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An Abortive Revolution? 1 ‘When Hosni Mubarak was president of Egypt, I never, tobe honest, steached any imporance this ole in governing Egypt ns ey sa sed bythe many referencesin newspapers aed again i oe and Soregn commentaries, othe fact that he did this or refsed to da that that be favored certain couse of action and ha his ministers ad sds pot ino ff or that he died another esa so thee i ines and aides droped it Yes, perhaps he did havea oe ip at ‘eo suchas sending an Fypean abso toon county ete then ‘nother (suming the wo counties were ony of mades importance) ‘appointing rend of his sonora relative of his wie comme fob "hey wanted but I'm confident tthe had noinfene ove the poe ‘ant mater tht made up Egypt’ foreign ae domestic policy or even in sch eer ates That beats I formed certain impresson of the man when he appeced on the pli scene as vice present, an inpeeson dee from th many stories and reports sour hi afer be assumed hat post ‘ion ad before he took office. The stores and repens aleonsient ith one anaes, concerned hisleel of neligence, he limits of ners td his hobbies, what di and didnot attrac hs actention andthe a rising comments he mode when he was ving a facery ot mecting a lmporane wold gure. Al ofchem painted coherent pete ding co the conelasion that Tachedabour beveled bites They ag, the same wn edo acertain conception ofthe enent to whith bender stood is el stature and the limits of his ables. A complete pare ‘ookshape, ot onto ispee rex atication-iitd ais sda ited rasp ofthe ray of thane aie, My thoughts were simlr with respect this younger son Gama There 8 of couse the dfereneof ae, upbringing, nd education that ‘ach ciel and he eieeace beeen the sia whic exh row op at I concluded that he sos abies were bound tbe limited ure andthe alle stateot comments, andides abated thm i nat really orgnstewithhim. There were peeplewho hada definite ares in conveying an realistic image of Gama adhe had Been prompted aed trina o perform patel ets nd make etn statements hugh t wasn allan easy tsk prompt and rin him “There wee certain figures who were often refered to a having eal ‘acecv authori with postions cer inthe secetatitof he lng Paty oF she presidency and some of thet ames may not have beck ‘wey known or ven mentioned in che newspapes had mo dobsta ‘tis rou of people had mch restr infance than the present os son, but I ended consider them tobe arying ot pics athe chan ‘aking them, and I silleewe that I was right So who wee the people ‘who wece ely making decisions nd deciding policy? ‘Thee wer of corse the ig businessmen, who hadan interest nce ng Egypsin poly reponal and fregn aswel s domes move tna «erin dtecton sha served their economic interests, Some of hem were ‘well town and beld plea postions, whl thers ttl appeared ia bli despite theirinpartance. In my epnion, and the opin af ay lather, thee people mere much close o bing the eller of gp But I would acach greater inportace to faces that were comply nknown ow, ven the held importa positon ia the vats aed ‘variously aed, secricy agencies These were the peopl sl oat ro cle ay rss of meapected problem tha nce aid atemon or incervenson any signcanebreach of ecu or theat othe teins ws hole These people must ave had great uence ove thse memoned «at, fom the president and his amy to those who ad gest wee and ag companies, bese ofthe crcial ably to prone the ee snd security inloding the security ef these major ten 266 Whatever Happened to the Beyptian Revolution? Feat waste case andi cers extenl powers had a lea interest {reserving the regime and maieaining Envi foreign and dome policy i was they must have ben working to ensue they had acess "othe ics that made che importa decisions sad must ave had rep, senate ine these various secu agencies Egyptians, of our, ‘busin constant contact with foreign powers and with the abit to wer stand quickly and serve che intrest of these power ‘That was how [conceived the station belare the evolution of Janay 25 Bxenseverl monster the eon eth evenswe sa unflé and alter wha was somesimes called procraination, fut degen, ‘ncomprehensblehehuio incompetence, or inexperience [sinned ‘ocho chat my conception ofthese of afar before