3.435175680E-005

0.0004690824 0.0002545481
0.0004254717 0.0004300061
0.0004660809
#N/A
4
#N/A
8.68926E-007
#N/A

TC(0.05,4)=
TP1=
TP2=
TP3=
TP4=
PERIODO
2012-13

PERIODO
2011-13

2.7764451052
0.8669323174
0.5919638511
1.1024996161
11.179556663

ZONA
ZONA
ZONA
ZONA

2
2
2
3

0.004548684
-8.24987E-005 -0.0011134458
0.0033948423
0.0035176927 0.0026583109
0.502
0.0029860803
#N/A
0.7546984952
3
#N/A
2.691760573E-005 0.00002675
#N/A
0.0040616533
0.001735004
0.559

-0.000141883 -0.0008633787
0.0017731804 0.0015208392
0.0020454148
#N/A

2.2217307959
7 #N/A
3.71804124211E-005 2.928605E-005 #N/A
PERIODO
2010-12

0.5258116973
0.3667901737
0.573
1.3430930027
0.8491310207

0.1841513493 0.0919948587
0.4115152426
0.401095444
0.3975614945 #N/A
4 #N/A
0.6322205677 #N/A

Modelo doble logaritmo

Modelo LN(Y)

LN(Y)
LN(X)
-3.334304631
0
-3.009861254 0.693147181
-2.276070601 1.098612289
0.2702500247 1.386294361
-4.025724848 1.609437912
-4.014129871 1.791759469
-3.997499665 1.945910149
-3.809169624 2.079441542
-4.002954642 2.197224577
-4.002647267 2.302585093
-3.989906465 2.397895273
-3.751574799 2.48490665
-4.029958158 2.564949357
-4.053010567 2.63905733
-4.057328324 2.708050201
-3.724011816 2.772588722

LN(Y)
-3.33430463
-3.00986125
-2.2760706
0.27025002
-4.02572485
-4.01412987
-3.99749967
-3.80916962
-4.00295464
-4.00264727
-3.98990647
-3.7515748
-4.02995816
-4.05301057
-4.05732832
-3.72401182

Modelo LN(X)
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

-0.625910871 -2.28812824
0.3381987283 0.697928202
0.1965641163 1.033671196
3.4251614644
14
3.6597033085 14.95866599

X5
III
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

X6
IV
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

-0.018068447 0.199499499
0.0168838757 0.20689925
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
-0.088842475 0.293272344
0.0778125161 0.389062581
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-0.11158817
0.05497271
0.22739115
4.12042412
4.23365245

-2.53949449
0.53156085
1.01364677
14
14.3847169

-0.044356431 0.245699305
0.0309593046 0.254670469
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
5.39949E-005 0.017476432
6.22827E-005 0.000621788
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

0.000348112 0.014754711
0.0004925755 0.006695223
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
0.0001886544 0.016875461
0.0001785725 0.002264423
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

#N/A
#N/A

-0.0918879615 0.661271772
0.0531263894 0.466182175
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

Modelo LN(X)
Y
0.03563936
0.04929852
0.10268691
1.31029202
0.01785048
0.01805866
0.01836149
0.02216658
0.0182616
0.01826722
0.01850144
0.02348074
0.01777507
0.01737
0.01729516
0.02413694

LN(X)
0
0.69314718
1.09861229
1.38629436
1.60943791
1.79175947
1.94591015
2.07944154
2.19722458
2.30258509
2.39789527
2.48490665
2.56494936
2.63905733
2.7080502
2.77258872

-0.08766084
0.10626849
0.04635137
0.68045937
0.07178474

0.2761352
0.21930235
0.32479921
14
1.47692336

Modelo lineal
Y
Trimestre
PY
2010/1
11544406.22
2010/2
11888559.02
2010/3
11983672.31
2010/4
12428077.77
2011/1
12058637.89
2011/2
12273190.27
2011/3
12484079.99
2011/4
12965770.74
2012/1
12648042.04
2012/2
12825236.23
2012/3
12881730.64
2012/4
13409301.07
2013/1
12728411.57
2013/2
13030080.82
2013/3
13061615.86
2013/4
13498294.57
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2015/1

Modelo doble logaritmo

X
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

LN(Y)
16.2617115677
16.2910870687
16.2990556404
16.3354688071
16.3052917984
16.3229277886
16.3399647898
16.3778234229
16.3530129817
16.3669253683
16.3713206361
16.4114591338
16.3593471843
16.3827711517
16.3851884
16.4180739073
17.143874772
18.8917064329
27.8739420141
159.2181625979
1076044.335526

105845.0678088
12767.99495964
0.831
68.7220088073
3809080649015

11707136.11175
123460.6354655
235430.1943217
14
775983269577

0.0514311621
0.0058710598
0.846
76.7396231639
0.0247100465

TC(0.05,14)=
TP=

2.145
8.2898738716

TC(0.05,14)=
TP=
Modelo significativo

oble logaritmo

Modelo LN(Y)

LN(X)
0
0.693147181
1.098612289
1.386294361
1.609437912
1.791759469
1.945910149
2.079441542
2.197224577
2.302585093
2.397895273
2.48490665
2.564949357
2.63905733
2.708050201
2.772588722
2.833213344
2.890371758
2.944438979
2.995732274
3.044522438

LN(Y)
16.26171157
16.29108707
16.29905564
16.33546881
16.3052918
16.32292779
16.33996479
16.37782342
16.35301298
16.36692537
16.37132064
16.41145913
16.35934718
16.38277115
16.3851884
16.41807391

