Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
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Azucar Refinada Jose L. Valdez, Guadalupe Zaragoza, Julio Cesar
Azucar Refinada Jose L. Valdez, Guadalupe Zaragoza, Julio Cesar
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Imp
(Miles ton)
273.67
442.40
580.48
625.87
334.71
Exp
(Miles ton).
559.99
599.10
648.34
621.43
1123.18
Con Ap
miles ton
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
Con Ap
miles ton
51803.04
50934.02 Ao
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
48280.04
47657.99
47035.94
46413.89
45791.84
45169.79
44547.74
43925.69
43303.64
Con Ap
Precio Cons Precio Me Ru
miles ton
$/Kg
(PMR)($ / Kg)
51803.04
7.90
7.62
50934.02
6.90
7.98
48696.36
9.92
7.75
50426.07
13.11
12.39
48946.80
13.45
12.21
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Prod
52500.00
52000.00
51500.00
51000.00
50500.00
50000.00
49500.00
49000.00
48500.00
48000.00
47500.00
47000.00
2007
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Dem pot
Miles ton
48280.04
47657.99
47035.94
46413.89
45791.84
45169.79
44547.74
43925.69
43303.64
2008
2009
2010
AO
-622.05
1299844.64
0.56
Ao
52000.00
50000.00
AO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Dp (miles de toneladas)
52000.00
50000.00
48000.00
46000.00
44000.00
42000.00
40000.00
38000.00
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
2010
a de la Dem pot
2011
2020
2019
2018
2017
Dem pot
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ao
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Prod
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Imp
(Miles ton)
273.67
442.40
580.48
625.87
334.71
Exp
(Miles ton).
559.99
599.10
648.34
621.43
1123.18
Con Ap
(Miles ton)
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
Poblacion
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
Cons Perc
Kg/hab ao
501.68
477.45
452.78
448.91
425.00
Pob est
Cons Perc Prom
mill hab
Kg/hab ao
123.87
461.16
126.82
461.16
129.77
461.16
132.72
461.16
135.67
461.16
138.62
461.16
141.57
461.16
144.52
461.16
147.47
461.16
Dem Pot
miles ton
57124.07
58484.31
59844.73
61205.16
62565.58
63926.00
65286.42
66646.84
68007.27
Con Ap
Precio Cons
miles ton
$/Kg
51803.04
7.90
50934.02
6.90
48696.36
9.92
50426.07
13.11
48946.80
13.45
Ao
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2019
2020
66646.84
68007.27
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Pob est
Dem Pot est
mill hab
miles ton
123.87
50263.97
126.82
49154.16
129.77
47937.04
132.72
46612.59
135.67
45180.82
138.62
43641.73
141.57
41995.32
144.52
40241.59
147.47
38380.54
Ao
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Aos
Precio Me Ru
(PMR) ($ / Kg)
7.62
7.98
7.75
12.39
12.21
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
Aos
Tend CA,DP
Aos
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
Cons Ap
(miles ton)
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
Imp
Exp
Con Ap
Precio Cons
(Miles ton)
(Miles ton). (CA)(miles ton)
$/Kg
273.67
559.99
51803.04
7.90
442.40
599.10
50934.02
6.90
580.48
648.34
48696.36
9.92
625.87
621.43
50426.07
13.11
334.71
1123.18
48946.80
13.45
CA (miles ton)
Ao
Poblacion
52500
52000
51500
51000
50500
50000
49500
49000
48500
48000
47500
47000
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
Poblacin
Segn el comportamiento de los datos en la grfica, se ajustan a un modelo lineal; por lo tanto:
Modelo para estimar Demanda potencial
R2
0.39
b
69267.07
m
-175.29
Dem Pot
Dp=-175.29*Pob est+69267.07
Poblacin est
P=(2.95*ao)+(-5811.53)
Modelo obtenido de mtodo del
consumo percpita.