the revoiion ‘ofJamsry 5 would serve wel describe what happened ater terval tion, sit seemed beter sued han anyother conception te expan the ‘mysteries we encountered day afer dyin the vation of pelt end dyin Egypt So‘ seems to me that she people who make important ‘nd tefl decisions are sil the very same peopl. Ther ave of couric been many changes in cveumstnces besa of the evolution and these peopl have toate into account he posit of use protest a the “hung in the mood of the vous sectors of Egyptian soviet they ‘esi in opinion, governed by the sume inportantconsidetations efor, foreign an domestic: foregnconsidratins connected with he Interests of certain coantse that are greatly interested in was happen, ingin Egy, especialy the United Stats an nk and domes eo. rations tat inde, fst, those sme feign ftrest and, second, the Incerests of big bsinssnen in Ep ‘This analysis beter able to explain many ofthe mysteriesof there son. Why, for example, was thee the artsned pretense tha the for ‘er resident and his family were abou o undergo jut ial and would swerve st pend for what the he done, whe daysand weeks passed with progress only ta nals pace toward iposing such «peal? And why the pretense thatthe money smgaled rad woud be returel 0 "yypt and then the mater was completly frgoste or steps were aken hen eas already co lt? Why this eniene toward ol tepime people (ox file hey ae called taking pat in the new lection Why tae Ingo lng estore eet in he stcts despite ts crucial importance ‘economic activi, ineling tours to rerun to normal aswel "simportanc or making people fel sf? Why has frm of censorship ‘guia been inposed on newspaper and television, with this writer banned and that roaster taken of the a? The exper are many and people have ated aking bout them constantly td al of them sggest hat te fill of Hes Mubarak s presen dao 8 limply the fl of it ‘gime. The reason is wat Tied to expla: che man himself wo in theenst important, nor were the other people who fave ben ase ton rial. The relly inportan people are xi their jibe and noone fas touched them, so they ae sllenercsing thir sae ol ome er ingthe same oli purposes, 2 ‘Thecalfora"saation government” fest made shor before the demon: stration nd svi that began om November 9, ot and then epested ‘nti te cad ofthat month what some people elle te second Faypian revolton, was widely weleomed by Faypins, excep of couse bythe people fom whom we wanted to save Faypt When this cond revoke ‘on egan, there were loud cal fora salaton goverment o epithe ovement of Essa Shara which, besides lng oun the county had slloned innocent reoatonres tobe besten anil, "Nevertheless, Task mye, "Who or whats the perso othe body thar we ar calling oo proce a aaton gorerament” If the appeal seit ar he military counel, which el he ultimate thot in ‘he ln then id we ely exec thie coun meet this demand? ‘The January 2 elution payed ts part o bringing the president ‘dow, abd the mitary coun then asumed poe then treed out thar the fist goverment formed by this caunll fe the president stepped down, the goverment of Ahmad Shik waa grest disappoint ment and people soon demande that the county bested from When ‘hemiltary come formed anew goverment, the oreroment of ssn ‘Sharaf things ony grew woe. The revoatonaries then demanded cw “shation goverment, but what ras thereto make people lee tha the salty council woul ke the ight choice this ime? “es the evlionaves had lesred that leston and this ime they ‘kena nation to asaationgoeenment, thi the military cour. til step down, because ly hs time there were serious suspicion that the council was not well iteniond nt chokes and was deliberately ‘choosing weak government for reasons that were unceat AST sought the esplination, I inevitably cemembored Karl Macc les analy ofthe ste Tn fc, Mar’ ides on the clas anal ofthe stat tl sf fr ‘exepresng what ishappening inthe word ncuding what hs happened nds happening a Egy, Yes, many Macusts have habit been over ‘crthoate about ujuifaly imposing class-based analy on histor ‘leven whetbermajoror miner Mar hinselé by vite ofthe cum. ‘ances of hit tine, dd nor grasp the deve effet the th phenomena Dfclonlsmand dependency wealdhaneon the eure ofeventin coun ties such a ou, sine