16.25024626
0.012115889
0.017944318
14
0.00450798

0.008449611 16.27701766
0.001019084 0.009854073
0.831
0.01879098
68.74695749
14
0.024274613 0.004943413

2.145
8.760115477

TC(0.05,14)=
2.145
TP=
8.291378503

nificativo

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Modelo LN(X)
Y
11544406.22
11888559.02
11983672.31
12428077.77
12058637.89
12273190.27
12484079.99
12965770.74
12648042.04
12825236.23
12881730.64
13409301.07
12728411.57
13030080.82
13061615.86
13498294.57

LN(X)
0
0.6931471806
1.0986122887
1.3862943611
1.6094379124
1.7917594692
1.9459101491
2.0794415417
2.1972245773
2.302585093
2.3978952728
2.4849066498
2.5649493575
2.6390573296
2.7080502011
2.7725887222

639750.244136532
76318.0248025899
0.834
70.269469845
3823330220985.78

11380423.5636883
157494.683871677
233258.547172413
14
761733697605.791

TC(0.05,14)=
TP=

2.145
8.3826887002

Modelo lineal
Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2015/1

Modelo doble logaritmo

Y
I
104160.87
105389.58
105862.81
106930.59
107471.03
108105.17
108721.19
109931.16
111392.54
111847.05
111944.88
112985.65
110813.96
111813.28
112023.67
112915.79

X
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

568.54751
55.211013
0.883
106.04302
109903730

104686.67
533.86509
1018.0408
14
14509698

LN(Y)
11.553692
11.565419
11.569899
11.579935
11.584977
11.59086
11.596542
11.60761
11.620816
11.624888
11.625762
11.635016
11.615608
11.624586
11.626466
11.634398
12.097189
13.200554
18.672762
88.265925
226993.82

LN(X)
0
0.6931472
1.0986123
1.3862944
1.6094379
1.7917595
1.9459101
2.0794415
2.1972246
2.3025851
2.3978953
2.4849066
2.5649494
2.6390573
2.7080502
2.7725887
2.8332133
2.8903718
2.944439
2.9957323
3.0445224

0.0320304 11.542128
0.0026508 0.0054703
0.913
0.0081018
146.00875
14
0.0095839 0.000919
TC(0.05,14)= 2.1447867
TP=
12.083408
Modelo significativo

Modelo LN(Y)

Modelo LN(X)

LN(Y)
11.553692
11.565419
11.569899
11.579935
11.584977
11.59086
11.596542
11.60761
11.620816
11.624888
11.625762
11.635016
11.615608
11.624586
11.626466
11.634398

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Y
104160.87
105389.58
105862.81
106930.59
107471.03
108105.17
108721.19
109931.16
111392.54
111847.05
111944.88
112985.65
110813.96
111813.28
112023.67
112915.79

LN(X)
0
0.6931472
1.0986123
1.3862944
1.6094379
1.7917595
1.9459101
2.0794415
2.1972246
2.3025851
2.3978953
2.4849066
2.5649494
2.6390573
2.7080502
2.7725887

0.0052203
0.0005098
0.882
104.84289
0.0092656

11.559157
0.0049299
0.0094009
14
0.0012373

3477.2748
296.01951
0.908
137.98674
112953297

102853.42
610.88451
904.75455
14
11460131

Trimestre
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2011/1
2011/2
2011/3
2011/4
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2015/1

Y
X
Q
T
2021529
1635039
797979
255295
4765642
4869464
4931680
5208878
5255070
5332011
5391579
5139233.4
5672044
5715716
5788670
5106612.4

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

R2(YX)=

0.6064957

LN(Q)
14.5193647

LN(T)

LN(Q)
0

14.3071772 0.69314718 R2(YX)=

14.5193647
0.39226412

14.3071772

13.5898376 1.09861229

13.5898376

12.450175 1.38629436

12.450175

15.3769428 1.60943791

15.3769428

15.3984944 1.79175947

15.3984944

15.4111903 1.94591015

15.4111903

15.465875 2.07944154

15.465875

15.4747039 2.19722458

15.4747039

15.489239 2.30258509

15.489239

15.5003488 2.39789527

15.5003488

15.4524145 2.48490665

15.4524145

15.5510601 2.56494936

15.5510601

15.5587301 2.63905733

15.5587301

15.5714131

2.7080502

15.5714131

15.4460468 2.77258872

15.4460468

Q
1
2 R2(YX)=

LN(T)
2021529

0.40621653

1635039 0.69314718

797979 1.09861229

255295 1.38629436

4765642 1.60943791

4869464 1.79175947

4931680 1.94591015

5208878 2.07944154

5255070 2.19722458

10

5332011 2.30258509

11

5391579 2.39789527

12

5139233.42 2.48490665

13

5672044 2.56494936

14

5715716 2.63905733

15

5788670

16

2.7080502

5106612.44 2.77258872

R2(YX)=

0.65409003

Efecto integral de la elasticidad

X1
pX=
Qx(Y1),2013

5106612.4

0.674

XA

XBx

%X

%Y1

0.0241

0.001

-96.99%

-65.37%

Px el ultimo Ao

Cambio Porcentual en Q

X2

X3
I=
0.674

Y=I

XA

XBI

%X

%Y2

XY=

112,915.7856

226993.819

101.03%

68.09%

23.05861104
Y=Py

Y3
XA

XBY

13,498,294.5700

1076044.34

%X
-92.03%

%Y3

%YT

-2122.04% -2119.33%

Toneladas
Qx(Y2),2015
4024355.17

Proyeccin conjunta de las elasticidades