Ao
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Pob est
Dem pot est
mill hab
miles ton
123.87
47553.90
126.82
47036.79
129.77
46519.69
132.72
46002.58
135.67
45485.48
138.62
44968.37
141.57
44451.26
144.52
43934.16
147.47
43417.05
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Poblacion
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
123.87
126.82
129.77
132.72
135.67
138.62
141.57
144.52
147.47
Aos
Precio Me Ru
(PMR)($ / Kg)
7.62
7.98
7.75
12.39
12.21
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
ucar vs Poblacin
Con Ap vs Pob
112.33
115.17
0.39
69267.07
-175.29
Prod
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Precio
Imp
Exp
Con Ap
Precio Cons Precio Me Ru
(Miles ton) (Miles ton). (CA)(miles ton)
$/Kg
(PMR)($ / Kg)
273.67
559.99
51803.04
7.90
7.62
442.40
599.10
50934.02
6.90
7.98
580.48
648.34
48696.36
9.92
7.75
625.87
621.43
50426.07
13.11
12.39
334.71
1123.18
48946.80
13.45
12.21
Con Ap
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Aos
Pre Cons
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Precio Cons
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ao
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
Con Ap
Precio Cons
miles ton
$/Kg
51803.04
7.90
50934.02
6.90
48696.36
9.92
50426.07
13.11
Ln Con Ap
10.86
10.84
10.79
10.83
2011
48946.80
13.45
10.80
2.60
Ao
Dem Pot
Promedio
47848.72
47354.37
46873.16
46403.45
45944.00
45493.81
45052.09
44618.19
44191.57
Dem ot est
50000.00
40000.00
Dem Pot Poder
30000.00
Dem Pot
Exponencial
Dem Pot
Promedio
20000.00
10000.00
0.00
50000.00
48000.00
46000.00
44000.00
42000.00
40000.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ConAp,DemPot
2020
44191.57
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
Con Ap
Pre cons
y = 1.731x + 5.063
R = 0.8495
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2006
y = 1.731x - 3467.3
R = 0.8495
2007
2008
2009
Ao
2010
2011
2012
ConAp,
DemPot prom
miles ton
Prod
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Con Ap
miles ton
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
Imp
Exp
Con Ap
Precio Cons
(Miles ton) (Miles ton). (CA)(miles ton)
$/Kg
273.67
559.99
51803.04
7.90
442.40
599.10
50934.02
6.90
580.48
648.34
48696.36
9.92
625.87
621.43
50426.07
13.11
334.71
1123.18
48946.80
13.45
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
Precio Me Ru
(PMR)($ / Kg)
7.62
7.98
7.75
12.39
12.21
IDP
$/hab,ao Obtener manual (CA,IDP)
290.79 Obtener manual (IDP,Ao)
298.50
266.99
263.53
253.39
60000.00
50000.00
40000.00
y = -622.04x + 52027
R = 0.5541
60000.00
30000.00
IDP
50000.00
40000.00
IDP
30000.00
Con Ap
20000.00
10000.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
10000.00
Linear (IDP)
Aos
0.00
20000.00
y = -10.977x + 307.57
R = 0.8233
Serie de datos
Ao
6
7
8
9
10
11
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
IDP
$/hab,ao
241.69
230.71
219.73
208.75
197.77
186.79
0.00
2018
2019
2020
Ao
Con Ap
miles ton
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
48294.76
47672.72
47050.68
46428.64
45806.6
45184.56
44562.52
43940.48
43318.44
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
175.81
164.83
153.85
44562.52
43940.48
43318.44
307.57
12
13
14
54000
52000
50000
48000
46000
44000
42000
40000
38000
Aos
Ao
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Tend Hist
miles ton
48280.04
47657.99
47035.94
46413.89
45791.84
Cons Per
Con Per est
miles ton
miles ton
57124.07
50263.97
58484.31
49154.16
59844.73
47937.04
61205.16
46612.59
62565.58
45180.82
Poblacin
miles ton
47553.90
47036.79
46519.69
46002.58
45485.48
Precio
miles ton
47848.72
47354.37
46873.16
46403.45
45944.00
Ingr Perc
miles ton
48294.76
47672.72
47050.68
46428.64
45806.6
2017
2018
2019
2020
45169.79
44547.74
43925.69
43303.64
63926.00
65286.42
66646.84
68007.27
43641.73
41995.32
40241.59
38380.54
44968.37
44451.26
43934.16
43417.05
45493.81
45052.09
44618.19
44191.57
45184.56
44562.52
43940.48
43318.44
Al analizar los datos obtenidos con los diferentes modelos nos damos cuenta de que al aplicar el mtodo de la poblacin
estimada, los datos que se obtienen para la demanda potencial son altos comparados con los obtenidos con los dems
modelos por lo que se concluye eliminar toda la serie de datos de la emanda potencial que fueron arrojados por el mtodo
de la poblacin estimada y se obtiene una demanda potencial promedio con los datos de los otros mtodos.Dicha desicin
fue tomada pensando en tener un menor margen de error de la demanda real.