Marc analy faced on indstily developed ounses tat esjyed poi independence Mare ako didnt ive ong, 2ough to wines the cnerhelminggromtiof he mide clas, 0 es the dss srg a confined othe eagle herwen the bones an the proletariat, «specially nds worker Ht al ths dest extce the pony that Mart cla based analy of the sate can throw af lghe on modern Egyptian histor: incling the Mubarak psd an the revolition against him Mary’ ideson the sobjec can Be summarized ths: itis serious non toimagine thatthe sate, ny stat, ean be npc toward social lass "Those in power in any country ia any age represent the cass ha cco nomll dominant, and they we the power ofthe sae, especialy the policed the amo preserve her economic domination, dt onze tha their el continues to enjoy its pegs by oppreng the clases tht are wronged and exploited and by enti any arempe by the dass trite up apis them ‘Marxand Maret repeatedly ridiculed those who sai ha the tate transcends class and who submited thei grievances to the tate i the hope tht their demands wold be answered. The eleged ve up thee rieges nly under pressure and by force. When they are eed wo gre lp cher privileges Because cey come uae great pressure, they never cease ying to recover thee postion of power whatever bral ac of once his requires: rom this perspective Ihave looked at che reign of Hossi Mubarak, vshich lasted hey yess a the evolution gain him on Jamsry 3, Femoral on Febnany saad then at the ten months tht followed dwn eh actions of che matary cael ringtone en months aed ‘he ntue of the goveraments et po replce Mubarak governments ound that his iporeane ites of Mane’ des throw a revealing ight lonthesecvents ‘rom his predeceso, Anwar a Sad, Hos Mubarak inher cas thar was amazing fr economic dominant ambitions, ts dete, nation wo acquis more wealth nd power, andthe extent to which wat vwling to engage i corptin to make ew economic at, Thi la ‘ms elatvely new in Exyprian history and didnot have strom inks 0 the cls that wat economical dome i the pvc ofthe mona Als Nase allowed itt emerge and grow onlin his ae year after ‘he devastating blow he received from abroad wth the defeat of 1963 Bet his cls ourshed and gave biz to a econd eneation nthe ce ‘of Anwar ala, who hin shazed the sae ialtns and apie tions The Open Door pole Sada launched helped ths caso gow aid ‘strengthen, a di thesopporeandencougenetthispaley and hiss scene rom external forces especially the Unite Sates nd nal hich Saat was happy’to become dependent These foreign power id ot ajet tothe corruption practice by thi ew ls and even eco aged the chs remain compe aa wy to underpin ts dependence. ‘Under Hosni Mabarak ths clase rectived yet more farsa was ven every posible opporanty to engage incorpo, though pe ‘is to et up seam investment companies, mane kos that Were ‘hen sige bros, cureney manipulation the appropriation of sate ‘med a pl dds, and gpd election ‘Ths class moiized ll he power ofthe tate to serve interes cuactly at Marx predited™the army the pol, the juicy mins ‘es, and prime ministers un when Mura’ lst governmeat took ofc under Prime Miter Ahmad Nai the powers he sate sted ‘in concert wih ths las in away hat was wnpeceented in Egype, We sora ual ad overcojanction beweea those with money and thee in power tothe extent tha miss mee srigndo people ws pate businesses and companies fll within that minis area of epi Jy A power contrvutontothiscenjnction came fom the econo poll and security support eat freien powers, the United Sates and Ite get his las that the regimes plenrmenon tat Ws unknown in Karl Mary’ tine, ndhence he veld (On Jenary 2,201, things apparently came wa ead The resentment and sence of injostice among the eppresed clases had peaked. Is tae that che thousands upon thousand who gathered inthe anes id not hong to one class. I fe, the relation ook sy spi i he ‘way peopl diferent cases coalesced uranic hae fhe class thathad corrupted and-wrecked the contr Alte cases tha ook ain he revolution he middleclass ad the aris sections of he lower clss—complained of notice and oppression and they al ame out no the squares leas no lnger aqucstinn, a twas ia Masa tie, lof strogle beeween the protarat an the capitals oer low mages and the appropriation of surplus value. Ie had become stage in which the exploitation of workers was combined withthe explitation of con sumer, in which the oppression of worker wet and in hand with he ‘oppression of peasants and withthe hardships imposed on the fais of sehoalehldren by the cost of pvt lessons, din which economic “eppression was combined we paycholgial oppression The face that che arian ia the revelation cane om a mat plicit of economic backround and had sued many diferent fos fof oppression may have Seen an inptat reason why the revoion tries Found it so ero reach consensus om specie objectives. But ‘here mas another importa thing that tthe fansay 2 evolutions sat isadvanrage, and that mas the assampion tit the sae wad ot ‘ake sides smong diferent classes and thatthe members of the mitary ‘coun who were finds and olesgue of herr te evoltonais ‘ranted depos, could ur ther backs overnight on the clas 0 which eylonged “The pasing of ney ewo yeas since the Jaa 25 revolution have been enough to realize ths mistake. The bt beatings and klgs chat ‘the revolutions fae on November 9, 201 and nthe following dye were also enough to show that the state cannot he eva haf Faypt ugeetly needs sahation that aaton wll ao come abou by pot ‘lng the request to she very las fom whone rae the est of the people tro tobe ved 5 Awol yar afi the eens of Janay 25.201, condoning kd vastly diferent fom wha anyone cold ave expected inthe er days ofthe revwution. On Fabry 1 01, che present was sees removed he plan ops the presidency ti son wis completely ban ned andso may beauifl hig scemed posible Bat very soon hings lgan to deteriorate, and the eevolasonais’ confidence nthe military council hich assumed the powers ofthe presides, pratually eroded, ‘The fie prime mine, chosen bythe military, ily proved great dsappointment and was soon vba sack of sympathy forthe re0- lation. When became cea that peuple wate him dsmsised, be was replaced by a man who had been a member ofthe plies committe of| ‘he ruling partyin Mabank’ era, which ws chaired by Mubaras on, Under then pine minster senerlmporant pores. sch ‘gnats and Saance,wereeneratedo people who occupied the sae ‘er siilaly important postions before the revoation This continued for Several mouths, and eres whea members ofthe cabinet wee replaced by ‘thers, no seal change was obzeredin the poe they implemented ‘Teople were amazing inclined 0 find excises fr sch slow change, swells forthe wrong decisions being nae, Pople wondered, "Cau be thar chore making the dvsion lak experience bec they haves teen powe ogg” Bu the expeeace ofthe 1952 evolution was ery ere: The army ofcers whole the eater evolution an tok power had jostas ele experience and were alo mach younger: Apparently igh hopes and the fear of wha the consequences might be the elution fled were sucenty stong cere, making people accept what in ‘othe circumstances they would have been rican aCe "Then came the referendum of March sor, when the people were ‘ake vote for api he amendnen of sll umber of ales intheexsig constcon, ope again sere tobe geninel happy to prtcipte, and long ques formed oat ofthe paling staions made ‘pofmenand women who ha never voted nay ection or reerendum fe their entre les Many were quit sured to hear some people sy thar otingno"inthereferadum amounted opposition othe fons antic inte old constitution dat tated est ee principles of Islamic lew were toe the main sure of lepton Tas nel awl ot (Cops stare vf somewhat inated elng ha grew song t increas evidence bil op oss tat che amiss a the sepa {hyo the Supreme Counel of the Ames Fores SCAP, "There aho seemed abe a eloctance o take the necesy steps so restore wand order inthe streets, casing shup deli in peoples Feling of scary andin the How of tuts othe county as welas an ‘nevtable dterioeton in economic cottons, In te ety dys afte the fil of Hosni Maura, i was announced that mesures were to Be taken to trace the public funds that had ben emberled or song ost fgype by the Mubarak fay and his entourage so that theses could be retire the state AS me pated, however, people hear ess ad lessof this mate andsome European goverment which wre allegedly invoed inthe tempt to recover te lly proesed sts, plc

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