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
60000.00
y = -622.04x + 52027
R = 0.5541
50000.00
40000.00
30000.00
20000.00
10000.00
y = -10.977x + 307.57
R = 0.8233
0.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Para DemPot
1299844.64
-622.0425
0.55406987
I
m
r2
2029.59757
Dem Pot
promedio
47994.36
47430.47
46869.87
46312.14
45756.98
45204.13
44653.40
44104.63
43557.68
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Prod
(Miles ton)
52089.36
51090.72
48764.22
50421.62
49735.27
Imp
Exp
(Miles ton) (Miles ton).
273.67
559.99
442.40
599.10
580.48
648.34
625.87
621.43
334.71
1123.18
Con Ap
Precio Me Ru ln PMR
miles ton
(PMR)($ / Kg)
51803.04
7.62
50934.02
7.98
48696.36
7.75
50426.07
12.39
48946.80
12.21
Moldelo
Lneal
Exponencial
Poder
Logaritmico
Con Ap
miles ton
51803.04
50934.02
48696.36
50426.07
48946.80
ln Con Ap
2.03
2.08
2.05
2.52
2.50
10.86
10.84
10.79
10.83
10.80
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.11 Debido a que el modelo logaritmico tiene mayor R, se escoge este modelo
52500
52000
51500
51000
50500
50000
49500
49000
48500
48000
47500
47000
y = -1647ln(x) + 51739
R = 0.6277
2.03
2.08
2.05
2.52
2.50
LN PMR
Figura : Tendencia del consumo aparente respecto al LN del precio medio rural.
Tendencia PMR
14.00
PMR ($/kg)
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2007
2008
2009
Aos
Figura: Grfica de la tendencia del PMR para estimar el PMRde aos fut
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Precio Me Ru
(PMR)($ / Kg)
7.62
7.98
7.75
12.39
12.21
Serie de datos
Ao
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Ao
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Prec Me Ru
(PMR) $ / Kg
2741.83
2743.19
2744.55
2745.91
2747.27
2748.63
2749.99
2751.35
2752.71
Prec Me Ru
Con Ap, of Pot
(PMR) $ / Kg miles ton
7.62
51803.04
7.98
50934.02
7.75
48696.36
12.39
50426.07
12.21
48946.80
2741.83
39210.46
2743.19
39209.64
2744.55
39208.82
Of Pot
miles ton
39210.46
39209.64
39208.82
39208.01
39207.19
39206.37
39205.56
39204.74
39203.93
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2745.91
2747.27
2748.63
2749.99
2751.35
2752.71
39208.01
39207.19
39206.37
39205.56
39204.74
39203.93
PMR ($/Kg)
PMR
Aos
Figura: Grfica que muestra la tendencia del PMR estimado para aos futuros
OF POT
20000
10000
0
Aos
Figura: Grfica que muestra la tendencia de la oferta potencial estimada para aos futuros.
Pob
Mill hab
103.26
106.68
107.55
112.33
115.17
1647ln(x) + 51739
R = 0.6277
PIB
Mill $
30027
31844
28715
29602
29183
Tendencia PMR
y = 1.359x + 5.513
R = 0.7519
(PMR)($ / Kg)
Linear ((PMR)($ / Kg))
2010
2011
OF POT
20000
10000
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Aos
2017
2018
2019
2020
Dem Pot
Of Pot